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Help needed in OANDA + users from Malaysia 105 replies

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Malaysia

  • #10,901
  • Apr 21, 2008 12:33am Apr 21, 2008 12:33am
Quoting scyang
Hi Malaysia,

Retracement in which direction are you talking about? Are you considering the USD weakening as a retracement?
Aren't USD strengthening across the boards last Thursday and Friday? Except against Pound Sterling which was also strengthening against all majors.

Whenever I see something go in one direction and halted then come back... I consider that as a RETRACEMENT. On all Time Frame. Of course concentrating on Higher time frame to neglect the "NOISE". I use Fibbo on lower time frame for Entry/Exit level especially while scalping.

Not to forget the PIVOT point also.
  • #10,902
  • Apr 21, 2008 12:36am Apr 21, 2008 12:36am
I dont think you can take it as strengthening, it is just a minor correction before we see the USD decline further and eur/usd making an attempt higher.
  • #10,903
  • Apr 21, 2008 12:43am Apr 21, 2008 12:43am
Malaysia,

In the larger time frame, USD has been in a declining trend. So I would tend to think that its strengthening across the boards last Friday is more like a retracement. But then I don't know anything. What do you think?
Expected the unexpected
  • #10,904
  • Apr 21, 2008 12:43am Apr 21, 2008 12:43am
Good day everyone!

Is a wild guess where usd might headed to this week. Uk is fundamental is getting weaker.

Happy trading!
  • #10,905
  • Apr 21, 2008 12:44am Apr 21, 2008 12:44am
Quoting vijayshantid
I dont think you can take it as strengthening, it is just a minor correction before we see the USD decline further and eur/usd making an attempt higher.
Duh! Call it whatever you want... but that looked STRENGTHENING to me. Even though it was short lived... but the GREENBACK was definitely strengthening last Friday... and It was a MAJOR correction if you look at INTRADAY point of view.
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  • #10,906
  • Apr 21, 2008 12:47am Apr 21, 2008 12:47am
You can say if the USD is strengthening if you see there is a bottom formed on the USD index chart and right there are no signs of reversal, so too early to call for USD strength
  • #10,907
  • Apr 21, 2008 12:47am Apr 21, 2008 12:47am
Quoting scyang
Malaysia,

In the larger time frame, USD has been in a declining trend. So I would tend to think that its strengthening across the boards last Friday is more like a retracement. But then I don't know anything. What do you think?
Simple... like I said... I am an INTRADAY trader. Once a while I look at Good Entry point for Long Term Trading. My view mostly affected by daily activity.
  • #10,908
  • Apr 21, 2008 12:48am Apr 21, 2008 12:48am
Quoting vijayshantid
You can say if the USD is strengthening if you see there is a bottom formed on the USD index chart and right there are no signs of reversal, so too early to call for USD strength
Did I ever called for USD Strength? I called for POUND STERLING deterioration. Read my weekly analysis on the weekends.
  • #10,909
  • Apr 21, 2008 12:48am Apr 21, 2008 12:48am
I paid attention to usdchf and usdjpy pairs last Friday, and they really strengthened a lot. But the currency strategists are saying the reason why they did so was because these two pairs are related to risk appetite. When the US stock market goes up, risk appetite improves. People would borrow jpy and chf, which have very low interest rate, to buy higher yields instruments. If you remember last two month's German ifo report coming out better than expected, pushing up euro, the analysts also predicted that this week's German ifo report will not be as good as the last two months, sending euro downwards. These fundamentals are complicating things a lot. Or you think we should just stay with the charts and forget everything else?
Expected the unexpected
  • #10,910
  • Apr 21, 2008 12:55am Apr 21, 2008 12:55am
Quoting scyang
I paid attention to usdchf and usdjpy pairs last Friday, and they really strengthened a lot. But the currency strategists are saying the reason why they did so was because these two pairs are related to risk appetite. When the US stock market goes up, risk appetite improves. People would borrow jpy and chf, which have very low interest rate, to buy higher yields instruments. If you remember last two month's German ifo report coming out better than expected, pushing up euro, the analysts also predicted that this week's German ifo report will not be as good as the last two months, sending euro downwards. These fundamentals are complicating things a lot. Or you think we should just stay with the charts and forget everything else?
It's always important to acknowledge fundamentals, but as to how much this affects your trading, it's an individual's choice.
  • #10,911
  • Apr 21, 2008 12:56am Apr 21, 2008 12:56am
Why you guys against me when I use the words STRENGTHENING on the Greenback Many analyst used it. It can be short lived or whatever... I just give comment on my view on many many charts switch on infront of me.
Quote
USD Can't Hold Onto Gains (9 Technical Analysis Videos)
by S. Wade Hansen

The U.S. dollar (USD) gained strength during the Asian and European trading sessions this morning, but it then started giving back gains during the U.S. trading session. You can see just how dramatic the pullback was by looking at this chart of the U.S. Dollar Index.

http://www.pfxglobal.com/images/Wade/dollar_index.png

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=82410
  • #10,912
  • Apr 21, 2008 12:57am Apr 21, 2008 12:57am
Cable meaning gbp/usd, between the 2 currency, USD is falling at a faster rate than GBP, one reason being the difference in interest rate, so that being said, I dont see how cable can deteriorate, so I still think the target 2.04 is quite valid
  • #10,913
  • Apr 21, 2008 1:05am Apr 21, 2008 1:05am
Quoting vijayshantid
Cable meaning gbp/usd, between the 2 currency, USD is falling at a faster rate than GBP, one reason being the difference in interest rate, so that being said, I dont see how cable can deteriorate, so I still think the target 2.04 is quite valid
Did I ever said your target is INVALID? I prepared for both possibilities. The Pound Sterling can deteriorate at a greater rate too.

Quoting Malaysia
Target Resistances IF break 2.0000 Psychological Resistance. If hardly pass beyond 2.0000.... I see 1.93xx coming soon.

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  • #10,914
  • Apr 21, 2008 1:08am Apr 21, 2008 1:08am
Hey, cool pal, I never said you dont agree, I am saying thats my target.
  • #10,915
  • Apr 21, 2008 1:11am Apr 21, 2008 1:11am
Quoting Malaysia
Why you guys against me when I use the words STRENGTHENING on the Greenback Many analyst used it. It can be short lived or whatever... I just give comment on my view on many many charts switch on infront of me.
I, for one, am not against you when you say USD strengthening. I have tried to bet many times that it would finally strengthen since it has gone down so much. But I have been disappointed too many times - USD is just like a wet noodle and can't get propped up. So last Friday when it showed some signed of gaining, I was very suspicious as to how long it will live or if it's just taking a break on its way down.
Expected the unexpected
  • #10,916
  • Apr 21, 2008 1:14am Apr 21, 2008 1:14am
Maybe long usd/jpy at present level may be good and initial target would be 104.60/50 or longer 107
  • #10,917
  • Apr 21, 2008 1:19am Apr 21, 2008 1:19am
Quoting vijayshantid
Hey, cool pal, I never said you dont agree, I am saying thats my target.
Before it goes UP... I am harvesting the RETRACEMENT first Will take out profit manually depending on PRICE ACTION. Anyhow... SL already on the Green. Nothing to lose. IF suddenly ... 100% Fibbo is breached ... REVERSAL could occur targeting 161.8% Fibbo Extension for today.
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  • #10,918
  • Apr 21, 2008 1:22am Apr 21, 2008 1:22am
Quoting scyang
I, for one, am not against you when you say USD strengthening. I have tried to bet many times that it would finally strengthen since it has gone down so much. But I have been disappointed too many times - USD is just like a wet noodle and can't get propped up. So last Friday when it showed some signed of gaining, I was very suspicious as to how long it will live or if it's just taking a break on its way down.
I would wait until Q2 end up or until early next year to see USD making a BIG REVERSAL and strengthened. Subjected to Fundamental improvement in the USA. Don't border to catch the Bottom/Top. Really tricky. Catch the next train... safer.
  • #10,919
  • Apr 21, 2008 1:22am Apr 21, 2008 1:22am
Geppy still ranging....Seems UJ is heading up but EJ still trapped like geppy....
  • #10,920
  • Apr 21, 2008 1:23am Apr 21, 2008 1:23am
US dollar sentiment remains weak and I continue to expect another try to take out the 1.6000 level this week..

EUR/USD’s upside however could be jeopardy if we see a break below trendline support at 1.5620/30.

As of now..perhaps is in consolidation period..
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