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We all need pivots to win..yes or not? 13 replies

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The System II (Yes with irony)

  • #301
  • Apr 18, 2008 1:56pm Apr 18, 2008 1:56pm
Quoting feb2865
I defintely enjoy helping others others Don' t hesitate to ask

Skyline is an amazing programmer and also very experienced
Thx a lot Rialto and Feb for your kind words !
  • #302
  • Apr 18, 2008 2:08pm Apr 18, 2008 2:08pm
Skyline,

I love Pizza too! can I come to visit! oops ! you meant Pisa! I would love to visit there too! Someday my wife and I will do just that!

Comune di Pisa
Municipal coat of arms





Location of Pisa in Italy
CountryItalyRegionToscanaProvincePisa (PI)MayorPaolo Fontanelli
(since May 25, 2003)Elevation4 m (13 ft)Area185 kmē (71 sq mi)Population (as of December 31, 2005) - Total90,482 - Density489/kmē (1,267/sq mi)Time zoneCET, UTC+1Coordinates43°43′N 10°24′ECoordinates: 43°43′N 10°24′EGentilicPisaniDialing code050Postal code56100FrazioniMarina di Pisa, Tirrenia, Calambrone, Barbaricina, Riglione, Oratoio, Putignano, San Piero a Grado, Coltano, Sant'Ermete, OspedalettoPatronSan Ranieri - DayJune 17



Have a very enjoyable weekend to all!
Unus pro omnibus, omnes pro uno
  • #303
  • Apr 18, 2008 2:09pm Apr 18, 2008 2:09pm
Quoting feb2865
I definitely have a bag to tricks when it comes down to the markets. I started as a runner(clerk) on the pits back in 1981. So go figure...long story.

If you guys stick around 'Ill show you some of them. One thing you won't hear form is beggin' for any money like some other people do. Thanks to the divine order, I don't need it. The markets has plenty of money if you develop the ability to milk it consistently. That's why you need to read the market properly. Having your eyes crossed looking at squiggly lines won't make it. I swear.

Some people have asked me before about tutoring. Unfortunately, due health conditions I don't do it anymore. The only people I take on private is floor traders looking to get into electronic trading.

But as long as I stay around and as I said you guys show interest, I'll lay a hand.
Thanks Feb ! You're a generous guy ! Look forward to learning more from you.

Have a nice relaxing week-end all !

Bakuli
  • #304
  • Apr 18, 2008 2:11pm Apr 18, 2008 2:11pm
Quoting moneda
Skyline,

I love Pizza too! can I come to visit! oops ! you meant Pisa! I would love to visit there too! Someday my wife and I will do just that!

Comune di Pisa
Municipal coat of arms





Location of Pisa in Italy
CountryItalyRegionToscanaProvincePisa (PI)MayorPaolo Fontanelli
(since May 25, 2003)Elevation4 m (13 ft)Area185 kmē (71 sq mi)Population (as of December 31, 2005) - Total90,482 - Density489/kmē (1,267/sq mi)Time zoneCET, UTC+1Coordinates43°43′N 10°24′ECoordinates: 43°43′N 10°24′EGentilicPisaniDialing code050Postal code56100FrazioniMarina di Pisa, Tirrenia, Calambrone, Barbaricina, Riglione, Oratoio, Putignano, San Piero a Grado, Coltano, Sant'Ermete, OspedalettoPatronSan Ranieri - DayJune 17



Have a very enjoyable weekend to all!
  • #305
  • Apr 18, 2008 2:34pm Apr 18, 2008 2:34pm
I think my next trip is going to be Italy!!!!
Peace
  • #306
  • Apr 18, 2008 6:38pm Apr 18, 2008 6:38pm
Quoting Pervaz
Hi

I thought I would post my first System II trade and would love to get some comments/feedback

I used the fib tool to identify the swing points and it was interesting to see the 50% line being used as a support.

Conclusion:
1. The break out happenedat 164.42 but i didnt realise i should have put a limit order ( I just cannot work out how to put a limit order into Mt4!! - need to spend some time to research that).

2. I entered the trade manually at 164.59 (with a 20 TP (164.78) and 20 SL (164.37)) with a 0.1 lot

Outcome:
closed at a loss of $2.10

Lesson Leant: The market just hasnt decided to move in any direction (could be with the fact its Friday afternoon (BST) and the duration of the candles/time it took to "breakout".


