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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #3,261
  • Apr 23, 2008 4:15pm Apr 23, 2008 4:15pm
Quoting panhandler
My buy limit got picked up last night at 5865, I took profit at 5888 for a 23 pip profit. We have been seeing a pretty consistent fall on the latest 4h candle, Do you all think we will see 5800 soon? and if so why?
Anything is possible Even if all of us agreed it would go down, doesn't mean it would happen. What's important is that you have a plan for when it goes up and one when it goes down. I rather buy at say 5950 when the market actually gathers momentum than to buy at 5900 wondering whether it's going up.
  • #3,262
  • Apr 23, 2008 4:36pm Apr 23, 2008 4:36pm
Quoting zoopy
Anything is possible Even if all of us agreed it would go down, doesn't mean it would happen. What's important is that you have a plan for when it goes up and one when it goes down. I rather buy at say 5950 when the market actually gathers momentum than to buy at 5900 wondering whether it's going up.
Thank you for the response, Buy if we see a fall to 5800, do you think the volumes would rise considering 5800 would be a bargain buy over the last two days?
Live From Los Angeles
  • #3,263
  • Apr 23, 2008 4:40pm Apr 23, 2008 4:40pm
Quoting zoopy
I still have a feeling we're going to see 1.5800. If you look at how price is behaving around 1.5900, it seems very sluggish. It went up above 5900 briefly but then dropped. If there were big buy orders... we should be around 5950+ or something by now.
I agree with you Zoopy. The trendline drawn from the low of the 24/3 to the low of the 18/4 appears to offering support. It has 2 inner touches at 3/4 and 14/4) therefore satisfying the 3 touch rule for significance. This TL projected up has 1.5800 as it's position for the next trading day. A fall through 1.5800 would signal a significant break in my thoughts and then we could really see much lower levels.

Just my 2 cents

K8
  • #3,264
  • Apr 23, 2008 4:45pm Apr 23, 2008 4:45pm
Quoting panhandler
Thank you for the response, Buy if we see a fall to 5800, do you think the volumes would rise considering 5800 would be a bargain buy over the last two days?
lol. I have no idea. I'm not saying to buy 1.5800 either but rather to watch that area to see what price tells you first. If price decides to drop and we do see 1.5800, I'll be watching to see how it reacts to that level (this is the reason why I pointed out the round number levels earlier - to get traders familiar with the way the market moves around them). If we drop further, then I'll be watching 1.5400.
  • #3,265
  • Apr 23, 2008 4:55pm Apr 23, 2008 4:55pm
Quoting Khornate8
I agree with you Zoopy. The trendline drawn from the low of the 24/3 to the low of the 18/4 appears to offering support. It has 2 inner touches at 3/4 and 14/4) therefore satisfying the 3 touch rule for significance. This TL projected up has 1.5800 as it's position for the next trading day. A fall through 1.5800 would signal a significant break in my thoughts and then we could really see much lower levels.

Just my 2 cents

K8
Interesting... I didn't even have any trendlines on my charts so had to check lol. When we started climbing and the market started to chop around more, I resorted to just basic support lines. Here's the reason why I'm watching 1.5800.
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  • #3,266
  • Apr 23, 2008 4:59pm Apr 23, 2008 4:59pm
Thanks Zoopy
Live From Los Angeles
  • #3,267
  • Apr 23, 2008 5:51pm Apr 23, 2008 5:51pm
]Thought I would post up a chart on how I am seeing this,in hope someone can tell me what there take is on this.The top trendline looks good and has the 50% fib to back it up.The second though is IMO a safer trade.A larger retracement. I guess I will see how price reacts to the first one if not satisfied with price action wait for the second.Any thoughts anyone?
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  • #3,268
  • Apr 23, 2008 6:09pm Apr 23, 2008 6:09pm
Price action now is a little like my beer last night - weak!

The H4 TL cross and Fib correctly called the trend change (swing low) but the bars after are all inside bars and so far, are paralleling above the TL down. Any weakness will break that support.

The daily has broken below it's ascending triangle and it's higher TL support and the 4/23 bar down almost takes out the prior day.

