Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain | Page 163 | Forex Factory

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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #3,241
  • Apr 23, 2008 10:34am Apr 23, 2008 10:34am
Quoting kaunasny
I don't think he would. Him like I , would let the trade go and wait for another retracement to look for entry.

Market has slowed down from that fast falling pace. I have a buy order at 1.5850 waiting.
I would cringe a little, fret somewhat and then let it go. It'll be back, and with more chance of not getting stopped out.
  • #3,242
  • Apr 23, 2008 10:35am Apr 23, 2008 10:35am
Quoting zoopy
This is something I think a lot of traders may be able to benefit from. It's something I did after first discovering Jacko's thread and have monitored it on various pairs.

I'm going to use euro as an example.
Mark off 1.6000 and 1.5900 and 1.5800 on your charts. You'll start to notice that when price struggles to go from say 1.6000 to 1.6100, it will drop to the next level down.

We are currently below 1.5900 which leads me to think we may be headed to 1.5800 (I could be wrong but more often than not it happens). If 1.5800 doesn't hold, we'll slip down to 1.5700 and so on. This will continue to happen until we find a solid footing.

Because of the above effect, I tend to avoid xx50 numbers or anything inbetween unless I have an AH orders in place.
Interesting, has this being paying off for you?
  • #3,243
  • Apr 23, 2008 10:49am Apr 23, 2008 10:49am
Quoting jedsman
Interesting, has this being paying off for you?
I don't trade off just that alone. I use that analysis to help me make my decisions when trading with jacko's method. For example if I was looking at 1.5900 to buy, I will watch price as it hits that level. If I notice it sails through easily without much of a bounce, it tells me price may be headed to the next round number ie. 1.5800. I also pay special attention to xx90, xx80 and xx70. When price falls below xx50, lets just say things don't look too good lol.

Has it paid off for me? Yes, but again, I don't trade off just that, I use that knowledge with Jacko's method. I guess you can say I use it as a gauge to determine strength. I also use it sometimes as a warning sign like what happened with 1.6000 yesterday. It's important to know why price moves at those levels because it helps you to develop a feel for the market.
  • #3,244
  • Apr 23, 2008 10:56am Apr 23, 2008 10:56am
Of course mental support and resistance points like what you mentioned are important, but fully agree with you that it shouldn't be a foundation for your trading, rather an addition.
  • #3,245
  • Apr 23, 2008 12:09pm Apr 23, 2008 12:09pm
Hello everybody!

This method presented here seems to be very interesting.

But I have one important question: It is aimed at a mid-term timeframe, right?

The ATR(20) of EUR/USD is 140 pips at the moment. With a trailing stop of 50 pips like recommended here I see a very small chance to stay in a trade for a longer time.

I would even say that a 50 pips trailing stop and a mid-term or long-term timeframe contradict each other here.

Also another user asked Jacko how he handled one of his reported trades which such a stop cause the amplitude was larger in the uptrend. Unfortunately, I was not able to find an answer to this important question in the discussion here.

Can anybody please clarify this?

(I assume the strategy does not suppose to be stopped out several times a day in a 140 pips ATR market and always use the anti-hedging to get back in. So Jacko stated he has only 3 or so trades a week when I remember correctly.)
  • #3,246
  • Apr 23, 2008 12:22pm Apr 23, 2008 12:22pm
As a newby looking at the rules on the 4h, 50% fib (from the low of the 3rd) and trend lines I would say 15800 is the price to long.
Maintaining the higher lowers also.
  • #3,247
  • Edited 12:28pm Apr 23, 2008 12:26pm | Edited 12:28pm
Trader79,
You are correct in your interpretation of Jacko's method. It is indeed meant for the mid to long term trend traders. The volatility over the last few months has required an adjustment to the stop size. Jacko was reluctant to post this to the thread for fear that the newer traders might not adjust their position size as well.

If you do increase your stop you should also make a corresponding reduction in your position size. Money management is the key to being in this business long term. Each trader must determine their own SL and position size. Fear, in my opinion, means you have too big a position for your SL. Trade Jacko's method in your comfort-zone and you will do just fine.

Archer
  • #3,248
  • Apr 23, 2008 12:52pm Apr 23, 2008 12:52pm
Quoting jacko
Apr 15, 2008 2:59pm

Be VERY careful...The ECB wants the Euro below where it is.

Don't stand still when the elephants start dancing.

//
I repeat :

Be VERY careful...The ECB wants the Euro below where it is !!!!!!

.
imho sound advice
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #3,249
  • Apr 23, 2008 1:14pm Apr 23, 2008 1:14pm
Hi Zoop...

Ok went long on the 50% Fib @ 5865 and still holding with +34 but it's having a hard time getting back through 5900.

Think I'll take my profit here and wait for the next one.

MG
  • #3,250
  • Apr 23, 2008 1:18pm Apr 23, 2008 1:18pm
Quoting Trumpcard
Seanchicago, what software are you using for the point and figure charts?
I do them manually in Excel. It is a way for me to gain a feel for the Euro movements while I trade the Yen.

-Sean
  • #3,251
  • Apr 23, 2008 1:26pm Apr 23, 2008 1:26pm
Quoting Matrixxdg
Hi Zoop...

Ok went long on the 50% Fib @ 5865 and still holding with +34 but it's having a hard time getting back through 5900.

Think I'll take my profit here and wait for the next one.

MG
I still have a feeling we're going to see 1.5800. If you look at how price is behaving around 1.5900, it seems very sluggish. It went up above 5900 briefly but then dropped. If there were big buy orders... we should be around 5950+ or something by now.
  • #3,252
  • Apr 23, 2008 1:42pm Apr 23, 2008 1:42pm
Quoting seanchicago
I agree. I think this is we will see 6100 (possibly 6300) before we see 5865 again. This is the gut feeling I'm getting after looking at my charts. But who knows.

