Daily Cable Analysis

I didn't mean that you must not trust them at all, What I said was, don't "always" trust them. I mean, don't take them as gospel. Anyway, what I can say is, it's pointless to understand what drive the market, you will never know, and in fact, nobody knows, people can only give their opinion and they might be right, or totally wrong. I still remember not long ago when 99% of the people say the market would go up after a news release, but what happened was totally opposite from what was predicted.

Agrred, this is the best part.

7)don't use ur money, use other and split the profit with u.

I am expecting the move up yes past 9800. However, I'm playing this from a longer term perspective with no leverage at this point just in case. I think the key in the near term will be if we can get over that dreaded 9777.77777 level and use it as support. On the daily's a close above 9750 would also be encouraging.If that were to occur, from there on out, my personal opinion is for a ranging market between that 9770 level and oh lets just say 9889 until news time on friday. The other scenario that I feel is possible with all of this indecision is if we hit a high in the 9830 level today and a close above 9750, better yet would be 9770, then tomorrow can play out as a tight range inside day in anticipation of the news on friday. Then the inside day extremes will allow weak longs or no position speculators the opportunity to sell stop the low of the inside day, only to have news come around to the $ weak side and take out yesterdays high, up to 2.0000 or nearby. If so, watch out for that big gap up on Monday.

I am getting way too ahead of myself.

Thanks...

lol!

the people who are doing the prediciting want you to listen to them and be wrong and lose, so that you will get frustrated and give them your money to trade. they are losing commissions because we do our own trading. they spent 200,000 going to college and business schools to learn how to trade and we spent a couple grand on software and accounts and make money and they do not get any. trust me they say and it has cost me 50 grand in losses. they made money, what do they care. this is my way to stick i to them!! there is a method to their madness, i am just hoping we all can put our heads together and get a little insight and profit at their expense. i know, lofty goals, but hey, we are all here to make some serious pips !!!!!!!!!

thanks leugi, makes everything a little clearer.

i still like my idea i sent to cesar about a one-day,one-hour movement of 500 down,500 up move, then it can do whatever it want the rest of the time!!

...lol, i dont believe any of us is trading with their own money...if we were then there wouldnt be any margin...

leugi

what time do you use as the daily close time????

I know it may be ackward but 5PM ET. I have seen so many variations on this, but it works for me.

Pound Extends Decline; BoE Voted 5-4 to Raise Rates This Month

By Agnes Lovasz

Jan. 24 (Bloomberg) -- The pound extended its decline after minutes from the latest Bank of England meeting of policy makers showed five out of nine rate setters voted to increase the benchmark rate.
The scale of the division raises the prospect of greater opposition to further increases in borrowing costs. The pound fell earlier today after BOE Governor Mervyn King said inflation may decline ``quite sharply'' in the second half of this year. The U.K. currency yesterday touched the highest against the dollar since September 1992 after an industry report stoked speculation of a rate increase.
``The market assumed a little too much as they were toying with 50 basis points of increases from here,'' said Neil Mellor, a currency strategist at Bank of New York in London. ``Like the split of the vote shows, there is not enough evidence to warrant another hike. We will get more weakness in the pound as the market recoils from expecting 50 basis points.''
Against the dollar, the pound fell to $1.9756 at 10:40 a.m. in London, the lowest in four sessions, from $1.9841 late yesterday. Against the euro, the pound was at 65.80 pence from 65.63 yesterday.
Mellor forecasts the pound will be little changed against the dollar in the next three months and then gain to $2.03 in 12 months. Against the euro, it will be between 65 and 66 pence in the next six to 12 months, he said.
The size of the split in the BoE vote was predicted by none of the 22 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The dissenters said there was insufficient news to warrant an immediate increase, which ran the risk of sparking an over-reaction in financial markets.(and killing exports)
`Quite Sharply'
Traders scaled back expectations for further rate increases by the BoE this year, futures trading shows.(Which group of traders)
Declines in the pound may be tempered after a government report published today showed the economy grew 0.8 percent last quarter, its fastest pace in 2 1/2 years.(not good for BOE Governor Mervyn King)
The Monetary Policy Council said inflation may stay above the bank's 2 percent target for longer than earlier forecast, according to the minutes. The bank unexpectedly raised the key interest rate by a quarter point to 5.25 percent on Jan. 11. (Shocker)
``The committee's central view remains that inflation is likely to fall back in the second half of the year, possibly quite sharply,'' King said yesterday in a speech to the annual banquet of the Birmingham Chambers of Commerce in central England. ``As ever, there are risks around that central view -- in both directions.'' (Better fess up to this or you may have some explaining to do)
Fourth-quarter economic growth was more than the 0.7 percent median estimate expected in a Bloomberg News survey. The annual growth rate increased to 3 percent from 2.9 percent.
Inflation accelerated to 3 percent in December, a decade- high, and manufacturing and services surveys point to strengthening economic growth.
Inflation Risks
``The risks are still there and the BoE is willing to hike rates,'' said Adrian Hughes, a currency strategist at Societe Generale SA in London. ``What King says is that with rising rates now inflation will probably fall more sharply later as early rate hikes feed through to the economy. So things are not so rosy for sterling.''
Hughes forecasts the pound at $1.94 to the dollar and at 68 pence per euro in three months.(three months, 5 months - whats the difference)
The pound may also be buoyed by signs speculators are withdrawing from so-called carry trades - whereby investors fund the purchase of high-yielding assets by borrowing at a lower interest rate elsewhere, such as in yen where the benchmark rate is the lowest among industrialized nations.(Ok, which one is it, speculators or investors)
The yen rose the most in almost two months as speculators took off carry trades on expectations central banks in the U.K., Australia and New Zealand may delay interest-rate increases.
The implied yield on the March 2007 futures contract fell 6 basis points to 5.72 percent today after gaining 27 basis points following the BoE's surprise rate increase. The June 2007 contract shed 7 basis points to 5.82 percent.
The contracts settle to the three-month London inter-bank offered rate for the pound, which averaged about 15 basis points more than the BOE's benchmark for the past decade.

the problem is not about prediction, its all about probability, and to be on the right side when creating the market...if the price goes trou fibo level is more likely that it will continue till next fibo level, if it passes that level, its more likely that it will continue to next level, if it retrace back throu some fibo level, its more likely it will go till next level, ... like today, if 1.9680 would be broken,...it is more likely it will go to 1.9580, since still not broken,...its more likely it will go to 1.9845 ....no system can be 100% right

What would be the expectation for the US session?

This was the session that brought price down to the 9800s, now they are going to get it at 9750s.... after today's roller coaster...

I´m currently long, but this staying at 9750 for so long is worrying me here...
Thanks

I hate copying in articles, but fundamentally, i think this one may give a little bit of clarity to the current situation.

BRITAIN

Inflation

Bad timing

Jan 18th 2007
From The Economist print edition


Now the worry is that higher pay deals may cause higher inflation to persist

http://www.economist.com/images/20070120/CBR747.gif

ON JANUARY 11th the Bank of England shocked the City when it raised the base rate from 5.0% to 5.25%. This week it became clear why the bank's rate-setters made their surprise move. The nine-strong monetary-policy committee had seen an advance estimate of consumer prices, which rose by 3.0% in the year to December. This is the highest rate of increase since the official series began in 1997.
Seldom have inflation figures—published on January 16th—been more eagerly awaited. If the outcome had been a touch higher at 3.1%, Mervyn King, the bank's governor, would have had to write to Gordon Brown explaining why. When the chancellor of the exchequer gave the bank control over interest rates in 1997, he stipulated such an open letter if inflation diverged by more than a percentage point from the target, currently 2.0%.
It is a tribute to the remarkable stability of inflation in the past decade that no governor has yet had to put pen to paper. But on the measure previously used for the target, Mr King's blushes would not have been spared. Until the end of 2003 the bank was instructed to keep inflation at 2.5% for retail prices excluding mortgage-interest payments. Defined this way, inflation in December was 3.8%—an overrun easily big enough to have triggered a letter.
http://www.economist.com/images/blocks/spacer.gif
A bigger concern for Mr King than these epistolary near-misses is what happened to the broader retail-prices index (RPI), which includes mortgage-interest payments. Measured this way, annual inflation jumped from 3.9% in November to 4.4% last month, the highest for 15 years and double the rate in December 2005.
This is a worry for the bank because the public regards the RPI as a more credible measure of inflation than the consumer-prices index (CPI). First, it has the advantage of familiarity, since it dates back to the late 1940s. Second, it covers council tax and owner-occupier housing costs, which are excluded from the CPI. In principle, the CPI—a series devised to be compatible across the European Union—should incorporate housing expenses, but this has been delayed as European statisticians work out how to do this.
The RPI's credibility is likely to be further enhanced by an initiative designed to counter a widespread lack of public trust in the official inflation figures. On January 15th the Office for National Statistics launched a web-based “personal inflation calculator”. This allows people to work out how their own inflation rate may vary from the official average because of differences in their spending patterns. For example, a renter who lashes out on electronics will currently have a lower rate whereas an owner-occupier with a big mortgage loan will have a higher one. Significantly, the statistical office chose the RPI rather than the CPI for the calculator.
The bank's main headache is that the current bout of high RPI inflation is coinciding with a crucial period for wage negotiations. Nearly two-thirds of this year's pay deals will be hammered out in the first four months, mostly in January and April. The RPI measure of inflation is usually used as the benchmark in these negotiations. The danger is that the agreements will reflect current rates of high inflation, which will then entrench them in a classic “price-wages” upward spiral.
Average earnings in the three months to November grew by 4.1% compared with the same period in 2005. That growth is comfortably below 4.5%, when the bank gets worried. The figures record what has been going on rather than what is about to happen, however. The first pay deals of the year, covering a fifth of the employees who settle in January, suggest grounds for concern. According to Incomes Data Services, the typical increase was 4%, sharply up on the previous 3% level. If sustained, this would jolt earnings growth above 4.5%; “pay drift” means that total earnings, which also include bonuses and overtime, tend to increase faster than basic pay.
The outcome of wage negotiations over the next few months will thus determine what happens to inflation. If demands for higher pay can be contained, then inflation should retreat in the middle of the year as lower wholesale oil and gas prices eventually bring down domestic energy costs. But if wages do move ahead decisively, then it will be harder for the bank to put inflation back into the cage, and it will have to yank up interest rates again.

what a tangled web we weave!!!!

Think the market is under "reconfiguration".... so just wait...

buy opportunity @1.9695/90 now....

According to wave count, it should continue to go down but not for long; it should be on final sub-wave of current downwards wave 3 now (starting from 1.9830).
My 2 pips.

Goin to test M1 again

Most probably will reach S2

could you provide your R/S/M please ?