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Weekly 80/20 Setups

  • #81
  • Apr 18, 2008 2:58pm Apr 18, 2008 2:58pm
Quoting Flyjetz
I like your logic here as well. My system was set up to draw a projected candle based off previous price action (trend). How you choose to slice and dice that projected candle is up to you. I chose 80/20 as a safe margin to cut a 60% chunk of the projected candle. However, one of my cardinal rules is to place trades ONLY in the direction of the trend. To employ your system, I'd have to break that rule. That's just not my style of trading. I hope it works for you though.
Now I realize that, in fact, my theory seems to be much dangerous, taking count of the short period movements like 3 or 5 weeks.
You are right, those can be only retracements in the big move...
I don't say
  • #82
  • Apr 18, 2008 3:45pm Apr 18, 2008 3:45pm
Quoting dragosd1
Sorry, Flyjetz,
at what time did you entered those two last trades?
those are from this week setups, right?
so, why did you enter so late with them, today it's Friday...
could you please clarify?
EUR/GBP was entered today (Friday) at 0945 GMT
EUR/USD was entered today (Friday) at 1242 GMT

These trades are from this week's setups.

Why did I enter so late? As soon as I TP a trade, I immediately place a limit order on the same pair at that week's price. This system tries to predict a weekly candle range. Under perfect conditions, the price will move up and down within that candle. If I can go from Entry to TP multiple times on the same pair in the same week, I'm a happy man.
  • #83
  • Apr 18, 2008 4:05pm Apr 18, 2008 4:05pm
Quoting Flyjetz
EUR/GBP was entered today (Friday) at 0945 GMT
EUR/USD was entered today (Friday) at 1242 GMT

These trades are from this week's setups.

Why did I enter so late? As soon as I TP a trade, I immediately place a limit order on the same pair at that week's price. This system tries to predict a weekly candle range. Under perfect conditions, the price will move up and down within that candle. If I can go from Entry to TP multiple times on the same pair in the same week, I'm a happy man.
still confused
ok,so both are limit orders, not market orders, as I see....
I don't have the data for eur/gbp could you please post it to make me understand better what you mean, and what's your logic behind the strategy...please
cause seems to me that entering market at the end of period projected make no sense
somehow I may say the price action has gone....the move is complete...
thank's, hope I don't ask too much
I don't say
  • #84
  • Apr 19, 2008 8:57am Apr 19, 2008 8:57am
Mr flyjetz....

so if i get it correct lets take the example of the gbpjpy trade sold at 202...something now you just adjust your tp levels and let it run...?
i hope you know what i mean...

next week....gbpjpy....20%=200.48 (next tp?)
80%=204.37

or maybe you just set an other order in at 204.37 sell?
  • #85
  • Apr 19, 2008 11:15am Apr 19, 2008 11:15am
Quoting hollandpippin
Mr flyjetz....

so if i get it correct lets take the example of the gbpjpy trade sold at 202...something now you just adjust your tp levels and let it run...?
i hope you know what i mean...

next week....gbpjpy....20%=200.48 (next tp?)
80%=204.37

or maybe you just set an other order in at 204.37 sell?
no holland, once an order is entered, he doesnt add to it, he lets it run till tp, then he set limit for the next entry
  • #86
  • Apr 19, 2008 11:06pm Apr 19, 2008 11:06pm
Quoting dragosd1
still confused
ok,so both are limit orders, not market orders, as I see....
I don't have the data for eur/gbp could you please post it to make me understand better what you mean, and what's your logic behind the strategy...please
cause seems to me that entering market at the end of period projected make no sense
somehow I may say the price action has gone....the move is complete...
thank's, hope I don't ask too much
Both trades were set up as Limit Orders as soon as I TP'd them. However, the price traded all the way back down to the Limit Price, and were executed.

Last week's EUR/GBP data:
Entry 0.7953
Exit 0.8042

I think my last post explains my logic behind the strategy. Price should move up and down within the candle range over the week. How many times it moves up and down the candle is different for every pair every week. If I can ride the trend from 20% to 80% more than once in the same week, that's great.

Why do I enter trades late in the week? I try hard to keep this system automatic. Determining when in the week is "too late" to trade adds judgment and emotion to the equation, a dangerous input in my opinion. If I trigger a trade late in the week, the trade will may carry over to the following week, which is not a big deal. I will just update the TP to the new exit price.

I hope that answers your questions.

