Malaysia

New York, April 25th. The dollar"s perfect bullish storm from Thursday of expectations of less Fed accommodation, rising stock prices and rising bond yields has gone into reverse to some extent to end the week, in part as very recent spec shorts cover ahead of the week and long-term bulls pick up what they see as bargains, but also on some sober reassessing of risks.

Today"s Reuters/Univ of Mich Sentiment index dip to 62.6 vs the 63.2 preliminary reading for April served as a reminder that the US economy is under duress, but the survey also showed inflation expectations rising 4.8% from 4.3% for the next year, while the 5-yr forecast went to 3.2% from 2.9%. Rising inflation expectations are being reinforced by expanding press coverage of isolated food rice spikes in some sectors of the US and abroad. The Fed will not take kindly to rising inflation expectations and may have to fight inflation regardless of the housing-led recession. A case can also be made that rising inflation is feeding global political instability and can best be attacked by tighter monetary policy from the Fed.

EUR/USD has rallied from the 1.5556 overnight low to 1.5665 last, but faces heavier resistance in the 1.5700 vicinity, although stops are seen on a clear breakout beyond there. -
[email protected]
[Emphasis added]
欧元兑美元：周末前美元反弹失去动力


周四美元的强劲反弹在周末失去动力，美国4月密歇根大学消费者信心指数跌落，但报告细节显示通胀预期走高。欧元/美元从1.5556低点上涨到1.5665，但在1.5700阻力强劲，上方有止损。

EUR/USD TRADING
Corrective gains against the short trade on oversold bullish divergence buy on the intraday charts capped at 1.5667. The daily and weekly charts are sporting overbought bearish divergence sell signals that clearly trump the intraday buys. Close below 1.5672 reverses the nominal weekly uptrend. Our target is the 38.2% Fibo at 1.5367. 15-yr cycle top eyed too. (RD) 19:43 GMT [3:43 am M'sia time]

GBP/USD
A bullish outside day has exposed the range highs by 2.0025 with the pair also managing to trade back above the 50-Day SMA. However, will need to see a break above 2.0025 to shift our bias to the upside with the latter level expected to cap gains. The ATR of 187 pts has already been exceeded today opening the latest pullback triggering an hourly double top. (JK) 19:35 GMT

USD/CHF
Strategy: [email protected] Opportunity missed overnight to exit the long trade with a profit when the 1.0430 highs from Mar 4 and 5 capped prices. Long was stopped out on the break below 1.0335. 1.0300 has since held and prompted a rebound. Close above 1.0353 is a weekly reversal of the downtrend begun with the Dec high at 1.1605. 1.0430 and 1.0170 are big pivots. (RD) 19:47 GMT

USD/JPY
Strategy: [email protected] We decided to book 40 pts profit on our long trade after prices only produced a minor breakout beyond the 104.65 prior trend high o/n and faltered ahead of key rsst at 105. Dailies remain bullish but face the 2% MA Env teamed up with the 105 figure hurdle. Weak hourly buy from 103.90 lifting prices again. Buy a dip to 104.20. (RD) 19:49 GMT

USD/CAD
Strategy: [email protected] The pair continues to trade within the multi-week range defined by 1.0380 and 0.9710. However, latest bounce out from the mid-range at 0.9990 suggests a higher low in place by the latter for a retest of the range highs. Moving averages are coiling all within 100pts often indicative of a major breakout which could be to topside. (JK) 19:39 GMT

U.S. Economic Analysis

17:23 US ECON: The Week Ahead in US Economics Boston, April 25.

Bottom Line If April showers bring May flowers, we hope they also bring
rice, wheat, and other commodities that are in short supply. Nevertheless, dark clouds over the economic horizon appear to be lifting as markets eschew continued bad news on housing and inflation. Treasury yields have risen sharply amid the likelihood of more short-end supply (we expect Treasury to reinstate the 1-year bill in May and the 3-year note in November) and in the expectation that any Fed rate cut on April 30 will be the last of the easing cycle. Odds of a 25 bps cut to a 2.00% Fed funds rate are now just 76%, below what our research suggests is enough for the FOMC to feel it must act upon in order to meet market expectations. Wednesday's policy statement will upstage Friday's payroll report but the communiqu should be provisional, allowing the Fed to either resume or remove monetary accommodation at will.

