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  • #921
  • Apr 14, 2008 10:52am Apr 14, 2008 10:52am
Quoting pearsonfx
Hey Mike,

Just thought I would drop by again lol...as you know patterns are always forming....and a nice head and shoulders appeared during the london session...

Will have to wait where we close and where we open next week.....but my personal bias is to the downside now....

Good luck and happy pips

Zack
Hey Zack, thanks for the thought and info, I am definitely in agreement with you on that. I think it's going to tank throughout this week. The weekly also closed more or less like a double high lower close too so that's giving me more confirmation on it.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #922
  • Apr 14, 2008 10:54am Apr 14, 2008 10:54am
Quoting priceaction
Mike I've enjoyed reading your posts. Thanks for sharing.

I note what you say about maybe putting a stop at about 100 pips above a pin bar on the daily. Do you ever allow price to go against you much more than 100 on the higher timeframes?

Say for example you got a nice pin bar on the monthly and you wanted to enter somewhere based on that.

Rob
Hey Rob, on higher timeframe charts, I will allow much larger stops because price has to move around more in order to fuel up for the bigger movements. I can easily expect a 500 pip stop on a monthly chart if I don't get in at the exact right price (which has happened in the past).
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #923
  • Apr 14, 2008 10:57am Apr 14, 2008 10:57am
Ok for updates, I am still in the eur/jpy longs and have added to those. I am also short on the gbp/usd having added again today at 1.9850. Along with those, I am also short on the gbp/jpy with scattered entries from 205 down to 202. I have orders on that all the way down now. I still have the nzd/usd short off of the monthly as well.

Other than these, I have no new trades at the moment as these are the ones that I think will bring me the most profit. There have been other possibilities though, but I'm not going to overleverage myself in my positions. I closed out my aussie short for a loss in the meantime. It just wasn't going anywhere and the opportunity cost of having it made even more of a loss for me - after I closed that I put my money into the gbp/jpy and it's already doubled itself.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #924
  • Apr 14, 2008 10:58am Apr 14, 2008 10:58am
Quoting mike w
Hey Rob, on higher timeframe charts, I will allow much larger stops because price has to move around more in order to fuel up for the bigger movements. I can easily expect a 500 pip stop on a monthly chart if I don't get in at the exact right price (which has happened in the past).
Thanks Mike.
I also have one more question which you might have not seen, but it would be great if you could give me some thoughts...
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...71#post1950471

Great call on topping up the cable short at 1.9850 by the way (impressed!)

Thanks again.
Rob
  • #925
  • Apr 14, 2008 11:10am Apr 14, 2008 11:10am
Quoting priceaction
Thanks Mike.
I also have one more question which you might have not seen, but it would be great if you could give me some thoughts...
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...71#post1950471

Great call on topping up the cable short at 1.9850 by the way (impressed!)

Thanks again.
Rob
Oh I'm sorry Rob, I didn't see it! Honestly, after learning the 5 sma deal and using i on higher timeframes, I've been able to get in at the most optimal prices. I use it on any timeframe really, but mostly I trade the daily and weekly timeframes. For instance, this week on cable, it rested at about 1.9810 at the beginning of the week. More often than not, it will somewhat overshoot that beginning layout and move further up which is why I placed my entry higher up. It's a very basic thing to use, but it does take a little bit of time to get used to it to realize when it WILL and WILL NOT happen. I've been tricked by that before honestly and paid quite a bit for it. When price action comes into conjuction with it, it's a very powerful tool to have.

Practice and experience are needed though, just like with everything.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #926
  • Apr 14, 2008 11:18am Apr 14, 2008 11:18am
Quoting mike w
Oh I'm sorry Rob, I didn't see it! Honestly, after learning the 5 sma deal and using i on higher timeframes, I've been able to get in at the most optimal prices. I use it on any timeframe really, but mostly I trade the daily and weekly timeframes. For instance, this week on cable, it rested at about 1.9810 at the beginning of the week. More often than not, it will somewhat overshoot that beginning layout and move further up which is why I placed my entry higher up. It's a very basic thing to use, but it does take a little bit of time to get used to it to realize when it WILL and WILL NOT happen. I've been tricked by that before honestly and paid quite a bit for it. When price action comes into conjuction with it, it's a very powerful tool to have.

Practice and experience are needed though, just like with everything.
Thanks a lot Mike. I really appreciate it.
Is the 5 sma you use based on high, low or median, etc?

Cheers,
Rob
  • #927
  • Apr 14, 2008 11:21am Apr 14, 2008 11:21am
Quoting priceaction
Thanks a lot Mike. I really appreciate it.
Is the 5 sma you use based on high, low or median, etc?

