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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #13,921
  • Apr 24, 2008 5:40pm Apr 24, 2008 5:40pm
Quoting JimDandy
Here's the way i do it.... I just bring up the one to close and before hitting the close button change the volume to the amount you want to close like in this pic.....

Attachment

Hope this helps........Pipip........Jimdandy
This is great!!! I never believe this is possible. I am sure this information is useful to above 98% of the members of this thread. Thank you for the information very useful
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GOOD AND EXCELLENT IS ATTENTION TO DETAILS.
  • #13,922
  • Apr 24, 2008 9:01pm Apr 24, 2008 9:01pm
Hey everyone:

For some of those new faces here I want to introduce myself, 'Palmer'. I put the website together for Phillip's method, still have a lot to add, but free time for me seems to be the most valuable commodity these days. For the 4hr method I mainly trade the EURUSD maybe 90% of the time and the USDJPY the other 10% of the time. Two pairs, that's it. More than that and I feel myself looking for something that just isn't there; keep things clean.

I just had a member PM me because they were starting to take a few losses and are now basically losing money trading. 2007 and into the first few months of 2008 the 4hr method seemed to be playing by the rules quite well. You could easily just sit back and wait for a pair to come back to the 21 giving a textbook TC signal, click and enter and bag pips. Things seem to be changing a little. The volatility has increased (speaking about the EURUSD here) and price seems to be breaking through the 21 at will and making the TC trades harder to have faith in. The current channel in the EURUSD, starting about April 1st, is just plain ugly. Compare this to the channel a few months ago from about mid Feb to mid March and the channel was 'rhythmic', predictable around the 21.

There is a LOT going on with the US economy right now: Oil, interest rates, food shortages (supposedly), airlines and housing markets getting hammered, major banks are nervous, and people are really starting to think differently about their money. This is causing a lot of nervousness in the markets as well. The US indexes are up 300 points one day and down 200 the next. Things are really wacked right now and probably will be for the rest of this year. There is no quick fix for the US economy.

A lot of Expert Advisors are curve fitting every once in a while, or parameters are adjusted to react to different market situations. If Phillip's method was 100% mechanical and was an EA, my guess is that new parameters would be being tested right now or some curve fitting would be happening. This is why EA's work for a certain amount of time, then start to lose. But, since this is not a mechanical trading system and is a method, you must do your own curve fitting or change your own parameters. This can be anything from sitting on your hands, maybe studying another pair that was volatile in the past but is now abiding by the rules, or, this is what I am starting looking at, just trading the method on the 1hr charts and look at smaller (in length of time) channels that do play by the rules. I've also been doing quite well on the 5min charts, in terms of winners vs. losers, when I can monitor the charts. The 5min entries for me are easier to spot and it's basically the same set-up no matter what the chart is. I don't have to stare at the charts either. I simply take a glance, see where price needs to come back to, and only have my pop-up price window on my screen. I take a glance at that every now and then and when price is coming near the 'war-zone' the I take a look. That's it.

I know the majority of people don't have the time to do this, or the ability, but the point here is that this is my way of adjusting to the volatility in the EURUSD. I will be looking at the 1hr charts for the past few months (by looking at I mean printing the charts out and putting pen to paper) to try and see if the 1hr charts show a clearer picture.

To make a long story short, for those just coming into the thread (and trade the EURUSD), it has been a tough few months per the rules. The method isn't wrong...it's the economy right now. Phillip stresses that patience is NEEDED for success, now's the time where that is more valuable than anything right now. You, we, I, have to learn how to adjust to the markets to be successful. There's a lot more to it than just a few moving averages and we have no control over any of it. Things are just plain difficult right now.

Chart: The current ugly channel...just not pretty...
Attached Image
  • #13,923
  • Apr 24, 2008 9:37pm Apr 24, 2008 9:37pm
Quoting napeharm
Ryan;

I would be interested to hear how you are getting on after studying price action from James16 thread. Has it had any bearing on how you trade the 4hr macd or not?

I spent some months follwing the thread and understanding the observations on candles etc. and also some other stuff from James 16 private thread. Putting it together is another matter though. I do look at the daily candles for any clues to give credence to the 4 hr signals as this can obviously strenghten them etc. Also 4hr candles. The ones i like most are inside bars, bullish and bearish outside bars and pins.

Be interested to hear your views . I have read with interest your contributions to this thread.