Bugger !!
Pervaz,

Looking at your chart the first thing I saw on this pair was that it had already had some HUGE upward moves prior to your fib placement, then it went into a congestion range at your 50% level on your fib. I would have drawn the fib on a much tighter range "after" that big move. Find the new support at 163.88 and new resistance at 164.21 and then watch what happens to price.........lots of very wicky candles for 2.5 hrs but there were some subtle clues to spot along the way as to where price was going to go.

I prefer to get in earlier than the breakout but even in this case the breakout trade was a good one to get into off of the smaller S/R range.
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trading naked.......
  • #307
  • Apr 18, 2008 8:15pm Apr 18, 2008 8:15pm
Quoting piphitman
Pervaz,

Looking at your chart the first thing I saw on this pair was that it had already had some HUGE upward moves prior to your fib placement, then it went into a congestion range at your 50% level on your fib. I would have drawn the fib on a much tighter range "after" that big move. Find the new support at 163.88 and new resistance at 164.21 and then watch what happens to price.........lots of very wicky candles for 2.5 hrs but there were some subtle clues to spot along the way as to where price was going to go.

I prefer to get in earlier than the breakout but even in this case the breakout trade was a good one to get into off of the smaller S/R range.
Piphitman

I appreciate your efforts in showing your fib technique. A you have read we're using Fibonacci just to give us kinda of a head start of the continuation of the move, not to trade inside the fibs. I deeply respect your strategy but in the kindest words I could ever use, it will distort considerably the main purpose of this thread which is reading the market.

You can use even straight horizontal lines, doesn't matter. The reason I am using fibs is to have a better visual on the pullback. That's it.

If you don't mind I would like to keep the main purpose of this thread as it is.

Again thanks a lot for your efforts
Peace
  • #308
  • Apr 19, 2008 2:47am Apr 19, 2008 2:47am
sorry feb, didn't mean to deviate from the threads main purpose and scope, seriously, sorry about that.


The one thing I noticed on Pervaz' S/R areas/fib was the much smaller S/R range that was developing after that last big high.

That little S/R channel was developing over 2.5 hours just coiling up, we knew that price was eventually going to re-test again somewhere?
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trading naked.......
  • #309
  • Apr 19, 2008 3:54am Apr 19, 2008 3:54am
Quoting feb2865
I think my next trip is going to be Italy!!!!
  • #310
  • Apr 19, 2008 7:02am Apr 19, 2008 7:02am
Quoting piphitman
sorry feb, didn't mean to deviate from the threads main purpose and scope, seriously, sorry about that.


The one thing I noticed on Pervaz' S/R areas/fib was the much smaller S/R range that was developing after that last big high.

That little S/R channel was developing over 2.5 hours just coiling up, we knew that price was eventually going to re-test again somewhere?
Depends on the time of the day...looks like the move was due followed by a change of direction.

The time of the day is important. If you trade this setup close to 5:00 EST when the market is ready to sleep, chances are you will have a counter move as banks are trying to make last-minute profits. Something similar across the markets. If you play this strategy during Asia/Sydney session, you will find that many times momentum is not there. therefore will take hours for a good setup to develop.

In my opinion, the best way to play this is on London/New York session.
Peace
  • #311
  • Apr 19, 2008 7:08am Apr 19, 2008 7:08am
Quoting piphitman
sorry feb, didn't mean to deviate from the threads main purpose and scope, seriously, sorry about that.


The one thing I noticed on Pervaz' S/R areas/fib was the much smaller S/R range that was developing after that last big high.

That little S/R channel was developing over 2.5 hours just coiling up, we knew that price was eventually going to re-test again somewhere?

Piphitman

If you notice on the line you wrote "larger move" - the line in top of the price, you'll find there was a shallow pullback with a nice follow-thru...with at least 20 ticks

PD: no need to apologize, your comments are always welcome. Just that I would love to keep the thread in line. I personally have a great admiration for your posts, you're part of our naked brotherhood....
Peace
  • #312
  • Apr 19, 2008 8:59pm Apr 19, 2008 8:59pm
Quoting skyline
waiting for a long break now...

hi skyline .... im newbie here....

did u use some indicator that give u the line for market open and close there.... can you share with me ...

thanx in advance my frenz
  • #313
  • Edited 3:28am Apr 21, 2008 3:18am | Edited 3:28am
Thanks feb2865 for this thread. I can't show my normal charts as they have squiggly lines galore but this is the first time I have traded using your method.

