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  • #381
  • Apr 16, 2008 4:43am Apr 16, 2008 4:43am
1.5950

CPI y/y just came out at 3.6%, which is .1% higher than forecast. Is this going to push it through 1.6 fundamentally (don't know much about fundies so just throwing it out there).

Appears my previous post spurred the E/U to new heights. I should start my own tipping thread and everyone does exactly the opposite to what I tip, you'll make a fortune....

K8
  • #382
  • Apr 16, 2008 8:08am Apr 16, 2008 8:08am
Quoting Khornate8
Hey Zoopy and all,

hope you have been successful in this market. I am personally staying out for the moment.

Of interest to me is the last 3 major round numbers, being 1.3000, 1.4000 and 1.5000 the market has either retraced by around 500 pips and then made a run through the level for the first time strongly (1.300 and 1.5000) or has simply just run straight through the level (1.4000 - went straight through and then used as a support). This time the market appears to be acting again like it was before it went through 1.5 and 1.3. Therefore I am of the belief it may do this again, that is, retreat around 500 pips (1.5400 or so) and then make a run straight through 1.6000.

As I write this it is again testing 1.5900. Will have to see how right or wrong I am. I'm not going to Counter Trend again and am not going to buy near the current high. I will enter long either at a retracement once it has punched through 1.6000 or wait for 1.5400 or so to be retraced to and then ride it up again.

just my 2 cents worth.

K8

1.5928 - new high
Yes this week was a winner but I'm taking the rest of the week off. I was talking to another trader in the group a few days ago and said I forecast euro to hit between 1.6000-1.6100 by end of this week. I'm curious to see whether that plays out or not.

The reason for the above analysis is because I was watching the way the euro was moving. If it truely wanted to drop it should have done so in a short period of time. I guess you can call it trader's fear. Generally when there's a drop, it happens very fast and it's an aggressive move (imagine everyone just heading for the doors). Moves up on the other hand tend to be more gradual and progressive in nature.A good example of this is to look at the gbpjpy daily, weekly or monthly (you can really see it on the monthly).
  • #383
  • Apr 16, 2008 8:09am Apr 16, 2008 8:09am
Quoting Khornate8
1.5950

CPI y/y just came out at 3.6%, which is .1% higher than forecast. Is this going to push it through 1.6 fundamentally (don't know much about fundies so just throwing it out there).

Appears my previous post spurred the E/U to new heights. I should start my own tipping thread and everyone does exactly the opposite to what I tip, you'll make a fortune....

K8
So what you're saying is... use you like the Bernanke indicator? :
  • #384
  • Apr 16, 2008 4:47pm Apr 16, 2008 4:47pm
Quoting zoopy
So what you're saying is... use you like the Bernanke indicator? :
Maybe I am actually channeling Bernanke or I may very well be Bernanke and using this thread to change the course of the E/U. But everytime I throw up a recommendation the price goes in the opposite direction that I want. Hey, maybe I am Bernanke....

On a serious note over here in Oz our inflation has busted out of the 2 - 3% y/y zone and the RBA is continually hitting us with rate rises. I don't know what the target is for the ECB but if it is below 3.6% y/y then maybe what is now being spoken about will come to fruition - higher interest rates = higher E/U. Considering there was talk only recently about the ECB possibly dropping rates to slow down the E/U I guess they're going to have to pick the least of the 2 evils. If they take the option of rate rises and the US keeps dropping rates then who knows how high the E/U will go. (As I said previously I have very little knowledge of fundamentals so I am probably missing things).

K8
  • #385
  • Apr 16, 2008 6:49pm Apr 16, 2008 6:49pm
Quoting Khornate8
Maybe I am actually channeling Bernanke or I may very well be Bernanke and using this thread to change the course of the E/U. But everytime I throw up a recommendation the price goes in the opposite direction that I want. Hey, maybe I am Bernanke....

Considering there was talk only recently about the ECB possibly dropping rates to slow down the E/U

K8
Maybe you should start a signalling service. Might be praised as being the best signalling service out there

I don't know too much about fundamentals either but I've actually heard quite the opposite. I've heard that they're thinking of raising rates further to fight inflation.

If this is all true and aussie continues as well, we might see the rise of the carry traders again. Actually... it's already happening.
  • #386
  • Apr 16, 2008 7:00pm Apr 16, 2008 7:00pm
Here is a eurusd 1 hour chart showing a possible scenario in the hours to come. It's very possible we may see a decline in the eurusd to test the 1 hour trendline it broke earlier this morning. If this is the case, the euro could drop to around 1.5850 before continuing higher and breaking the 1.6000 barrier.

Another area to keep an eye out for is 1.5900 again. What I have noticed in the past is that when the daily bar closes (mine closes in about 2 minutes), the new daily bar retraces to the closest round number first before continuing.

