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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #3,561
  • Apr 28, 2008 3:01pm Apr 28, 2008 3:01pm
Quoting zoopy
Yep. I think this week is going to be very choppy. In the past I've noticed NFP weeks tend to be all over the place. Wednesday's FOMC statement is probably just going to add more chop to it too. Probably a good week to take off... there's always next week. Can you believe that? I'm already thinking of taking the week off and it's only Monday LOL.
zoopy

Whats NFP?

TP
  • #3,562
  • Apr 28, 2008 3:07pm Apr 28, 2008 3:07pm
Quoting zoopy
If I was using only the daily chart, there is NO way I would have known that we could have experienced that bounce up.
..except for the exact .618 retrace lineup and the daily pin bar.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #3,563
  • Apr 28, 2008 3:08pm Apr 28, 2008 3:08pm
ok here is a question. The figures in this question are just purely for the question.

Say I put an order in, a Stop ordder with a trailing stop of 50 pips and my order is at 5600. The market comes up and gets my order and travels to 5650.

Question 1: Does that mean my stop loss is now at 5600 ( being that it would have been at 5550( 5600 TSL 50 pips=5550SL))

Question 2: if the above is correct and the market retrace back past 5600, where my SL now is and lets say it travel way south to 5500, then why would I still be in the market ie My stop loss hasnt stopped me out.....

Max
  • #3,564
  • Apr 28, 2008 3:08pm Apr 28, 2008 3:08pm
Quoting takeprofit
zoopy

Whats NFP?

TP
Non Farm's Payroll / Nonfarm Employment Change
  • #3,565
  • Apr 28, 2008 3:10pm Apr 28, 2008 3:10pm
http://i30.tinypic.com/149wf7.gif

"on a serious note, though your indicator is showing to you the trend, it tells others it's ok to discuss another indicator they like, and thus the thread dies."

Ok, I don't have to post or add to this thread at all. I'm not Amish so I guess I don't belong here. So I'll take my indicators and zippers and leave. Thanks for the warm welcome.
  • #3,566
  • Apr 28, 2008 3:10pm Apr 28, 2008 3:10pm
Quoting SeekingLight
..except for the exact .618 retrace lineup and the daily pin bar.
That too although I didn't point out that pinbar since it's not a great looking one. I prefer the open/close being closer together.
  • #3,567
  • Apr 28, 2008 3:17pm Apr 28, 2008 3:17pm
Quoting cruze2005
ok here is a question. The figures in this question are just purely for the question.

Say I put an order in, a Stop ordder with a trailing stop of 50 pips and my order is at 5600. The market comes up and gets my order and travels to 5650.

Question 1: Does that mean my stop loss is now at 5600 ( being that it would have been at 5550( 5600 TSL 50 pips=5550SL))

Question 2: if the above is correct and the market retrace back past 5600, where my SL now is and lets say it travel way south to 5500, then why would I still be in the market ie My stop loss hasnt stopped me out.....

Max
Cruze,

You are absolutely correct in relation to the SL for question 1. You should be stopped out at B/E using a 50 pip TSL.

In relation to question 2 (if this is an actual occurence you have been put through) you have either put the Manual Stop Loss in incorrectly or if the platform you are using uses an trailing stop loss then maybe you haven't set it up correctly. Other than that it would have been a problem with your broker's platform (or a massive gap down over a weekend).

Probably hasn't helped,

K8
  • #3,568
  • Apr 28, 2008 3:24pm Apr 28, 2008 3:24pm
This is my trade I have just placed.

EUR/USD

Entry --------------1.5657.
Trailing Stop Loss--- 50.
Will use AH if there is a retest of 23.6, which is roughly 80-90 pips away.

Good night all.
  • #3,569
  • Apr 28, 2008 3:29pm Apr 28, 2008 3:29pm
Quoting Khornate8
Cruze,

You are absolutely correct in relation to the SL for question 1. You should be stopped out at B/E using a 50 pip TSL.

In relation to question 2 (if this is an actual occurence you have been put through) you have either put the Manual Stop Loss in incorrectly or if the platform you are using uses an trailing stop loss then maybe you haven't set it up correctly. Other than that it would have been a problem with your broker's platform (or a massive gap down over a weekend).

Probably hasn't helped,

K8
I am pretty sure it is set up correctly. When I execute an order it has in brackets next to it in () the TSL number. I has just happened to me over night on a pair not associated with this thread. I was up over 70 pips with a smaller TSL of 30. woke this morning to notice is was down 52 pips?????

I use GFT if anyone can shed some light
  • #3,570
  • Apr 28, 2008 3:44pm Apr 28, 2008 3:44pm
Quoting cruze2005
I am pretty sure it is set up correctly. When I execute an order it has in brackets next to it in () the TSL number. I has just happened to me over night on a pair not associated with this thread. I was up over 70 pips with a smaller TSL of 30. woke this morning to notice is was down 52 pips?????

I use GFT if anyone can shed some light

Ouch. Probably lucky it was only that far and not a few hundred pip drop. I don't use GFT, but I'd personally give the company a call and make some enquiries. If they don't give you a satisfactory explanation or if they say the platform had an issue and they don't re-credit your account I'd move to another company.

