Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

Not going to make a rash entry tonight on the Tokyo.

Judging by current movement 5800 looks like potential support.. I guess we won't know really what will go on until London opens.

Will check back after a nice long snooze

I just returnd to screen and noticed 5850 order filled on spike down thru TL. I usually close resting orders before NY close but missed this one. Will see...Inital SL @5748.

It will be a bit of a bargin at that price if the market heads up now, but if not you can always catch it on the flip side.

Not sure if that 1.5800 target is going to get hit. Seems like something is at 1.5850. Might put an order in at 1.5900. If you're familiar with pinbars at all, we may be getting one on the 4 hour if price continues going up.

Hey, come on Zoopy, I'm meant to be the Bernanke channeling clone in these parts. You know, trade the opposite to what I think and you will be in profit. Appeared as you said that it may keep going up it started to go down again.

I've put a buy in at 1.5900 to catch it on the way up. If it drops past 1.5750 I'll cancel this and put one in at 1.5800.

K8

Just a perspective reply on this E/U daily chart...please look at your own GMT adjusted...

Look at Weekly, and then Monthly charts...

Advancing prices on both time frames have grossly respected the 45-degree TL angle; this Tech Analsys is documented by many authors as a precurser to retracements of n"th degree levels. Who knows?...but it may be scarry entering a weekend with market exposure...

Be careful traders of the volatilaty,

DC

Flaherty Says Currency Markets Ignored G-7 Statement (Update2)
By Monica Bertran and Greg Quinn
April 23 (Bloomberg) -- Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Jim%0AFlaherty&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:S:d1) said currency markets appear to have ignored a Group of Seven statement expressing concern about the decline in the U.S. dollar.
``It doesn't seem to have affected the market very much, that particular statement of concern,'' Flaherty said in a Bloomberg Television interview from New York today.
The G-7 this month warned recent ``sharp fluctuations'' in exchange rates risk hurting the global economy. Luxembourg Finance Minister Jean-Claude Juncker (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Jean-Claude+Juncker&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:S:d1) and French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Christine+Lagarde&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:S:d1) have also expressed frustration that investors haven't paid more attention to the change in the G-7's language.
The G-7 April 11 statement from Washington was the first significant change in wording on currencies since February 2004 in Boca Raton, Florida, when the group denounced ``excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates.''
``The statement itself papered over lots of differences and the fact is, regardless of what they say, people in the market tend to see the differences more than the unity on currencies as the main feature of the G-7,'' said David Gilmore (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=David+Gilmore&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:S:d1), a partner at Foreign Exchange Analytics, an Essex, Connecticut-based research company.
No Intervention
The euro fell the most against the dollar in more than three weeks today after Juncker (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Juncker&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:S:d1) signaled concern that the pace of the U.S. currency's decline will hurt economic growth.
Flaherty said G-7 officials didn't discuss the possibility of a coordinated intervention in currency markets to support the U.S. dollar. ``There was no discussion of a direct intervention when we were together,'' he said.
The euro has risen 0.6 percent in April and 8.9 percent against the dollar this year.
France's Lagarde (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=+Lagarde&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:S:d1) said April 14 that investors haven't grasped the magnitude of the shift, likening its significance to the 1985 Plaza Accord. The Group of Five at that time agreed to ``coordinated intervention'' to drive down the dollar.
Juncker, who heads a group of counterparts from the euro area, told reporters today that ``it was not the intention of the G-7 to lead to the result we are noting today.''
The euro dropped 0.8 percent to $1.5871 at 11:13 a.m. in New York, from $1.5991 yesterday, when it climbed to $1.6019, the highest level since the currency's 1999 debut. The dollar rose 0.7 percent to 103.76 yen, from 103.02.
``I know the Europeans are particularly concerned with the appreciation of the euro, vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar,'' Flaherty said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Greg Quinn (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Greg+Quinn&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:S:d1) in Ottawa at ([email protected]).

