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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #3,321
  • Apr 24, 2008 2:13am Apr 24, 2008 2:13am
Quoting annieb
I've been following this thread, not very successfully I might add, because I get nervous when it goes way negative, then tend to cut it too soon when it goes positive.

However, can I just ask something, at the mo the trend appears to be down...initially I had a buy set for 800, but it sailed thro that without a blip, and now it's gone thro 765, and hovering below 750...so I'm kind of thinking 700 seems more likely than 800. Is it better to wait and see what evolves? Or go with current down trend and sell instead of buy?

How do you have the confidence that the upward trend is still intact? Given 1600 never held. I find it difficult to have the confidence to make the decision to go long when surrounded by red candles. Then miss the set-up, enter too late, etc.

A bit jumbled I know, what I 'm trying to say I suppose, while the $ is weaker, I feel the euro isn't exactly going to benefit long-term on these highs. So a correction is bound to come about and how do you know that this isn't it. Under the anti hedge strategy how to you trade in ranging markets?

If anyone can understand what I 'm trying to say - thanks for your help and good luck.
on a short time frame the direction does appear short however the major trend is long, so going short might yield you some short term pips but this style is about treading med/long term.

the pull back at the moment is long overdue. the market has been pushing and pushing for some time and now is the draw back that we have been awaiting.

id ppull a longer term fib and look to see where your 50% is at. then check for whole numbers, signs of previous support ect and take judgement from there.

there is no reason not too put a trade in. these last couple of weeks have been a bit tricky. trust what you see and trae it. if it goes wrong then there are plenty of trades in the future to recover fallen soldiers

max
  • #3,322
  • Edited 2:15am Apr 24, 2008 2:14am | Edited 2:15am
Quoting shadowninja
Be careful out there, guys.

Re wounded soldiers, are they still valid if the market has climbed up?
...are valid once and once only, you dont AH an AH, thats chasing the market, Raz
actually Im not sure thats what you meant
Ah I think you meant if the market goes up before going back down, yes they are valid, they are waiting for a 50 plus drop below your stop out
Never say never.
  • #3,323
  • Apr 24, 2008 2:21am Apr 24, 2008 2:21am
Quoting annieb
I've been following this thread, not very successfully I might add, because I get nervous when it goes way negative, then tend to cut it too soon when it goes positive.

However, can I just ask something, at the mo the trend appears to be down...initially I had a buy set for 800, but it sailed thro that without a blip, and now it's gone thro 765, and hovering below 750...so I'm kind of thinking 700 seems more likely than 800. Is it better to wait and see what evolves? Or go with current down trend and sell instead of buy?

How do you have the confidence that the upward trend is still intact? Given 1600 never held. I find it difficult to have the confidence to make the decision to go long when surrounded by red candles. Then miss the set-up, enter too late, etc.

A bit jumbled I know, what I 'm trying to say I suppose, while the $ is weaker, I feel the euro isn't exactly going to benefit long-term on these highs. So a correction is bound to come about and how do you know that this isn't it. Under the anti hedge strategy how to you trade in ranging markets?

If anyone can understand what I 'm trying to say - thanks for your help and good luck.
I'm a complete newbie so please bear that in mind with whatever I say here.

You say the trend is down. If you look at a chart over say a year or more you will see that the trend is up. Today it has gone down yes. The principal here is that we assume [or have been] that the trend is up. So we never short this market - unless we are going with the risky Counter Trend Trade which is not for newbies. So if we accept that the trend is up then the strategy is just a matter of deciding when to enter and when to exit.

If you are feeling nervous then try demo trading. I didn't take demo trading seriously so instead use real money but only the minimum amount allowed by my broker per point. So its real money but not life changing.

Trading is a lot about the battle you have with yourself. Greed brings you to this business. Then fear and panic cause you to get in a mess. You will not understand this fear and panic unless you have real money at stake. This is why demo trading is not a real test for me. But it can prove to you that money [play money] can be made.