An example would be...
If the daily price closes at around 1.5950, there may be a retracement to 1.5900

OR

If price were to close at 1.5890, it may drag down to 1.5850 before going up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_1hour_trendline.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #387
  • Apr 16, 2008 9:07pm Apr 16, 2008 9:07pm
Quoting zoopy

I don't know too much about fundamentals either but I've actually heard quite the opposite.
Not the opposite at all. I think we are in agreeance. Raise rates to fight inflation. But raise rates leads to a rise in the Euro against other currencies, eg EURUSD keeps going up.

Have to wait and see. But hopefully this will be the case for us personally as it means we can continue to trade with the major trend.

Interestingly though my tip a few posts ago (I don't know how to put multiple quotes in the one post) hasn't been disproven yet. price hasn't pushed through 1.6000 so maybe we will see the 500 pip retracement before the push on through 1.6000.

K8
  • #388
  • Apr 16, 2008 11:21pm Apr 16, 2008 11:21pm
Quoting Khornate8
Interestingly though my tip a few posts ago (I don't know how to put multiple quotes in the one post) hasn't been disproven yet. price hasn't pushed through 1.6000 so maybe we will see the 500 pip retracement before the push on through 1.6000.

K8
Right now I'm wondering whether there will be a retracement at all. I was looking for a much deeper retracement around 1.5900 down to at least 1.5400 or around there. If we break 1.6000 without much of a fight, we could very well see 1.6500 in a short span.

I'm also seeing a lot of similarities with a eurgbp chart I posted on the first page of my journal. I "thought" it was going to range or have an extreme pullback of some sort but instead it went higher... wayyyy higher. Boy was I wrong. Just goes to show, everyone could have an opinion on where they think the market should go but in the end it's the big players that will dictate the price. When they do that, just drop what you're doing and follow. You don't have to figure anything out since they're doing it right in front of you.
  • #389
  • Apr 17, 2008 7:27am Apr 17, 2008 7:27am
Quoting zoopy
Here is a eurusd 1 hour chart showing a possible scenario in the hours to come. It's very possible we may see a decline in the eurusd to test the 1 hour trendline it broke earlier this morning. If this is the case, the euro could drop to around 1.5850 before continuing higher and breaking the 1.6000 barrier.
Here is a follow up chart that I just took of the eurusd 1 hour. Price did hit 1.5850 and I believe this next move is going to be the one that will break the 1.6000 barrier. Lets see how this plays out
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_1hour_result.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #390
  • Apr 17, 2008 7:54am Apr 17, 2008 7:54am
Although this is the eurchf monthly chart, here is another example of how price often retests the trendline it has broken. Same concept, different timeframe.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchf_monthly.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #391
  • Apr 17, 2008 11:09am Apr 17, 2008 11:09am
Quoting zoopy
What is also interesting to note is that there are three peaks (one is very well defined) at the top around 1.5822. This tells me we could see 1.5800/1.5850 act as a future support should price head up higher.
Was going through my journal and remembered posting this a few days ago after we had experienced that big gap. This also coincides with my 1 hour analysis on the trendline break. Goes to show how powerful the line chart tool is when determining support/resistance levels.
  • #392
  • Apr 18, 2008 12:05pm Apr 18, 2008 12:05pm
Quoting zoopy
...I was talking to another trader in the group a few days ago and said I forecast euro to hit between 1.6000-1.6100 by end of this week. I'm curious to see whether that plays out or not.

The reason for the above analysis is because I was watching the way the euro was moving. If it truely wanted to drop it should have done so in a short period of time. I guess you can call it trader's fear. Generally when there's a drop, it happens very fast and it's an aggressive move (imagine everyone just heading for the doors). Moves up on the other hand tend to be more gradual and progressive in nature.A good example of this is to look at the gbpjpy daily, weekly or monthly (you can really see it on the monthly).
Well... looking back at this post I was OBVIOUSLY wrong. What just happened overnight and this morning was the "very fast and aggressive move" I have detailed in the blue quote above (also see post#382).

Because of the move that just happened, price is telling me a few things. It's definitely a sign that traders are bailing out judging by the move (I wasn't at home to see this happen but price is telling me this). Keep in mind also visually it seems high and that may have played a part in the trader's psychology.

At this point, my outlook is now more of a defensive stand. I won't be using the 50.0% fib retracement tool since I find that's too aggressive at this point. Instead I'll be resorting to the line chart. I have included a daily chart showing areas I will be watching to go long at. Right now I have 1.5400 on my radar and if that doesn't hold (which may very well be the case), I will be looking further down at 1.4850/1.4900.