It's Thursday here and Tokyo are getting ready to trade so if you take a look at the Weekly, you will see a Shooting Star or Pin Bar already formed. It will need a big positive price movement today and tomorrow to nullify the bearish connotations of that bar.

Jacko teaches to take the signals and action off the Daily (nothing else except maybe his intuition (gut feel)) and then go to the H4 to fine tune your entry. The signal on my Daily is bearish but since we are still overall Long and looking for higher numbers, it is not a place to go short. Maybe Newbietrader can short this but like Jacko, he is playing with a lot of the market's money, and can afford to take these riskier positions.
For me, using my hard earned money, it is a time to shut up shop and wait for the Daily to turn around, get out of this constipation, and give us a clear signal that the main trend (Long) is resuming.

Just my take on my trading - nothing else and each to his own strategies and methods.
  • #3,269
  • Apr 23, 2008 6:22pm Apr 23, 2008 6:22pm
Maybe you should change beers,Jager is my posion
  • #3,270
  • Apr 23, 2008 6:52pm Apr 23, 2008 6:52pm
Nicely put eirron
  • #3,271
  • Apr 23, 2008 8:10pm Apr 23, 2008 8:10pm
on the down move now
  • #3,272
  • Apr 23, 2008 8:13pm Apr 23, 2008 8:13pm
In tokyo session there was a price spike down to 5850

It may be too early to say, but it is looking slightly bearish at this point; however, there is a lot of economic news coming up tomorrow in the London session that perhaps could give us that impetus needed to push the markets back into that trend we so treasured for these passed couple of weeks... years for that matter :
  • #3,273
  • Apr 23, 2008 8:17pm Apr 23, 2008 8:17pm
Quoting trader79
Hello Archer, thanks for your response and clarifying this.

How big is the stop loss Jacko recommends at the moment?

What does Jacko thinks abot using an ATR adjusted SL all the time instead of using a fix SL?
trader79,
The ATR and SL have been discussed in the blog recently. I will stick to my original answer because Jacko asked us not to discuss specific changes on the forum. He is very sensitive to the emotions of traders new to his method. I don't think he would want traders to test changes to his method with real money. He really thinks things through. When Jacko decides to post a change then you can ask him why.

Sorry I can't be more specific but that's just the way it will be until Jacko says otherwise.

Just remember if you do venture out and change the TSL please adjust your position size accordingly.

Archer
  • #3,274
  • Apr 23, 2008 8:27pm Apr 23, 2008 8:27pm
At 10:20am Tokyo time, price has dropped to the next meaningful Fib line at 1.5854 and is currently hovering at 1.5855.

All my H4 TLs have lost their support right now and based on the next TL cross 4 bars from now, it looks like the price action is down at which time the TL cross calls for a turn.

The next Fib line is the Daily at 1.5844 and after that, 1.5660
  • #3,275
  • Apr 23, 2008 8:32pm Apr 23, 2008 8:32pm
Will price stall at the 1.5850 for a ride back up?
  • #3,276
  • Apr 23, 2008 8:40pm Apr 23, 2008 8:40pm
Quoting jlmac27
Will price stall at the 1.5850 for a ride back up?
No...LOL
  • #3,277
  • Apr 23, 2008 8:43pm Apr 23, 2008 8:43pm
yeah it is taken the downward route!
  • #3,278
  • Apr 23, 2008 8:44pm Apr 23, 2008 8:44pm
I'm having difficulty in trying to find meaningful support on the H4 from which to draw the parallel TL from the tops of this new downtrend.

The best I can find shows price heading towards 1.5782 at the TL cross/turn bar.

I am not into predictions as the market knows best and will do what it wants to do - I just wait for a signal from price action on the Daily to confirm the direction.
  • #3,279
  • Apr 23, 2008 8:46pm Apr 23, 2008 8:46pm
i'm looking at 1.5800 as a possible entry. it fits nicely with the current support line on the 4 hour chart. I broke even earlier today with an entry at 1.5865 (50% fib level). hopefully the 5800 level will hold. happy trading to all.
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  • #3,280
  • Apr 23, 2008 8:49pm Apr 23, 2008 8:49pm
It looks to 1.5800 is going to be a support,but time will tell,let price show you, if it isn't there than wait for the nextsupport area.
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