Cheers,
Rob
I have mine set on the close. There are systems that use the high, low, and close. If you do a search on them, you could probably find something, but I find the close to be the clearest setting picture for me.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #928
  • Apr 14, 2008 11:22am Apr 14, 2008 11:22am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Hi All
i use a 5ema typical HLC/3 - it's slightly smoother, but overall on the daily and weekly charts they all seem to be within a pip or 2.
  • #929
  • Apr 14, 2008 11:23am Apr 14, 2008 11:23am
Quoting MPP
Hi All
i use a 5ema typical HLC/3 - it's slightly smoother, but overall on the daily and weekly charts they all seem to be within a pip or 2.
Excellent, thanks MPP! Could you tell me how much and what kind of a difference the exponential averages differ from the simple averages on lower timeframes, say the 1 to 4 hour?
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #930
  • Apr 14, 2008 11:34am Apr 14, 2008 11:34am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting mike w
Excellent, thanks MPP! Could you tell me how much and what kind of a difference the exponential averages differ from the simple averages on lower timeframes, say the 1 to 4 hour?

Hi Mike
it realy depends on the pairs average daily move i think, but the most i've come accross is 10pips difference, been sometime since i used a 5sma though. i think it's what you get used to, as you start to understand it's use on the pairs you get a feel for it.
  • #931
  • Apr 14, 2008 11:37am Apr 14, 2008 11:37am
Quoting MPP
Hi Mike
it realy depends on the pairs average daily move i think, but the most i've come accross is 10pips difference, been sometime since i used a 5sma though. i think it's what you get used to, as you start to understand it's use on the pairs you get a feel for it.
This is very true. 10 pips really isn't that much, and it wouldn't make much of a difference unless your on ridiculously low timeframes like the 5 or 15 minute. As for getting a feel for it, your right on that! I was totally lost using it to begin with, but now I could just about figure out where it would be plotted at without it even being there- it just becomes second nature. Thanks for the input MPP!
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #932
  • Apr 14, 2008 11:47am Apr 14, 2008 11:47am
Quoting mike w
This is very true. 10 pips really isn't that much, and it wouldn't make much of a difference unless your on ridiculously low timeframes like the 5 or 15 minute. As for getting a feel for it, your right on that! I was totally lost using it to begin with, but now I could just about figure out where it would be plotted at without it even being there- it just becomes second nature. Thanks for the input MPP!
Mike (and MPP)
Thanks guys. This (using 5 ma) is new to me, but I spotted Mike referring to it in the cable thread. It's something that I'm going to explore.

Thanks again.
Rob
  • #933
  • Apr 14, 2008 11:52am Apr 14, 2008 11:52am
Quoting priceaction
Mike (and MPP)
Thanks guys. This (using 5 ma) is new to me, but I spotted Mike referring to it in the cable thread. It's something that I'm going to explore.

Thanks again.
Rob
Sure thing, if you have any questions, just let me know!
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #934
  • Apr 15, 2008 3:31pm Apr 15, 2008 3:31pm
hi mike

i think cable will spike to the 9585 area and then shoot up to the 9700 area (38% fib of down swing on hourly) to then fall to the 9500 area.

if i'm not mistaken, your short gu target is at 9500. won't you consider going long around 9590 or 9600 due to the high odds of a big retracement, to sell it once it reaches the 9700 area? this way you'll get 100 pips on the way up, and probably 200 pips on the way dow (assuming everything goes according to plan..)

thx

tomaz
  • #935
  • Apr 19, 2008 6:51am Apr 19, 2008 6:51am
Quoting mike w
Ok for updates, I am still in the eur/jpy longs and have added to those. I am also short on the gbp/usd having added again today at 1.9850. Along with those, I am also short on the gbp/jpy with scattered entries from 205 down to 202. I have orders on that all the way down now. I still have the nzd/usd short off of the monthly as well.

Other than these, I have no new trades at the moment as these are the ones that I think will bring me the most profit. There have been other possibilities though, but I'm not going to overleverage myself in my positions.I closed out my aussie short for a loss in the meantime. It just wasn't going anywhere and the opportunity cost of having it made even more of a loss for me - after I closed that I put my money into the gbp/jpy and it's already doubled itself.
Hi Ya Mike
As always im interested on your position on cable, you know with recent bullish PA .I would assume you would hold position and look to add to it if price should go higher.
I mean im mixed to bullish on it at mo as we seem to be in one big sideways movement right now.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #936
  • Apr 19, 2008 8:47pm Apr 19, 2008 8:47pm
how dare you guys question mide! cable is an ugly currency that is fundamentally in the toilet ya'll.... lol keep on rockin mikey!
  • #937
  • Apr 20, 2008 4:32am Apr 20, 2008 4:32am
Lol ,I wouldn’t question him im looking to learn from him.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #938
  • Apr 22, 2008 11:23pm Apr 22, 2008 11:23pm
Quoting Bones
Lol ,I wouldn’t question him im looking to learn from him.

i was joking around good to see ya all haveing some fun
  • #939
  • Apr 23, 2008 12:15am Apr 23, 2008 12:15am
Cool I thought that Dag
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #940
  • Apr 24, 2008 8:29pm Apr 24, 2008 8:29pm
Hey whats happenin guys? I haven't been around at all this week, but I'm still holding my shorts at the moment. I'm seeing nothing but down now for this pair for the next week or so. The weeklies should be pretty good for a few pairs as well. My nzd/usd shorts are going good and the weekly bar looks like it will want to push price lower still. I need to get back to looking at the charts then I'll post anything as I see it forming out. Eur/jpy longs are still looking good to me too. I'm not too sure what I missed throughout this week but I'm looking at things now.
I dream, therefore I become.
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