Good luck to you.
  • #3,324
  • Apr 24, 2008 2:23am Apr 24, 2008 2:23am
Quoting cruze2005
bottom just fell out, now wheres those elephants gone
Probably filling their trunks with a load of water ready to let loose.
  • #3,325
  • Apr 24, 2008 2:29am Apr 24, 2008 2:29am
went long at 5735 for a short trip..
make money up or down...whatever ! :
  • #3,326
  • Apr 24, 2008 2:31am Apr 24, 2008 2:31am
Great work bro, I love to read you.
{Promotion Removed}
  • #3,327
  • Apr 24, 2008 2:44am Apr 24, 2008 2:44am
Thanks for taking the time to reply and for the advice. And tho I've looked at the longer term charts, it's a cursory look - with my mind made up on the immediate time frame...doh!

I think from what you are saying is this - or rather I hope I've got it right- what I am doing wrong is trying to pick a round number or 50 number to close to the bottom instead of more trusted areas. And it's better to miss out the true bottoms because you don't know whether price is going down further. But in the more trusted areas, price is more likely to hit the next 50 or round number on the way up.

I'm only in demo - but have been trying scalping for about 10 months - too nerve wracking overall. I'll read the thread again - properly this time, in the hope it'll sink in, instead of having half a clue and being half wrong!!

Cheers!
  • #3,328
  • Apr 24, 2008 2:56am Apr 24, 2008 2:56am
in my humble opinion, if price starts heading back up, and 1.5800 holds, then above 1.5800 would be a good entry. looking at a 4hr chart, price has bounced off the February lows and supporting trendline (and long term MA used in another method not relevant here)
  • #3,329
  • Apr 24, 2008 2:56am Apr 24, 2008 2:56am
Quoting takeprofit
Hoping [obviously] that its gotta go north eventually.
Why does everyone ignore jacko's advice?

http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1966488&postcount=3249

The original warning went under 300 posts ago, this one was completely ignored just as well(80 posts whooshed by swiftly).

There's likely going to be another retrace, but don't expect the market to be one-way forever.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #3,330
  • Apr 24, 2008 3:09am Apr 24, 2008 3:09am
Quoting SeekingLight
Why does everyone ignore jacko's advice?

http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1966488&postcount=3249

The original warning went under 300 posts ago, this one was completely ignored just as well(80 posts whooshed by swiftly).

There's likely going to be another retrace, but don't expect the market to be one-way forever.
I'm over in the other thread wondering the same thing my self. i gave this warning.

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/progress.gifTrichet speaks in the morning, USD durable goods at the same time, Unemployment at the same time, and new home sales 2 hours later. Lately just when you think Us news should be bad, it has been good. I'm looking for this thing to tank. starting an hour after london opening. just my 2 cents! Look for a consolidation for the next hour or so, followed by a small push upward on the news release at 4, then another couple of hours of consolidation, and then the 8:30 news announcements. That's when I hope that you have your parachutes, because this thing is going to test areas it hasn't seen in a while.

at 1:30 this morning before the drop! Posted
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #3,331
  • Apr 24, 2008 3:21am Apr 24, 2008 3:21am
I think if the market take out 18th April low we will be in a medium term down trend. I will be looking for short positions. I looked up the daily chart and I see 3 possible bottoms regarding market health.

1.5000
1.4650
1.4350

Time will tell what the market picks. Of course I could be wrong cause it is a big call.

Ocean
  • #3,332
  • Apr 24, 2008 3:28am Apr 24, 2008 3:28am
Seekinglight & Tonyo524,

I agree with you both. There are more variations to the Jacko Method than you can count. Some have entered @ 5850 & 5800 looking for higher. Tonyo524 your break down of whats next is spot on. Jacko would not have posted that warning for nothing. Maybe the former pit trader??? will weightin & save the day for those not heeding the warning. NOT.

____________
AceTrader
  • #3,333
  • Apr 24, 2008 3:29am Apr 24, 2008 3:29am
Quoting SeekingLight
Why does everyone ignore jacko's advice?

http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1966488&postcount=3249

The original warning went under 300 posts ago, this one was completely ignored just as well(80 posts whooshed by swiftly).

There's likely going to be another retrace, but don't expect the market to be one-way forever.
...has traded himself since that advice, I wont say what or when thats up to him to discuss if he wants to...
You are right this isnt going to go up forever but in the meantime there has been money to be made(thankyou market), can anybody tell EXACTLY when the top is coming in or the bottom...or the middle for that matter...nice to see you posting SL, take care, Raz
Never say never.
  • #3,334
  • Apr 24, 2008 3:43am Apr 24, 2008 3:43am
The wast majority of traders here play this game too often. Why? Because they are more scalpers than trend followers.

Jacko method is pure trend following method and as such works best.

Ocean
  • #3,335
  • Apr 24, 2008 4:05am Apr 24, 2008 4:05am
Quoting razldazl
...has traded himself since that advice, I wont say what or when thats up to him to discuss if he wants to...
My guess would be he's sold rather than bought the EUR given that warning, contrary to many

Would be interesting to see where jacko sees possible boundaries for a move lower.

//
Nice to see you're still around as well
Are ya combining the powers of PA with the patience of the turtle now Raz?
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #3,336
  • Apr 24, 2008 4:15am Apr 24, 2008 4:15am
Quoting SeekingLight
My guess would be he's sold rather than bought the EUR given that warning, contrary to many

Would be interesting to see where jacko sees possible boundaries for a move lower.

//
Nice to see you're still around as well
Are ya combining the powers of PA with the patience of the turtle now Raz?

Hey seeking light. I'm looking at if we break 1.5706 which is the 61.8 fib, and the daily support 3 area on my chart, also the last major test before retrace. I see the area of 1.5600 down to 1.5510 by the weekend closing
Just my humble opinion though.
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #3,337
  • Apr 24, 2008 4:36am Apr 24, 2008 4:36am
Quoting SeekingLight
My guess would be he's sold rather than bought the EUR given that warning, contrary to many

Would be interesting to see where jacko sees possible boundaries for a move lower.

//
Nice to see you're still around as well
Are ya combining the powers of PA with the patience of the turtle now Raz?
...you will have to get that from the man himself , as for me youre right thats exactly what Im doing, its a powerful combination indeed I hear you are quite a star in the pf, great work Raz
Never say never.
  • #3,338
  • Apr 24, 2008 4:48am Apr 24, 2008 4:48am
Quoting tonyo524
Hey seeking light. I'm looking at if we break 1.5706 which is the 61.8 fib, and the daily support 3 area on my chart, also the last major test before retrace. I see the area of 1.5600 down to 1.5510 by the weekend closing
Just my humble opinion though.
Hi.
Not sure whether there was a question in there, but I thought I'd be polite and say hello as well
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #3,339
  • Apr 24, 2008 4:50am Apr 24, 2008 4:50am
Quoting razldazl
...you will have to get that from the man himself , as for me youre right thats exactly what Im doing, its a powerful combination indeed I hear you are quite a star in the pf, great work Raz
Thanks Raz
Glad to hear it!

Well, with Jim everyone's got the chance to become a star, that's the beauty of it, isn't it?

Powerful indeed.

Okay, I'ma stop cluttering jacko's thread now, my bad

-
I'm constantly respectfully amazed at how much experience and "feeling" jacko has for this market.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #3,340
  • Apr 24, 2008 5:35am Apr 24, 2008 5:35am
Fellow Traders,

I personally think that we are seeing markets move due to political/Gov. intervention more so than Fundies, or the Techs.

When markets operate like this you can through your charts out the window, you don't stand a chance attempting to interpret by technicals and now for the short term, Fundies do not make sense.

My opinion of what is going on.
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