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  • #561
  • May 1, 2008 3:44pm May 1, 2008 3:44pm
Quoting MPP
I'm with you there, but i think and Zoopy will correct me on this, so here goes.

we are looking for price to either break the low 1.9650ish for a sell or bounce of the low area and return through the 1.9700 area for a buy.

how did i do??

edit: need to check trend for entry direction in my view.
hehe,
so we are buying and selling breaks of the lows and highs...theres a grey area I dont get about pullbacks and when they are finished, but that happens in every strategy, you just never really know when they are done...see, Im a woman I want IT ALL, lol take care, Raz
Never say never.
  • #562
  • May 1, 2008 4:00pm May 1, 2008 4:00pm
Quoting razldazl
Well it looks good, I havent quite worked out how you know a wave is finished so to speak, it pulls back and you get in after the close of the 4hr(?)...I havent been watching it long enough to see it clearly....looking at your gbp now and seeing the 4hr has closed above the last low would you say its a buy now? Not planning to buy just wondering if Im getting it hehe...take care Raz
Are you referring to the current wave? In the case of cable when I said I shorted it, I was looking for a move up (but also a move up where it didn't exceed the height of the last peak). When price went up high, I didn't enter, but rather waited to see if it would drop. When it started to drop this morning then I entered. As for the close of the 4 hour... to be honest I don't even know if it was closed. When you're looking at the line chart there is no open/close point.

Would I consider it a buy? No. For me to consider buying cable, price will have to go beyond 1.9890. If I was to take an aggressive approach then I would buy on the break but a more conservative approach would be to wait for it to drop back down but to also be cautious that it doesn't drop below 1.9635. If it were to drop below 1.9635 then I'll be biased to the short side.

Not sure if that answered your question?
  • #563
  • May 1, 2008 4:02pm May 1, 2008 4:02pm
Quoting razldazl
hehe,
so we are buying and selling breaks of the lows and highs...theres a grey area I dont get about pullbacks and when they are finished, but that happens in every strategy, you just never really know when they are done...see, Im a woman I want IT ALL, lol take care, Raz
lol. Want it all and want it NOW!
  • #564
  • May 1, 2008 4:03pm May 1, 2008 4:03pm
Quoting MPP
I'm with you there, but i think and Zoopy will correct me on this, so here goes.

we are looking for price to either break the low 1.9650ish for a sell or bounce of the low area and return through the 1.9700 area for a buy.

how did i do??

edit: need to check trend for entry direction in my view.
I'm going to try and see if I can explain this better with the next few charts. Doesn't seem like you understand where I'm going with this.
  • #565
  • May 1, 2008 4:10pm May 1, 2008 4:10pm
Quoting zoopy
Are you referring to the current wave? In the case of cable when I said I shorted it, I was looking for a move up (but also a move up where it didn't exceed the height of the last peak). When price went up high, I didn't enter, but rather waited to see if it would drop. When it started to drop this morning then I entered. As for the close of the 4 hour... to be honest I don't even know if it was closed. When you're looking at the line chart there is no open/close point.

Would I consider it a buy? No. For me to consider buying cable, price will have to go beyond 1.9890. If I was to take an aggressive approach then I would buy on the break but a more conservative approach would be to wait for it to drop back down but to also be cautious that it doesn't drop below 1.9635. If it were to drop below 1.9635 then I'll be biased to the short side.

Not sure if that answered your question?
What do you mean theres no open and closed points on a line chart?? There are only close points ...between which the silly line does its own thing but the tops and bottoms are 4hr closes or 1 hour closes or daily closes whatever...
Ok got it about selling below the 9635 or buying above 9890, but that would be a CLOSE above or below right? anyway, following along with interest while eur decides where its going next ehhhh speak soon, Raz
Never say never.
  • #566
  • May 1, 2008 4:12pm May 1, 2008 4:12pm
Ok... going to try and communicate this concept a little clearer. If I don't, I'm a bad Graphic Designer lol.

In this chart, even though it seems "choppy", the trend according to the way Jacko identifies it, is down. I've highlighted this by indicating the peaks of each wave and you'll notice they're dropping.

Excuse the zooming out, I needed to do this to illustrate my point.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: down_trend.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #567
  • May 1, 2008 4:15pm May 1, 2008 4:15pm
In this next chart, I've highlighted the very first well defined wave at the top. I've also mapped out that it "collapsed". I consider a "collapse" whenever price pierces through the base of the wave and it's noticeable.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: step1.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #568
  • May 1, 2008 4:20pm May 1, 2008 4:20pm
This is the final chart. From the previous post, we already know the top wave collapsed because it pierced through and there was a clear close at some point below the base. This "movement" tells me we're headed lower.

