My friend in India says:It’s the US dollar story for precious metals, base metals and energies. US dollar gains, the invincible crude oil also falls. The big question is whether the US dollar has bottomed out against the major’s. In my view, we need to wait and watch for the Fed meeting and the April payrolls next week. If and only if both of them confirm that the US economy will recover, albeit at a snails pace over the coming months that the US will continue to gain else gains on the greenback will be used as an opportunity to go short. Growth differentials between US and other nations will play a key role for the US dollar over the next few months. The lagging effects of higher food and energy prices will be felt globally over the next few months which will set the tone for the US dollar against emerging market currencies.Commodity markets are very volatile. If one trades against the trend, all his stop losses get triggered. However the volatility has followed the medium term technical charts. Sometimes short term technical charts give reverse trading signals. As and when short covering comes, commodities will gain. The short term technical picture is still negative.
- #365
- Apr 26, 2008 6:56pm Apr 26, 2008 6:56pm
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Trader | 2,387 Posts
200 pips is 200 pips, whichever way you slice it!
Great trading,salah!
that would be a dream come true.
u never know maybe because of this thread and all u great traders we might be able to ride the beast.
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
Nice work Doji, as for me i just want someone to tell me off for some silly mistakes this week. On Monday, i had already made 350+pips before 10am, and i said to myself thats it for the week, but i ended up being over confidence and took some trades, as of today, i have lost more than 400+pips. Lesson learnt.
Overconfidence is dangerous isn't it?! I know exactly what you mean! It often goes hand in hand with overtrading.
My biggest monthly losses came with the biggest amounts of trades made in those months. The fewer the trades per month, the more money I made.After the losses I suffered in the second week in April, I toned down and tightened up my trades. I know how you feel,too, you could see it coming but went ahead anyway!Right?Even if things did go your way, you'd still have it in the back of your mind, "Why the hell did I do that!?"
But... no worries...we still have loads of trades to get through before 2010!!
See you there,mate!
- #368
- Apr 27, 2008 4:12pm Apr 27, 2008 4:12pm
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Trader | 2,387 Posts
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
- #372
- Apr 28, 2008 6:56pm Apr 28, 2008 6:56pm
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Trader | 2,387 Posts
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
- #377
- Apr 29, 2008 11:30am Apr 29, 2008 11:30am
Yet another metals commentator mentioning a 14:1 to 15:1 gold-silver ratio...I knew I wasn't going crazy!!Mentioned this ratio on another thread and people thought I was looney! 
By Pratima Desai
LONDON, April 28 (Reuters) - Investment money flooding into silver has overwhelmed poor fundamentals and helped it to outperform gold, but the tide could be turning for precious metals and the probability of large losses is rising.
Silver has outstanding fundamentals, and silver's downside is minimal, and, in fact, it probably just bottomed, as I will show.
Silver's price falls in percentage terms are likely to dwarf those seen in gold, which some fund managers say has stronger supply/demand fundamentals.
Again, the opposite is true, silver's supply/demand fundamentals are much better than for gold, as all the smart money knows, and as I will show.
"History shows that when you get a substantial correction in precious metals, silver falls more than gold ... It's a more volatile market and smaller in value terms," said Stephen Briggs, analyst at Societe Generale.
That's true, silver is more volatile, and in a bull market for silver, which we are in, silver will clearly outperform gold, as it has outperformed gold, as the silver to gold ratio is narrowing, from 80:1 to 50:1, and we have a long way to go to get to the historic 15:1 ratio, or we will likely exceed it, with silver moving even higher.
One big reason behind surging prices has been the tumbling dollar, making commodities priced in dollars cheaper for holders of other currencies. The weak dollar also prompts producers to raise prices to protect profit margins.
By Pratima Desai
LONDON, April 28 (Reuters) - Investment money flooding into silver has overwhelmed poor fundamentals and helped it to outperform gold, but the tide could be turning for precious metals and the probability of large losses is rising.
Silver has outstanding fundamentals, and silver's downside is minimal, and, in fact, it probably just bottomed, as I will show.
Silver's price falls in percentage terms are likely to dwarf those seen in gold, which some fund managers say has stronger supply/demand fundamentals.
Again, the opposite is true, silver's supply/demand fundamentals are much better than for gold, as all the smart money knows, and as I will show.
"History shows that when you get a substantial correction in precious metals, silver falls more than gold ... It's a more volatile market and smaller in value terms," said Stephen Briggs, analyst at Societe Generale.
That's true, silver is more volatile, and in a bull market for silver, which we are in, silver will clearly outperform gold, as it has outperformed gold, as the silver to gold ratio is narrowing, from 80:1 to 50:1, and we have a long way to go to get to the historic 15:1 ratio, or we will likely exceed it, with silver moving even higher.
One big reason behind surging prices has been the tumbling dollar, making commodities priced in dollars cheaper for holders of other currencies. The weak dollar also prompts producers to raise prices to protect profit margins.
- #379
- Apr 30, 2008 3:10am Apr 30, 2008 3:10am
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Trader | 2,387 Posts
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche