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Daily Cable Analysis

  • #3,521
  • Jan 24, 2007 4:06am Jan 24, 2007 4:06am
Quoting Zarul Shahrin
I take the sudden spike as a good news that cable will be going up now . Anybody wants to bet?
Enjoy the pips!
I am just here to talk nonsense =D
  • #3,522
  • Jan 24, 2007 4:06am Jan 24, 2007 4:06am
Neural network calls for close @9838 today with range between 9847/9850 through 9770 for rest of week with possible breakout of range on friday with US news.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #3,523
  • Jan 24, 2007 4:07am Jan 24, 2007 4:07am
Quoting ashoksagar
Placing a short order at 50 before heading out.
The short netted me 40 pips, (I had SL and limit set).
  • #3,524
  • Jan 24, 2007 4:08am Jan 24, 2007 4:08am
Quoting rdrainey
This response may not help you much, but I gave up long ago trying to "make sense" out of the market's movements following news releases. I would say that 99% of the time, the price does exactly the opposite of what I think it should do based upon my understanding of the news. Instead of trying to figure it out, I just try to focus on what the price is actually doing.

sounds like you should just be doing opposite of what you think
Justkiddin
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #3,525
  • Jan 24, 2007 4:12am Jan 24, 2007 4:12am
Quoting Leugimp
sounds like you should just be doing opposite of what you think
Justkiddin

And who among us hasn't thought that thought at the beginning of our trading careers? "If I would just do the exact opposite of what I think I should do, then I would be a millionaire by now."
  • #3,526
  • Jan 24, 2007 4:14am Jan 24, 2007 4:14am
Quoting rdrainey
This response may not help you much, but I gave up long ago trying to "make sense" out of the market's movements following news releases. I would say that 99% of the time, the price does exactly the opposite of what I think it should do based upon my understanding of the news. Instead of trying to figure it out, I just try to focus on what the price is actually doing.
Totally agree with you!
I used long time ago to focus only on prices. I did not know even about the fundamentals. And I was managing to have 95% winning trades with 20 to 100 pips per trade.

Now that I know well about the news, I have much less winning trades!!!
  • #3,527
  • Jan 24, 2007 4:21am Jan 24, 2007 4:21am
Quoting haniam
Totally agree with you!
I used long time ago to focus only on prices. I did not know even about the fundamentals. And I was managing to have 95% winning trades with 20 to 100 pips per trade.

Now that I know well about the news, I have much less winning trades!!!
I did finally quit reading the news for a while and instead just noted on my calendar when the releases were due. That worked better for me than actually paying attention to what numbers were released. The numbers usually don't make any sense to me anyway. lol.
  • #3,528
  • Jan 24, 2007 4:23am Jan 24, 2007 4:23am
Quoting rdrainey
And who among us hasn't thought that thought at the beginning of our trading careers? "If I would just do the exact opposite of what I think I should do, then I would be a millionaire by now."
I actually attempted it one time - same result. The funny thing is that if you have a system that loses money real time and do the opposite, it will also lose money real time, otherwise it would be a winning system. What I mean by that is that most systems are around breakeven, leaving you with losing the spread little by little. If they were to lose too much, then whoever was doing the opposite would win. They need to break even, or averge in between 2-3 pips(less than the spread) win or loss per trade in order to get everyone to lose.

Thats why with some of my setups, I like to skip some setups or what are called ghost trades whenever I notice the equity curve on those setups hit extremes in terms of standard deviations, sometimes even looking for contradicting setups that are just as valid to fade the ones that are at equity high extremes in terms of standard deviations.

Off topic sorry - just a thought
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #3,529
  • Jan 24, 2007 4:26am Jan 24, 2007 4:26am
Once upon time, I was a very active trader who wants to know everything. As a result, I wiped out my account to almost $0 .Today I am no longer that much of an active trader as I no longer trade on 5 minutes chart but on daily chart and making profit everyday since then. So, from my experience:

1) Don't think too much about the logic behind the market, if you don't want to zero your account.
2) Trade on longer time frame.
3) Try to make atleast less than 5 trades per day.
4) Trade the currency that you feel comfortable.
5) Visit forex factory everyday.

I will gurantee that you will make a good profit if you follow the steps above.
I am just here to talk nonsense =D
  • #3,530
  • Jan 24, 2007 4:30am Jan 24, 2007 4:30am
ohya,

6) Read other peoples' analysis, but don't always trust them, this is the most important part...
I am just here to talk nonsense =D
  • #3,531
  • Jan 24, 2007 4:32am Jan 24, 2007 4:32am
so if i understand this correctly, the news drives the market, but in a general way with regards to how the economy is doing overall. the news releases don't do much except for maybe a quick spike on what the numbers are unless something really changes how the economy looks.

so what does this news mean??? the vote was not what was expected, but then the numbers show big inflation worries, so a rate increase is in the cards. so does a rate increase mean the pound will go up??? but long term, wouldn't that be bad as inflation gets worse??

then again, i guess we are all looking for the short term moves, so until the boe stops hiking rates, that is good for going long on gbp overall, with a few days of profit taking(retraces)?????

