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Weekly 80/20 Setups

  • #61
  • Apr 16, 2008 7:28am Apr 16, 2008 7:28am
Entered two trades this morning:

Trade No. Enter Date Direction Pair Price
#34) 16-Apr-08 Long USD/CAD 1.0080
#35) 16-Apr-08 Short EUR/JPY 161.45

I currently have OPEN positions in:

#19) USD/JPY (short)
#29) USD/CHF (short)
#31) NZD/USD (long)
#32) AUD/USD (long)
#34) USD/CAD (long)
#35) EUR/JPY (short)
  • #62
  • Apr 16, 2008 7:54am Apr 16, 2008 7:54am
Closed Trade #32:
Enter Date Direction Pair Price Exit Date Price Pips
13-Apr-08 Long AUD/USD 0.9211 16-Apr-08 0.9363 +152

http://i276.photobucket.com/albums/k...USD16APR08.jpg

Overall Results:
+3102 Cumulative Pip Total

24 Winning Trades (+172.75 pips/win)
6 Losing Trades (-172.33 pips/loss)
80.00% Win Rate
+103.40 Pips/Trade


By Pair:
GBP/JPY +510
GBP/USD +283
USD/JPY +192
USD/CHF +586
EUR/USD +985
AUD/USD +194
NZD/USD +330
USD/CAD +211
EUR/GBP +280
EUR/JPY -388

I currently have OPEN positions in:

#19) USD/JPY (short)
#29) USD/CHF (short)
#31) NZD/USD (long)
#34) USD/CAD (long)
#35) EUR/JPY (short)

http://forexfactory.com/images/misc/progress.gif

  • #63
  • Apr 16, 2008 8:51am Apr 16, 2008 8:51am
thanks very much for the calculations
i am a happy man now!!!!....
  • #64
  • Apr 16, 2008 9:32am Apr 16, 2008 9:32am
I hope you have as much success as I have. Remember not to get greedy and apply proper risk management!!
  • #65
  • Apr 17, 2008 10:27am Apr 17, 2008 10:27am
Mr flyjetz

i did some calculation on the usdjpy and to make sure i didnt make any
mistakes here are my results

projected max 102.46
projected min 99.64
projected mid 101.50

80 %=101.89
20 %=100.20

according to my brokers data (alpari uk)
is this good?

thanks again for the calculations!!
  • #66
  • Apr 17, 2008 12:16pm Apr 17, 2008 12:16pm
Quoting hollandpippin
Mr flyjetz

i did some calculation on the usdjpy and to make sure i didnt make any
mistakes here are my results

projected max 102.46
projected min 99.64
projected mid 101.50

80 %=101.89
20 %=100.20

according to my brokers data (alpari uk)
is this good?

thanks again for the calculations!!
Your numbers are all real close to mine, with the exception of your midpoint. I think you meant to type 101.05.

Here are my numbers:

projected max 102.46
projected min 99.66
projected mid 101.06

80 %=101.90
20 %=100.22

With the exception of your midpoint, you and I are within 1-2 pips on all our numbers. I'd chalk up the difference to different brokers. I use Oanda.

Great work Jedi! Now go forth and prosper!
  • #67
  • Apr 17, 2008 1:44pm Apr 17, 2008 1:44pm
Entered two new trades this morning:

New positions are in BOLD

I currently have OPEN positions in:

Trade No. Enter Date Direction Pair Price
#19) 21-Mar-08 Short USD/JPY 1.5648
#29) 10-Apr-08 Short USD/CHF 1.0082
#31) 13-Apr-08 Long NZD/USD 0.7892
#34) 16-Apr-08 Long USD/CAD 1.0080
#35) 16-Apr-08 Short EUR/JPY 161.45
#36) 17-Apr-08 Short GBP/JPY 202.02
#37) 17-Apr-08 Short GBP/USD 1.9875

http://forexfactory.com/images/misc/progress.gif

  • #68
  • Apr 17, 2008 6:33pm Apr 17, 2008 6:33pm
Quoting Flyjetz
Entered two new trades this morning:

New positions are in BOLD

I currently have OPEN positions in:

Trade No. Enter Date Direction Pair Price
#19) 21-Mar-08 Short USD/JPY 1.5648
#29) 10-Apr-08 Short USD/CHF 1.0082
#31) 13-Apr-08 Long NZD/USD 0.7892
#34) 16-Apr-08 Long USD/CAD 1.0080
#35) 16-Apr-08 Short EUR/JPY 161.45
#36) 17-Apr-08 Short GBP/JPY 202.02
#37) 17-Apr-08 Short GBP/USD 1.9875


http://forexfactory.com/images/misc/progress.gif

Hello FlyJetz,

I discovered your journal earlier today and i must thank you for your work and your help. I think you have something very interesting here. I need some help figuring out a couple of things. Let me attach an excel file for GBP/JPY and i'll appreciate if you can tell me where i went wrong. I got my Max and Min from IBFX.

