Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

Quoting Archer

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One of the group members asked Jacko why he would share his method so freely. The concern was that if everyone used the method it would not be as effective. Jacko replied (I am paraphrasing) Most traders will not follow the method. They will add a bunch of indicators and trade shorter time-frames, trade against the trend and in the end their system will not reflect the core of the method he is teaching. Therefore, he had no concern sharing the method. He knew most traders would lack the discipline to follow it over the long term.

Turns out he is not only generous with his time and talent reading the market. He also reads people pretty well.

Trade the plan and you will do just fine. Thanks for your help Jacko.

Archer

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Quoting jedsman

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I'd take a look at the calender page first before making any trades this week. Could be a choppy ride!!

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Quoting seanchicago

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Well said. Henceforth you will be known as the knighted, Sir Dudu!

-Sean

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Quoting Impetus

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Jacko's point about trading the news was to do with brokers, and I was wondering whether this is the same for all of you, or is it also to do with increased movement, or unpredictability around that time? If there is a big news announcement coming up, how long before and after do you stay out?

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Quoting MPP

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If we take a fib from the low of 26 feb to the highest price, we find that the 1.5400 area has a 50% fib, why would we consider this a potential fib low - well this was the first drop when price broke away from the weekly TL and chased the high price with some mean aggression.

we also find that the S&R is good - true S&R can be found by multiple touches of the same area, along with a the candle formation supporting the reasoning ie we have 2 bull candles and 2 bear candles with long wicks, this shows that this area is a good foundation for either support or resistance.

So looks good to me - watch the PA before trading to see if it holds.

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Quoting Archer

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One of the group members asked Jacko why he would share his method so freely. The concern was that if everyone used the method it would not be as effective. Jacko replied (I am paraphrasing) Most traders will not follow the method. They will add a bunch of indicators and trade shorter time-frames, trade against the trend and in the end their system will not reflect the core of the method he is teaching. Therefore, he had no concern sharing the method. He knew most traders would lack the discipline to follow it over the long term.

Turns out he is not only generous with his time and talent reading the market. He also reads people pretty well.

Trade the plan and you will do just fine. Thanks for your help Jacko.

Archer

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Quoting seanchicago

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I would also like to point out, that even if 10% of traders traded exactly Jacko's rules it would actually help rather than hinder the method.

Imagine, for example, if all these traders decided to buy at 1.5400. That would most likely cause a nice bounce from that point allowing the TSL to be moved up and increase the odds that the trade would be profitable.

-Sean

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Quoting SBrickman

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"i think there are a few who have hit the nail on the head by mentioning some newer traders who are trying to introduce foreign methods to a method that has obviously been highly successful for so long, without actually trading Jackos way first."

I wasn't my intention to introduce a "foreign method". All I did was post charts that had the TREND displayed as arrows for each time frame as opposed to numerous charts with trendlines. But I guess I committed BLASPHEMY by using a computer program.

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Quoting MPP

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the same could be said for the big guns hunting stops though. they would know were we all are!!!!!!! swings and round abouts guys and girls

i wonder how many FF members have looked at this thread, and how many are trading it or close to it, % wise i would say less then 1% trade it, think back and look at the names of the members that have posted here!! so is the system big or small??

gets you thinking. 1 day maybe one of us will see the trading desk at the big guns house - whats in there window (chart) do think it has watch here Jacko's trading - it's gonna hurt our acounts. LOL

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Quoting Archer

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One of the group members asked Jacko why he would share his method so freely. The concern was that if everyone used the method it would not be as effective. Jacko replied (I am paraphrasing) Most traders will not follow the method. They will add a bunch of indicators and trade shorter time-frames, trade against the trend and in the end their system will not reflect the core of the method he is teaching. Therefore, he had no concern sharing the method. He knew most traders would lack the discipline to follow it over the long term.

Turns out he is not only generous with his time and talent reading the market. He also reads people pretty well.

Trade the plan and you will do just fine. Thanks for your help Jacko.

Archer

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Quoting priceaction

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I trade with Jacko and am up to date on what his thoughts are since his last post on the blog (http://waynejackson888.blogspot.com/) at 2.30am NY time Thursday May 1. I know that he uses support lines, round numbers and the 50 fib when in a dip, to buy. Additionally fundamentals such as the current ECB sentiment is also being considered. Right now, focus is on identifying the next bull move.

Which leads me on to saying how interesting it is that not since early February, have we seen price challenge the 4hr 200 ema from the underside, whilst price flies high above the 200 ema on the daily, weekly and monthly charts. TEB63 spotted this latest scenario in the WSS thread as he loves playing the 200ema way. Note also that the market has not been seen to be this oversold on the daily chart since that bull move in February and toward the end of March.

An important observation I've just made is that on each of the five occasions since June 2007, that price convincingly broke below the 4hr 200 ema, it has done so by 150 to 250 pips. Scroll back further on your chart and it occurs even more.

Could we be nearing the correction for the continuation of the uptrend? With end of month news out of the way, could the fact that no further fed rate cuts sit on the horizon, be enough to allow the Euro to recommence its journey north?

Bloomberg says; "Fed May Take Breather After Seven Rate Cuts, Emergency Loans". Could the truth be that the Fed has no breath left?

Since last Thursday, price has flirted around the 200 ema (respecting 1.55 although it has been pierced by 4 pips today) as if it's waiting for a green light to get back on track. Let's remember that today is May Day and that London is the only European market trading today, although the Euro has lost over a big figure in the first half of the London session. Perhaps while the European Mice are away, the Fat London Rats will play. Are they taking out stops at 1.55 before filling their boots for the March north?

Trade The News reports; "Dealer chatter focusing on a 1.5500 option barrier this session - Chatter that the option has a large payout if 'not touched' before its expiration".

So ...

- Will 1.55 remain "not touched" before option expiration?
- Will the 4hr 200 ema scenario repeat itself as shown in the chart below and become the trigger for another bull move; after price has dropped 150-250 pips below it?
- Or is a big round figure of 1.50 on the cards; perhaps after the said option expiration? (that's an EXCEPTIONALLY large 650 pips below the 4hr 200 ema fellas)
- Or ????????

All good food for thought on a quiet May Day in Prague.

Rob

P.S. I recently bought the books that Jacko recommended (http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1425831&postcount=10). You can also find some of then freely available in PDF format here (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jesse_Lauriston_Livermore#His_book)

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Quoting jacko

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Hi Archer,

I can see from the last couple of pages that there seems to be a bit of confusion about the method.

I will outline it here again, including the revisions to the strategy (which were caused by the significant increase in volatility in the Euro over the last six months).

I am a Trend Trader

1. buy/ sell ONLY in the direction of the major trend and
2. buy/sell on dips.(Use support lines to guide you as to price...also "round" numbers ... I also use the 50% Fib ratio..)
3. bank your profits

How do you know what the trend is?

DETERMINE THE TIME FRAME THAT YOU WANT TO TRADE.

1. If the graph on the chart starts in the bottom left hand corner and ends in the top right hand corner, the market is going UP.
2. If the graph on the chart starts in the top left hand corner and ends in the bottom right hand corner, the market is going DOWN.

Anti-Hedge Method

That strategy is:
1. you put a trade on and you put a Trailing Stop Loss of 100 pips (this has been raised from 50 pips due to increased volatility in EUR/USD pair)
2. the market goes against you (horrors....I was wwwwwrong !! )
3. let the market continue...it will probably go say another 30 - 100 pips past your stop...who knows ???
4. WHEN IT MOVES 50 PIPS BEYOND YOUR STOP LOSS, PUT AN ORDER IN AT THE EXACT SAME FIGURE AS YOUR STOP LOSS (if you were originally "long" then place a "long" order) This ensures that when the market comes back, as it invariably does, you have a DEFINITE order in place to put you back in the market where you were originally...and you are now in the same direction as the market is moving..
5. FINALLY, the market comes back around and starts to head in the opposite direction
6. The market picks you back up on its new direction
7. The A-H trade also has a 100 pip Trailing Stop Loss. It is also a one-time trade. There is no A-H on an A-H trade


I hope that that clarifies the situation



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Quoting Khornate8

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Just my thoughts. Considering the sheer amounts traded in forex each day (2 trillion dollars I've heard bandied around) I don't think it would be relevant if 100% of people at FF traded used this method, it probably wouldn't effect the price overly or come into the reasonings behind the big players. Another trader (not related to forex) I read who is a trend based equity trader stated that we are but the flea that rides the elephant. It wasn't our job to attempt to move the market, only to go along for the ride. This method is basically what the big boys do, trade with the greater trend so that allows us to be the flea.

The thing with the institutional trader is that they can move the market and go stop hunting. This therefore is where it affects us using this method as one of the keys to it is the defined TSL, whether it be 50 or 100 pips or whatever. I find it amazing that the price can fall exactly 100 pips and then move back to where it was only hours before, thereby taking out all the TSLs of us fleas. At the same time it has also taken out a lot of other method's stops(we are not alone).

For me personally I have have had a couple of fallen soldiers picked up and buried in the last week or so, which says to me that right now the market isn't one that can be effectively traded using Jacko's trend trading methods. It truly is a market for scalpers. As such the part of Jacko's method that needs to be 100% adhered to right now is "patience". He advocates the market will be here long after the youngest of us is long gone so we need to wait for it to re-obtain the charateristics that make the EURUSD the only cross he trades, that is the low volatility and it's inherent trendiness.

Blah,blah, blah, blah....

K8

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Quoting rnl16616

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Jacko, you have covered your entry and exit system for a trade. What do you use in terms of position sizing? For example Alexander Elder recommends 1%-2% of capital per trade with a maximum exposure [to loss] of 6% in any one month period. People like Van K Tharp seem to advocate something very similar.

What do you use or would generally recommend?

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Quoting annieb

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thanks Jacko...breathing a sigh of relief now, as there were a number of things I had without realising got patently wrong - just in the way I personally interpreted the system. Was on the cusp of giving up this Fx. At times it seems just impossible to believe that a wee minnow like myself could ever possibly dream of making it work.

Thanks also to priceaction, ocean and everyone else for your insight. i've been hammered this past week or two trying to trade this way (demo only) I haven't traded the euro before, and was beginning to doubt I ever would again. I've spent almost a year trading cable, just as unsuccessfully I might add.
An unpredictable week, which in retrospect was obvious, but the way you clarified it into such sense makes me realise just how inexperienced ( or thick)I am.
thanks again guys.

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Quoting jacko

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I am a Trend Trader

1. buy/ sell ONLY in the direction of the major trend and
2. buy/sell on dips.(Use support lines to guide you as to price...also "round" numbers ... I also use the 50% Fib ratio..)
3. bank your profits
.

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