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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #14,041
  • Apr 28, 2008 2:23pm Apr 28, 2008 2:23pm
Quoting pipraven
akirax..
what broker is this?

Thanks
CMSFX
  • #14,042
  • Apr 28, 2008 2:24pm Apr 28, 2008 2:24pm
EUR/GBP analysis lets me to make my desision.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #14,043
  • Apr 28, 2008 2:49pm Apr 28, 2008 2:49pm
Quoting saka
Philip. I think I trade eu different from yours. I think eu has formed a HL, and the trend line(same as yours) formed from 2.8 is down there, not far away. So I think eu will go up to 21ema same as the resistant line up there.
Yes it might be going to the 21ema. I entered on the TC retrace before the candle closed. Now that it has closed and it did not go below previous candle low the possibility is there that it could go to 21ema. The fact that it could go to the 21ema was there even when I took the trade. That huge bearish candle was the motivation for the retracement entry. That is why I sold 50% after 20pips to have a stoploss of -20 on the other half giving me a BE free ride.
  • #14,044
  • Apr 28, 2008 2:57pm Apr 28, 2008 2:57pm
Quoting akirax
CMSFX
You also had nice TC signals. Nothing wrong with the signals. May you make lots of pips.
Phillip
  • #14,045
  • Apr 28, 2008 3:01pm Apr 28, 2008 3:01pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
Yes it might be going to the 21ema. I entered on the TC retrace before the candle closed. Now that it has closed and it did not go below previous candle low the possibility is there that it could go to 21ema. The fact that it could go to the 21ema was there even when I took the trade. That huge bearish candle was the motivation for the retracement entry. That is why I sold 50% after 20pips to have a stoploss of -20 on the other half giving me a BE free ride.
That's good, Philip. I aslo a little doubt the signal formed at 16:00 and let you enter at 20:00 GMT+1. This week I am work at night beijing time. I will have much more opportunity to wathc the market 16:00 to 20:00
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #14,046
  • Apr 28, 2008 3:02pm Apr 28, 2008 3:02pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
You also had nice TC signals. Nothing wrong with the signals. May you make lots of pips.
Phillip
thanks Phillip. I've been reading your posts, past and present, and have started looking for signals generated from the 4hr MACD..
  • #14,047
  • Apr 28, 2008 3:23pm Apr 28, 2008 3:23pm
Thanks for responding so quickly to my post Phillip. The reason i said that the MACD didnt confirm a pattern was based on the coloured macd that was provided with your system. I was basically going off what i saw there. At the time there was no signal for that pair on the 4hr, that's why i asked.
  • #14,048
  • Apr 28, 2008 9:02pm Apr 28, 2008 9:02pm
I just took at a the USDJPY:

The daily is on the verge of breaking above the 89 and the 4hr is in the process of forming a TC on the 4hr at the 21 which is also around the 61.8 Fib# area (using the high from about mid Feb). I see a few things here:

1) The MACD looks like it may form a sort of zero bounce here back to the upside.

2) If the 21 does not hold, the 365 and the 61.8 Fib may form a strong support level if the 21 and sends price back to the 21 before proceeding back down (per the method) which may set up for a quicker 1hr entry.

3) But, love the buts, price is in the middle of the 4hr channel right now and I like to see price at a 'predictable area' in a channel, either at the top or bottom of it.

My bias is towards the upside at least back to the 104.80 area. My 4hr still has two hours to close...I'll watch it if I'm still awake...
Attached Images
  • #14,049
  • Apr 29, 2008 1:43am Apr 29, 2008 1:43am
Yesterday was an inside bar on Euro daily and a break of the high/low of the bar should confirm the direction.
  • #14,050
  • Apr 29, 2008 1:50am Apr 29, 2008 1:50am
I took a short on the Euro TC at around 1.620. I was +27 or so before the demo i am using lost connection..........pick their moments dont they.(OANDA). Anyway, my target is a trendline at 570.See how that one goes.
  • #14,051
  • Apr 29, 2008 1:51am Apr 29, 2008 1:51am
Should read 1.5620..........
  • #14,052
  • Apr 29, 2008 2:07am Apr 29, 2008 2:07am
Thats my target reached at 570 should be +50 but OANDA is still offline........
  • #14,053
  • Apr 29, 2008 2:17am Apr 29, 2008 2:17am
That is my entry exit chart. I cant close the trade as such because i am not connected, but exit was the lower trendlline. Nice tail up to the short trendline before falling back.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,054
  • Apr 29, 2008 2:26am Apr 29, 2008 2:26am
GBPUSD
conter-trend trade was possible on Round Top
Time: GBPUSD 4:00 GMT+1
MACD: Round Top
Price: possible retracement to EMA21 after several bars with long upper shadows reaching resistance line (image 1)
Calculations:
Open price: 1.9895
SL Price: 1.9915, SL: 20 pips
TP price: 0.5/1.9875, 0.5/1.9852, TP: 32 (20, 43) pips
SINGLE OPENING.
R:R-ratio: 1.60.
Conclusion: trade is OK.
Result:
Didn't enter cos was afraid that SMA200 can be a support (though 1st target was hit, 2nd - didn't reach 1 pips). Now waiting for a possible TC if it turns up.