-Sean
If I ever mention my "gut" again someone please remind me of the above.

Thanks,

-Sean
  • #3,253
  • Apr 23, 2008 1:51pm Apr 23, 2008 1:51pm
Price is hanging around the 1.5900 Maybe it will get support from here and take us back up.time will tell.
  • #3,254
  • Apr 23, 2008 1:51pm Apr 23, 2008 1:51pm
Quoting zoopy
This is something I think a lot of traders may be able to benefit from. It's something I did after first discovering Jacko's thread and have monitored it on various pairs.

I'm going to use euro as an example.
Mark off 1.6000 and 1.5900 and 1.5800 on your charts. You'll start to notice that when price struggles to go from say 1.6000 to 1.6100, it will drop to the next level down.

We are currently below 1.5900 which leads me to think we may be headed to 1.5800 (I could be wrong but more often than not it happens). If 1.5800 doesn't hold, we'll slip down to 1.5700 and so on. This will continue to happen until we find a solid footing.

Because of the above effect, I tend to avoid xx50 numbers or anything inbetween unless I have an AH orders in place.
I like the quote above enough to attach it to my post; so I can find it easily again in the future.

I do think it is funny how xx50 numbers have become "round numbers". By that logic xx10 is also "round". I think we all get a bit anxious to place a trade and play tricks on ourselves to justify the action.

Hopefully this quote and Zoopy's earlier one will be a reminder to us all (and I do mean me too).

Thank you Zoopy,

-Sean
  • #3,255
  • Apr 23, 2008 1:55pm Apr 23, 2008 1:55pm
Your post is an encourager, every trader must have a strtegy that works best for him. Even though I trade short term, I can see the reasons to believe you. Soonest my target is big trades and then I have no choice than to position trade.Thanks once again.
{Promotion Removed}
  • #3,256
  • Apr 23, 2008 2:02pm Apr 23, 2008 2:02pm
Quoting zoopy
I still have a feeling we're going to see 1.5800. If you look at how price is behaving around 1.5900, it seems very sluggish. It went up above 5900 briefly but then dropped. If there were big buy orders... we should be around 5950+ or something by now.
Emotionally, it may be easier to buy at 1.6000 than 1.5800, since we are dropping. But currently the 4 hour TL on my chart is ~ 1.5775. Making 1.5800 an excellent buy (if we reach it). You could use a 50 pip SL and feel pretty good that the only way you are going to be stopped out is if you are really wrong, and that's a good thing.

-Sean
  • #3,257
  • Apr 23, 2008 2:48pm Apr 23, 2008 2:48pm
Quoting Archer
Trader79,
You are correct in your interpretation of Jacko's method. It is indeed meant for the mid to long term trend traders. The volatility over the last few months has required an adjustment to the stop size. Jacko was reluctant to post this to the thread for fear that the newer traders might not adjust their position size as well.

If you do increase your stop you should also make a corresponding reduction in your position size. Money management is the key to being in this business long term. Each trader must determine their own SL and position size. Fear, in my opinion, means you have too big a position for your SL. Trade Jacko's method in your comfort-zone and you will do just fine.

Archer
Hello Archer, thanks for your response and clarifying this.

How big is the stop loss Jacko recommends at the moment?

What does Jacko thinks abot using an ATR adjusted SL all the time instead of using a fix SL?
  • #3,258
  • Apr 23, 2008 2:49pm Apr 23, 2008 2:49pm
Quoting seanchicago
I like the quote above enough to attach it to my post; so I can find it easily again in the future.

I do think it is funny how xx50 numbers have become "round numbers". By that logic xx10 is also "round". I think we all get a bit anxious to place a trade and play tricks on ourselves to justify the action.

Hopefully this quote and Zoopy's earlier one will be a reminder to us all (and I do mean me too).

Thank you Zoopy,

-Sean
Hi!

Yup, that's true, but I've seen Jacko (at DailyFX) buying at .xx25 also. I guess, in the end, it all comes down to experience, combined with other tools that Jacko uses.

Here is a 4h chart attached. Again, the 50% fib worked very nicely and the trendline did its job. In this case, 1.5865 would be a nice entry point.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4h.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #3,259
  • Apr 23, 2008 3:53pm Apr 23, 2008 3:53pm
My buy limit got picked up last night at 5865, I took profit at 5888 for a 23 pip profit. We have been seeing a pretty consistent fall on the latest 4h candle, Do you all think we will see 5800 soon? and if so why?
Live From Los Angeles
  • #3,260
  • Apr 23, 2008 4:09pm Apr 23, 2008 4:09pm
Quoting seanchicago
Emotionally, it may be easier to buy at 1.6000 than 1.5800, since we are dropping. But currently the 4 hour TL on my chart is ~ 1.5775. Making 1.5800 an excellent buy (if we reach it). You could use a 50 pip SL and feel pretty good that the only way you are going to be stopped out is if you are really wrong, and that's a good thing.

-Sean
I would agree with you if we were above 1.6000. I prefer buying lower because then there's a better chance of any AH orders being picked up. The other thing to keep in mind, it's safer to buy lower because then there's less likelihood of your stops being hit since the market is already so low.

Also, what you have pointed out is exactly why I prefer buying so low. If I'm wrong and the market drops further, it also gives me information I need. It tells me we may be in a bigger correction or maybe even a trend reversal. So in essence, I'm using trendlines/50.0% fib retracements/support levels as a guard rail to direct my trades.
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