And in the event it was something you did wrong at least you will know what to do next time to not encounter this problem again, especially with the market being so choppy right know.

I personally don't have the option to set a TSL and have to manually move it. This does cost some pips when it spikes overnight before dropping but at least I know I don't have to trust the company to have the TSL work correctly.

Best of luck, let us know how you go.

K8.
  • #3,571
  • Apr 28, 2008 4:15pm Apr 28, 2008 4:15pm
Quoting sini
This is my trade I have just placed.
but why?
  • #3,572
  • Apr 28, 2008 4:20pm Apr 28, 2008 4:20pm
Hi Cruze,
i use GFT and halifax, did you have a look to see that the entry hasn't been changed from where you entered your trade, GFT/halifax do that when there is an overnight position held, it is likened to at a certain point they get you out of the trade and then buy you back into the trade at closer to the current price, so if you where up 70 pips on that tradeand it was a buy trade, they sold your position at a certain point(not sure what determines this) and then re-entered you and closer to the current price at the time, they leave youe stops where they where, they credit your account, now if price falls from the newly entered position it will show as negative relative to the newly entered price, but in realaity as long as you remember where you entered the original trade you can keep it in perspective.
hope this isn't to confusing, and i hope it helps, if i am barking up the wrong tree tell me so,
cheers
geoff

Quoting cruze2005
I am pretty sure it is set up correctly. When I execute an order it has in brackets next to it in () the TSL number. I has just happened to me over night on a pair not associated with this thread. I was up over 70 pips with a smaller TSL of 30. woke this morning to notice is was down 52 pips?????

I use GFT if anyone can shed some light
  • #3,573
  • Apr 28, 2008 5:50pm Apr 28, 2008 5:50pm
Quoting takeprofit
zoopy

Whats NFP?

TP
Hey TakeProfit.... to be more precise with Zoopy's permission:

Non-Farm Payroll

Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP. This report is the first of the month that relates to labor conditions, making it susceptible to big surprises.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


What is Expected

The US is expected to lose 75,000 jobs in April, following a loss of 80,000 jobs in the previous month. The unemployment rate in April is expected to increase to 5.2 pct from 5.1 pct in the previous month.

'During the sampling period, just about every reliable indicator of activity in the labor sector pointed to further declines in the non-farm payroll report for the month,' Brusuelas said. 'We expect that continued stress in the manufacturing, goods producing and construction sectors should be the primary catalyst for more bloodletting in April.'

Factory orders in March are expected to have increased 0.3 pct following a 1.3 pct decline in the previous month. Excluding transportation, factory orders are expected to have increased 2.0 pct following a 1.8 pct decline in the previous month.

Economists from Barclays Capitals noted that durable good orders dropped 0.3 pct in the month, 'mostly owing to a sharp decline in motor vehicle orders that was likely related to the ongoing American Axle strike.' But offsetting that weakness will be a moderate climb in nondurable goods orders, 'lifted by surging commodity prices,' the economists said.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


You can find all the descriptions in the calendar. Just click on details.

http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php

Hope this helps...

Mike G
  • #3,574
  • Apr 28, 2008 6:26pm Apr 28, 2008 6:26pm
hi all, great thread!!!

I am new and trying to learn this strategy. I was wondering how long does a 50pip tsl usually last? it looks like the goal is to enter on a "dip" which is determined with trend lines and/or 50% fib, is this correct?

I read the pdf and but not sure so I really appreciate everyone sharing their input. I am very interested in finding a part time trading strategy utilizing trends.

thanks
  • #3,575
  • Apr 28, 2008 6:58pm Apr 28, 2008 6:58pm
Quoting jk4x
hi all, great thread!!!

I am new and trying to learn this strategy. I was wondering how long does a 50pip tsl usually last? it looks like the goal is to enter on a "dip" which is determined with trend lines and/or 50% fib, is this correct?

I read the pdf and but not sure so I really appreciate everyone sharing their input. I am very interested in finding a part time trading strategy utilizing trends.

thanks
Hard to really answer your 50 pip TSL question since the euro has really kicked things up a few notches with the crazy volatility we've been having the past few weeks. I'd say it could range anywhere from a few hours to a few days even depending on how deep the retracements are.

When it comes to entries, you are correct for the most part. You enter on dips, watching price near trendlines/50.0% fib retracement/support areas and don't forget round numbers too.
  • #3,576
  • Apr 28, 2008 9:16pm Apr 28, 2008 9:16pm
Quoting geoffrod
Hi Cruze,
i use GFT and halifax, did you have a look to see that the entry hasn't been changed from where you entered your trade, GFT/halifax do that when there is an overnight position held, it is likened to at a certain point they get you out of the trade and then buy you back into the trade at closer to the current price, so if you where up 70 pips on that tradeand it was a buy trade, they sold your position at a certain point(not sure what determines this) and then re-entered you and closer to the current price at the time, they leave youe stops where they where, they credit your account, now if price falls from the newly entered position it will show as negative relative to the newly entered price, but in realaity as long as you remember where you entered the original trade you can keep it in perspective.
hope this isn't to confusing, and i hope it helps, if i am barking up the wrong tree tell me so,
cheers
geoff
Cruze,

I think Geoffrod may be onto your problem. As your TSL is linked to your original purchase order when it gets swapped out and back in again as part of their interest swap your original order would be closed. Therefore your TSL is also taken away as the original parent trade is now gone. And as the platform then doesn't automatically create a new TSL for the new long after the swap you now don't have a stop in place at all once the swap is completed, therefore very dangerous if a big drop occurs later in the night.

The only solution to this I can see is either determine the exact time each day the swap occurs and, after the swap attach a new TSL to the new parent trade created as part of the swap. If the platform only allows a TSL to be placed at the time of entering a parent trade you may have to sell out of your newly created position from the swap and immediately buy back in with a TSL attached to the new order.

The other option, if you are not available at the time of the swap is to revert back to the manually set TSL that is adjusted by yourself everytime you check the market and a new high is reached. I checked this out using the my current strategy for the E/U and found I would have been down about 120 pips over the last 4 months from missing spikes and adjusting a TSL before it retraced through my older manually set stop loss. Considering just one news based re-tracement over the space of a few hours can shed 200 - 300 pips off the price 120 pips over 4 months is more an insurance policy premium than anything else. I tend to agree with Jacko in that I don't greatly trust compuders so prefer the manual setting of TSLs.

Hope this helps. I appreciate this is away from the Jacko thread however is appropriate I believe as a lot of newbie traders (myself included in this) see the automatic TSL as a bonus to a platform but now I see a pretty bad pitfall to it as well. Thanks Cruze.

K8
  • #3,577
  • Apr 29, 2008 12:53am Apr 29, 2008 12:53am
Quoting Khornate8
Cruze,

I think Geoffrod may be onto your problem. As your TSL is linked to your original purchase order when it gets swapped out and back in again as part of their interest swap your original order would be closed. Therefore your TSL is also taken away as the original parent trade is now gone. And as the platform then doesn't automatically create a new TSL for the new long after the swap you now don't have a stop in place at all once the swap is completed, therefore very dangerous if a big drop occurs later in the night.

The only solution to this I can see is either determine the exact time each day the swap occurs and, after the swap attach a new TSL to the new parent trade created as part of the swap. If the platform only allows a TSL to be placed at the time of entering a parent trade you may have to sell out of your newly created position from the swap and immediately buy back in with a TSL attached to the new order.

The other option, if you are not available at the time of the swap is to revert back to the manually set TSL that is adjusted by yourself everytime you check the market and a new high is reached. I checked this out using the my current strategy for the E/U and found I would have been down about 120 pips over the last 4 months from missing spikes and adjusting a TSL before it retraced through my older manually set stop loss. Considering just one news based re-tracement over the space of a few hours can shed 200 - 300 pips off the price 120 pips over 4 months is more an insurance policy premium than anything else. I tend to agree with Jacko in that I don't greatly trust compuders so prefer the manual setting of TSLs.

Hope this helps. I appreciate this is away from the Jacko thread however is appropriate I believe as a lot of newbie traders (myself included in this) see the automatic TSL as a bonus to a platform but now I see a pretty bad pitfall to it as well. Thanks Cruze.

K8
Hi Cruze and K8

There is yet other solution for this problem and I am using it. Instead of playing with spot forex one can use GFT's CFD (contract for difference). There is an advantage that EUR/USD.cfd has 2 pip spread instead of spot forex which is 3 pip and there is no swap over the night (it is a financing rate rather, similar to swap rate in amount, that is added or subtracted after one closes a trade) so your order is always where you bought over many days and your tsl is managed properly. More on this here: (http://www.gftuk.com/cfd/cfds.asp)
  • #3,578
  • Apr 29, 2008 12:57am Apr 29, 2008 12:57am
Quoting Ocean
Hi Cruze and K8

There is yet other solution for this problem and I am using it. Instead of playing with spot forex one can use GFT's CFD (contract for difference). There is an advantage that EUR/USD.cfd has 2 pip spread instead of spot forex which is 3 pip and there is no swap over the night (it is a financing rate rather, similar to swap rate in amount, that is added or subtracted after one closes a trade) so your order is always where you bought over many days and your tsl is managed properly. More on this here: http://www.gftuk.com/cfd/cfds.asp
Thanks Ocean,

personally the platform I use is CFD based anyway (CMC markets). I am happy to manually adjust as needed. May be of assistance to Cruze however,

cheers,

K8
  • #3,579
  • Apr 29, 2008 4:02am Apr 29, 2008 4:02am
I'm a buyer at 1.5500 with a 100 pip TSL. A very round number and there was some support/resistance action going on around these levels.

Although we don't use profit targets, I will close my position instantly, if my 100 pip profit target is hit. Maybe I'm too optimistic, but the current Average Daily Range is about 130 pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #3,580
  • Apr 29, 2008 4:05am Apr 29, 2008 4:05am
Market has been pretty up and down; I am out until the FOMC meeting minuts are out.
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