EURUSD
Time: GBPUSD 8:00 GMT+1
MACD: Possible bearish TC (2.5H till current 4H bar closes)
Price: after breaking down SMA89 and SMA200 price made a retracement to EMA8-EMA21 - anticipate trend continuation; price formed 2 tops, the 2nd is lower - additional "pro" (image 2)
Calculations:
Open price: 1.5595
SL Price: 1.5668, SL: 73 pips
TP price: 0.5/1.5575, 0.5/1.5505, TP: 55 (20, 90) pips
SINGLE OPENING.
R:R-ratio: 0.75.
Conclusion: trade is BAD either because of a big SL or poor R:R-ratio.
Result:
no trade at the moment, waiting till bar on 4H closes (no TC on 1H) - about 2.5 H.
Attached Images
  • #14,055
  • Apr 29, 2008 2:32am Apr 29, 2008 2:32am
napeharm,

I have had Oanda open and active since before 8.00am this morning.....is there something wrong with your computer? Hoping to be helpful...
  • #14,056
  • Apr 29, 2008 2:41am Apr 29, 2008 2:41am
Quoting Yorik
GBPUSD
conter-trend trade was possible on Round Top
Time: GBPUSD 4:00 GMT+1
MACD: Round Top
Price: possible retracement to EMA21 after several bars with long upper shadows reaching resistance line (image 1)
Calculations:
Open price: 1.9895
SL Price: 1.9915, SL: 20 pips
TP price: 0.5/1.9875, 0.5/1.9852, TP: 32 (20, 43) pips
SINGLE OPENING.
R:R-ratio: 1.60.
Conclusion: trade is OK.
Result:
Didn't enter cos was afraid that SMA200 can be a support (though 1st target was hit, 2nd - didn't reach 1 pips). Now waiting for a possible TC if it turns up.

EURUSD
Time: GBPUSD 8:00 GMT+1
MACD: Possible bearish TC (2.5H till current 4H bar closes)
Price: after breaking down SMA89 and SMA200 price made a retracement to EMA8-EMA21 - anticipate trend continuation; price formed 2 tops, the 2nd is lower - additional "pro" (image 2)
Calculations:
Open price: 1.5595
SL Price: 1.5668, SL: 73 pips
TP price: 0.5/1.5575, 0.5/1.5505, TP: 55 (20, 90) pips
SINGLE OPENING.
R:R-ratio: 0.75.
Conclusion: trade is BAD either because of a big SL or poor R:R-ratio.
Result:
no trade at the moment, waiting till bar on 4H closes (no TC on 1H) - about 2.5 H.
Decent analysis.
  • #14,057
  • Apr 29, 2008 2:42am Apr 29, 2008 2:42am
Rest of PC is fine thanks, just OANDA screwing up, happens from time to time but i dont have a money account with them........Anyway, they blessed me with a connection and i closed for +55, but realistically was around +48 or so for that trade to the trendline.
  • #14,058
  • Apr 29, 2008 2:55am Apr 29, 2008 2:55am
Quoting forexmoments
Decent analysis.
Thanks, forexmoments.
Decent but late

Just have noticed one strange thing with MACD_H4_300_v100 indicator: on EURUSD there were 2 equal bars on MACD (29.04.08 00:00 and 04:00 GMT+1, both -22.8). Shortly after 04:00 bar closed those 2 MACD bars were green (as in my analysis earlier, so I was waiting for a TC in several hours) but later, when the price went down on the current, 08:00 bar, the second of those green bars (04:00) became red, post factum so to say (see picture below).

Of course that's more my mistake/problem that I didn't take that setup (should have paid more attention to 04:00 bar) but that second green MACD bar a bit mislead me. Eh...
Attached Image
  • #14,059
  • Apr 29, 2008 3:14am Apr 29, 2008 3:14am
I got E/U TC with this huge candle.Waitting for a retracment!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj.gif Size: 28 KB
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #14,060
  • Apr 29, 2008 4:00am Apr 29, 2008 4:00am
The short movement on the Euro has broken down for the moment. The price broke the lower trendline but has pulled back inside it, so it is in a way still intact. A number of possible short exits were possible, depending on which reference points you have on your charts.

The monthly pin bar is still intact also and looking fine. This suggests to me that May could be a falling month. That does not mean the price will not make a move up to test the height of the bar previous to the pin, a level around 1.5900. In other words the price could move up before heading lower rather than simply diving past the low of the pin bar.
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