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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #3,501
  • Apr 27, 2008 8:50am Apr 27, 2008 8:50am
If we are looking at fibs we have a low on March 23rd @ 5338,
On April 25th price has gone below and closed slightly above the 50% fib.on a longer term we had a low @ 4440 making the 50% 5225....... are we going to see this market retrace that deeply?

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Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #3,502
  • Apr 27, 2008 9:12am Apr 27, 2008 9:12am
Here is a simple line chart I often use to help spot areas of support and resistance. The best way I have found to use this is to use at least two reference points (for it to be a fairly solid support/resistance area). I also try to find well defined peaks and valleys which you'll be able to see in the example below.

We did have a drop down to 1.5600 area (which happens to be a fairly decent sized valley). However, we have a more defined valley at 1.5400 which may offer more support. The problem with that area though is that there is only one reference point. We have a much stronger support at 1.4850/1.4900 area indicated by three very well defined peaks.

If price does go up and you are in a long trade, I would tread cautiously around 1.5800 as we have possible resistance there as indicated in my chart (see yellow boxed areas). This may be an area to tighten up your trailing stops just so that you lock in some of those gains.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_daily_linechart2.gif Size: 9 KB
  • #3,503
  • Apr 27, 2008 9:23am Apr 27, 2008 9:23am
I was reading over Jacko's post#4 and found something very interesting which I think may apply especially after the drop we just had and may explain some of the crazy volatility we've experienced leading up to 1.6000. See quote below...

If price is hanging around a support or resistance level, it’s likely to break in the opposite direction. (For example we know that professional traders love round numbers to target...it brightens up their dull day to push and cajole the market to a target number. Now Euro/USD 1.3000 is the roundest number there is around those levels, so the pros have gotta be saying that the big game in the industry is to now grind and push the market to 1.3000. After that they don't care, they have had their fun...and thats why a market will whip and drop/rise dramatically straight after the target has been hit).

If you look at your eurusd daily chart, you'll find that price was hovering around the 1.5900 and up for a while even though it did aggressive drops down it always came back. Once we hit that big psychological level of 1.6000, it tanked lol.
  • #3,504
  • Apr 27, 2008 12:13pm Apr 27, 2008 12:13pm
Just got a PM from Jacko. He says he has been swamped with emails, but might check the thread again shortly.

I recommend everyone delete their paranoid posts about "Jacko's not coming back because the thread sucks."
  • #3,505
  • Apr 27, 2008 3:55pm Apr 27, 2008 3:55pm
Quoting tdion
Just got a PM from Jacko. He says he has been swamped with emails, but might check the thread again shortly.

I recommend everyone delete their paranoid posts about "Jacko's not coming back because the thread sucks."
I say why do that? It is the reality of it,Jacko left this thread and it went to crap.If he wants to bring it back up on it's feet then great.If not well you see what happens when you act the fool!
  • #3,506
  • Edited 4:39pm Apr 27, 2008 4:06pm | Edited 4:39pm
Quoting zoopy
I was reading over Jacko's post#4 and found something very interesting which I think may apply especially after the drop we just had and may explain some of the crazy volatility we've experienced leading up to 1.6000. See quote below...

If price is hanging around a support or resistance level, it’s likely to break in the opposite direction. (For example we know that professional traders love round numbers to target...it brightens up their dull day to push and cajole the market to a target number. Now Euro/USD 1.3000 is the roundest number there is around those levels, so the pros have gotta be saying that the big game in the industry is to now grind and push the market to 1.3000. After that they don't care, they have had their fun...and thats why a market will whip and drop/rise dramatically straight after the target has been hit).

If you look at your eurusd daily chart, you'll find that price was hovering around the 1.5900 and up for a while even though it did aggressive drops down it always came back. Once we hit that big psychological level of 1.6000, it tanked lol.
I appreciate your recent posts Zoopy...


By the way to those that say that Jacko has left this thread I think that's way too premature. Let us not forget the fair warning Jacko gave us on 4-15-08 here and on some other threads. If that doesn't speak volumes to us all (for a few weeks, he he) then God help us. LOL!

I have not traded this pair since 4-17-08 and I'm still standing on the sidelines as this puppy may still have some down room for me to get in at some greater wholesale prices.

Anyways, I doubt Jacko's plan is to post here on a daily basis, if folks need Jacko's constant input then simply join his private group already...

Quoting jacko
I repeat :

Be VERY careful...The ECB wants the Euro below where it is !!!!!!


But I could be wwwrong !!!
Quoting jacko
Hi quecee,

I, personally, am not short the euro, but some of my group are short from 1.5860.

I think that the Euro and GBP may recover slightly, but I don't see 1.6000 just yet.

I think that the ECB is getting impatient. And they would NOT have been impressed by the market recovery from the gap down over the weekend.

