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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #13,941
  • Apr 25, 2008 4:48am Apr 25, 2008 4:48am
Going through the thread, just read that excellent post by Chandra (#1461) to Phillip about using 1H entry and now I see that today early in the morning (though I was sleeping at that time but nevertheless) a nice trade could have been taken on EURUSD (see picture)
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  • #13,942
  • Apr 25, 2008 4:50am Apr 25, 2008 4:50am
UJ is about to form a TC. But the tail up there makes me feel unconfirtable. It seems that the thythm is good.
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Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #13,943
  • Apr 25, 2008 5:09am Apr 25, 2008 5:09am
Quoting Yorik
Going through the thread, just read that excellent post by Chandra (#1461) to Phillip about using 1H entry and now I see that today early in the morning (though I was sleeping at that time but nevertheless) a nice trade could have been taken on EURUSD (see picture)
I have seen this pattern, but I didn't enter. It has been formed at 7:00 GMT+1, and 8:00 is the time that a new 4h canlde will be formed. There are always lots of volatile in 4:00 to 8:00 period.
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Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #13,944
  • Apr 25, 2008 5:39am Apr 25, 2008 5:39am
Quoting RemingtonTJ
so you're only looking at the 4h chart?
I currently trade per the 4H/1H TC rhythm - I look at the weekly/daily chart for significant S/R levels that price needs to work through and weather price is trending or in a corrective movement. I use the lower timeframes 15MIN/5MIN to pinpoint my entry. Because I am in tuned with all the timeframes and how it is relating to each other I treat them as one - by looking at price this way I am continously adapting to current market condition.

Such as my EUR trade this morning - I am sure we were all anticipating a 4H TC but the MACD will give nice TC signals only under certain steady price movements where price & time fit your bar closing time. In the real world price is constantly changing increasing and decreasing relative to time. I was following the 15M/5M swings during the start of the pullback as price moved counter trend direction in a 15M trending rhythm - then the 15M swings reversed and went sideways - as the swings begin to trend with a trending rhythm on the lower timeframe in the direction of the previous 4H trend I entered.

To me price action is the most important - by PA I mean price swing movement or flow not price candle pattern. Because if you understand price movement or flow you understand all the price patterns by looking at price swings on a lower timeframe.

MACD has its place as an indicator if one cannot watch the market but with a good understanding of price movement across the timeframes it will help you filter the bad signals.
  • #13,945
  • Edited 6:20am Apr 25, 2008 5:58am | Edited 6:20am
Quoting maxster
Such as my EUR trade this morning - I am sure we were all anticipating a 4H TC but the MACD will give nice TC signals only under certain steady price movements where price & time fit your bar closing time. In the real world price is constantly changing increasing and decreasing relative to time. I was following the 15M/5M swings during the start of the pullback as price moved counter trend direction in a 15M trending rhythm - then the 15M swings reversed and went sideways - as the swings begin to trend with a trending rhythm on the lower timeframe in the direction of the previous 4H trend I entered.
maxster, is that the sequence you would have looked at during the anticipation of a 4H TC, drilling down through the timeframes pinpointing an entry?

4h: breakdown through tl, then 200sma, retracement at least to 200sma anticipated, and following TC on MACD
http://i267.photobucket.com/albums/i...eurusdex4h.gif

1h: small up channel forming, finding resistance close to 21ema and 1.5700 price level, forming dojis
http://i267.photobucket.com/albums/i...eurusdex1h.gif

15min: price forming lower low, lower highs and finally finding resistance at channel top and 21ema
http://i267.photobucket.com/albums/i...usdex15min.gif
  • #13,946
  • Apr 25, 2008 7:13am Apr 25, 2008 7:13am
Hi Islandtrader,

May I ask Which broker do you use and what time your candle closes?I mean GMT +1 or 2?

your chart looks much better than me.I think GMT charts are not good because from 4-8 GMT you have Max move and all goes in 1 candle like mine!! Look what a big candle I got.

As I noticed your MACD was green in the first TC candle though

Thanks
Mike
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Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #13,947
  • Apr 25, 2008 7:40am Apr 25, 2008 7:40am
Quoting mike1349
Hi Islandtrader,

May I ask Which broker do you use and what time your candle closes?I mean GMT +1 or 2?

your chart looks much better than me.I think GMT charts are not good because from 4-8 GMT you have Max move and all goes in 1 candle like mine!! Look what a big candle I got.

As I noticed your MACD was green in the first TC candle though

Thanks
Mike
Hi mike,
I'm not using a MT4 broker (I'm using GFT and ABN AMRO) and my main chart where I conduct my analysis is MIG (trying to match Phillip Nels setups while following this great thread), but I also experiment with watching the 4H setups on other brokers (IBFX 0 GMT, FXDD +3 GMT). If candle closes on those charts with a good R/R I'll enter there, that's just an experiment and I don't know if I'm chasing trades with it. I might get more losses, but I also might get more profitable trades.

I don't think that one broker time is better than another one, there are periods where price is moving a lot between 4-8 GMT, and other times when it is very quiet.

The good thing with the 4 hour setup is that it teaches patience, and even if it means that I miss some trades which look so great on other platforms, and which other traders were able to profit from.
It might not sound reasonable in a technical way, but for me it's reasonable in a psychological way, because it's not only the entry that matters, but if I have the emotional stamina to stay through retracements and still thinking that I'm in a good setup, even if my stop gets hit.
I want to be in a state of being where I can say, even if I got a loss, I did everything right, and I'm not sorry for entering that trade because I did tweak the entry because of the market motion.

Of course I'd also like to be able to time my entry on 1hour or 15min charts, because it looks so appealing in hindsight, but I have to admit to myself that I'm not there yet, even though I'm trading now for over 3 years, I'm a newbie and need to adapt my trading style to my technical and emotional capacities.
If I can take trades on the 4H charts as my second nature, I might look at entering on 1H charts as described by Phillip, but this is a whole new world, which needs another level of experience and emotional strength. It's so easy to get burned in the market, that even if I'm only slightly positive at the end of the month, I consider myself being successful and on the right path.

Sorry to ramble on, mike, I'm not adressing you personnally, but you caught me thinking about how I could increase the frequency of trades and forgot that I'm not even a pro trading the 4hour. The good thing in this for me is that there is so much more to learn and experience, that is very exciting.

Kind regards
  • #13,948
  • Apr 25, 2008 8:27am Apr 25, 2008 8:27am
Hi,
I am totally agree with 4HR TF.My only problem is when my candle closes in 12 GMT i've already lost the big move of London opening and I get a huge candle but if my candle closes in GMT+1 or 2 then I could ride the wave in 1 or 2 hrs after london opening.

Thanks for the information and I'll try MIG.I think it would be the best .


Regards
Mike
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #13,949
  • Apr 25, 2008 8:39am Apr 25, 2008 8:39am
Quoting islandtrader
maxster, is that the sequence you would have looked at during the anticipation of a 4H TC, drilling down through the timeframes pinpointing an entry?
Yes that is pretty much it - but I don't use trendline channel breakouts or the MACD - I keep it even simplier - I use just the swing highs, lows and the swings 38%-62% fib levels. I follow the swings during the pullback and start to pay attention once price swings move sideways then once momentum shifts to the downside I start to pinpoint my exact entry and position my trade for the 4H TC - and usually by the time price reaches the high or low of the last 4H trending swing I have taken 50% PT and positioned for a free breakout ride.

To me it makes no sense looking at a few 4H candles and trying to see what they mean when I can get the complete picture looking at lower timeframe swings.
  • #13,950
  • Apr 25, 2008 9:02am Apr 25, 2008 9:02am
Hi,

I'm quite new to this thread, and it looks really interesting. No doubt a huge effort was put into it, and a lot of thought too.
What I couldn't find (maybe because I didn't look for it enough...) was a forward testing results. Did someone create a journal detailing all the deals he made? Is there any live statement around that can be tracked?

I don't believe in a "get rich quick" system, and this one does not look like one, but rather like a steady, reliable system, exactly what I was looking for. I'm just looking for some concrete numbers to show its stability...
  • #13,951
  • Apr 25, 2008 9:38am Apr 25, 2008 9:38am
Info
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trades for April2008.GIF Size: 68 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Daily Wrapup 25April2008.zip   1.3 MB | 1,466 downloads
  • #13,952
  • Apr 25, 2008 9:55am Apr 25, 2008 9:55am
Quoting Phillip Nel
Info
Is that you speaking there Phil? What accent is that?
  • #13,953
  • Apr 25, 2008 10:14am Apr 25, 2008 10:14am
Quoting forexmoments
Is that you speaking there Phil? What accent is that?
South African. Does it sound diffferent then normal. I had a listen this side and it seems to be like allways.
  • #13,954
  • Apr 25, 2008 10:23am Apr 25, 2008 10:23am
Great post as always Phillip, Also from my years of trading I see a lot of people do what is going on here. People start to make money, then they start to trade RETARDED. If it works do not change it, what happens is the brain wants you to lose because when you lose you get excited and it missess that, as I always said goto Vegas and have fun but do not change the way you guys trade. This works I posted real-time in the past showing it working and it still works today. Nothing has changed but YOU that is it.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #13,955
  • Apr 25, 2008 10:26am Apr 25, 2008 10:26am
Quoting memilavi
Hi,

I'm quite new to this thread, and it looks really interesting. No doubt a huge effort was put into it, and a lot of thought too.
What I couldn't find (maybe because I didn't look for it enough...) was a forward testing results. Did someone create a journal detailing all the deals he made? Is there any live statement around that can be tracked?

I don't believe in a "get rich quick" system, and this one does not look like one, but rather like a steady, reliable system, exactly what I was looking for. I'm just looking for some concrete numbers to show its stability...
Info
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls 4Hour MACD deals.xls   185 KB | 1,061 downloads
  • #13,956
  • Apr 25, 2008 10:48am Apr 25, 2008 10:48am
You have a great accent Phil, I love listening to it!
  • #13,957
  • Apr 25, 2008 10:48am Apr 25, 2008 10:48am
Quoting Phillip Nel
Info

Can anybody convert this file into PDF. ?


Thanks
  • #13,958
  • Apr 25, 2008 11:12am Apr 25, 2008 11:12am
Quoting 4newbie
Can anybody convert this file into PDF. ?


Thanks
Hi 4newbie, --The Wrap Up is already assigned to one of our copiers and will be typed as she finds the time. It will probably be a Word Document, and you will get the chart from the original post. Is there a special reason you want it in PDF? Thanks. --Tony
  • #13,959
  • Apr 25, 2008 11:36am Apr 25, 2008 11:36am
Look how the 1H supports the 4H with TC on MACD 1H confirming the pullback and move away as a signal to go short.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4 Hour Strategy.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #13,960
  • Apr 25, 2008 11:37am Apr 25, 2008 11:37am
Quoting OldDog
Hi 4newbie, --The Wrap Up is already assigned to one of our copiers and will be typed as she finds the time. It will probably be a Word Document, and you will get the chart from the original post. Is there a special reason you want it in PDF? Thanks. --Tony

mm..seems that u are talking about post #13952 but i replied to Phils post #13956... where is the XLS file...so....i just do not have MS for watching XLS files....
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