Anyone trade slower pairs? | Forex Factory

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Anyone trade slower pairs?

  • #1
  • First Post: Jan 23, 2007 1:29am Jan 23, 2007 1:29am
Howdy all,

In a few short months I'll be leaving my current life for several months. It got me thinking about investing into a currency to let ride for long periods of time since I won't be at a computer every day. Does anyone else here have any success letting a trade go for weeks/months?

Any suggestions for which currencies would work well? Do you ever trade against the interest if you're in a trade for weeks/months? Look forward to discussing slow, consistent growth.

I'll give an example. USD/THB, although an exotic I assume, has been in a downtrend for years. It also broke its low from 1998 after the massive rally in 1997. Although there are rallies for several weeks here and there, without throwing too much of your account at the trade you should be able to easily survive them. This pair is extremely slow in volatility and unfortunately the wide spread means you'll be in the red for a while although it has been picking up steam these last few weeks. I'm not sure what the interest is like on this pair, but if it favors the short I think it's a good play.

Anyone else out there tired of trying to predict the volatility of gbp/usd every week? Matt
  • #2
  • Jan 23, 2007 2:08am Jan 23, 2007 2:08am
I dont do it in particular, but have considered it. I wouldn't trade this way against carry interest, just an edge you may be giving up. Would look for long term technical setups in line with + carry interest.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #3
  • Jan 23, 2007 6:50pm Jan 23, 2007 6:50pm
I'm thinking of doing it. Slow growth pairs so long as I'm on the good side of interest. Anyone know where I can find a list of all currencies with their respective interest rates?

GFT has a list of rollover prices. They don't show the actual rates, instead they show you what price it changes to after the interest rollover. Confusing. Anyone know how I'd be able to compute from that since they show all the pairs?
  • #4
  • Jan 23, 2007 7:13pm Jan 23, 2007 7:13pm
try audusd
  • #5
  • Jan 23, 2007 7:32pm Jan 23, 2007 7:32pm
Whats the interest on that? If it were favoring the short I might take it. It's at a common resistance area that it has bounced off of several times since 1989. If we assume that a currency can not go up or down forever because countries won't allow their currencies to become to undervalued, then now would be a prime time to short AUD/USD imo.

But that needs confirmation. I'd rather see something like USD/THB which has been downtrending for several years. I'd like to see why it exploded back in 1997. Is it headed back to those levels? It's picking up southern steam.
  • #6
  • Jan 23, 2007 9:46pm Jan 23, 2007 9:46pm
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/...t-rates-table/

Another member on here sent me that link.

AUD is 6.25% and USD is 5.25%. So going short would be against the interest correct? You'd be selling the AUD to buy USD and therefore losing 1%.

It doesn't have Thailands interest rate. Can't tell if shorting THB is a good trade in terms of interest. I assume it wouldn't be considering the interest rates of Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, and Japan. Although the phillippines is pretty healthy. Not sure. Matt
  • #7
  • Jan 23, 2007 10:14pm Jan 23, 2007 10:14pm
Quoting permanentjaun
Whats the interest on that? If it were favoring the short I might take it. It's at a common resistance area that it has bounced off of several times since 1989. If we assume that a currency can not go up or down forever because countries won't allow their currencies to become to undervalued, then now would be a prime time to short AUD/USD imo.

But that needs confirmation. I'd rather see something like USD/THB which has been downtrending for several years. I'd like to see why it exploded back in 1997. Is it headed back to those levels? It's picking up southern steam.
Didn't someone post that NZ wants their dollar to drop. And JPY doesn't seem to mind.
Remember reading the kiwi dollar should go to 40 cents from I forget who. One of the NZ policy people. Tonight on CNBCW an analyst mentioned he sees ozzie/dollar at 70cents by end of year.

I look into it here and there, slower pairs. I'm hoping to find a good trend that's long term, 1h to daily and do a system with that. I guess NZD does just that with a lower spread than exotics.
If you get anywhere, let us know!
  • #8
  • Jan 23, 2007 10:43pm Jan 23, 2007 10:43pm
Hi

Interbank-Fx posts swap rates. I don't know if they are particular to IBfx as to value but well there you go. I know they change from time to time so I check their site often, here is the url to get there.

http://www.interbankfx.com/swap_rates.php

I position trade as well and what I can recomend is Check the long term trends, weeks and months also check the average true range and typical drawdown on the day chart and definately, DEFINATELY trade WITH the swap. you might check the ATR and MAX drawdown on the W1 & M1 as well just to make sure you have the margin to stay in for a long time.

In long term position trading remember.