.
Quoting jacko
The ECB will act much faster than that. (within the next two weeks...and sooner rather than later)

They jawboned the market on the weekend....the market dropped but then started to recover .....the ECB would have been very annoyed by that (they had sent a subtle message to the market at the G7 meeting and the market attempted to trade against it...) so they will start cranking up the pressure to get the Euro lower.

If the market doesn't get the hint, or worse, tries to trade against it, the ECB will slap the market hard.

But the main issue is that the ECB wants the EUR/USD lower.


Just my opinion...and I could be wwwwrong !!!
.
Quoting jacko
Hi quecee,

Hmmm, I must admit that am not a fan of the Elliot wave theory (5 cycles). For me it does not have enough statistical significance to use in a trading methodology.



I think that the ECB wants the EUR/USD much lower...and they want it to happen soon.!!!

1. The ECB quietly jawboned the market on the weekend and it gapped down 150 pips (that is a significant "gap" for the Euro)

2..If they lower the interest rates the Euro will drop like a stone.

3. If the ECB is still not happy with the Euro's price, then they will "intervene" in the market (that's polite talk for selling the crap out of it and buying USDs)....and you do NOT want to be on the wrong side if that happens

.
  • #3,507
  • Apr 27, 2008 4:13pm Apr 27, 2008 4:13pm
Quoting zoopy
Here is a simple line chart I often use to help spot areas of support and resistance. The best way I have found to use this is to use at least two reference points (for it to be a fairly solid support/resistance area). I also try to find well defined peaks and valleys which you'll be able to see in the example below.

We did have a drop down to 1.5600 area (which happens to be a fairly decent sized valley). However, we have a more defined valley at 1.5400 which may offer more support. The problem with that area though is that there is only one reference point. We have a much stronger support at 1.4850/1.4900 area indicated by three very well defined peaks.

If price does go up and you are in a long trade, I would tread cautiously around 1.5800 as we have possible resistance there as indicated in my chart (see yellow boxed areas). This may be an area to tighten up your trailing stops just so that you lock in some of those gains.
Wow! I just got through the entire thread. I have resisted positing so far for 2 reasons - 1. I tend to be a lurker and I like it that way and 2. I found that just about every question I had was answered a few posts later. I would strongly encourage anyone new to this thread to take some time (quite a lot actually) and read the entire thread - there are many, many great nuggets of info scattered throughout this thread.

I have to give a HUGE thank you to Jacko for starting this thread. I have already started to use some of the principles he has talked about (weaning myself from indicators, looking at the trend, looking at longer term charts) in my present trading. I have already seen improvement!

Now I am trying to take the next step and really start to focus on one main pair - EU. I am trying to find a good price point to stalk for an entry. I have 2 thoughts and I would love if someone would like to share their thoughts as well. My first thought is if 5600 holds as support, look for a long position at 5650. My second thought is if 5600 fails, then look for a long on the test of 5400. Obviously, neither of these scenarios might work, but that's why we have AH!

Again thanks to everybody who posts here, and especially Jacko and his turtles for all the knowledge you have shared. I am very excited about the path my trading is about to start on!

-Brian
  • #3,508
  • Apr 27, 2008 6:09pm Apr 27, 2008 6:09pm
thanks zoopy ..for a breath of fresh air into the thread..

i like this thread as i consider this thread the ' specialist ' for E/U.. ( for me )..

Quote
Originally Posted by jacko http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=1952437#post1952437)
I repeat :

Be VERY careful...The ECB wants the Euro below where it is !!!!!!


But I could be wwwrong !!!
that is why i asked earlier..coz when trading , i like to know the fundies as well..' where it is ' - does anyone have ANY idea what ' where it is ' at..what price..no one knows as of now.

Quote
I was reading over Jacko's post#4 and found something very interesting which I think may apply especially after the drop we just had and may explain some of the crazy volatility we've experienced leading up to 1.6000. See quote below...

If price is hanging around a support or resistance level, it’s likely to break in the opposite direction. (For example we know that professional traders love round numbers to target...it brightens up their dull day to push and cajole the market to a target number. Now Euro/USD 1.3000 is the roundest number there is around those levels, so the pros have gotta be saying that the big game in the industry is to now grind and push the market to 1.3000. After that they don't care, they have had their fun...and thats why a market will whip and drop/rise dramatically straight after the target has been hit).

If you look at your eurusd daily chart, you'll find that price was hovering around the 1.5900 and up for a while even though it did aggressive drops down it always came back. Once we hit that big psychological level of 1.6000, it tanked lol. posted by zoopy
- this is almost always true...i always remember this..that is why you see double tops or bottoms, or triple at times..

Quote
Originally Posted by jacko http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=1952671#post1952671)
Hi quecee,

Hmmm, I must admit that am not a fan of the Elliot wave theory (5 cycles). For me it does not have enough statistical significance to use in a trading methodology.



I think that the ECB wants the EUR/USD much lower...and they want it to happen soon.!!!

1. The ECB quietly jawboned the market on the weekend and it gapped down 150 pips (that is a significant "gap" for the Euro)

2..If they lower the interest rates the Euro will drop like a stone.

3. If the ECB is still not happy with the Euro's price, then they will "intervene" in the market (that's polite talk for selling the crap out of it and buying USDs)....and you do NOT want to be on the wrong side if that happens
right now, all of us here, please...let us know asap if you hear any latest news where the EU is heading..its good to know & be in early for a new major trend..if it happens..also to manage ur R/R & MM..
make money up or down...whatever ! :
  • #3,509
  • Apr 27, 2008 8:20pm Apr 27, 2008 8:20pm
Quoting ferose
right now, all of us here, please...let us know asap if you hear any latest news where the EU is heading..its good to know & be in early for a new major trend..if it happens..also to manage ur R/R & MM..
I'd be a little cautious with this approach, ESPECIALLY trying to trade news. Trade what's on your charts instead. Also... there is no need to be in the major trend "early". Rather let it develop first, then trade it. Trying to be in early is probably the most dangerous approach you could take because then you're essentially trying to pick bottoms/tops.
  • #3,510
  • Apr 27, 2008 8:23pm Apr 27, 2008 8:23pm
Quoting zoopy
I'd be a little cautious with this approach, ESPECIALLY trying to trade news. Trade what's on your charts instead. Also... there is no need to be in the major trend "early". Rather let it develop first, then trade it. Trying to be in early is probably the most dangerous approach you could take because then you're essentially trying to pick bottoms/tops.
ok zoopy... point taken..thanks..
make money up or down...whatever ! :
  • #3,511
  • Apr 27, 2008 8:24pm Apr 27, 2008 8:24pm
Quoting bdrex95
I would strongly encourage anyone new to this thread to take some time (quite a lot actually) and read the entire thread - there are many, many great nuggets of info scattered throughout this thread.
Very true. Good advice.
  • #3,512
  • Apr 27, 2008 11:14pm Apr 27, 2008 11:14pm
http://i25.tinypic.com/n49heh.gif


I like this simple approach.
  • #3,513
  • Apr 27, 2008 11:38pm Apr 27, 2008 11:38pm
Quoting SBrickman
I like this simple approach.
Good luck with that...
  • #3,514
  • Apr 27, 2008 11:39pm Apr 27, 2008 11:39pm
Quoting SBrickman
I like this simple approach.
LOL, I dont know what the hell this means. Sorry Sbrickman, we are a EUR/USD thread and we follow Jacko's method of trading... Thanks but no thanks...
Live From Los Angeles
  • #3,515
  • Apr 27, 2008 11:58pm Apr 27, 2008 11:58pm
Well I'm currently seeing massive resistance at the 5670 area right now in the Tokyo session.

Trichet speaks in 3 minutes from now, perhaps this will spark the impetus needed to break through the resistance line and put us back onto that bull trend that has been nicely developing so far tonight.
  • #3,516
  • Apr 28, 2008 6:07am Apr 28, 2008 6:07am
Quoting panhandler
LOL, I dont know what the hell this means. Sorry Sbrickman, we are a EUR/USD thread and we follow Jacko's method of trading... Thanks but no thanks...
I thought Jacko's method could be applied to any (MAJOR) pair.

As I understand, Jacko's definition of TREND, that's what is shown.
  • #3,517
  • Apr 28, 2008 6:10am Apr 28, 2008 6:10am
Patiently waiting and saw a big push back up from 5600 as price got down there.
  • #3,518
  • Apr 28, 2008 6:21am Apr 28, 2008 6:21am
Quoting SBrickman
I thought Jacko's method could be applied to any (MAJOR) pair.

As I understand, Jacko's definition of TREND, that's what is shown.
Yes this method can be applied to any pair. It really is a basic system and as Jacko has mentioned, it is the way the big fish trade (ie no indicators, just basics with trend/S and R)

This thread is dedicated to the Eur/Usd, but i do trade a few other pairs, however only post my interests on the Eur/Usd with this thread.

Hope this helps
  • #3,519
  • Apr 28, 2008 6:30am Apr 28, 2008 6:30am
Quoting takeprofit
Patiently waiting and saw a big push back up from 5600 as price got down there.
I am thinking this may still run down. As much as we have seen some positive price action in the early part of trading, since london open we have seen those early spikes turn to 2 side by side dojis. We still have some room before the next trend line comes into play around 5860-80 so price could continue to head south then next support line comes in much lower at around 5511.

Just patiently waiting a nice reversal setup at a whole number before I think of entering

Max
  • #3,520
  • Apr 28, 2008 6:34am Apr 28, 2008 6:34am
Quoting cruze2005
Yes this method can be applied to any pair. It really is a basic system and as Jacko has mentioned, it is the way the big fish trade (ie no indicators, just basics with trend/S and R)

This thread is dedicated to the Eur/Usd, but i do trade a few other pairs, however only post my interests on the Eur/Usd with this thread.

Hope this helps
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