I thank you in advance

ypierre
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls fly2(1).xls   21 KB | 389 downloads
  • #69
  • Apr 17, 2008 7:04pm Apr 17, 2008 7:04pm
Hi,
Interesting system.
Tell me how do you exit the bad trades?
You just wait for expiring date and close them even if they are negative?
Thank's
I don't say
  • #70
  • Apr 17, 2008 11:09pm Apr 17, 2008 11:09pm
Quoting ypierre
Hello FlyJetz,

I discovered your journal earlier today and i must thank you for your work and your help. I think you have something very interesting here. I need some help figuring out a couple of things. Let me attach an excel file for GBP/JPY and i'll appreciate if you can tell me where i went wrong. I got my Max and Min from IBFX.

I thank you in advance

ypierre

The only thing I can see wrong is Cell F26. You are only adding the previous 19 cells and then dividing by 20. You need to add the previous 20 cells. Other than that, it looks good.
  • #71
  • Apr 17, 2008 11:12pm Apr 17, 2008 11:12pm
Quoting dragosd1
Hi,
Interesting system.
Tell me how do you exit the bad trades?
You just wait for expiring date and close them even if they are negative?
Thank's
I don't close bad trades. Every weekend, I recalculate Entry and TP levels. On all trades, good or bad, open or closed, I reset the TP to the new week's TP. Eventually, the TP will be hit. For trades that drag on for several weeks, it will most definately be for a loss, but since it still has to hit the 80% point, it gets out for a smaller loss as it must retrace some before exiting.
  • #72
  • Edited 10:51am Apr 18, 2008 6:12am | Edited 10:51am
[quote=Flyjetz;1957663]I don't close bad trades. Every weekend, I recalculate Entry and TP levels. On all trades, good or bad, open or closed, I reset the TP to the new week's TP. Eventually, the TP will be hit. For trades that drag on for several weeks, it will most definately be for a loss, but since it still has to hit the 80% point, it gets out for a smaller loss as it must retrace some before exiting.[/quot

Didn't quite understand, must practice a little bit on charts to see your point logic.
I did some inputs for 7 pairs and it looks great. Only one problem, how could we manage to filter the week slope, cause on recent slope change (put a 12 LWMA on chart and see how changes in slope), the calculations indicate negative/positive slope, but the next week slope is reversed. So in those cases you have to buy instead of sell and viceversa. Otherwise the system manage to spot very well the weekly range, with 15-25% accuracy. I try to plot the projected midpoint to filter trade direction, so if price enters below but the slope is down, then you better buy, and viceversa, but it didn't always work. Hope you get the point...
Did some modifications on the excel file, so you can easily spot next week data.
Regarding the excel file, I think you refer to cell G24 (we don't have a F26 cell) slope average, so we need even the first week slope for calculation.


Edited...
here is the modified version with 20 weeks slope calculation, also a indicator for average slope for the last 10, 5 ,3 weeks, that really helps in taking buy/sell decisions.
it also have all the data for the 9 most volatile pairs, mmaybe you guys will add more, I'm exhausted...
Good work Flyjetz, all it's 95% accurate with this system!
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Proiectia weekly.xls   147 KB | 409 downloads
I don't say
  • #73
  • Edited 6:47am Apr 18, 2008 6:14am | Edited 6:47am
Hm, I think something is wrong...
What is your data for this week GBP/JPY? WH, WL and WMP?

PS A good example for what I am saying is GJ trade taken short, when the last 3 weeks bias is long. So, if you taken that long, from 198.24 to 202.02 or better 100%, there you have a winner... we have to manage a way to determine better the next weeks bias... the 12 LWMA can be a point, combined with the week midpoint.
I will do some research...
I don't say
  • #74
  • Apr 18, 2008 7:57am Apr 18, 2008 7:57am
Guys, taking GU as example, looking at 4H charts,
price enters week below midpoint level, so, the logic tells us that it has to reach at least 80% level to have a real SELL as the average slope show, so we can make a BUY, with a nice result of +150 pips as price reaches 80% level.
from here, the slope and the logic, tells us to SELL, so another +230 pips from (80% as 198.60 to 20% as 196.30).
at this point we are at the middle of the week and level 20% reached, so what do we do?
we just watch price action, and the facts are telling us that from the calculations price MUST reach at least one of the 0% or 100% levels, so, at this point (196.30) we can search for typical price action patterns, SR lines, use 12LWMA as guide, 123 patterns (in this case on 30M chart there are 2 of them), so the most inspired one will took another BUY, as the price reverses slope and... result is from 20% to 100% another +300 pips in bag.
so, a total of +680 pips by following the calculations, the logic and the price action.
what do you have to say, guys?
I don't say
  • #75
  • Apr 18, 2008 11:27am Apr 18, 2008 11:27am
Entered two new trades this morning:

New positions are in BOLD

I currently have OPEN positions in:

Trade No. Enter Date Direction Pair Price
#19) 21-Mar-08 Short USD/JPY 1.5648
#29) 10-Apr-08 Short USD/CHF 1.0082
#31) 13-Apr-08 Long NZD/USD 0.7892
#34) 16-Apr-08 Long USD/CAD 1.0080
#35) 16-Apr-08 Short EUR/JPY 161.45
#36) 17-Apr-08 Short GBP/JPY 202.02
#37) 17-Apr-08 Short GBP/USD 1.9875
#38) 18-Apr-08 Long EUR/GBP 0.7953
#39) 18-Apr-08 Long EUR/USD 1.5721
  • #76
  • Apr 18, 2008 11:30am Apr 18, 2008 11:30am
Quoting dragosd1


Regarding the excel file, I think you refer to cell G24 (we don't have a F26 cell) slope average, so we need even the first week slope for calculation.


