zoopy's trading journal

Quoting raczekfx

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It could be. I still think, euro is moving higher because of oil at the moment. If we get sell off in oil futures, fiber should drop quickly... . All that talk from euro official about inflationary pressures in europe is .... a smoke and a cover up for things about to happen....(imho)

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Quoting zoopy

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I'm still a little surprised it hasn't broken 1.6000. You'd think it would have broken it by now. That's probably why I think there's something hiding behind the bushes. Might have to light up a few bushes to see what jumps out lol.

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Quoting zoopy

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Attached is a line chart with the area I'm now going to be keeping an eye on for a possible buy opportunity in the near future.

1.5800 is the new area of interest. We now have two well defined reference points hitting that area as indicated by the arrows. If price happens to drop below 1.5800 then 1.5400 will be the next area of interest.

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Quoting Matrixxdg

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Hi Zoop.... well I guess this theory was blown to Hell... LOL.

Man what is thing going to do? I work with an Italian girl who is going home next month for vacation.... and all day long..."Well what's the Euro/U doing" I told her to take out a loan. MG

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Quoting zoopy

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lol. I still think there's something behind that 1.6000 barrier. The reason why I made that analysis a few posts ago has to do with how the euro was behaving around 1.5900. I've been noticing more and more aggressive behaviour where whenever it reaches 1.5900 and above, there is a solid 4 hour bar that plunges (look at your 4 hour chart and you'll see what I mean)

Today was further proof that there's something there. Even though 1.6000 was hit, I'm not sure if you happened to see what occurred when we did hit that price. In most cases, when we hit a psychological level like that, there is a burst of momentum that carries it through (usually around 50 pips, sometimes it goes on to do 100+) to make sure that level is broken. However... today we hit 1.6000 and it stopped maybe 13 pips higher but that was it.

I'll be watching 1.5800 when it retraces back. Right now I rather buy at a much lower price.

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Quoting Matrixxdg

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Yeah agreed...oh yeah I was watching.... it hit 1.60 went through and then came back and just played around that level the rest of the afternoon.

Down 30 now.... so I took your advice and have a BUY LIMIT @ 1.5868

We'll see what morning brings. Almost tempted to stay up and watch...but had to many Long Island Ice Teas at Joe's Crab Shack and gotta hit the sack soon.

MG

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Quoting zoopy

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Just a tip since I know you're learning Jacko's method. When you look at areas to buy at, be sure to use round numbers closest to the area. The reason for this is because a lot of big players use them and have orders in those areas. When those orders get triggered, it will help to push price in your favour. Personally I prefer using "xx00" instead of "xx50" numbers. I've found quite often in the past that if we're at 5900 for example and price is struggling to climb, more often than not we'll drop to 5800. This is just my take on it though and others may disagree.

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Quoting Matrixxdg

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Good point....so based on the scenerio right now. 4H TF 50% Fib is at 1.5865 and Price is at 5975. Would you look for an order to trigger at 5800 or 5900?

MG

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Quoting zoopy

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If I was using the bigger number approach I'd always aim for the lower one because I want the best deal. However if your 50.0% fib retracement shows 1.5865, I'll put an order in at 1.5850.

The reason why I'm looking at 1.5800 as a possible buy entry is because of my line chart. I've identified support at that level. I'm also not using the 50.0% fib retracement for the time being because the market is so choppy and if there is intervention of any sort, that'll give me more room to react accordingly.

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Quoting Matrixxdg

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Thanks...Zoop...I'll let you know the outcome in the morning....

Have a good night...the bed's calling my name.

PS... I see your a graphic designer... I'm a Coldfusion programmer.

MG

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Quoting zoopy

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Yes I'm a Graphic Designer and have no idea what a Coldfusion programmer is lol.

Goodnight.

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Quoting Matrixxdg

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HA!.... Sorry... Coldfusion is a programming language for websites. YOU make them pretty, I make them work.

E/U starting to come down.

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Quoting zoopy

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lol. I still think there's something behind that 1.6000 barrier. The reason why I made that analysis a few posts ago has to do with how the euro was behaving around 1.5900. I've been noticing more and more aggressive behaviour where whenever it reaches 1.5900 and above, there is a solid 4 hour bar that plunges (look at your 4 hour chart and you'll see what I mean)

Today was further proof that there's something there. Even though 1.6000 was hit, I'm not sure if you happened to see what occurred when we did hit that price. In most cases, when we hit a psychological level like that, there is a burst of momentum that carries it through (usually around 50 pips, sometimes it goes on to do 100+) to make sure that level is broken. However... today we hit 1.6000 and it stopped maybe 13 pips higher but that was it.

I'll be watching 1.5800 when it retraces back. Right now I rather buy at a much lower price.

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Quoting raczekfx

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Nice analysis Adrian..., this is exactly why I went short in asia at 5991. Mass psychology at work, eh ...
my usd/cad off ppz also did very well...

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Quoting Matrixxdg

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Hey Adrian,
What other pairs have you found that work as good as Jacko's strategy on the E/U. I realize all of them are affected by the round numbers and Fib Lines. But maybe some pairs behave better than others.

Thanks for the explaination of large Buy/Sell orders near the whole numbers. Makes since just never put 2+2 together.

Thanks... for your help.

MG

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Quoting zoopy

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I've never bothered looking much into other pairs. What I do know is what he has laid out in his thread applies to all markets. I even looked at gold for instance and it works. But like I mentioned earlier in my journal, it's cheaper to trade euro. If you're looking to make more, just trade bigger (I caution you on this though).

One thing I see a lot of in these forums are traders trying to trade as many pairs as possible to prove to themselves and others they can be "Master of the Universe" lol. Think about this next time you decide to trade a few pairs (I'm not saying you shouldn't trade more, but keep this in mind). If you were to put 2% on a trade for eurusd and 2% on usdchf and it turns against you, you're no longer trading "2%", you're trading 4%. Correlation between pairs is deadly, if you're going to go that route know what you're getting yourself into.

Another example...
Lets say I put 3% on gbpchf, 3% on gbpjpy, 3% on euraud and lets throw in gbpusd 3% for good measure lol. After I put in my orders, gbpchf turns against me... unfortunately all of them are highly correlated so instead of 3% drawdown, I'm now dealing with a possible 12% drawdown. If you have more pairs you can imagine the carnage.

Bottom line... trading one pair eliminates the correlation problem because the only exposure you have is to that one pair.

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Quoting Matrixxdg

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Great advice...thanks. I am playing today with other pairs and have drawn S/R lines at all the major whole numbers on U/Y and G/Y.

I am currently up 16 pips on the U/Y and 9 on G/Y... interesting how this whole number bounces work.... man have my eyes been opened to something I already knew about, but was too lazy to use, INSTEAD, opted for the indicators to tell me.

Thanks for all of your help Adrian.

PS....HAHA... the SWAP just happened, and even though I am up a combined 22 pips, I am in the hole....11.00usd

MG

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