So... short term to possibly medium term I'm getting the impression we're going to be more bearish (I could be wrong but this is what price is telling me currently). For those that are wondering why I'm slightly biased to a downward trend in the short term, it's because price dropped in an aggressive manner. I only consider "down" when it actually happens or shows signs. Trade what you see not what you think may happen.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_daily_apr18.gif Size: 9 KB
  • #393
  • Apr 18, 2008 12:13pm Apr 18, 2008 12:13pm
I have included two more charts of the eurgbp pair. Whether this will show signs too I'm not sure but for this pair we had a dbhlc on the daily and the weekly chart shows a possible beob. To me this is telling me the euro is starting to show signs of weakness. Also keep in mind how steep the angle of this rise is without any major correction. It's definitely due and price is starting to hint at it. Whether it follows through is another story.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp_daily_apr18.gif Size: 9 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp_weekly_apr18.gif Size: 10 KB
  • #394
  • Apr 20, 2008 8:56am Apr 20, 2008 8:56am
I decided to take a fresher look at my charts after the weekend, more specifically the 4 hour. As you may recall, last Friday the euro took a nosedive down and created this huge dbhlc PA setup. Now... when I see those setups especially near the top of a move, it usually leads to a move lower. However, keep in mind we are going against the major trend so it could also be a trap lol.

I decided to draw trendlines on my 4 hour chart and noticed price broke straight through one of the trendlines. To confirm that we are in fact headed lower, price will most likely travel up to where the trendline broke, retest it and then drop further (that is of course if price is headed further down). I have included charts showing the trendline placement and the 50.0% fib retracement just to give me an idea of the areas to look out for (1.5850/1.5900). I will only consider long trades if both of those areas are taken out otherwise if we're headed lower I will be watching the 1.5400 area as stated in a previous post.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_4hour_break.gif Size: 13 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_4hour_50.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #395
  • Apr 20, 2008 9:03am Apr 20, 2008 9:03am
Although this isn't the eurusd, the swissy is a mirror image of the euro. On the weekly chart this too is showing signs of a move up (meaning USD strength) since it broke the IB to the upside (again, keep in mind this is against the major trend).

So... to conclude, we definitely have "signs" of a possible move down on euro. Whether the market decides this in the end is another story.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf_weekly_ib.gif Size: 10 KB
  • #396
  • Apr 21, 2008 8:22am Apr 21, 2008 8:22am
Quoting zoopy
I decided to draw trendlines on my 4 hour chart and noticed price broke straight through one of the trendlines. To confirm that we are in fact headed lower, price will most likely travel up to where the trendline broke, retest it and then drop further (that is of course if price is headed further down). I have included charts showing the trendline placement and the 50.0% fib retracement just to give me an idea of the areas to look out for (1.5850/1.5900). I will only consider long trades if both of those areas are taken out otherwise if we're headed lower I will be watching the 1.5400 area as stated in a previous post.
Here's a follow up chart on post#394. I woke up this morning to find price testing the trendline it broke. What's going to be interesting now is whether it will drop or not. Price seems very strong still so this may not happen OR... we may get a 4 hour pinbar or maybe even a beob.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_4hour_retest.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #397
  • Apr 21, 2008 11:06am Apr 21, 2008 11:06am
Quoting zoopy
Here's a follow up chart on post#394. I woke up this morning to find price testing the trendline it broke. What's going to be interesting now is whether it will drop or not. Price seems very strong still so this may not happen OR... we may get a 4 hour pinbar or maybe even a beob.
Well, well, lookie, lookie lol. We have a 4 hour pinbar off the trendline. I believe based on what I'm seeing now that we're going to be headed lower in the coming days. As to where... we're probably looking at around 1.5400, maybe even lower (watch out for 1.5700 as this is near the bottom of the last dip and when this gives way, we'll most likely make another plunge).

All the above may happen OR the market may decide it wants to break 1.6000 so it'll go ahead and do it anyways
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_4hour_pinbar.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #398
  • Apr 21, 2008 11:12am Apr 21, 2008 11:12am
Quoting zoopy
Well, well, lookie, lookie lol. We have a 4 hour pinbar off the trendline. I believe based on what I'm seeing now that we're going to be headed lower in the coming days. As to where... we're probably looking at around 1.5400, maybe even lower (watch out for 1.5700 as this is near the bottom of the last dip and when this gives way, we'll most likely make another plunge).

All the above may happen OR the market may decide it wants to break 1.6000 so it'll go ahead and do it anyways
I'm in sh since 1.5909... Let's see if oil will help...
  • #399
  • Apr 21, 2008 1:27pm Apr 21, 2008 1:27pm
Quoting raczekfx
I'm in sh since 1.5909... Let's see if oil will help...
Something tells me that pinbar is going to fail JUST because I mentioned it lol. What I also noticed is that all three indices are down and yen crosspairs are dropping sooo if market is going to crash, that might be the reason for the euro going up.
  • #400
  • Apr 21, 2008 1:48pm Apr 21, 2008 1:48pm
Quoting zoopy
Something tells me that pinbar is going to fail JUST because I mentioned it lol. What I also noticed is that all three indices are down and yen crosspairs are dropping sooo if market is going to crash, that might be the reason for the euro going up.
It could be. I still think, euro is moving higher because of oil at the moment. If we get sell off in oil futures, fiber should drop quickly... . All that talk from euro official about inflationary pressures in europe is .... a smoke and a cover up for things about to happen....(imho)
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