4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

I took TC on GBPCHF. I was +29 at one point but the price fell back slightly so i took only +5. A re entry using my 5 mins might be on later. I have targets of the trendine and the thick red line which represents the top of a monthly inside bar. If the price breaks the top of the monthly bar then there might be a bigger run.

A trade is a trade i dont see the connection with the GBP and the 1 hr chart. I never use them,its just a TC on the 4hr............+30 if you wanted it. If in doubt take smaller amounts from the trade.

GBPUSD after breaking up over the prev. high made a retracement but didn't find support near the broken level (5min). So I didn't enter.

Edit: So now I'm looking for GBPUSD more for variants 2 or 3 and EURUSD - var. 1 (post 14138)

GBPCHF reached its trendline as expected which my exit. I had my target line a little shorter on my 5 mins chart by 20 pips so didnt make all that i could have but another +18 all the same.

hi
i see an EA (chance evaluetor) on your chart?wd u plz tell me what is it and share it?
thx

Another quick grab of 40 pips on this strategy. Bouncing off from price levels.

Sell at 1.9900
Take profit at 1.9860 (with those MAs crowding)

Forming a round top... Let's wait...

Sure - see post #13934 for it. There's a pdf file there with its description.

It is alway good to read every part of the thread you have missed whenever u return back. it has really help me. I have never ever miss any part of the thread since i join it.

By doing soo you will never miss vital information

york: thx for the info
phillip and others:is this a zero break and could we trade on it?price breaks the TL and closes above with first candle then macd breaked zero and H4 closed above the 21 at the next candle,was that a good buy signal?and why if it is not?
(my answer for not is :slow time of the day and wanna know yours plz)
thx

It was not unreasonable to suggest a TC on the Euro this morning. However closer observation shows a three bar high on the 4hr and with that in mind the price needed to make a break above that for the TC to be on. A trip to the upper trendline or possibly the 200sma was in order. A good choice to stay out of that as it turned out. The lower trendline is still holding up the price and is just above the low for April also.

The monthly pin for April has formed nicely so this month will be interesting.The low for that is around 1.5508 and a break below this might prove significant.

Our minds are alike bshadroo, i think i answered that as you posted!, though i was looking at my candle closing at 8am.

This is a perfect BOZ and the rythm is there. My candle will close in about 21 minutes but I will take this when the price retraces to atleast 50% or 38%. I look at the price movement at lower trime frame.

EDIT: I am not referrering to you chart. That is not a Break of Zero (BOZ). I am refering to current situation on EU.

As Phil has said before that you dont take all the macd signals and so one must for any obstacles before taking them, sometimes, as in the case of the Euro, certainly on my chart, the TC wasnt on.

Sorry to go on about the Euro TC, but i just put my 5 min chart up and the price also did not break above the high from the previous day which was significant, it was stuck just under it for some hours.

GU has formed spinning top and close inside the trendline. PREPARE
EU has formed BOZ. PREPARE AT THE RETRACEMENT.

As there's some pause in posts I'll allow myself a theoretical question. One of fundamental principles of market behaviour which is used by Phillip's system is that "after the breakout of a serious price level price tends to retrace to the level of breakout before it continues moving on".

I understand why it may continue its way after this retracement - those who are not yet on the train look for a setup to join. Some of them enter just when price comes closer to the broken level - it seems to be a "logical" point to enter. The others enter a bit later on the first signs of continuation, making sure that was not a false breakout.

I don't really understand why does price retrace after the breakout (for bullish breakout - goes down)?

My only explanation can be that the market was moved by big players and then this impulse weakens and price goes back. If other players join (at the breakout level) then the move continues, if not enough players join, then price goes back and we have a false breakout. But this scenario is unlikely to be the only one I think.

Could anybody explain or post a link where it's described?

euro gave a nice zero break on my platform . but agian the candle was too big and stop loss would have been huge and there was not enough retrace of price for me too enter.even the 1 hour had a 100 + pips candle. it is easy to say now that even if i had enter i would have made pips but the important thing is that" is the set up within my range and boundaries when i enter" . if not then i skip the trade because other wise it will be like gambling. it is all about anticipation of the next candle . The price can go any where it wants.

price seems to be going to the 365 MA now. one more day in the week. will see if there is still room for more correction in this pair. a nice pull back to 8 or 21 with a reasonable size candle and stop loss will be of interest to me. Until then i am watching Phillips . 5 minute strategy.
Thank you phillip for that because it keeps one going as a trader when 4 hours is a little out of my reach.
trade well everyone.
Nadia.

yorik;If you are asking why we have retracements, my view is the following. When the price makes some move it over extends itself. There is too much excitement and the price overshoots, either up or down. The price will always return to the mean, and so over bought stocks return to an accepted average price, its true value if you like. The second factor is the generally orderly nature of markets. After a decent move, people need time to catchup, take profits etc. If the price simply continued on its way unabated people would not have time to take breath, take stock, and pocket some gains in an orderly fashion. Perhaps in the minds of the big players, they are alway testing the water, have we gone too far? where is my comfort blanket?.......oh its just down there, lets check it one more time before we feel comforatble moving on.

Thanks, napeharm.
Your answer makes it clearer to me now. Besides the second mechanism mentioned by you suggested me one more possible explanation.

That is: breakout is moved by emotions (1); movement after the breakout cannot last forever - though it's Forex, buyers are limited in the end (2). So after some distance the speed of the movement may go down. As many people are on emotions, noticing this they may think that it might be a false breakout and close their positions. So do players with short playing timeframes + those who need to close their position anyway. The process reinforces itself and depending on the force of the initial breakout it leads to a more or less deep retracement.

In fact, that may be just you explanation but in a bit different words. Thanks again.

Agressive turning on GBPUSD, again crossed SMA89. No trade - too big stoploss (even with partial opening). If to place SL over SMA89 it may be <50 pips but that price seems a bit "forced" for me. Plus news. No trade.