There's plenty of upcoming economic news, though the most consequential indicators come after the start of the Fed's 2-day policy setting meeting. Our data picks are Q1 GDP (Wed), April ISM (Thu) and April payrolls (Fri).


Sterling Outlook
Looking ahead, much of the focus in the coming week will be on the Fed and the direction it decides to take with its policy. Many market participants are now starting to speculate that the central bank is now very close to the end of its monetary easing cycle. This should generate fresh USD buying across the board and most likely will continue to weigh on sterling with the UK economy still showing more room for economic deterioration and additional rate cuts.
More setbacks are expected in EUR/GBP. [email protected]


Euro Outlook
All eyes are on the FOMC midweek, with Eurozone CPI and Retail Sales data kicking the data parade off on Monday. US Q1 GDP is due out Wed, along with Chicago PMI, and seen the last influence ahead of the FOMC verdict that afternoon, with forecasts now centered on a 25bp cut and language limiting expectations for further cuts due to rising inflation. (RLD)

At present it is the short-term element of certainty that causes the US dollar short line strong bounce. Market selective digestion on US dollar favorable factor cannot continue to support the US dollar bounce effectively, moreover this kind of digestion is relatively frail, once has recent data demonstrates disadvantageous onUS dollar, then US dollar will return the bear market. Moreover, the euro exchange rate overestimation's opinion can suppress the euro short line to, so long as but the European Central Bank continues to maintain the interest rate to be invariable, the rest difference superiority will support the euro. 　　

Next week attention is to be focused on Tuesday and Wednesday's Federal Reserve conference, although the present market tendency anticipated that the Federal Reserve does not reduce the interest rate, but there is still greatly possibility that Federal Reserve to favor continuing to reduce the interest rate 25 basic points. Moreover, Monday European Central Bank president, Euro group president and so on attend economical congress and Wednesday Japan Central Bank monetary policy conference also needs to pay key attention.


美元短线反弹走强
目前都是短期的不确定因素引起美元的短线强劲反弹。市场选择性的消化美元有利因素并不能有效支持美元持续的反弹，而且这种消化动因相对脆弱，一旦有新数据显示不利美元，那么美元将重新回归跌势。另外，关于欧元汇率高估的言论尽管短线能够打压欧元兑美元汇率，但是只要欧洲央行继续维持利率不变，息差优势将支持欧元。
下周最需要关注是周二和周三的美联储会议，尽管目前市场倾向消化美联储不降息的预期，但是仍有较大可能美联储倾向继续降息25个基点。另外，周一欧洲央行行长，欧元集团主席等参加经济大会和周三日本央行货币政策会议也需要重点留意。

Was just wondering where you got this material.

Hi guys,

Been busy with work for the past 48 hrs, no chance to visit thread at all! doing some weekend reading to catch up.


Hi SC,

He got it from one of the brokers that he opened an account with.I dont remember which; maybe you can pm him personally.

Hi wakli!

apa khabar pagi ni! ("how are you this morning" in malay language)

The one you quote is from China FX Analyst. It is originally in Chinese, I have to do a rough translation.

It is good to have report from China, so that we can have a different view.

If you can read Chinese, there are plenty of website provides FX analysis. Some write their own, some translate from US or European source.

Some of the reports are rather contradictory and hard to find a consensus as to the direction of the eurusd pair early next week. Anybody good at decipher this stuff and make some sense out of what these analyses are trying to say?

Bill Lipschutz

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Bill Lipschutz is a foreign exchange market (forex) trader and the co-founder and Director of Portfolio Management at Hathersage Capital Management.

