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zoopy's trading journal

  • #581
  • May 1, 2008 5:19pm May 1, 2008 5:19pm
Quoting MPP
EU and Aj for me personnaly, i trade the EU seriously and AJ on realy small lots to keep my hand in with other methods or try new ones. this stops me overtrading the EU and i've banked enough with AJ that i have room to lose a few. so i would be very interested in your views on these pairs.

when i get home tomorrow, i think i will try a random pair and post it to see if i even have a clue.

regards

MPP

Have a good night - bedtime for me.
Took a look at AJ and from what I'm seeing, I would possibly consider going long soon. However, not too sure what price wants to do so I'd probably stay away from this until it sorts itself out.

The reason for me saying the above is because the wave did collapse but then made a new high (this tells me I should start looking for longs on pullbacks). If price went to around 97.90 then I'd probably take a punt at it with stops around 97.10. Still seems kinda risky though so best to stay away from this one for a while.
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  • #582
  • May 1, 2008 5:40pm May 1, 2008 5:40pm
I've attached two charts showing what needs to happen in order for me to consider a long position.

In a previous post, I marked down support levels on the daily timeframe using a line chart (I'm still watching what goes on at 1.5400). I still do this just to give me an area to be on the lookout for. Now that I have the area, I start to see how the waves react and move.

For me to even think about taking a long, price would need to move in the projected path that I highlighted on my 4 hour chart. It NEEDS to break the wave to the upside then drop back down and when it starts to move northwards, that's when I'll take my long positions. Chances are, we may only see this next week and I'll be away on vacation for the whole of next week anyways so it can do what it wants. When I get back I'll just trade what I see.
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  • #583
  • May 1, 2008 6:06pm May 1, 2008 6:06pm
Even though I'm not trading this pair, I found it to be a good one to illustrate what I'd be looking for.

Currently price is moving up after the last wave collapsed (this sends me into short mode). What I would then look for is for price to move in the vicinity of the blue box area. If it does and starts turning south, I would short. If it doesn't and breaks the last peak's high (illustrated using the yellow-orange box), then I'd switch to "buy" mode.
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  • #584
  • May 1, 2008 6:20pm May 1, 2008 6:20pm
Zoopy,

I know you are doing this mostly for yourself, but I just want to say good job and thanks for sharing. I'm enjoying your posts a great deal.

-Sean
  • #585
  • May 1, 2008 6:37pm May 1, 2008 6:37pm
Quoting seanchicago
Zoopy,

I know you are doing this mostly for yourself, but I just want to say good job and thanks for sharing. I'm enjoying your posts a great deal.

-Sean
Thanks Sean

I'm not only doing it for myself but I'm hoping that newer traders (maybe even more experienced traders) will find at least some value in my journal. I am very grateful to have come across forex factory because this is where it all started for me. I learn't everything from here and this is going to be my way of giving back.

I may be cutting down on posting too many charts as well because that just adds unnecessary bulk to this journal. I intended this journal to be a learning experience, not one where I post trades. Numbers mean nothing when you return to it a year from now.
  • #586
  • May 2, 2008 12:00am May 2, 2008 12:00am
Zoopy,

Here's a chart for you...

8 hour Euro

Notice that the second wave that moves above the 1.5613 line is higher than the first (which wasn't able to hold above the line on the first try). It then retraces and touches this support (this time it holds) at the third arrow and then turns and heads north. I believe that is where you would have recommended entering(?).

And finally that line now becomes our resistance at the fourth arrow and certainly comfirms the "collapse" of the bullish waves.

How did I do?

-Sean
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  • #587
  • May 2, 2008 2:33am May 2, 2008 2:33am
Dear Zoopy,
You have done a great job simplifying analysis's. Now I would like to share how market can give us a feeling of where it would go in the long term:

In the file attached I have illustrated round number levels only with y.x800 rhythm (y and x are changing). As you can see, When the price has closed upper of this level it is a strong advise that it will keep moving to the next level in the coming weeks.

I would appreciate if you and other boys/girls here describe their thoughts about it. Maybe we could develop a strong tool for future predictions.

Regards,
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Manage probability while following the TREND.
  • #588
  • May 2, 2008 3:36am May 2, 2008 3:36am
Quoting seanchicago
Zoopy,

Here's a chart for you...