"The Trend May Be Your Friend But The Swap is Your Lover"

Hope this helps

fxScavenger
fxScavenger Arrogance is just Ignorance misspelled. abso-PIPn-lutely
  • #9
  • Jan 23, 2007 10:43pm Jan 23, 2007 10:43pm
Isn't EUR/GBP the father of all slow pairs?
Tra-X
  • #10
  • Jan 23, 2007 11:32pm Jan 23, 2007 11:32pm
Quoting Traex
Isn't EUR/GBP the father of all slow pairs?
I wouldn't say eur/gbp is slow. Looking at a weekly chart shows plenty of volatility where the noise from week to week is about 100-300 pips.
  • #11
  • Jan 23, 2007 11:48pm Jan 23, 2007 11:48pm
Quoting fxScavenger
Hi

Interbank-Fx posts swap rates. I don't know if they are particular to IBfx as to value but well there you go. I know they change from time to time so I check their site often, here is the url to get there.

http://www.interbankfx.com/swap_rates.php

I position trade as well and what I can recomend is Check the long term trends, weeks and months also check the average true range and typical drawdown on the day chart and definately, DEFINATELY trade WITH the swap. you might check the ATR and MAX drawdown on the W1 & M1 as well just to make sure you have the margin to stay in for a long time.

In long term position trading remember.

"The Trend May Be Your Friend But The Swap is Your Lover"

Hope this helps

fxScavenger
Thanks for the link. That does help a lot. I wish they had more pairs listed.

Yes I intend on looking at minimum daily charts to trend trade. Not concern myself with losing 20-100 pips when I see I'm on a nice long trend.

Any recommendations on pairs since you mentioned you do position trade? I would jump on the gbp/jpy band wagon but it has hit the resistance level from 97'-98'. Would love to have joined in 2001. I think that would be my nest egg. Never sell. That would have been a pension. Although, looking at a monthly chart it's still relatively low compared to prices back in 76'.


Does ATR really matter if we're in it for the long haul?
  • #12
  • Jan 24, 2007 1:07am Jan 24, 2007 1:07am
Hi Permanentjaun,

I am interested in dollar peg currency in order to avoid exchange loss,
and to have received the stable swap income.
For examples, USDOMR,USDBHD and USDJOB...
Peace and Happiness through Prosperity (by Konosuke Matsushita)
  • #13
  • Jan 24, 2007 1:08am Jan 24, 2007 1:08am
Is this a slow pair?
Attached Image
Peace and Happiness through Prosperity (by Konosuke Matsushita)
  • #14
  • Jan 24, 2007 1:20am Jan 24, 2007 1:20am
Looks to me like a very slow pair. I'm not sure what the interest rates are like on the Dinar.

I'm not so sure if I know how to define slow though. I think slow to me would be a currency that is very delibrate in its direction. GBP/JPY, while having a great vast movements, has been very delibrate in it's uptrend over the last 5-7 years. GBP/USD, while you could make a case for the same 5-7 year uptrend, has still experienced many heavy reversals. I'm probably not explaining myself well. I hope you can see what I'm talking about when comparing a gbp/jpy chart to a gbp/usd chart. Matt
  • #15
  • Jan 24, 2007 1:26am Jan 24, 2007 1:26am
So it just dropped 200 points.....any suggestions?
  • #16
  • Jan 24, 2007 1:33am Jan 24, 2007 1:33am
Quoting Pipkingdom
So it just dropped 200 points.....any suggestions?
Ha just saw that. I felt like that was coming soon. Whats your opinion though? Is this pair too interest attractive to drop very far? It seems to rally just as quick as it drops.
  • #17
  • Jan 24, 2007 2:11am Jan 24, 2007 2:11am
Quoting Pipkingdom
So it just dropped 200 points.....any suggestions?
Yeh, get ready to long.
Edit: The only thing I'm concerned about is the fact GBP/JPY formed a top around this price back in 1998.
  • #18
  • Jan 24, 2007 2:18am Jan 24, 2007 2:18am
Quoting bodge
Yeh, get ready to long.
Edit: The only thing I'm concerned about is the fact GBP/JPY formed a top around this price back in 1998.

Has me worried too. Dropped 300 pips now.
  • #19
  • Jan 24, 2007 2:40am Jan 24, 2007 2:40am
238.00 seems to be providing good support for now, Im not giving up on the bulls yet.
  • #20
  • Jan 24, 2007 2:42am Jan 24, 2007 2:42am
permanentjaun, keep in mind that only the other week GBP/JPY dropped 800 or so pips in a few days.
I know this move seems to have a lot more force behind it, but I guess we will see where things go. I'm holding a couple of long term positions, this hasn't worried me in the slightest.
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