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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #10,401
  • Edited 7:36pm Apr 29, 2008 7:08pm | Edited 7:36pm
  •  Kitara
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: This space for rent...call for info | 128 Posts
Okay, here is my update to the AUD/CAD...
Trading is getting ramped up in Australia right now, so lets see what they'll do.
This fib in my chart below was drawn on the 4hr. Now that we are into a new daily candle, please take note that it closed right on the trend line... to me this means to watch out for a pin candle, if price does go down. Possible headfake. I wouldn't have a sell stop at the 0.9410 right now. I'd wait to see how this next 4 hour candle plays out. Better to wait than getting tricked into a pin. Just my 2 cents though. Would love to hear other opinions!
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  • #10,402
  • Apr 29, 2008 7:10pm Apr 29, 2008 7:10pm
  •  Kitara
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: This space for rent...call for info | 128 Posts
LMAO... okay, I'm not the biggest Bush supporter or hater...but that was just funny
  • #10,403
  • Apr 29, 2008 7:23pm Apr 29, 2008 7:23pm
Quoting Kitara
Okay, here is my update to the AUD/CAD...
Trading is getting ramped up in Australia right now, so lets see what they'll do.
This fib in my chart below was drawn on the 4hr. Now that we are into a new daily candle, please take note that it closed right on the trend line... to me this means to watch out for a pin candle, if price does go down. Possible headfake. I wouldn't have a buy stop at the 0.9410 right now. I'd wait to see how this next 4 hour candle plays out. Better to wait than getting tricked into a pin. Just my 2 cents though. Would love to hear other opinions!
(I see your chart when you post them.)

That Daily Inside Bar is also resting on a trendline. A nice hard break at the bottom of the bar could prove profitable. Sorry, can't post chart not at home.

Do you see any other reasons for a short trade?
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #10,404
  • Apr 29, 2008 7:30pm Apr 29, 2008 7:30pm
Quoting jcsmesquita
oh dear I opened my eyes and I saw this... :surprised

is anyone else experiencing this problem? is it metatrader?? I thought we already had one kind of pinocchio...
LOL!...
  • #10,405
  • Apr 29, 2008 7:30pm Apr 29, 2008 7:30pm
Quoting jcsmesquita
oh dear I opened my eyes and I saw this... :surprised

is anyone else experiencing this problem? is it metatrader?? I thought we already had one kind of pinocchio...
If that doesn't make it fall, nothing will.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #10,406
  • Apr 29, 2008 7:34pm Apr 29, 2008 7:34pm
  •  Kitara
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: This space for rent...call for info | 128 Posts
Yep, that inside bar sits right on the trendline. And with the daily opening on the trendline, it makes it suspect to me. I'd feel better shorting if the new daily and 4 hour opened below the line. I think now if it hits my 9410 entry, it'll be a fake out. Maybe the next 4 hour bar will give me a better clue.
I'm a daily trade trender though, so for me to counter trend trade at all is like asking me to drive backwards on the road at 60 miles an hour. I'm going to be cautious
I'm curious, do you see other reasons to short? I don't usually play 1 hour candles, but if there was a solid open below that trendline on a 1 hour chart, I'd feel more comfortable shorting now too. As I look at my chart now, it's hovering right at that trendline. It poked its head a little below, but came right back up. I kind of feel like a sniper right now. I love Aussie pairs, they have paid me well in the past. I know they can burn just as fast too though, so I'll be patient and stay in the bushes.
  • #10,407
  • Apr 29, 2008 7:36pm Apr 29, 2008 7:36pm
Quoting Kitara
I like the safer trades, so I'm not sure about this one yet. It could go up and only hit the 32 fib line. Or it could go up further and hit the 50. I have a feeling they could be a retracement up before the EUR/GBP continues on down. I like better risk rewards on my entries, but I'm conservative too. I'd love to hear how others would play it. Even on my conservative daily strategy, this wouldn't be a buy yet.
I did not take it either, I think the up run is stopped,
but I did think it would go to 7980 level,
and I just play conservative.
and I like the color on the chart
it is comfortable for my eyes.
thanks for your comments!