Price action is king, all MA's MACD or whatever just re-inforce it. I am really having a good time with the pinbar's if you watch them. Also I was told if you look at Phillip's trades and PB's you can see they are about 80% PB's before the macd show's the trade. So far I am 12/14 trading this month just price action. I have not brought them together but I am guessing they would work well because they are both doing the same thing, I think PB's lead MACD because it's price and I have gone back and I get in a macd trade about 2-6 hours before Phillip on a lot of them but we trade about the same thing. Let me know if you have any other questions, I am not here much PM's are the best to get in touch with me.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #13,924
  • Apr 24, 2008 9:55pm Apr 24, 2008 9:55pm
Quoting Ryanmcd
Price action is king, all MA's MACD or whatever just re-inforce it. I am really having a good time with the pinbar's if you watch them. Also I was told if you look at Phillip's trades and PB's you can see they are about 80% PB's before the macd show's the trade. So far I am 12/14 trading this month just price action. I have not brought them together but I am guessing they would work well because they are both doing the same thing, I think PB's lead MACD because it's price and I have gone back and I get in a macd trade about 2-6 hours before Phillip on a lot of them but we trade about the same thing. Let me know if you have any other questions, I am not here much PM's are the best to get in touch with me.
My I know which timeframe is the best for monitoring price action? and your PM please
  • #13,925
  • Apr 24, 2008 10:57pm Apr 24, 2008 10:57pm
Quoting golddigger888
My I know which timeframe is the best for monitoring price action? and your PM please

I use the 4hr to trade off of.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #13,926
  • Apr 25, 2008 12:45am Apr 25, 2008 12:45am
Good morning,

what I suggest is, to also look at the other pairs if EURUSD doesn't work.
The MACD method seems to be adaptable enough, to apply it to other markets!!!
Otherwise I would not want to use it!!

Look below:
AUDUSD: possible rounded Bottom
USDCAD: I am looking for a TC Long
USDCHF: "OUR" EMA seems to be resistance :-)

Till
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  • #13,927
  • Apr 25, 2008 12:58am Apr 25, 2008 12:58am
Ok, thanks Ryan, i'll PM. if the thread allow me to.
  • #13,928
  • Apr 25, 2008 1:03am Apr 25, 2008 1:03am
Quoting JimDandy
Here's the way i do it.... I just bring up the one to close and before hitting the close button change the volume to the amount you want to close like in this pic.....

Attachment

Hope this helps........Pipip........Jimdandy
! That's cool - it might be a banality but I haven't seen that this is possible. Thanks a lot, JimDandy!
  • #13,929
  • Apr 25, 2008 1:05am Apr 25, 2008 1:05am
RemmingtonTJ;

The problem with looking to other pairings because your chosen one doesnt work right now, is that it encourages the mentality of looking for trades.
Rather than getting to know the rhythm of the pair your are really interested in and following it despite the fact it may be showing nothing at present. And indeed accpeting that it does have periods of difficult trading or non activity which are always temporary.If the rhythm is poor that currency can still be traded using 5 mins and at least the pairing is still the same etc.
  • #13,930
  • Apr 25, 2008 1:29am Apr 25, 2008 1:29am
Open price: 1.9718
SL Price: 1.9761, SL: 43 pips
TP price: 0.5/1.9690, 0.5/1.9640, TP: 53 (28, 78) pips
SINGLE OPENING.
R:R-ratio: 1.23.
Conclusion: trade is OK.
Attached Image
  • #13,931
  • Apr 25, 2008 1:40am Apr 25, 2008 1:40am
2Palmer
Thanks for advice and your conclusions according the situation on the markets lately. As for one of the newcomers, for me it's very interesting to read the thoughts of those who are "in the topic".

