Well today's bond markets says about next week FOMC meeting:
Based upon the April 25 market close, the 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract for the May 2008 expiration is currently pricing in a 78 percent probability that the FOMC will decrease the target rate by at least 25 basis pointsfrom 2-1/4 percent to 2 percent at the FOMC meeting on April 30 (versus a 22 percent probability of no rate change).
Summary Table
April 23: 18% for No Change versus 82% for -25 bps.
April 24: 18% for No Change versus 82% for -25 bps.
April 25: 22% for No Change versus 78% for -25 bps.
April 28:
April 29:
April 30: FOMC decision on federal funds target rate.
Based upon the April 25 market close, the 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract for the May 2008 expiration is currently pricing in a 78 percent probability that the FOMC will decrease the target rate by at least 25 basis pointsfrom 2-1/4 percent to 2 percent at the FOMC meeting on April 30 (versus a 22 percent probability of no rate change).
Summary Table
April 23: 18% for No Change versus 82% for -25 bps.
April 24: 18% for No Change versus 82% for -25 bps.
April 25: 22% for No Change versus 78% for -25 bps.
April 28:
April 29:
April 30: FOMC decision on federal funds target rate.