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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #3,201
  • Apr 22, 2008 7:10pm Apr 22, 2008 7:10pm
Quoting Dabek FX
Lurker that finally made an account and had the courage to post.

Today was in at 5903 out by 5996.. I couldnt sit there for the 4 pips; took too long.. 93 pips can't complain.

Just looking for a good entry point for London market opening.
Did my idiotic posts encourage you? Congrats on the excellent trade.

-Sean
  • #3,202
  • Apr 22, 2008 7:42pm Apr 22, 2008 7:42pm
Hi All,
New to Jacko...not new to trading.

Oil 119.00 and 1.6018 on the E/U. I am looking for a retrace to 1.5950 area then.....??????

Thats where I am in a quandry. Input from anyone here!! Think it's going to blow through the all time high and keep going or is this the reversal we have all been looking for.

Not sure how to play the London open.... got a BUY Limit in at 1.5948 for it to go back up right now.....but do not have the warm and fuzzies about it.

Thoughts anyone?

Mike G
  • #3,203
  • Apr 22, 2008 8:22pm Apr 22, 2008 8:22pm
I try to take my trades off of the 4 hour chart. I'm looking for it to retrace back to around 1.5850 for an entry. I've attached a chart. (hope I did it right). just trying to be patient.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd4hrupdated.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #3,204
  • Apr 22, 2008 8:30pm Apr 22, 2008 8:30pm
Quoting Matrixxdg
Hi All,
New to Jacko...not new to trading.

Oil 119.00 and 1.6018 on the E/U. I am looking for a retrace to 1.5950 area then.....??????

Thats where I am in a quandry. Input from anyone here!! Think it's going to blow through the all time high and keep going or is this the reversal we have all been looking for.

Not sure how to play the London open.... got a BUY Limit in at 1.5948 for it to go back up right now.....but do not have the warm and fuzzies about it.

Thoughts anyone?

Mike G
I'm looking at 1.5800. Not sure if we'll get there though but you never know

Actually... I'm a little surprised we're not higher. I was thinking when 1.6000 gets taken out, momentum would pick up but apparently that's not the case. Makes me wonder if there's something hiding at 1.6050 that I should know about.
  • #3,205
  • Apr 22, 2008 8:32pm Apr 22, 2008 8:32pm
Quoting seanchicago
Did my idiotic posts encourage you? Congrats on the excellent trade.

-Sean
Thanks

I was actually in from the Japanese open, and gut anticipation for that 1.60 print today due to the hawkish talks by Trichet.

Quoting zoopy
I'm looking at 1.5800. Not sure if we'll get there though but you never know

Actually... I'm a little surprised we're not higher. I was thinking when 1.6000 gets taken out, momentum would pick up but apparently that's not the case. Makes me wonder if there's something hiding at 1.6050 that I should know about.
Im not sure how relevant this is, but AUD/USD right now is not spiking up as expected. Despite high inflation data it isn't jumping up.. this is probably due to the fact that RBA said they will try to keep AUD/USD from going over .95

My guess is that some fear that this same move could be made by the ECB; however, i have some doubts about ECB intervention due to hawkish talks by Trichet.

Overall I'm very curious to see what happens tomorrow during the London Session.
  • #3,206
  • Apr 22, 2008 8:32pm Apr 22, 2008 8:32pm
Quoting wahawk
I try to take my trades off of the 4 hour chart. I'm looking for it to retrace back to around 1.5850 for an entry. I've attached a chart. (hope I did it right). just trying to be patient.
I calculate the 50% fib as (1.6019 - 1.5711) / 2 + 1.5711 = 1.5865.

The 1.5711 being the recent low on the 4 hour chart.

Unless today was an exhaustion rally (which I don't think it was), getting in 1.5865 or even the round number of 1.5900 might be wise.

-Sean
  • #3,207
  • Apr 22, 2008 8:40pm Apr 22, 2008 8:40pm
Quoting seanchicago
I calculate the 50% fib as (1.6019 - 1.5711) / 2 + 1.5711 = 1.5865.

The 1.5711 being the recent low on the 4 hour chart.

Unless today was an exhaustion rally (which I don't think it was), getting in 1.5865 or even the round number of 1.5900 might be wise.

-Sean
Gut feel says I don't think we'll see 1.5865 this dip. I'm placing a buy at 1.5900.
Leonardo Follower
  • #3,208
  • Apr 22, 2008 8:41pm Apr 22, 2008 8:41pm
Quoting zoopy
I'm looking at 1.5800. Not sure if we'll get there though but you never know

Actually... I'm a little surprised we're not higher. I was thinking when 1.6000 gets taken out, momentum would pick up but apparently that's not the case. Makes me wonder if there's something hiding at 1.6050 that I should know about.
Thanks Zoop and everyone.... Ok.. I compromised and took a buy at the 4HR 50% mark.....1.5868.

Let's see what happens.

Mike G
  • #3,209
  • Apr 22, 2008 9:14pm Apr 22, 2008 9:14pm
Quoting shodd
Gut feel says I don't think we'll see 1.5865 this dip. I'm placing a buy at 1.5900.
I agree. I think this is we will see 6100 (possibly 6300) before we see 5865 again. This is the gut feeling I'm getting after looking at my charts. But who knows.