Cell G24 is fine. I should have said Cell F24. It should be "SUM(F4:F23)/20" not "SUN (F5:F23)/20"
  • #77
  • Apr 18, 2008 11:42am Apr 18, 2008 11:42am
Quoting dragosd1
[


Edited...
here is the modified version with 20 weeks slope calculation, also a indicator for average slope for the last 10, 5 ,3 weeks, that really helps in taking buy/sell decisions.
it also have all the data for the 9 most volatile pairs, mmaybe you guys will add more, I'm exhausted...
Good work Flyjetz, all it's 95% accurate with this system!

Dragosd1, I like your spreadsheet. Good work. I like the visual indicators. Keep in mind, I have found that the strength of this system is in identifying breaks in the 20-wk trend. So if the 20 wk trend is negative, but the 3 week trend is positive, my system will enter a SELL on that 3-wk positive momentum to try to capitalize on the reversion back to the 20-week trend. I'm sure you can play this system on smaller time frames (such as 10, 5, or 3 weeks, as you mention), but I will continue to trade based off my original system. I'll be interested to hear how your system pans out.

On that note, I wanted to point out something I have noticed about my system. I have been trading it for almost 3 months now. It definately moves in waves. By that I mean, the system will enter a lot of trades at a certain time, then the next week, it will TP a lot of trades, followed by entering a lot of trades, and TP'ing a lot of trades. That causes your account balance to go back and forth (like the tide). But with patience, and proper risk management, the end result has been spectacular.
  • #78
  • Apr 18, 2008 11:46am Apr 18, 2008 11:46am
Quoting dragosd1
Guys, taking GU as example, looking at 4H charts,
price enters week below midpoint level, so, the logic tells us that it has to reach at least 80% level to have a real SELL as the average slope show, so we can make a BUY, with a nice result of +150 pips as price reaches 80% level.
from here, the slope and the logic, tells us to SELL, so another +230 pips from (80% as 198.60 to 20% as 196.30).
at this point we are at the middle of the week and level 20% reached, so what do we do?
we just watch price action, and the facts are telling us that from the calculations price MUST reach at least one of the 0% or 100% levels, so, at this point (196.30) we can search for typical price action patterns, SR lines, use 12LWMA as guide, 123 patterns (in this case on 30M chart there are 2 of them), so the most inspired one will took another BUY, as the price reverses slope and... result is from 20% to 100% another +300 pips in bag.
so, a total of +680 pips by following the calculations, the logic and the price action.
what do you have to say, guys?
I like your logic here as well. My system was set up to draw a projected candle based off previous price action (trend). How you choose to slice and dice that projected candle is up to you. I chose 80/20 as a safe margin to cut a 60% chunk of the projected candle. However, one of my cardinal rules is to place trades ONLY in the direction of the trend. To employ your system, I'd have to break that rule. That's just not my style of trading. I hope it works for you though.
  • #79
  • Apr 18, 2008 2:43pm Apr 18, 2008 2:43pm
Quoting Flyjetz
Entered two new trades this morning:

New positions are in BOLD

I currently have OPEN positions in:

Trade No. Enter Date Direction Pair Price
#19) 21-Mar-08 Short USD/JPY 1.5648
#29) 10-Apr-08 Short USD/CHF 1.0082
#31) 13-Apr-08 Long NZD/USD 0.7892
#34) 16-Apr-08 Long USD/CAD 1.0080
#35) 16-Apr-08 Short EUR/JPY 161.45
#36) 17-Apr-08 Short GBP/JPY 202.02
#37) 17-Apr-08 Short GBP/USD 1.9875
#38) 18-Apr-08 Long EUR/GBP 0.7953
#39) 18-Apr-08 Long EUR/USD 1.5721
Sorry, Flyjetz,
at what time did you entered those two last trades?
those are from this week setups, right?
so, why did you enter so late with them, today it's Friday...
could you please clarify?
I don't say
  • #80
  • Apr 18, 2008 2:50pm Apr 18, 2008 2:50pm
Quoting Flyjetz
I like your logic here as well. My system was set up to draw a projected candle based off previous price action (trend). How you choose to slice and dice that projected candle is up to you. I chose 80/20 as a safe margin to cut a 60% chunk of the projected candle. However, one of my cardinal rules is to place trades ONLY in the direction of the trend. To employ your system, I'd have to break that rule. That's just not my style of trading. I hope it works for you though.
Sorry, Flyjetz,
didn't want to change anything in the system here,
as a matter of fact, IS YOUR SYSTEM.
just noticed that some days, even if the projected candle coordinates are 95% accurate, the price is just running in the opposite direction within the new candle....
the only risk is to skip a trading week or, that's the worse case, to open a sell in the middle of an uptrend (that is NOT good at all)
I don't say
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