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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #3,541
  • Apr 28, 2008 8:36am Apr 28, 2008 8:36am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting takeprofit
Zoopy

I figured out the trend is up. Dont worry I didn't 'borrow' any 5 year olds for this. We have been discussing trend a lot here. Everyone agrees it is up but last week everyone was saying wait and be patient because the trend is now down. I did find this a little confusing but I'm waiting patiently now for the general opinion here that the trend is now up again.

Thanks

TP
use of words always confusing things, trend is being used instead of a reference to the EU is consolidating before resuming the trend, a small retracment is overdue and this will see price fall before the trend continues it's long path north.

it's all a play on words, we would need to be into the low 1.40's to start considering a change in the trend is long term and not just a consolidation.
  • #3,542
  • Apr 28, 2008 11:12am Apr 28, 2008 11:12am
Quoting Matrixxdg
My exact thoughts.... My two daughters are grown... but I have a 4 YO grandson. I guess I'll have to wait a year to determine the trend.

  • #3,543
  • Apr 28, 2008 12:00pm Apr 28, 2008 12:00pm
Below is some analysis I have done, but being a complete newcomer to the world of Forex and trading a general (currently have a demo portfolio only), I may well be seeing things that aren't actually important! So feel free to point out my errors...

Entry at 1.5700, being an area with recent resistance, as well as providing resistance and support in the last month.

Price target 1 is 1.5800 as A. It is the closest round number to the 50% Fib (from all-time high to low of 1.555), B. There is a lot of activity around that on the 4hr, and C. It is a point of resistance on the weekly. Price target 2 is 1.5900.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4hr.JPG Size: 55 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: daily.JPG Size: 50 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: weekly.JPG Size: 43 KB
  • #3,544
  • Apr 28, 2008 12:58pm Apr 28, 2008 12:58pm
Quoting zoopy
Ok... it was only a matter of time before indicators were going to start popping up. For those that are confused as to how to determine the trend, read the following posted by Jacko.

 DETERMINE THE TIME FRAME THAT YOU WANT TO TRADE.

1. If the graph on the chart starts in the bottom left hand corner and ends in the top right hand corner, the market is going UP.
2. If the graph on the chart starts in the top left hand corner and ends in the bottom right hand corner, the market is going DOWN.
3. If you are still confused, print it off and show it to a 5 year old...they will get it right EVERY time...LOL

As far as I know, you do NOT need an indicator to do this. If a 5 year old can do this, I'm sure everyone of us is capable of doing it too lol.
I just find it easier to look at an indicator that gives me 5 or more time frames than to look at 5 or more charts. All the indicator tells me is what #1 and #2 say. No fancy calculations, just up/down and by how much.
  • #3,545
  • Apr 28, 2008 1:17pm Apr 28, 2008 1:17pm
Quoting SBrickman
I just find it easier to look at an indicator that gives me 5 or more time frames than to look at 5 or more charts. All the indicator tells me is what #1 and #2 say. No fancy calculations, just up/down and by how much.
Fair enough.

The problem I have with indicators especially the one you posted (btw, this is not directed at you in any way but the indicator shown and those that are similar), is that it doesn't give me valuable information when it comes to price behaviour. Price has a certain rhythm when it approaches a round number and that can't be seen on a daily chart as well as it can on a 4 hour or 1 hour.

For example... lets say the indicator says to buy because price shot up at the beginning of the hour without a retracement. Chances are most using the indicator would buy if the signal was there. I wouldn't buy because I know it's a possible trap based on what I see on the 1 hour chart. That to me is valuable information especially when it comes down to placing a trade.
  • #3,546
  • Apr 28, 2008 1:26pm Apr 28, 2008 1:26pm
Quoting zoopy
Fair enough.

The problem I have with indicators especially the one you posted (btw, this is not directed at you in any way but the indicator shown and those that are similar), is that it doesn't give me valuable information when it comes to price behaviour. Price has a certain rhythm when it approaches a round number and that can't be seen on a daily chart as well as it can on a 4 hour or 1 hour.

For example... lets say the indicator says to buy because price shot up at the beginning of the hour without a retracement. Chances are most using the indicator would buy if the signal was there. I wouldn't buy because I know it's a possible trap based on what I see on the 1 hour chart. That to me is valuable information especially when it comes down to placing a trade.
Hey Zoop...I have to concur. Price Action is king and until I got rid of all my indicators and started concentrating on the charts.... I didn't see it I was waiting for the indicator to tell me when to get in.

My 2 cents.

MG
  • #3,547
  • Apr 28, 2008 1:32pm Apr 28, 2008 1:32pm
http://i31.tinypic.com/n3kkk5.gif

I don't see it as "either / or". I see it as "both". The indicators just tell me what's going on. They are not trade triggers. One must find what works best for them, agreed?

In the chart, I am comparing current price to open price 1 bar ago and 60 bars ago on the time frames. I can see when the trends match and can select my entry. This keeps me out of counter trend trades.
  • #3,548
  • Apr 28, 2008 1:36pm Apr 28, 2008 1:36pm
Quoting zoopy
Fair enough.