-Sean
  • #3,210
  • Apr 23, 2008 12:24am Apr 23, 2008 12:24am
For what it's worth there is price action continuation pattern on the 4HR. That 4HR BUOB (Bullish outside bar) was exactly what preceded the last break of 1.5000. Not that I think that the coincidence means anything, but, to me it indicates the likelihood of a continuation.

I would say that any trade in which you can get your stop beneath the low of that 4 HR bar might be a reasonable approach.

The market has been in a 30 pip range now for about 12 hours. Could this mean a strong move is coming?? maybe. And if I had to bet on which way I just have to look at my chart and realize that no matter what timeframe... price starts in the bottom corner and ends in the top corner.

If this is wrong we will always have the AH.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4hr.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #3,211
  • Apr 23, 2008 12:37am Apr 23, 2008 12:37am
I'm seeing this going down to 1.5850 or even 1.5800 before going over 1.6000

I expected market blow through 1.6000 hard but it didn't, closed my longs and waiting for retracement now.
I don't think we're gona have alot of buyers at that price...
  • #3,212
  • Apr 23, 2008 1:19am Apr 23, 2008 1:19am
Quoting kaunasny
I don't think we're gona have alot of buyers at that price...
Good point.http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #3,213
  • Apr 23, 2008 1:27am Apr 23, 2008 1:27am
Good Morning

If we do jump the gun and take a position now and it gets stopped out we can always pick it back up later - AH.

We could sail north from here today to say 6050 or above - total guess. An entry now at around 5970 would still yield 80 points.

This is my problem with uncharted territory like this. No real S or R zones established.

Some courageous sailors need to take the helm...

TP

[I will remind everyone I am a complete newbie before anyone thinks there is science in my ramblings.]
  • #3,214
  • Apr 23, 2008 1:57am Apr 23, 2008 1:57am
Price 1.5950 offers great support. If price wasn't so high I would be definetely a buyer there. Being a buyer there just offers too small R:R ratio. Since I don't think we're going to go alot over 1.6000 without bigger retracement.

Lets see what is goiing to take for market to break that level.

1.5800 is just out of range. I'm going to be looking to buy at 1.5850
  • #3,215
  • Apr 23, 2008 2:55am Apr 23, 2008 2:55am
Quoting kaunasny
Price 1.5950 offers great support. If price wasn't so high I would be definetely a buyer there. Being a buyer there just offers too small R:R ratio. Since I don't think we're going to go alot over 1.6000 without bigger retracement.

Lets see what is goiing to take for market to break that level.

1.5800 is just out of range. I'm going to be looking to buy at 1.5850
I agree again. Very good points kaunasny. Buying right now in my opinion is only scalping, not medium term Jacko style. I will pull my boat on the sand and wait for better waves.

Buy orders at 1.5850 and 1.5900, first with 50 SL and second with 100 SL.

What annoys me is that even if we dont see much momentum to the upside, there is not much down movement either, so it seems the bears and bulls are struggling right now to gain control over the last wall of the know world. Behind 1.6000 there is the unknown. My soldiers are tired, so they will wait for a breach in the wall to start the attack.
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #3,216
  • Apr 23, 2008 3:02am Apr 23, 2008 3:02am
I will admit to having opened a position at 5950 - easy now isnt it. But this is only minimum £/point. It is more for fun BUT I have found that if I am waiting for E/$ then I start looking elsewhere which leads to me thinking I should open positions elsewhere which then leads to a lack of focus and so on. So this is not a Jacko style trade it is more of an attention buyer. However I now have my stop at BE so I will be watching the pretty candle flashing around.

TP
  • #3,217
  • Edited 5:17am Apr 23, 2008 3:08am | Edited 5:17am
Quoting takeprofit
I will admit to having opened a position at 5950 - easy now isnt it. But this is only minimum £/point. It is more for fun BUT I have found that if I am waiting for E/$ then I start looking elsewhere which leads to me thinking I should open positions elsewhere which then leads to a lack of focus and so on. So this is not a Jacko style trade it is more of an attention buyer. However I now have my stop at BE so I will be watching the pretty candle flashing around.

TP

You must learn patience. Those arcade trades will slowly bleed you out.

BTW : AH will not always return your losses. The more you expose yourself to it. The less effective it will be in returning you your losses.
  • #3,218
  • Edited 8:15am Apr 23, 2008 8:00am | Edited 8:15am
Don't normally look at H4 until I get a sign from the Daily but right now the H4 has some meaningful TLs.
The cross of the 2 TLs and the 1.5884 support confirms a turn day today just as it did on 4/20.
Also telling us to expect another turn 7 bars from now (next cross) then another turn 29 bars from now (furthest cross)

Forgot to add that it also called and stopped the high on 4/22
Attached Image
  • #3,219
  • Apr 23, 2008 8:18am Apr 23, 2008 8:18am
I just went long @ 1.5900.
  • #3,220
  • Apr 23, 2008 8:21am Apr 23, 2008 8:21am
Seanchicago, what software are you using for the point and figure charts?
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