is that close???
  • #3,532
  • Jan 24, 2007 4:34am Jan 24, 2007 4:34am
Is the 4hr bar a candidate for pin-bar ? open 8:00 GMT (1.5hr to go)
  • #3,533
  • Jan 24, 2007 4:39am Jan 24, 2007 4:39am
Quoting mtrmth
so if i understand this correctly, the news drives the market, but in a general way with regards to how the economy is doing overall. the news releases don't do much except for maybe a quick spike on what the numbers are unless something really changes how the economy looks.

so what does this news mean??? the vote was not what was expected, but then the numbers show big inflation worries, so a rate increase is in the cards. so does a rate increase mean the pound will go up??? but long term, wouldn't that be bad as inflation gets worse??

then again, i guess we are all looking for the short term moves, so until the boe stops hiking rates, that is good for going long on gbp overall, with a few days of profit taking(retraces)?????

is that close???
From what I have learned regarding news releases, the market doesn't move based solely on THE number that is released. Instead, expectations are priced into the market well ahead of the actual release, sometimes resulting in NO movement if the released news matches what was expected. Then there are the revisions to previous releases to take into consideration. So even if the newly released number comes out very positive, if there are negative adjustments and revisions made to previous releases at the same time, the "market movers" take that into consideration. And then there is the while Elliott Wave and Fibonacci situation where sometimes the news doesn't seem to matter one way or the other because "the market" is hell-bent on fulfilling Wave patterns and/or Fibo retracements and extensions.

"Just my two cents."
  • #3,534
  • Jan 24, 2007 4:41am Jan 24, 2007 4:41am
well, i haven't trusted other peoples analysis, and i have missed a couple thousand pips in the last couple of months!!! some of these guys are right on. my problem is i do not understand all they are talking about so i do not feel comfortable with getting into the market, and then i watch the market go right where they say it will. once in awhile they are wrong, and i gues i do not want to be in when they are, it would make me more gun shy. i am a bit of a risk taker, but i got spanked bad once and i am still smarting from it, just working on my nerve right now. i am strating to understand the numbers, slowly but surely, but i also want to understand the mindset of what drives the market in a direction when both economies are doing well, why one currency goes up against the other, and sometimes how hypersensitive it can be to the news. that may be the difference in being 80% successful and 95%, at least in my opinion.
  • #3,535
  • Jan 24, 2007 4:46am Jan 24, 2007 4:46am
thanks leuigi, it is early, my brain is a little slow. i guess i shouldn't try to understand the market, it's mind is on drugs!!

i guess my question is for today, where is the market going??? what are the keys for the rest of the day??? are we going to hit the fibos of the last run up, have we hit them??
  • #3,536
  • Jan 24, 2007 4:55am Jan 24, 2007 4:55am
here is a pip of news release

first vertical line is start
second is bottom - less than 1 minute later - down 60 or so pips
3rd line - where price was 2 minutes later - up 30 pips

My take on this is that someone was buying at heavy @9700
Speculators comprise a large % of market movers during news time, however whenever you get a turn in news after that big and quick a selloff, it isn't speculators who are thinking ahead that will stop a move like that dead in its tracks - someone must think that GBP is a bargain at that price and had alot of orders ready at that level to scoop up liquidity provided by sellers. With many still holding on to their shorts, it wouldn't be a surprise for them to let them go just above 9800. Now some were long and dumped their longs, many went short and many more added on on news to shorts. Now once they let these shorts go by covering, they will be in the what the hell is going on mindframe. They will not enter again out of fear or perhaps they just wiped away a good portion of their account. for the remainder that hold on to their "long term" shorts with stop above high of yesterday, they will move their stops to above the high and once price penetrates that level, coupled with those that actually still have some equity to buy with, and they cover shorts as well, it's off to the 2.0000 level that we've been waiting for.

Im no market guru, but this is the way I see this playing out, although we may still have to shake off a few more weak longs before then.

This is a cruel game, I can only imagine how many peoples dreams have gone down the drain since yesterday.

As for now, a double bottom to give some shorts a glimmer of hope seems due but totally not necessary - A nice little range between now and friday should suffice.
Attached Image
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #3,537
  • Jan 24, 2007 5:02am Jan 24, 2007 5:02am
Quoting Leugimp
here is a pip of news release
correction pic of news release

I know - my grammar is miserable
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #3,538
  • Jan 24, 2007 5:05am Jan 24, 2007 5:05am
Here is the good thing and bad thing about my latest view.

Price can still retrace far in terms of weekly charts for signal to still be valid-although I am not of that opinion.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #3,539
  • Jan 24, 2007 5:11am Jan 24, 2007 5:11am
those "weak longs" may just hold on since we didn't blow thru 9700, i would.

so what do you think the range will be??? i hope we are not going to sit here at 9750 again for a week, i will get my gun and make the market move!!!!
  • #3,540
  • Jan 24, 2007 5:11am Jan 24, 2007 5:11am
Quoting Leugimp
Here is the good thing and bad thing about my latest view.

Price can still retrace far in terms of weekly charts for signal to still be valid-although I am not of that opinion.
Sorry, man, I got lost here... You're expecting back to the 9800s ? is that correct?

wow.. so many posts here....
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