The problem I have with indicators especially the one you posted (btw, this is not directed at you in any way but the indicator shown and those that are similar), is that it doesn't give me valuable information when it comes to price behaviour. Price has a certain rhythm when it approaches a round number and that can't be seen on a daily chart as well as it can on a 4 hour or 1 hour.

For example... lets say the indicator says to buy because price shot up at the beginning of the hour without a retracement. Chances are most using the indicator would buy if the signal was there. I wouldn't buy because I know it's a possible trap based on what I see on the 1 hour chart. That to me is valuable information especially when it comes down to placing a trade.
I agree. That's why I have the trend and heat on M1, M5, M15, M30 and H1 so I can see if it is a trap.
  • #3,549
  • Apr 28, 2008 1:46pm Apr 28, 2008 1:46pm
Ok... here is another example. Maybe this will demonstrate more clearly why I'm against indicators because of the "lag factor".

I have provided a weekly chart of the eurchf. The trend is clearly DOWN. However... look at the monthly chart. We had a break of the trendline, it came back to retest the broken trendline and now we're headed up. If I was using only the daily chart, there is NO way I would have known that we could have experienced that bounce up.

Anyways... I'm not going to go further with this discussion on indicators because for starters Jacko doesn't use them and it has nothing to do with his methodology.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchf_weekly.gif Size: 12 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchf_monthly.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #3,550
  • Apr 28, 2008 1:52pm Apr 28, 2008 1:52pm
Quoting SBrickman
I just find it easier to look at an indicator that gives me 5 or more time frames than to look at 5 or more charts. All the indicator tells me is what #1 and #2 say. No fancy calculations, just up/down and by how much.
Well I think it's good that SBrickman has shared his indicator with us, if only for the reason than it shows a genuine wish to share something positive with everyone else.

For Those using a trend following strategy over multiple currencies ( I don't at the moment), I think It would in fact show very quickly which might warrant the most attention first.

Personally, I like to time my entries just with price action and Fibonacci techniques which is a tad complex but a subject worthy of some study. I am often surprised at the accuracy of fibbo projections in all timeframes.

Good Trading all
  • #3,551
  • Apr 28, 2008 2:00pm Apr 28, 2008 2:00pm
I took the time to read this thread in it's entirety and have taken successful trades (and unsuccessful) using "Jackos" method.His method of trading is refreshingly simple and actually makes sense but lately the thread has been polluted with petty arguments and those that insist upon using indicators.I would like to make a plea that we return to the basics before the thread dies. It would seem that the recent drop of the EUR/USD has been a bit of a curve ball for many, I would like to see some discussion an how we should handle this within "Jacko's" rules.
Cheers.
  • #3,552
  • Apr 28, 2008 2:08pm Apr 28, 2008 2:08pm
Quoting zoopy
Ok... here is another example. Maybe this will demonstrate more clearly why I'm against indicators because of the "lag factor".

I have provided a weekly chart of the eurchf. The trend is clearly DOWN. However... look at the monthly chart. We had a break of the trendline, it came back to retest the broken trendline and now we're headed up. If I was using only the daily chart, there is NO way I would have known that we could have experienced that bounce up.

Anyways... I'm not going to go further with this discussion on indicators because for starters Jacko doesn't use them and it has nothing to do with his methodology.
The indicators I am using do not lag. They simple compare current price to open price[x periods ago] to determine trend AS PER JACKO'S teachings. I agree that using multiple time frames whether chart, indicators or both, is useful.

How many of you are still using a Horse & Buggy?
  • #3,553
  • Apr 28, 2008 2:08pm Apr 28, 2008 2:08pm
Quoting edge540
I took the time to read this thread in it's entirety and have taken successful trades (and unsuccessful) using "Jackos" method.His method of trading is refreshingly simple and actually makes sense but lately the thread has been polluted with petty arguments and those that insist upon using indicators.I would like to make a plea that we return to the basics before the thread dies. It would seem that the recent drop of the EUR/USD has been a bit of a curve ball for many, I would like to see some discussion an how we should handle this within "Jacko's" rules.
Cheers.
Absolutely

Its really not that difficult

Don't overcomplicate it and make it harder than it has to be

Remember - leave your brain at the door!
  • #3,554
  • Apr 28, 2008 2:10pm Apr 28, 2008 2:10pm
Quoting edge540
I took the time to read this thread in it's entirety and have taken successful trades (and unsuccessful) using "Jackos" method.His method of trading is refreshingly simple and actually makes sense but lately the thread has been polluted with petty arguments and those that insist upon using indicators.I would like to make a plea that we return to the basics before the thread dies. It would seem that the recent drop of the EUR/USD has been a bit of a curve ball for many, I would like to see some discussion an how we should handle this within "Jacko's" rules.
Cheers.
I guess zippers aren't allowed here either. BUTTONS ONLY?
  • #3,555
  • Apr 28, 2008 2:14pm Apr 28, 2008 2:14pm
Quoting cruze2005
Lets hope so. Would be nice to move up a little after a couple of days of bear activity. Not too worried if it doesnt. I only have a small position. I dont normally trade mondays but seeing as there is not much else to do I thought I would have a look at the charts and see what is happening.