Dhalsim
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Success is the small sum of efforts, repeated day in and day out.
  • #10,408
  • Apr 29, 2008 7:45pm Apr 29, 2008 7:45pm
  •  Kitara
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: This space for rent...call for info | 128 Posts
I was trying to see where you got 0.7980 from..but I think I see it now. I will have to watch and see where this one goes. I just like better set-ups. I'm a simple kind of girl
Your colors are nice and mellow. No funny rainbows, lol
  • #10,409
  • Apr 29, 2008 7:53pm Apr 29, 2008 7:53pm
Quoting Kitara
Yep, that inside bar sits right on the trendline. And with the daily opening on the trendline, it makes it suspect to me. I'd feel better shorting if the new daily and 4 hour opened below the line. I think now if it hits my 9410 entry, it'll be a fake out. Maybe the next 4 hour bar will give me a better clue.
I'm a daily trade trender though, so for me to counter trend trade at all is like asking me to drive backwards on the road at 60 miles an hour. I'm going to be cautious
I'm curious, do you see other reasons to short? I don't usually play 1 hour candles, but if there was a solid open below that trendline on a 1 hour chart, I'd feel more comfortable shorting now too. As I look at my chart now, it's hovering right at that trendline. It poked its head a little below, but came right back up. I kind of feel like a sniper right now. I love Aussie pairs, they have paid me well in the past. I know they can burn just as fast too though, so I'll be patient and stay in the bushes.
Don't pay too much attention to the break of the trendline. More attention to the break of the bottom of the Daily Inside Bar. I'm not dismissing the trendline, it is very important in the confluence of this potiential short trade. It is just that the Inside Bar has more power when they line up with more confluences.

Am I making sense?
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #10,410
  • Apr 29, 2008 8:01pm Apr 29, 2008 8:01pm
Quoting Kitara
Okay, here is my update to the AUD/CAD...
Trading is getting ramped up in Australia right now, so lets see what they'll do.
This fib in my chart below was drawn on the 4hr. Now that we are into a new daily candle, please take note that it closed right on the trend line... to me this means to watch out for a pin candle, if price does go down. Possible headfake. I wouldn't have a buy stop at the 0.9410 right now. I'd wait to see how this next 4 hour candle plays out. Better to wait than getting tricked into a pin. Just my 2 cents though. Would love to hear other opinions!
Hey Kitara here's my take:

RED = Monthly fib ret resistance
GREEN = Monthly fib ret support.

On a monthly outlook price seems prompt for a swing-down.
Weekly: price went "touch and go" with last week's upper channel trend. Now could form a nice IB or PB? Either way you look at it potential break to the bottom.

Short-medium term confluence: PPZ channel, upward channel trend.

Longer-ish term: Confirmation if price penetrates green area? Could then be sitting on a free trade..... (hehe I won't abuse it)

Will keep myself out of this one for the time being.

Also can I ask people, what sort of % of your balance do you risk on average per trade? AND how many of these trades might you have open at any one time? Just curious... This is a very personal question and by no means I don't want it to turn into a debate on whether it's right or wrong.

Happy trading!
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  • #10,411
  • Apr 29, 2008 8:02pm Apr 29, 2008 8:02pm
  •  Kitara
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: This space for rent...call for info | 128 Posts
You do make sense, but you're taking away my break pedal on my backwards fast drive into the brick wall
Aud/Cad will be watched close. I look forward to seeing how this one turns out. So you're thinking the break of 0.9410 will show enough strength to continue down? I would feel better if it wasn't counter they daily trend. If it broke down on the next 4 hour bar, I'd say cool beans. If it happens in the next 3 hours, I'd be weary of being tricked.
Now I don't follow fundies too much. Is there anything there that would make this short more convincing?
  • #10,412
  • Edited Apr 30, 2008 4:51pm Apr 29, 2008 8:14pm | Edited Apr 30, 2008 4:51pm
Quoting jcsmesquita
Hey Kitara here's my take:

RED = Monthly fib ret resistance
GREEN = Monthly fib ret support.

On a monthly outlook price seems prompt for a swing-down.
Weekly: price went "touch and go" with last week's upper channel trend. Now could form a nice IB or PB? Either way you look at it potential break to the bottom.

Short-medium term confluence: PPZ channel, upward channel trend.

Longer-ish term: Confirmation if price penetrates green area? Could then be sitting on a free trade..... (hehe I won't abuse it)

Will keep myself out of this one for the time being.

Also can I ask people, what sort of % of your balance do you risk on average per trade? AND how many of these trades might you have open at any one time? Just curious... This is a very personal question and by no means I don't want it to turn into a debate on whether it's right or wrong.

Happy trading!
Nice job jc.


