Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

I think we go back to below 204, but it depends on how the market reacts to BofA. One guy already claimed there's nothing to see here, so we could again test 12,8k

I think the news on BOE is also weighting on cable, I missed that before..

Nothing to see here, move along

http://www.searchviews.com/images/chief-wiggum.gif

I have a sneaking suspicion we're headed back to 208 today on GJ.

Suspicion ehhh??

Here is what my indicator says

http://getsustainable.net/blogfiles/...mer-768568.jpg

Well we tested the 50% fibo and bounced, along with Bullshit sentiment on Wall St. however the Wall St guys could run out of coke at any moment and decide that old bad news is bad news.

Euro and cable completely dettached. Dow -80, bye bye 12.8k (maybe tomorrow? )

Holiday in Brazil today, but not a sunny day here. I think I'll dedicate the holidays to lazyness really...

GJ headed down, cesar as is UJ

Yes, but GU is also falling while EU is going up.

GJ is being hit by UJ (via stocks) and something that hit GU (I think, last news from BOE). Total damage:400 pips.

looks like gbpusd broke out of a wedge friday and might be completing a head and shoulder after the wedge momentum dissipates.

meanwhile the eurgbp sneaked out of a wedge as well friday and is now testing 0,8 again, will it fail?

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/...ogoprinter.gif http://graphics8.nytimes.com/adx/ima...rt_88x31_8.gif

April 21, 2008

Bank of England Outlines Its Bailout Plan

By DAVID JOLLY and CARTER DOUGHERTY
PARIS — The Bank of England said on Monday that it would allow banks to swap mortgage-backed securities valued at about $100 billion for government bonds in an effort to restore calm to the British financial markets.
Under the plan, banks will deposit the securities, which have become difficult to sell since the credit markets began to tighten in August, in the central bank as collateral but at a discount. In return, they will receive easily tradable government bonds, which the Bank of England hopes will be used to expand lending, in particular among banks themselves.
“The Bank of England’s Special Liquidity Scheme is designed to improve the liquidity position of the banking system and raise confidence in financial markets while ensuring that the risk of losses on the loans they have made remains with the banks,” the central bank governor, Mervyn King, said in a statement.
Banks themselves will have to bear the loss if the securities on deposit decline in value, the central bank said. But Mr. King also said there was no “arbitrary limit” on how much could be lent under the plan, though discussions with banks suggested they would need about £50 billion, or $100 billion. “It may well go higher,” he said.
Alistair Darling, the chancellor of the Exchequer, said earlier that such a plan was necessary because the freezing up of credit markets represented “an unprecedented shock to the system.”
“We haven’t seen this in generations,” he said on BBC television. “It’s happening in America, Europe, the Far East. It is affecting countries all over the world. We’re determined to do everything we can to get normality here.”
The central bank said the asset swaps would be for one year and could be renewed for up to three years. The swaps are available only for assets existing at the end of 2007 and cannot be used to finance new lending.
Analysts seemed skeptical that the move would ease lending conditions significantly, though they agreed that it was a shot in the arm for banks.
Many British banks have announced plans to reduce exposure to real estate lending, and with prices falling, few are inclined to rethink those intentions, analysts said. The experience of the United States, where similar measures have failed to spark much new lending, is also cautionary.
“We could well end up with a similar situation as the United States,” an economist with ING in London, James Knightley, said. “It’s one way to boost confidence and help banks lend, but the impact on the real economy may be quite minimal.”
The Federal Reserve in Washington said last month that it would swap up to $200 billion of government bonds for mortgage-backed securities.
Still, an official of the International Monetary Fund said that the British situation was not nearly as dire as that in the United States, where a wave of housing foreclosures has delivered a broad shock to lenders.
British home prices are falling, but the extent of the damage is far less than in the United States.
“You’re in a different world” in Britain, Michael Deppler, head of the I.M.F.’s European division, said.
Mr. Deppler made the comment as part of an assessment that painted a pessimistic outlook for economic growth in all of Europe. The mixture of higher oil and food prices, the strong euro, recessionary conditions in the United States and financial market turmoil will bring growth in Western Europe down to 1.4 percent this year from 2.8 percent in 2007, he predicted.
The I.M.F. also quantified the losses from financial market chaos — a mix of tighter borrowing costs and falling stock and housing prices — at about 0.75 percent of Europe’s total output.
All in all, Europe will enjoy “resiliency but not immunity” from what is going on, Mr. Deppler said.
Still, the British economy remains one of the hardest-hit in Europe, and Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s government, facing difficult local elections in May, has been under pressure to shore up the financial system and restart the mortgage lending market. Mr. Brown met Friday in Washington with several financial officials, including Ben S. Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve.
Despite three interest rate cuts that have taken the Bank of England’s benchmark rate to 5 percent, the three-month London interbank sterling rate, a reference rate for loans between banks, was at nearly 5.9 percent Monday, down slightly from Friday, but still a level that indicates banks remain nervous about their peers.
Most analysts still expect that weakening growth will lead the Bank of England to cut interest rates further, but even if financial market turbulence tapers off.
David Jolly reported from Paris and Carter Dougherty from Frankfurt.

On Oil

http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/upload/n...ce%20Surge.jpg

http://skeptically.org/sitebuilderco...ctures/oil.jpg


http://www.cartoonstock.com/newscart...s/dbrn204l.jpg

http://www.inkcinct.com.au/Web/CARTO...trol-price.jpg

Looks like 12.8K is still holding............

HOLLA

Just wanted to step in here to say that I think this is a great thread. No one sems to take themselves too seriously.

Thanks for all the keen market insight and humor.

A late congrats to cesar on your 10k posts and a special thanks for the great eye candy! Keep it cummin'.

Borrowed this from The Big Picture blogspot last week...

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1208816350

Position of the USD to the EURO...




M

I think this is the picture you were trying to post:

http://i276.photobucket.com/albums/k...k_cherry_2.png

Looks like I missed the cesar 10K party. I just hope you made some seriously decent dough of all those posts, man

Also, the dollar looks like it got a little hurt about your claims about it's social life. It may have been around the block, but it's straightening up and going up the community ladder, from the look of things. Notice the resistance at ~1.5940.. I think we might even move a whole 100 pips down this time before continuing the abuse!

Lagarde Says G-7's Dollar Shift on Par With 1985 Pact

bloomberg

http://img232.imageshack.us/img232/5...apture1gc6.png

this was on the last page of the comedy club. worth a visit