No relevence to the this thread but I have a position on the GBP/JPY which is up about 50 pips, So if one keeps going and the other doesnt I may still end up in positive territory which is always a nice way to start the week
cruze

Seems price has broke up to 5660 and is holding there.

Interesting price action leading up to it. I've attached the 30M chart for you to see. I know we are not supposed to trade these TF but I watch them out of interest. Also shows up equally well right down to 5M.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart.JPG Size: 83 KB
  • #3,556
  • Apr 28, 2008 2:15pm Apr 28, 2008 2:15pm
Quoting edge540
I took the time to read this thread in it's entirety and have taken successful trades (and unsuccessful) using "Jackos" method.His method of trading is refreshingly simple and actually makes sense but lately the thread has been polluted with petty arguments and those that insist upon using indicators.I would like to make a plea that we return to the basics before the thread dies. It would seem that the recent drop of the EUR/USD has been a bit of a curve ball for many, I would like to see some discussion an how we should handle this within "Jacko's" rules.
Cheers.
Edge

When you find your daily trendlines break as is the case with the euro, start to look at the following:

1. weekly trendlines
2. 50.0% fib retracement on the weekly
3. If there are any daily support levels, start marking them down.

Once you have the above mapped out, just wait until price approaches and watch for the round numbers.

Not sure what other members of the group do but this is how I approach it. Please feel free to add or comment on.
  • #3,557
  • Apr 28, 2008 2:18pm Apr 28, 2008 2:18pm
Quoting edge540
His method of trading is refreshingly simple and actually makes sense but lately the thread has been polluted with petty arguments and those that insist upon using indicators.I would like to make a plea that we return to the basics before the thread dies.
Here....Here Edge. I agree 100%. Jacko left Daily FX for this simple reason. He got fed up with the BS. I find I do not frequent this thread as much even though this is the only way I trade now for this simple reason.

My 2 Cents.

MG
  • #3,558
  • Apr 28, 2008 2:20pm Apr 28, 2008 2:20pm
Quoting zoopy
Edge

When you find your daily trendlines break as is the case with the euro, start to look at the following:

1. weekly trendlines
2. 50.0% fib retracement on the weekly
3. If there are any daily support levels, start marking them down.

Once you have the above mapped out, just wait until price approaches and watch for the round numbers.

Not sure what other members of the group do but this is how I approach it. Please feel free to add or comment on.
Thanks for sharing.

By the way, 1.5621 is the 23% fib retrace off the YTD daily high of 1.6018.
  • #3,559
  • Apr 28, 2008 2:35pm Apr 28, 2008 2:35pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting SBrickman
I guess zippers aren't allowed here either. BUTTONS ONLY?
when ones out with ones horse, ones buttons must be highly polished.LOL

on a serious note, though your indicator is showing to you the trend, it tells others it's ok to discuss another indicator they like, and thus the thread dies.

for you it works for most we don't need it, i have access to a 3, 5 and 9 year old for confirmation of trend. futher more charts lower than 1h are not part of this system - Keep It Simple is key round here.

Our Goal is to Buy/sell the trend at the best possible price (yes this method can be used on other pairs, but here it's the EU) by selecting points on the charts using TL 50% Fib and S&R with nice round numbers, if we can learn a little about PA and financial politics along the way bonus(these are in Jacko's toolbox), but the goal is to be able to trade as little as possile and maximise the profit while spending the day enjoying life, not watching lower TF's and indicators that cannot be seen on the news channel or over the phone when you check in with your broker.

SB this is not a dig at you, but a general winge at the state of this thread.

should add that 1.5250 looks good to me, but it's gonna be a rough week
  • #3,560
  • Apr 28, 2008 2:48pm Apr 28, 2008 2:48pm
Quoting MPP
when ones out with ones horse, ones buttons must be highly polished.LOL

on a serious note, though your indicator is showing to you the trend, it tells others it's ok to discuss another indicator they like, and thus the thread dies.

for you it works for most we don't need it, i have access to a 3, 5 and 9 year old for confirmation of trend. futher more charts lower than 1h are not part of this system - Keep It Simple is key round here.

Our Goal is to Buy/sell the trend at the best possible price (yes this method can be used on other pairs, but here it's the EU) by selecting points on the charts using TL 50% Fib and S&R with nice round numbers, if we can learn a little about PA and financial politics along the way bonus(these are in Jacko's toolbox), but the goal is to be able to trade as little as possile and maximise the profit while spending the day enjoying life, not watching lower TF's and indicators that cannot be seen on the news channel or over the phone when you check in with your broker.

SB this is not a dig at you, but a general winge at the state of this thread.

should add that 1.5250 looks good to me, but it's gonna be a rough week
Yep. I think this week is going to be very choppy. In the past I've noticed NFP weeks tend to be all over the place. Wednesday's FOMC statement is probably just going to add more chop to it too. Probably a good week to take off... there's always next week. Can you believe that? I'm already thinking of taking the week off and it's only Monday LOL.
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