One trade at 3% or 3 trades at 1% each.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #10,413
  • Apr 29, 2008 8:18pm Apr 29, 2008 8:18pm
  •  Kitara
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: This space for rent...call for info | 128 Posts
Well, if I was going to follow the weekly chart on Aud/Cad, I wouldn't even consider entering a short until a break of 0.9370. Daily is usually my bread and butter, can't say I've looked much at monthlys.. but I find your interpretation interesting JC.
To answer your question, I follow many pairs on the daily charts. I've been doing this for a couple years now and I like to think I know their personalities. On some I risk more of my capital than others. I don't follow the 2% rule. But I don't risk more than 8%, and those are on confident trades. The Aussies have done me well. I hate USD/JPY...burned me real bad in the beginning of my trading and I think I still have scars. It's predictable to most experience traders, but I just have bad voodo on it. I've also learned that GPB/USD doesn't follow any of my daily set-up rules, but it sure loves fib levels! EUR/CHF has been evil and good to me. I think Aussies are my favorite, and I've been trending along with jacko on eur/usd until late.
  • #10,414
  • Apr 29, 2008 8:23pm Apr 29, 2008 8:23pm
Quoting Kitara
I look forward to seeing how this one turns out. So you're thinking the break of 0.9410 will show enough strength to continue down? I would feel better if it wasn't counter they daily trend. If it broke down on the next 4 hour bar, I'd say cool beans. If it happens in the next 3 hours, I'd be weary of being tricked.
Now I don't follow fundies too much. Is there anything there that would make this short more convincing?
Eh sorry didn't mean to sound so bearish. I'm not sure if it will have enough strength. I don't know if the fib ret level will have enough juice to hold price and I haven't seen enough PA. I wouldn't rule out thinking about fundies, I recently read something that made me feel bullish/bearish but I can't remember which and I can't quote the source...

I haven't watched this pair enough to make up my mind.
  • #10,415
  • Apr 29, 2008 8:25pm Apr 29, 2008 8:25pm
Quoting Kitara
You do make sense, but you're taking away my break pedal on my backwards fast drive into the brick wall
Aud/Cad will be watched close. I look forward to seeing how this one turns out. So you're thinking the break of 0.9410 will show enough strength to continue down? I would feel better if it wasn't counter they daily trend. If it broke down on the next 4 hour bar, I'd say cool beans. If it happens in the next 3 hours, I'd be weary of being tricked.
Now I don't follow fundies too much. Is there anything there that would make this short more convincing?
The key to building a case to enter a trade (for me) is center around Price Action. The more confluences of events that takes place around Price Action the more confortable I feel entering that trade.

So on the Aud/Cad, we have an Daily Inside Bar resting on a trendline. Pretty good. Now if a major Fib line or PPZ or S/R level also surrounded this Price Action would be great. And I would be sitting in the bushes with you. But we have to wait and see.

I don't follow fundies either, except for the 1st Friday of the month and Interest Rate announcements.

Price is News and News is Price.

Jim

("cool beans". How cute is that.)
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #10,416
  • Apr 29, 2008 8:27pm Apr 29, 2008 8:27pm
  •  Kitara
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: This space for rent...call for info | 128 Posts
I just checked out the monthly chart for Aud/cad. Well, if you believe the fib rule that if it closes above the 100 level, it'll go to the 1.32 extension, we could see 0.9900. I'm still hoping for my short play though
  • #10,417
  • Apr 29, 2008 8:31pm Apr 29, 2008 8:31pm
That's an interesting perspective Kitara,

thanks for the feedback guys.
  • #10,418
  • Apr 29, 2008 8:36pm Apr 29, 2008 8:36pm
  •  Kitara
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: This space for rent...call for info | 128 Posts
haha, I'm still going to hang in the bushes. I still have my support line at 9412...which is close enough to 9410. So trendline, ppz, and 0 fib line break, I'm going to pull my trigger. Unless it's before the end of this 4 hour bar, then I will assume it's a bear trap.
Geez, Trading is kind of like a jungle isn't it?
  • #10,419
  • Edited 4:11am Apr 30, 2008 3:28am | Edited 4:11am
good morning eveyone theres a nice pibar setting up on the eurgbp 4hr with some confluence with MAs.


out for + 21
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  • #10,420
  • Apr 30, 2008 7:12am Apr 30, 2008 7:12am
Quoting jcsmesquita
Hey guys, hope everyone has had a good weekend...

Here's my take on USD/CHF.
PB off down trend + PPZ + Fib ret confluence.

p.s. jarroo thx for ur feedback on my previous USDCAD post
Break by the end of the week? lots of USD action with rates today and NFP on friday... Check out the 4H bollinger squeeze... reckon it's gonna fly?
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