You have mentioned previously looking for at least 2 candles for the retracement. This trade from this morning on gbpusd had about 8 candles in the retracement, I sold at 1.9944 and got out 1.9920.

I could have just as easily traded eurgbp, eurusd, usdjpy or usdchf - lots of opportunities this am.

Anyway is there an upper limit to the number of candles in the chop where you start avoiding trades?

Many thanks once again, suffering from squiggly line withdrawal symptoms, what do they say it takes 21 days to break a habit!! Cheers.
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  • #314
  • Apr 21, 2008 3:39am Apr 21, 2008 3:39am
Quoting nizamac79
hi skyline .... im newbie here....

did u use some indicator that give u the line for market open and close there.... can you share with me ...

thanx in advance my frenz
Hi Nizamac,
I'm testing it right now , will share it later... stay tuned !

Cheers,
Skyline
  • #315
  • Apr 21, 2008 3:49am Apr 21, 2008 3:49am
i wanted to tell Feb You rock!!! Thank you for your system.

1st swing a-b
2nd swing c-d
vertical trendline - london open
second entry using you strategy - "are you're going to move up...huh???" "show me your higher highs mother !@#$$$$% LOL

early exit because of the deep pullback
thanks again
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  • #316
  • Apr 21, 2008 5:21am Apr 21, 2008 5:21am
Starting the new week, price meandering during Asian session, waiting until Frankie and London to open to get some good price action going.

Price breaks Fridays last support level..........
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trading naked.......
  • #317
  • Apr 21, 2008 6:49am Apr 21, 2008 6:49am
Hi,

I am watching this thread with interest and am trying to implement this strategy today without much success. Maybe i still haven't grasped the main concept of it.

The question here from me is how to define a false breakout. Here is the chart of GBP/JPY today earlier. I am not sure if this is considered a valid trade. The price broke through the high of 206.12 but just a few pips higher. Like 5 pips higher, making it 206.17. So do i set a buy stop at 206.14, 15, 16 or 17. All these will make a losing position.

I hope someone can understand what i am talking.

Anyway, thanks for the thread! It is really helpful. I guess there are many other lurkers like me here in this forum watching this thread with great interest.
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  • #318
  • Apr 21, 2008 6:57am Apr 21, 2008 6:57am
Hello,

This is what I am looking at....waiting for the market to show me the way. What do you guys think?
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Unus pro omnibus, omnes pro uno
  • #319
  • Apr 21, 2008 7:03am Apr 21, 2008 7:03am
hey moneda,

Looks like a nice setup, except that you need to adjust your stop loss accordingly because i was also looking at these two trades as well and was wondering where should i put the stop loss.

In the 50 fibo maybe? For the gbp, it would be like 30pips more for the stop loss. Euro is like 40 pips. So the point now here is if the trade is worth that much?

Just my 2 cents.
  • #320
  • Apr 21, 2008 7:06am Apr 21, 2008 7:06am
Quoting morton82
Hi,

I am watching this thread with interest and am trying to implement this strategy today without much success. Maybe i still haven't grasped the main concept of it.

The question here from me is how to define a false breakout. Here is the chart of GBP/JPY today earlier. I am not sure if this is considered a valid trade. The price broke through the high of 206.12 but just a few pips higher. Like 5 pips higher, making it 206.17. So do i set a buy stop at 206.14, 15, 16 or 17. All these will make a losing position.

I hope someone can understand what i am talking.

Anyway, thanks for the thread! It is really helpful. I guess there are many other lurkers like me here in this forum watching this thread with great interest.

Hello Morton,

I will give this a try and others can add or subtract... it seems to me that what you are calling a breakout is more like a pullback and the entry signal would have been at the continuation of the down swing. The pound yen is very volatile as you already know and Feb's rules are mostly focusing on the e/u and the g/u so you may need to make some adjustments. Have you read the whole thread...if you have not, I would recommended before it turns into a three day task.

Good luck and keep asking questions...I know I will.
Unus pro omnibus, omnes pro uno
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