8 hour Euro

Notice that the second wave that moves above the 1.5613 line is higher than the first (which wasn't able to hold above the line on the first try). It then retraces and touches this support (this time it holds) at the third arrow and then turns and heads north. I believe that is where you would have recommended entering(?).

And finally that line now becomes our resistance at the fourth arrow and certainly comfirms the "collapse" of the bullish waves.

How did I do?

-Sean
Just checking in quickly before heading back to bed.

Sean, you're starting to get the idea although your analysis of the first wave may be pushing it. I've attached a copy of your chart with my analysis of where I see the waves (remember, look for well defined waves - if you're not sure it qualifies as a wave, it probably isn't significant enough to be used).

Having said that, ignore the entries on the first two arrows that you have. I would have entered a long at the first noticeable dip as well as where your 3rd arrow is. However, your last arrow I probably would have entered on the first peak. You're getting the hang of it though and I can tell you're starting to pick up the rhythm of the market.

For those that are following these exercises. You do have to leave your brain at the door. Even though it's hard, try to forget you ever learn't trendlines, fib retracements, round numbers, PA and to some extent support/resistance levels (although we are using wave structures to determine this but it's based on the prior wave). This is not about predicting, this is about trading what's happening "now".
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  • #589
  • May 2, 2008 3:48am May 2, 2008 3:48am
Quoting khanderoo
Dear Zoopy,
You have done a great job simplifying analysis's. Now I would like to share how market can give us a feeling of where it would go in the long term:

In the file attached I have illustrated round number levels only with y.x800 rhythm (y and x are changing). As you can see, When the price has closed upper of this level it is a strong advise that it will keep moving to the next level in the coming weeks.

I would appreciate if you and other boys/girls here describe their thoughts about it. Maybe we could develop a strong tool for future predictions.

Regards,
Khanderoo

Although your analysis is interesting, the idea of predicting where the market is likely to go in the weeks to come can be dangerous. The reason why I'm saying this is because the market can change it's behaviour any time it wants. Remember, it can decide to follow trendlines and fib retracements "IF" it wants to. It will do what it wants, when it wants and to whom it wants.

One thing I'm glad you did post is that chart though. It dates all the way back to 1998, it's a weekly chart too and it shows the waves exactly the way I have been trying to explain in my exercises. If everyone thinks I'm just BS'ing, pull up any chart, forex, commodities, stock market, doesn't matter which and go back as far as you can. If you're able to find a chart that dates back as far as 100 years I'm sure you'll see the same thing. Why? Because the market moves in waves.
  • #590
  • May 2, 2008 5:47am May 2, 2008 5:47am
Price broke the wave to the upside yesterday if I remember correctly. This sends me into "buy" mode. I said that I would wait for price to drop first which is what is happening now. I will then wait for a drop and when it starts to turn northwards I will consider a long (waiting is important because this is what will reduce your risk). As long as price stays above the area of the orange box I have highlighted, I will consider longs. However... IF price breaks the orange box area I switch over to "sell" mode.

also see post#572 for reference
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  • #591
  • May 2, 2008 5:53am May 2, 2008 5:53am
Cable I was in "sell" mode yesterday. However I had to exit this trade because price started turning around. Looks like we are now on the verge of breaking the wave to the upside. The aggressive way to trade this break is to wait until price has closed above that line (based on the line chart). I do caution those if they do decide to take the aggressive approach, because more often than not there is a pullback first. Again... like the CAD, I have highlighted a possible projection path for this pair. If price goes below the orange box area, I will then switch into "sell" mode again.

also see post#571 for reference
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  • #592
  • May 2, 2008 5:59am May 2, 2008 5:59am
Here is the chart for the eurjpy. In a previous post I marked off a vicinity which I said interested me in looking for a short opportunity (I believe I marked it off using a blue box). Price reached that area overnight and is showing "possible" signs of weakening but I'm still not convinced just yet. I want price to really start turning down and gathering momentum before I consider a short. Like the other charts, I have mapped out a possible projection for this pair.

also see post#583 for reference


* Word of warning. Today is NFP so do be careful if you consider any of these trades.
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  • #593
  • May 2, 2008 7:17am May 2, 2008 7:17am
I have a question zoopy

When price breaks the wave, and you wait for it to retrace back, to turn around and only then enter in the direction of the move, wich is logical. My question is, how do you know when it made the turn around? What are you looking for. If using line chart are you looking for 2 consqutive positive closes or 3 or something else?