Early Life and Education

Lipschutz was born and raised in Farmingdale, New York. He earned outstanding grades throughout junior high and high school. One of his favorite subjects was math. Lipschutz had an interest in tennis and became an avid tennis player.[1]
Lipschutz attended Cornell University and earned a Bachelor's degree in Fine Arts from their Architectural Design program after five years. He simultaneously enrolled in business classes and earned an MBA in finance in 1982 from the Johnson School of Management, also at Cornell University.[citation needed]

Early career

Lipschutz’ career as a forex trader may have started by accident. While at Cornell University, Lipschutz inherited $12,000 worth of stock after his grandmother’s death.[2] In his inheritance, there were over 100 different stocks in numerous locations. It cost Lipschutz a substantial sum in fees in order to liquidate and consolidate the risk capital into one location.
While attending school, he began investing the risk capital in his free time. He would spend hours in the library, researching and reading everything possible regarding the market. This research increased his interest in financial trading, and his portfolio was eventually worth close to $250,000. The great success was however short lived, as the risk capital was virtually blown with one bad decision and a turn on the market. Lipschutz considered the loss a valuable learning experience to apply to any future investments. Through his college career, Lipschutz became more interested in the stock trading and continued to pursue it with success, while leaving his architectural degree behind.[2]
During the time spent at Cornell, he met his wife, Lynelle Jones, who was working for economist Henry Kaufman as a research assistant. Lipschutz interned for Kaufman and Salomon Brothers before graduating in 1982. He joined Salomon Brothers as a full time employee in May 1982.[2]

Career

During a Salomon Brothers training program Lipschutz was pulled aside and asked to be a part of the newly formed Foreign Exchange (or forex trading or FX for short) Department. Salomon Brothers created a team of their brightest traders, came up with a workable plan for learning currency trading and hit the market running.[2]
The foreign exchange markets took off about the same time Salomon Brothers were jumping into the market. Lipschutz became a powerhouse with the Philadelphia Stock Exchange, where the majority of forex trading took place. At the peak of his career, Lipschutz had 50% of all the currency option volume on the Philadelphia Stock Exchange and 80% of all open interest option.[citation needed] He was considered to be amongst the top five of all forex traders worldwide.[citation needed] By 1985, Lipschutz was pulling in $300 million per year for Salomon Brothers.[3]
Lipschutz was the principal trader for Salomon Brothers’ proprietary foreign exchange account from 1984 until he left in June 1990. In 1988, he was appointed a Director of Salomon Brothers, heading the Global Foreign Exchange Options Group and the New York Foreign Exchange Trading Desk. In 1989 he was named the Managing Director and Global Head of Foreign Exchange.[4]
Despite his enormous successes, Lipschutz left Salomon Brothers. He felt they were becoming too large and were losing their appeal as a cultural institution. He opted for early retirement. His retirement did not last long. Currency trading was becoming bigger and more profitable than bonds or stocks, and Lipschutz took it on.[citation needed]
Briefly in 1990 Lipschutz went to work as the President and CEO for the North Tower Group, a subsidiary of the Merrill Lynch Corporation. Then in 1991 he founded Rowayton Capital Management, an asset and management firm where he was the President and CEO until 1995.[4]
In 1995, with former Cornell classmates Lipschutz formed Hathersage, a currency hedge fund manager company where he is the Principal and Director of Portfolio Management. The company, a $200 million dollar company, manages only fourteen investors. It is run out of his home, and the homes of several of his employees. Together with his friends, and his wife, there are seven employees total. Each has a very specific role in the company and its day to day operations to make it successful.[5]

Awards & Recognition

Lipschutz was inducted into the Trader Monthly Hall of Fame in October 2006.[citation needed]
Lipschutz has been featured in two print books about exceptional market traders. The first was The New Market Wizards: Conversations with America’s Top Traders by Jack D. Schwager. Written in 1992, it features several of the top market traders from the 1980s and 1990s.[4] The second was written by Alpesh B. Patel in 1998.[4]

Bill Lipschutz ... just gave me inspiration to STRIVE harder for success.

That's a great idea, bro! what a good example and inspirations for traders..

Hi Guys..........
This is my Analyst for Moday ....I'm Flat in this moment....I don't have a good signal for enter...I have close my long........

Graph 1......the the trend is in stand bye......but for this moment no enter in the top trend.......

Graph 2 ......identiacl situation...is probabily not finish the up trend.....or is possible the consolidated trend..........

Graph 3......My firt Alarm for the possible switch Trend is ok........in the withe circle.....