What is Next for the US Dollar?
After hitting a record low against the Euro on Tuesday, there has been little follow through selling in the US dollar, leaving many traders wondering whether this may be a pause before further losses or a potential bottom. Although we are long term dollar bears, the break of 1.60 is far from impressive. This indicates that there isn’t much speculative interest in taking the Euro higher in the near term, especially as economic data and official comments start to turn against the Euro and in favor of the US dollar. Earlier this week we had better than expected US housing market numbers. We would not be surprised to also see a recovery in new home sales. Even though US durable goods will be pressured by the sales of furniture and electronics, Boeing’s incredibly solid end of quarter earnings and their expectations of another strong year suggests that sales of non-defense aircraft could be firm. As for the Eurozone, we expect German business confidence to deteriorate materially (discussed in Euro section). Fed fund futures are currently pricing in an 82 percent chance of a quarter point rate cut next week with the remaining 18 percent probability in favor of no rate cut at all. This is a sharp departure from just a week ago when the market was pricing in a 76 percent chance of a 25bp cut and a 24 percent chance of a 50bp cut. The only reason for this dramatic shift in expectations is the increased inflationary pressures. A week ago, oil prices were trading at $113 a barrel and yesterday it hit an intraday high of $119.90 a barrel. The dollar should continue to recover for the rest of the week, but the party may end the following week when we have the Federal Reserve interest rate decision and non-farm payrolls due for release. We believe that the market may be under pricing the degree of Fed rate cuts because the problems in the US economy are far from over. Non-farm payrolls should continue to drop while consumer spending will probably slow, leaving the Federal Reserve with a lot of work ahead of them.
Euro Could Fall on German Business Confidence
The Euro has failed to extend its gains beyond 1.60 and we believe that another day of losses may be in store for the single currency. More signs of weakness in the Eurozone economy are beginning to reveal themselves. Even though service sector PMI improved in the month of April, manufacturing sector PMI deteriorated. This suggests that German business confidence could have also decreased this month as indicated by the ZEW survey. A little watched report called the Belgium Business Sentiment Index also tends to have a strong correlation with German IFO (chart (http://www.kathylien.com/site/euro/eurjpy-ready-for-a-top)). The index fell to a 2.5 year low in the month of April with the drop being the steepest on record. A large decline in German business confidence would be exactly what the Euro needs for a more meaningful turn. Meanwhile ECB member Noyer backtracked the comments that he made yesterday, which drove the EUR/USD to a record high. He said that the market misinterpreted his words and that the ECB is not looking to hike interest rates. For the time being, don’t expect them to lower rates either.
DailyFX News

My overnight buy order was triggered at 1.5850 and I'm happy with it.
Funny, yesturday was only zoopy ant me thinking it will go to 1.5800 , today everybody.. crazy.

I would say 1.5850 has as much of a support as 1.5800. I heard somebody mention in the forum of xx50 not having as much impact as xx00 . Well read Jacko rules again. He mentions use round numbers and that is xx50 and xx00 . Have you been following price action ?
Remember price at 1.5350 ? more recent 1.5950 and some time ago 1.5850. xx00 doesn't have much over xx50 .

Here's Jacko's quote from page one:

Maybe later he introduces xx50, but I do not want to re-read the whole thread to find out where.

-Sean

I very well remember how jacko missed to send us an entry at 1.5350 , meaning he uses those xx50 's

All I'm saying xx50 have as much or almost as much as xx00 . Thought maybe price doesn't test all xx50's like it doesn't test all xx00's .

On the H4, IF price action does bottom around 1.5788 then this will produce a higher swing bottom, which, with the higher swing top already in place, means the uptrend is still intact.

This will also show up on the Daily as a potential swing low PROVIDING price goes below 1.5833. Just eyeballing everything with the rhythm of the Daily, it does seems today should produce an intermediate low

With due respect to Jacko and the "round numbers" discussion, a safer long entry would be a couple of pips above the high of today, 4/24. Having said that, any entry is insured by Jacko's brilliant A-H Strategy

However, this does not take into account the action of mindless Euro politicians!

The Daily POTENTIAL swing low is now in. What we need now is a HIGHER Daily low tomorrow, 4/25, to CONFIRM the swing low. A bullish candle on either H4 or the Daily would then set us up nicely for another ride up on Jacko's Magical Euro train.

Don't forget the overhead resistance at 1.6019 and last but not least, the clowns in politics!

The price drop (at least temporarily) stopped at the 61.8% fib retracement number on the 4 hour. I know this isn't a Jacko entry point but many forex traders swear by the number. And as we know the more who believe in a point the more it works.

-Sean

Good Morning Everyone

This further price drop has given me the opportunity to add to my position at both 5855 and 5835. If it drops to 5800 I will add more.

Hoping [obviously] that its gotta go north eventually.

TP

Care to explain about those swings? Hard to take that into consideration when you have no idea of what it is

Wow , what a fight between bulls/bears .

Care to explain about those swings? Hard to take that into consideration when you have no idea of what it is

Prices move in swings and then in waves. Think of swings as Zig Zags pointing up in an uptrend.

A swing high is a high that has a price higher than the preceeding high price followed by a lower high price. A swing low is a low that has a lower low price than the preceeding low price followed by a higher low price.

The Daily bar on 4/18 is a swing low and the Daily bar on 4/22 is a swing high.

Hope this helps

If you take a look on You Tube there is a guy called Ira Epstein who explains this theory pretty well. Try clicking here - http://www.youtube.com/user/IraEpsteinFutures

I c . I had developed a system some time ago about buying at new highs on daily. It works quite well. thought Jacko method is about buying CHEAP or in other words buying in correction of the market. Also I think Jackos method is better, but it's harder to trade because charts do not quite give you the exact entry points and you have to think for your self.. not as simple.