My separate respect for you for the site you've created - it might have taken a lot of time to do that!
  • #13,932
  • Apr 25, 2008 1:41am Apr 25, 2008 1:41am
Quoting napeharm
RemmingtonTJ;

The problem with looking to other pairings because your chosen one doesnt work right now, is that it encourages the mentality of looking for trades.
Rather than getting to know the rhythm of the pair your are really interested in and following it despite the fact it may be showing nothing at present. And indeed accpeting that it does have periods of difficult trading or non activity which are always temporary.If the rhythm is poor that currency can still be traded using 5 mins and at least the pairing is still the same etc.
...so do you exactly trade with Phil's method on a 5 minute chart?
  • #13,933
  • Apr 25, 2008 1:42am Apr 25, 2008 1:42am
v2.3 of 4HChancesEvaluator expert
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File Type: pdf 4HChancesEvaluator MT4 expert.pdf   62 KB | 1,159 downloads
  • #13,934
  • Apr 25, 2008 1:59am Apr 25, 2008 1:59am
RemmingtonTJ;

As Phil has suggested himself its worth developing a 5 mins shorter term strategy to deal with ranging times. I thinks its useful to stick with ones chosen pairings trading from 4hrs when it allows and 5 mins when it does not. Focus is then kept on the rhythm of that pairing.
  • #13,935
  • Apr 25, 2008 2:02am Apr 25, 2008 2:02am
Quoting napeharm
RemmingtonTJ;

As Phil has suggested himself its worth developing a 5 mins shorter term strategy to deal with ranging times. I thinks its useful to stick with ones chosen pairings trading from 4hrs when it allows and 5 mins when it does not. Focus is then kept on the rhythm of that pairing.
what I observed with my trading in the last few days is, that I have been way to cautious, to much waiting for retracements or confirmations
and that was the case in all pairs that I am looking at

Maybe the message right now is to be more agressive, sometimes even take a single MACD-signal
  • #13,936
  • Apr 25, 2008 2:12am Apr 25, 2008 2:12am
RemmingtonTJ;

Your are quite right to be patient and cautious in recent times. I havent traded a single 4hr signal all week because they are counter trades on my charts. This represents greater risk which i am not prepared to take. Phils method is thus conservative by nature and is so precisely to avoid risk and make safer pips more consistantly so those who follow it stay in the game for longer. We are all in trading for the long haul. One way around the natural feeling of impatience is to trade from a smaller time frame but leave the 4hr alone until the market comes to us. That way we get to play another day.........we win.
  • #13,937
  • Apr 25, 2008 3:26am Apr 25, 2008 3:26am
Quoting napeharm
RemmingtonTJ;

Your are quite right to be patient and cautious in recent times. I havent traded a single 4hr signal all week because they are counter trades on my charts. This represents greater risk which i am not prepared to take. Phils method is thus conservative by nature and is so precisely to avoid risk and make safer pips more consistantly so those who follow it stay in the game for longer. We are all in trading for the long haul. One way around the natural feeling of impatience is to trade from a smaller time frame but leave the 4hr alone until the market comes to us. That way we get to play another day.........we win.
actually my message was, having been too cautious
  • #13,938
  • Apr 25, 2008 3:57am Apr 25, 2008 3:57am
Quoting napeharm
RemmingtonTJ;

Your are quite right to be patient and cautious in recent times. I havent traded a single 4hr signal all week because they are counter trades on my charts. This represents greater risk which i am not prepared to take. Phils method is thus conservative by nature and is so precisely to avoid risk and make safer pips more consistantly so those who follow it stay in the game for longer. We are all in trading for the long haul. One way around the natural feeling of impatience is to trade from a smaller time frame but leave the 4hr alone until the market comes to us. That way we get to play another day.........we win.
The EUR MACD signals are counter trend but actually those entry points are trend continuations because the market speed was slow (along the 89). To expand your view on price movement study the higher and lower timeframes as well - they will allow you to adapt and be more in tune with price. The limitation is the MACD because it is not very flexible in adapting to various conditions.

Personally I no longer view the market of having separate timeframes because I now can see how the trending rhythm relate to all the timeframes.
  • #13,939
  • Apr 25, 2008 4:08am Apr 25, 2008 4:08am
Quoting maxster
The EUR MACD signals are counter trend but actually those entry points are trend continuations because the market speed was slow (along the 89). To expand your view on price movement study the higher and lower timeframes as well - they will allow you to adapt and be more in tune with price. The limitation is the MACD because it is not very flexible in adapting to various conditions.

Personally I no longer view the market of having separate timeframes because I now can see how the trending rhythm relate to all the timeframes.
so you're only looking at the 4h chart?
  • #13,940
  • Apr 25, 2008 4:28am Apr 25, 2008 4:28am
Quoting Yorik
v2.3 of 4HChancesEvaluator expert
Thanks again Yorik, very cool features, and presented in a very clear way, it's a great help using this tool.
Kind regards
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