PATIENCE.......The trend is your Firend!!!

Good week end for all.......
Bye........

If every one thinks alike, then, if every one is the winner, who will be the loser.

It is exactly this kind of dicrepancy that create opportunity and risk for the better man to win -- of which all of us trying to train ourselves to be proved to be worthy of the award.

• The USD rebounds, or was it the EUR finally stalling?
• So what has really changed? Lots and not so much
• Key data and events next week: FOMC, ISM & NFP

You got a good point there. But all the conflicting information creates a lot of fear and confusion. How do you think one can use it productively?

The USD rebounds, or was it the EUR finally stalling?

Many in the media and the market are pointing to the USD’s gains this week as a turnaround for the beleaguered greenback. But I think a better way to view this past week’s developments is in the context of sudden shifts in ECB rate expectations. Recall that over the last several weeks markets had been pricing out the prospect of anticipated ECB easing, both in light of repeated ECB warnings and resilient Eurozone data, which led to a steady rise in the EUR. Then, early this past week, some ECB officials went so far as to suggest that the ECB might even need to raise rates to fully combat inflation, and that led to a surge higher in EUR, which saw EUR/USD crest 1.6000 very briefly. I can almost imagine the phone line lighting up between the ECB in Frankfurt and the Banque De France (BdF) in Paris with an enraged Trichet calling Noyer to take back his comments that a rate hike might happen. The reaction was swift—Noyer the very same day held an interview with the WSJ in which he retracted his comments, saying they had been “over-interpreted” by the market. The very next day, ECB Pres. Trichet came out and unequivocally declared that the current ECB rate was sufficient to ensure price stability, pointedly noting that was ‘the view of the governing council.’ The market reaction over this period saw reluctant asset managers, many who had stepped to the sidelines after the repeated failure of EUR/USD to take out the 1.6000 level, react to the hawkish comments from Noyer and others on Tuesday , and pile into long EUR/USD positions as it broke above 1.5950, finally pushing it over the 1.6000 level. The rug was pulled out from under them after Noyer back-tracked and after a final try at 1.6000, EUR longs took it between the eyes on Thursday with a weaker German IFO corporate sentiment survey and Trichet’s steady rate comments. The great bailout from 1.6000 was on. The move lower was complemented by jawboning from EU finance chief Juncker and some ‘not as bad as expected’ data out of the US (weekly jobless claims and durable goods orders). Looked at from this perspective, the moves seem to make better sense. It also helps explain why the EUR (and CHF) has seen a significant adjustment lower against other key currencies (e.g. GBP and JPY), while the USD remains relatively range-bound against those same currencies.