By the way, the only judgment I input into the system is my own risk management. I'm currently trading this system with 26 pairs. (I only post results here for 10 pairs because frankly, I don't have the time to do any more). The more pairs you trade, the more careful you need to be to watch out for too many trades against a single currency. For example, because the USD has been so weak over the last 20 weeks, I have several pairs trading against the USD. Two exceptions right now are the USDCAD and the GBPUSD. On those two pairs, I am trading LONG on the dollar. To offset my total exposure to the USD, I double my position size on those two trades. It gives me a little more piece of mind.
  • #87
  • Apr 19, 2008 11:15pm Apr 19, 2008 11:15pm
Quoting hollandpippin
Mr flyjetz....

so if i get it correct lets take the example of the gbpjpy trade sold at 202...something now you just adjust your tp levels and let it run...?
i hope you know what i mean...

next week....gbpjpy....20%=200.48 (next tp?)
80%=204.37

or maybe you just set an other order in at 204.37 sell?
Holland,

Last week, I entered the GBP/JPY SHORT at the 80% level: 202.02 and I set my TP to last week's 20% level: 198.24 (potential profit of 378 pips).

Since GBP/JPY did not hit 198.24 prior to Friday's close, I keep the trade open going into the weekend. Over the weekend, I recalculate all my 80% and 20% levels. Here's what I have for next week's GBP/JPY:

80% (Entry) 204.46
20% (Exit) 200.49

Now I go back to all my open positions and update the TP to the new Exit level. For the case of the GBP/JPY, I set the TP to 200.49. (Potential profit on the trade now drops to 153 pips). If the GBPJPY trades back down to the new TP, I immediately place a new LIMIT order at THIS week's entry price (204.46). If GBPJPY does not reach 200.49 prior to this week's close, then the position continues to be held and the TP is updated to reflect the new week's exit price.

Hopefully this example completely clears up your question.
  • #88
  • Apr 19, 2008 11:31pm Apr 19, 2008 11:31pm
PAIR Direction Entry Exit (My Position)

GBP/JPY Short 204.46* TP=200.49 (Short from 202.02)
GBP/USD Short 1.9885* TP=1.9651 (Short from 98.75
USD/JPY Short 102.94* TP=101.22 (Short from 99.53)
USD/CHF Short 1.0136* TP=0.9963 (Short from 1.0082)
EUR/USD Long 1.5778 TP=1.5991 (Long from 1.5721)
AUD/USD Long 0.9259 TP=0.9410 (Waiting for entry price)
NZD/USD Long 0.7829 TP=0.7968 (Long from 0.7892)
USD/CAD Long 1.0056* TP=1.0213 (Long from 1.0080)
EUR/GBP Long 0.7987* TP=0.8081 (Long from 0.7953)
EUR/JPY Short 162.72* TP=160.14 (Short from 161.45)

*Depending on your broker's weekend market spread, you may be able to get into this trade right now at a price better than the listed entry price!

Since I was already in several of these trades, I posted my original entry points. I adjust my exit point (TP) based on the new week's levels. If you are just getting in for the first time, I listed the proper entry points for those trades as well. When you see me post my closed positions, it will be based on my original entry price, not necessarily the entry prices posted above. However, if I end up closing a trade, I immediately reopen a trade with the current week's entry prices listed above. It's possible to run from entry price to exit price more than once in a week in a single currency.
  • #89
  • Apr 20, 2008 9:02am Apr 20, 2008 9:02am
#19) 21-Mar-08 Short USD/JPY 1.5648

is it a typing error goes usd/jpy is now doing like 103.67?!
  • #90
  • Apr 20, 2008 9:26am Apr 20, 2008 9:26am
Quoting hollandpippin
#19) 21-Mar-08 Short USD/JPY 1.5648

is it a typing error goes usd/jpy is now doing like 103.67?!

Looks like a cut and paste error. Thanks. Here's the correct data...
#19) 21-Mar-08 Short USD/JPY 99.53
  • #91
  • Apr 20, 2008 10:26am Apr 20, 2008 10:26am
EURJPY :
80% Projected : 204.49
20% Projected : 200.51
-> My broker is Alpari UK

Is this a valid entry points ?

Thanks Flyjetz for this method.
  • #92
  • Apr 20, 2008 2:43pm Apr 20, 2008 2:43pm
Quoting beyeu123
EURJPY :
80% Projected : 204.49
20% Projected : 200.51
-> My broker is Alpari UK

Is this a valid entry points ?

Thanks Flyjetz for this method.
If you mean GJ, then after my calculations they are valid
I don't say
  • #93
  • Apr 20, 2008 2:49pm Apr 20, 2008 2:49pm
Quoting beyeu123
EURJPY :
80% Projected : 204.49
20% Projected : 200.51
-> My broker is Alpari UK

Is this a valid entry points ?

Thanks Flyjetz for this method.

Those are very close to what I have for GBPJPY as well.
  • #94
  • Apr 20, 2008 3:04pm Apr 20, 2008 3:04pm
Quoting Flyjetz
Holland,

Last week, I entered the GBP/JPY SHORT at the 80% level: 202.02 and I set my TP to last week's 20% level: 198.24 (potential profit of 378 pips).

Since GBP/JPY did not hit 198.24 prior to Friday's close, I keep the trade open going into the weekend. Over the weekend, I recalculate all my 80% and 20% levels. Here's what I have for next week's GBP/JPY:

80% (Entry) 204.46
20% (Exit) 200.49

Now I go back to all my open positions and update the TP to the new Exit level. For the case of the GBP/JPY, I set the TP to 200.49. (Potential profit on the trade now drops to 153 pips). If the GBPJPY trades back down to the new TP, I immediately place a new LIMIT order at THIS week's entry price (204.46). If GBPJPY does not reach 200.49 prior to this week's close, then the position continues to be held and the TP is updated to reflect the new week's exit price.

Hopefully this example completely clears up your question.
Ok, this way helps to clarify your logic, now I think I understand.
So if the TP is hit you open another pending order, and adjust it from one week to the next, (if it isn't triggered). If the order is triggered, but the TP isn't hit, you adjust the TP value for the next week, but also put another pending order for that week value, right? Or you don't put another as long as the first one is in action?
I don't say
  • #95
  • Apr 20, 2008 3:15pm Apr 20, 2008 3:15pm
Quoting dragosd1
Ok, this way helps to clarify your logic, now I think I understand.
So if the TP is hit you open another pending order, and adjust it from one week to the next, (if it isn't triggered). If the order is triggered, but the TP isn't hit, you adjust the TP value for the next week, but also put another pending order for that week value, right? Or you don't put another as long as the first one is in action?
That's exactly right. If I have an open trade from last week that ran into this week, I adjust the TP to this week's value. I DO NOT place a limit order at the new week's entry price until the previous trade is closed. Theoretically, you probably could do this (with proper risk management) and be fine. But for me, it makes it easier if I only have one trade (per pair) on at a time. I actually experimented doing this same system with monthly 80/20 setups instead of weekly 80/20 setups. For me, it was too confusing to keep straight which pair was trading which system. Since the weekly system has been successful so far, I decided to limit myself to one trade per pair at a time.
  • #96
  • Apr 20, 2008 3:49pm Apr 20, 2008 3:49pm
ok, now it's crystal clear.
I also start to experiment it daily, I shall keep it post the results
I don't say
  • #97
  • Apr 20, 2008 4:48pm Apr 20, 2008 4:48pm
Quoting dragosd1
ok, now it's crystal clear.
I also start to experiment it daily, I shall keep it post the results
I'll be interested in seeing your daily results. I considered doing the same but decided against it because it would take up too much of my time, and because daily candles are different at different brokers. It would be difficult to find a system that accommodates everyone's data.
  • #98
  • Apr 20, 2008 7:12pm Apr 20, 2008 7:12pm
Quoting Flyjetz
I'll be interested in seeing your daily results. I considered doing the same but decided against it because it would take up too much of my time, and because daily candles are different at different brokers. It would be difficult to find a system that accommodates everyone's data.
It's true, there are many differencies, even in the wk charts... some greater then 10 pips...
I don't say
  • #99
  • Apr 20, 2008 8:40pm Apr 20, 2008 8:40pm
Quoting dragosd1
It's true, there are many differencies, even in the wk charts... some greater then 10 pips...
What I should have said is that different brokers use different cutoff times to determine their daily candle. Weekly cutoffs happen at the same time for all brokers. So with the weekly candle, you can expect minor differences in min and max weekly pips, but with daily candles, the differences could be dramatically different.
  • #100
  • Apr 20, 2008 9:02pm Apr 20, 2008 9:02pm
Quoting Flyjetz
What I should have said is that different brokers use different cutoff times to determine their daily candle. Weekly cutoffs happen at the same time for all brokers. So with the weekly candle, you can expect minor differences in min and max weekly pips, but with daily candles, the differences could be dramatically different.
True, but I wanna say that are major differences between same daily candle at different brokers...
and diff platform
so, you did say the same thing....
I don't say
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