Having said that, I will wait for a pullback (ie. wait for it to go up but not as high as the high of the wave that collapsed). When it goes up, I just sit and wait for the line to turn around and turn south. When it does, I short and place my stops at the top of the turn or slightly above. Also, do take note of where the green box is relative to the blue box.

Hope this helps.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: step2.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #569
  • May 1, 2008 4:21pm May 1, 2008 4:21pm
Quoting razldazl
What do you mean theres no open and closed points on a line chart?? There are only close points ...between which the silly line does its own thing but the tops and bottoms are 4hr closes or 1 hour closes or daily closes whatever...
Ok got it about selling below the 9635 or buying above 9890, but that would be a CLOSE above or below right? anyway, following along with interest while eur decides where its going next ehhhh speak soon, Raz
I think I left too much of my brain at the door when I posted that

Yes it's best if it's closed.
  • #570
  • May 1, 2008 4:22pm May 1, 2008 4:22pm
Quoting zoopy
I think I left too much of my brain at the door when I posted that

Yes it's best if it's closed.
Never say never.
  • #571
  • May 1, 2008 4:25pm May 1, 2008 4:25pm
Here is a chart of what I would look for before going long. The dotted line is a projected path. Take note of how it pierces and breaks the wave to the upside. I will then wait for the drop back down and go long when price starts to move up.

Not sure if any of this is making sense. If it isn't, please let me know.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable_long.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #572
  • May 1, 2008 4:32pm May 1, 2008 4:32pm
Here is an example of a possible move up. Keep in mind I also have no idea what the major trend for CAD is. It was definitely down when I last checked but has been ranging sideways recently.

Today the 4 hour wave broke to the upside. Just because of that move, I now turn to taking long positions (btw, just saying it, not actually trading it lol). I won't take a position yet, but will instead wait for the price to drop back down and that's when I'll start looking for an entry.

Entry being... wait for the line to start curving northwards. The more defined the curve is the better because that's an indication that momentum is changing over.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cad_example.gif Size: 10 KB
  • #573
  • May 1, 2008 4:34pm May 1, 2008 4:34pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting zoopy
I'm going to try and see if I can explain this better with the next few charts. Doesn't seem like you understand where I'm going with this.
opps not looking at charts correctly, long day for me and not at my own charts, so missed the whole point of that and was focused on the 2 lines in the cable chart.

No star for me today, i promise to work harded tomorrow.

thanks for the replies and clarification on were your at, which pairs do you like to trade, i personnally favour EU and AJ, i ask because it would be nice to follow the charts your watching. Eu is primary for me but i trade AJ as it has solid fundimental support to the long side in nice annual waves, espcially with the UK reducing interest rates.

I get why you post to stop the over trading, i usually go find a project or help a few others out on different threads as a distraction, not up to my own journal yet.

regards

MPP
  • #574
  • May 1, 2008 4:37pm May 1, 2008 4:37pm
Quoting zoopy
Here is a chart of what I would look for before going long. The dotted line is a projected path. Take note of how it pierces and breaks the wave to the upside. I will then wait for the drop back down and go long when price starts to move up.

Not sure if any of this is making sense. If it isn't, please let me know.
I guess I need sleep but that looks to me like buying into resistance, I mean wouldnt it be better if your blue box was above the orange line, and as we are talking about line charts then the close should really be at or above your orange line...I will go through this tomorrow properly zoopy its midnight here back at the ranch...
Never say never.
  • #575
  • May 1, 2008 4:45pm May 1, 2008 4:45pm
Quoting MPP
opps not looking at charts correctly, long day for me and not at my own charts, so missed the whole point of that and was focused on the 2 lines in the cable chart.

No star for me today, i promise to work harded tomorrow.

thanks for the replies and clarification on were your at, which pairs do you like to trade, i personnally favour EU and AJ, i ask because it would be nice to follow the charts your watching. Eu is primary for me but i trade AJ as it has solid fundimental support to the long side in nice annual waves, espcially with the UK reducing interest rates.

I get why you post to stop the over trading, i usually go find a project or help a few others out on different threads as a distraction, not up to my own journal yet.

regards

MPP
Which pairs do I like trading? For the past few months the euro has really been the only pair I've been trading. I use to trade or at least tried to trade 6 pairs but way too hard to keep track. I find trading one pair is less stressful because I don't have to be concerned about any correlation. Spread is super low for me too... except for when news comes out or the time when we had that huge gap (I saw my spread go to 30 that Sunday).