So what has really changed? Lots and not so much.
• Cracks appear in the Eurozone’s economic façade—The April German IFO disappointment (business climate 102.4 vs. exp. 104.3 and prior 104.8) was preceded by an unexpected plunge in Belgian business confidence from +1.20 to minus -7.9, its lowest level since late 2005. Since when does anyone care about Belgian data? Belgium (and the Benelux in general) is heavily reliant on trade and the steep drop is seen as an indication that EUR strength had become unbearable and was undermining economic prospects. The German IFO decline reinforced that impression. Still, I would note that April Eurozone PMI’s offered more mixed readings and continue to point to slower, but ongoing growth (Eurozone April services PMI rose from 51.6 to 51.8; manufacturing PMI dipped from 52.0 to 50.8; April composite PMI rose from 51.8 to 51.9—readings above 50 indicate expansion.) So the case for a pronounced Eurozone downturn remains to be seen. • EU officials appear more determined than thought to cap the strength of the Euro—Jean Claude Juncker, the head of the group of EU finance ministers, spoke out virtually in real-time on several occasions to object to EUR gains since the G7 met two weeks ago. ECB pres. Trichet similarly voiced strong concern that further EUR strength jeopardized the economic outlook. While the US still does not appear to be on board concerning market intervention, it appears increasingly likely that unilateral European intervention may yet come into play if EUR strength returns. The effect of this is to introduce two-way risk in the minds of speculators, creating a self-limiting dynamic, with 1.6000 now the clear line in the sand. • US rate expectations have shifted to embrace either steady rates from here or one more ¼% cut to 2.00%, followed by a pause. Since last Friday, US rate expectations have seen US 2-year yields rise over 40 bps and 10-year yields gain nearly 20 bps. The fundamental outlook has not really changed and I still expect a deeper and more protracted US downturn. (That changes when the following stop/reverse: declining US home prices; rising energy (oil) prices; rising unemployment; tight consumer/corporate credit conditions.) As such, the Fed is likely to need to cut rates later at some stage, and the data will continue to drive that outlook. For the time being, however, interest rate differentials are set to cease being a USD negative, but remain far from becoming a positive. • Commodity correlations have broken down in the short run—but it remains unclear if this will persist. Gold has broken down significantly, in line with a stronger USD and weaker Euro, but oil has diverged and actually made new all-time highs adjusting for the change in contract dates. For today at least, the weak USD/strong oil relationship has not functioned, but it seems unlikely it is dead just yet. Traders need to keep one eye on oil and the other on the USD. • Technically speaking, damage has been done to the EUR/USD uptrend, but it’s not dead yet. 1.5550 is critical trendline-support that effectively contained the EUR/USD plunge this week and weakness below that level is likely to trigger further downside potential. Also, intermediate trendlines were broken and they now offer viable selling points at 1.5710/20, followed by the 21-day moving average at 1.5780. Ichimoku charts saw EUR/USD plunge through the Tenkan line at 1.5787 and the Kijun line at 1.5680, and both offer resistance now. The cloud top is the next source of support at 1.5425 ahead of the overall range low at 1.5330/40. Also of note, the USD index tested higher into its Ichimoku cloud on Friday, but has not been able to close above the cloud base at 72.84. • What to conclude from this?—There have been a lot of short-term shifts in expectations, and this has unfolded against a deteriorating economic backdrop, especially in the US, amid markets lacking in conviction. Data will remain an important short-term driver and while I reckon with renewed USD weakness based on expected incoming weak data, I can’t rule out that we are experiencing a larger shift in trend. More often than not, major price breaks precede concrete fundamental evidence suggesting trend conditions have changed, so I will be watching the following price points very closely. The USD (via the USD index) is on the cusp of breaking higher if it can close above 72.84 on a daily basis. Such a close would suggest significant upside potential for the greenback on the order of 1.5-2.0% to the top of the cloud initially. Similarly, EUR/USD has tested critical trendline support at 1.5550, which may provoke a bounce. If that level fails and EUR/USD drops through the top of its cloud at 1.5425, it argues for sharper weakness to the cloud bottom at 1.5135. I remain a USD-bear at heart, but I am prepared to flip if USD resistance breaks (EUR/USD support at 1.5550 breaks) as the follow-through could be substantial. USD/JPY above 105.00 is another signal that the USD may break higher.


Key data and events next week: FOMC, ISM & NFP
Given the highly uncertain outlook, I would continue to anticipate heightened volatility in short-term trading conditions. Beginning May 1 and 2, Golden Week holidays in Japan and Labor Day holidays in China will tend to see reduced liquidity during Asian market hours, potentially leading to even higher volatility. US data next week is heavy with important data, not the least of which is the FOMC rate announcement on Wednesday afternoon. Starting on Tuesday morning, we’ll see the Feb. S&P/CaseShiller home price index and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence reading for April. Wednesday starts with the ADP national employment report, advance 1Q GDP, and the April Chicago PMI, followed by the FOMC rate decision in the afternoon. Thursday sees March personal income & spending, March PCE core inflation readings, weekly jobless claims, April ISM manufacturing, and March construction spending. Friday finishes up with the April unemployment report and March factory orders. Eurozone data sees May German GfK consumer confidence to start with on Monday. Tuesday sees April French consumer confidence and French business survey of overall demand. Wednesday sees March German unemployment reports and April Eurozone CPI estimates, along with a series of European Commission surveys of business and consumer confidence for April. Thursday has no European data of note. Friday sees March German retail sales, March French producer prices, and final-April manufacturing PMI’s for the Eurozone. UK data is mercifully light. Sometime between Monday and Wednesday, the Nationwide Building Society will release its house price index for April. Tuesday morning sees March consumer credit and mortgage lending data, along with the April CBI distributive trades report, a privately calculated survey of retail sales. At midnight local UK time on Tuesday night, the April GfK consumer confidence index will be released. Thursday morning sees April manufacturing PMI, followed on Friday by the April construction PMI. Japanese data begins on Monday morning with March retail trade. Wednesday morning sees the Nomura/JMMA manufacturing PMI for April, March unemployment report, March household spending and preliminary March industrial production, followed in the afternoon by the BOJ rate decision and March housing starts and construction orders. Thursday afternoon sees March labor cash earnings. Friday sees no data of note.