I tried to run some backtesting. On H4 chart I would get decent amount of trades. 1 trader a week or 1 trade in 2 weeks, but usually my stops would be just 30 pips below buy price and I would get throuwn out of the market to see it make new high, waiting for the pullback wich never comes and market "runs away" from me.
Thought overall I still I think would do positive because losses would be very small and wins would range i way over 100 pips using 100 pip TSL .

On a daily chart I would get maybe only 6 entry signals a year of wich 4 would be drawdowns. This would be really frustrading to trade.

The biggest problem I think is an entry, because you wait for market to brake the wave, then you wait for it to retrace, and when you think that its done retracing, you enter on the way up and it retraces some more getting you out of the market and then runs away.

So you hunt for this beast patiently in the bushes, and it taunts you, hurts you while you patiently wait and then just runs away without you making a kill.

Although in this testing exercise I was using only waves and nothing else at all. Not even round numbers.
  • #594
  • May 2, 2008 7:19am May 2, 2008 7:19am
Cable didn't end up piercing and closing above the line (mind you it still could with NFP around the corner). If it does drop, it's going to follow the last wave.
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  • #595
  • May 2, 2008 7:41am May 2, 2008 7:41am
Quoting kaunasny
I have a question zoopy

When price breaks the wave, and you wait for it to retrace back, to turn around and only then enter in the direction of the move, wich is logical. My question is, how do you know when it made the turn around?

The biggest problem I think is an entry, because you wait for market to brake the wave, then you wait for it to retrace, and when you think that its done retracing, you enter on the way up and it retraces some more getting you out of the market and then runs away.

So you hunt for this beast patiently in the bushes, and it taunts you, hurts you while you patiently wait and then just runs away without you making a kill.

Although in this testing exercise I was using only waves and nothing else at all. Not even round numbers.
How do I know when it turns around? I wait. I wait for it to turn around and for price to start closing creating a "curve/slope". I don't use rules like how many bars (mind you I'm not even using bars/candles to begin with) or how many pips constitutes a wave or a slope and I know someone is going to try but they'll most likely fail miserably because then they're starting to "box themselves up and trap themselves in a corner". Trading isn't a science or a mathematical equation, it's an art. The only way to learn an "art" is by practicing and doing. I know some will disagree with me on this but if it was a science or a mathematical equation of some sort, how come no one has come up with the formula?

Here's the cable chart. If it starts closing and I see a slope/curve like the one showing that's when I look for entries. The stop will then be at the top of the current wave. There's also a reason for placing stops like that and that is because if the market takes me out, it's a warning sign that the market may be turning around (we'd be making higher highs then - again... the basics).
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  • #596
  • May 2, 2008 7:58am May 2, 2008 7:58am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
watching EU in both candle and line charts, the dip on the candle was significante, but the close has yet to penitrate our 1.5400 area, lets see if price truns here and heads long again.
  • #597
  • May 2, 2008 7:59am May 2, 2008 7:59am
Here's another chart of CAD. There was a move down however I'm not sure if this is it. Even though price is starting to move up, it has to stay there and I'll only really know in 3 hours time which is where the patience part comes in. If you try and rush and pick tops/bottoms you will be the market's next meal.
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  • #598
  • May 2, 2008 8:03am May 2, 2008 8:03am
Quoting MPP
watching EU in both candle and line charts, the dip on the candle was significante, but the close has yet to penitrate our 1.5400 area, lets see if price truns here and heads long again.
I wouldn't even touch euro with a 100 foot pole right now even if we did hit 1.5400 lol. There is no curve/slope up on my 4 hour chart or anything and on top of that it has to break a wave going up and there is DEFINITELY no wave even close for it to break. The wave that it needs to break is right up at 1.5636 area.
  • #599
  • May 2, 2008 8:06am May 2, 2008 8:06am
Here is the eurjpy 4 hour. Not a slope in sight. If it decides to continue it's journey down it better do it soon otherwise when that wave breaks it means we're going higher.
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  • #600
  • May 2, 2008 8:10am May 2, 2008 8:10am
Figured I'd dish this one out since I know you're trading it Yesterday I wasn't 100% sure what this pair was doing and I think I mentioned a possible bias to the upside because the one wave broke. Well... here we go, it went up after the dip down.

btw. Look at CAD lol
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