Don't really have a 2nd pair, maybe I'll look at AJ and see what that's like. You can probably see now why I get bored out of my mind. When you're watching euro and it's not moving, that's when you'll see my journal fly 20 pages lol.

Let me know what pairs you're interested in though and if it's just euro and AJ I'll post for that.
  • #576
  • May 1, 2008 4:51pm May 1, 2008 4:51pm
Ok, I spent the last hour reading your wave thing. I like it, but my brain cells are begging me to stop and do something more simple like take out the garbage and such. In any case here is my question.

If you are looking at the cable now and it is still in a downtrend, you will wait until it retraces back to the (lower)vicinity of the previous peak and when it turns around you short it? If the retracement pierces through the previous peak higher you will wait until retraces and then you take it long? (countertrend?) I don't know if I am making any sense, then again it is late and I am hungry. Thanks.
  • #577
  • May 1, 2008 4:53pm May 1, 2008 4:53pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting zoopy
Which pairs do I like trading? For the past few months the euro has really been the only pair I've been trading. I use to trade or at least tried to trade 6 pairs but way too hard to keep track. I find trading one pair is less stressful because I don't have to be concerned about any correlation. Spread is super low for me too... except for when news comes out or the time when we had that huge gap (I saw my spread go to 30 that Sunday).

Don't really have a 2nd pair, maybe I'll look at AJ and see what that's like. You can probably see now why I get bored out of my mind. When you're watching euro and it's not moving, that's when you'll see my journal fly 20 pages lol.

Let me know what pairs you're interested in though and if it's just euro and AJ I'll post for that.
EU and Aj for me personnaly, i trade the EU seriously and AJ on realy small lots to keep my hand in with other methods or try new ones. this stops me overtrading the EU and i've banked enough with AJ that i have room to lose a few. so i would be very interested in your views on these pairs.

when i get home tomorrow, i think i will try a random pair and post it to see if i even have a clue.

regards

MPP

Have a good night - bedtime for me.
  • #578
  • May 1, 2008 4:53pm May 1, 2008 4:53pm
Quoting razldazl
I guess I need sleep but that looks to me like buying into resistance, I mean wouldnt it be better if your blue box was above the orange line, and as we are talking about line charts then the close should really be at or above your orange line...I will go through this tomorrow properly zoopy its midnight here back at the ranch...
I'm not really concerned about resistance levels (for this exercise). I will probably get flamed for saying that by senior and more experienced traders but keep this in mind. When price travels towards a support or resistance level, are you guaranteed 100% that it will stop dead in that area? Keep in mind the market will do what it wants when it wants. It could very well disregard all trendlines and support/resistance levels if it wanted to. This is why I have a LOT more respect for the market now because I know even after posting all these wave analysis charts, I could still be wrong and the market will prove it to me (and it did with the audusd 4 hour chart I posted). The market is the one that decides the price, not me.
  • #579
  • May 1, 2008 5:01pm May 1, 2008 5:01pm
Quoting milan47
Ok, I spent the last hour reading your wave thing. I like it, but my brain cells are begging me to stop and do something more simple like take out the garbage and such. In any case here is my question.

If you are looking at the cable now and it is still in a downtrend, you will wait until it retraces back to the (lower)vicinity of the previous peak and when it turns around you short it? If the retracement pierces through the previous peak higher you will wait until retraces and then you take it long? (countertrend?) I don't know if I am making any sense, then again it is late and I am hungry. Thanks.
Had to read your post carefully but yes, you have it.

The main reason why I didn't emphasize the major trend too much is because it really doesn't matter. I know Jacko may whoop me for saying that and I can already see him taking out his whip but... what I'm essentially doing is adapting to market conditions. Remember when I first posted a few posts back where I said in order for you to hunt this beast, you have to know what it looks like, where it lives and how it moves? That's exactly what I'm doing. I'm doing this based on current wave structures (not past because that's now history).
  • #580
  • May 1, 2008 5:04pm May 1, 2008 5:04pm
Here is a chart of how/when I would exit the cable 4 hour trade. I said in a previous post I will let it do it's thing and get out when it tells me it's time. Here is an example. The line chart is starting to "curve" up and it's going against me so I took my trade off and took profits. No need to see if it'll go further down, there will always be more trades and the market will always be there.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable_exit.gif Size: 11 KB
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