[Emphasis added]

Which is why most systems don't work consistently over many years....

The latent bank crisis causes the euro to flush/climb high but recedes later


T R A N S L A T I O N

潜在银行危机导致欧元冲高回落


ANOTHER NEWS


There are other factors that we need to consider: the rising of the oil price (at one times, more than US$119) and also strike of UK oil refinery worker on 28 and 29 April.

Strike threatens UK oil supplies

Effects of Grangemouth walkout will last a month
Severe fuel shortages could hit the UK this week due to planned industrial action by oil refinery workers. The strike could cripple petrol pump supplies for at least a month.
Scotland and the north of England will be worst affected, it was claimed by management at the Grangemouth crude oil refinery, where up to 1,200 workers are due to walk out for 48 hours on 27 and 28 April in a row over pensions.

FEDERAL RESERVE - After the cut of 25 basic points, the cycle of cutting interest rest will be ended. So USD will become stronger.


T R A N S L A T I O N

美元兑欧元续回稳　纽约期油一度冲过119美元

二零零八年四月二十六日 晚上七时三十二分

（纽约26日电）随着传来美国消费者信心指数跌至25年低点的报告后，美元兑主要货币呈参杂，但兑欧元却进一步走强。

周五纽约汇市，美元尾市时报1.5635美元兑1欧元，较周四的1.5686美元稍升值。此外，美元兑日圆的汇率持稳于105.26日圆，以及兑英镑由周四之1.9755美元趋软至1.9826美元及兑瑞士法郎由1.0356法郎微降至1.0347法郎。

据密歇根大学和路透社的联合调查报告显示，4月美国消费者信心指数 Univ. of Michigan and Reuter consumer sentiment 由3月的69.5下跌至62.6，是1982年以来的最低水平。

近日美元有转强之势，利率期货显示，联储局下周维持联邦基金利率不变的比率，已由周四的18%增至28%。在此之前，已陆续有言论指出，当局下周减息0.25%后，将把利率维持于2%，意味着减息周期即将结束。
此外，周五国际油价大幅反弹，因除了英国炼油厂罢工和尼日利亚输油管遭攻击对全球供油构成威胁以外，有关美军租用的一艘货船在波斯湾向逼近的两艘伊朗快艇开枪示警的消息，也令交易商感到更加不安。
纽约商业期货交易所6月原油期货周五一度弹升至每桶119.55美元，闭市报每桶118.52美元，猛涨了2.46美元。
伦敦布兰特原油市场6月期货价格也劲升94仙而叩至每桶115.28美元。
此外，纽约5月RBOB汽油期货周五结算价格起3.51仙而晋至每加仑3.0537美元，以及5月取暖油期货急回弹4.45仙而叩至每加仑3.3028美元。

英国近日将面临汽油短缺 ，因为国内最大炼油厂之一的格兰茅斯厂工人为退休金争执，打算在28日和29日罢工，这座位于苏格兰爱丁堡西边的炼油厂已从今天起开始关闭。
英国石油公司因此必须关闭附近的佛提斯输油管，因为格兰茅斯提供这条油管运转所需要的电力和蒸气。这条油管从北海运送石油，所运送的石油占英国每日产量的三分之一。

morning all...

from my side for today... the bull still valid...

daily pv is the best point to start the journey...

daily s1 is the strong point... if broke we will gonna see the magic number....

looking R3 for today... http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

just single pip opinion...: