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  • #161
  • Mar 31, 2008 8:49am Mar 31, 2008 8:49am
Quoting fierceman
I was hoping no one would notice that
Heh. Don't worry, I got caught out with you. All the charts look kinda scary right now, nasty little ranges. It's always been easy to buy EURUSD dips, but now I think sticking to Yen crosses will be safer until Euro comes down a little. I'm totally afraid of [currency] heights. Doctor says a cure is under reseearch. Brrrr.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #162
  • Mar 31, 2008 2:58pm Mar 31, 2008 2:58pm
Quoting Plutonite
As soon as you guys spoke it went down
Well then I posted what I posted at just the right time I guess
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #163
  • Apr 1, 2008 7:36am Apr 1, 2008 7:36am
Really kids, it's as simple as shorting that daily pinbar formed yesterday.

I guess there was an announcement of some sorts about half an hour ago. Something called ISM.

Ok, well....the pinbar still stands, whatever ISM means.

No I just need to figure out where to take profits. This looks a lot like the last pinbar to me.

Euro is getting heavy.....very heavy.

Seeking Light is right, everyone is already long the Euro. And I heard something about a EUR bank writing down losses......this is only the first one.

Through chaos, there is profit.

  • #164
  • Apr 3, 2008 1:01am Apr 3, 2008 1:01am
Interesting moment now on both cable and EURUSD. What was initially a pickup from the dips has now formed nice tops, and reversal action downward ensues. I think if the bearish action holds for another 4 hours, the stage is set for 1.9650 GU and 1.5350 EU. And no this is no "elliot wave" count, you nutters. Sheesh.


Much more dangerous playing on euro than on cable though, given the strong trend in the former.

Good luck.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #165
  • Apr 3, 2008 4:07am Apr 3, 2008 4:07am
UPDATE: The supports are holding like concrete. Classical partial take profit situation for me (mutters something about bird in the hand being better than 2 kissing on a tree).

Interestingly enough, the euro drop is more sustainable than on cable at the moment. Similarly, dollar gains on swissy are not being sold off quickly. New York actually looks to be interesting today? Wow.

Quoting Plutonite
Interesting moment now on both cable and EURUSD. What was initially a pickup from the dips has now formed nice tops, and reversal action downward ensues. I think if the bearish action holds for another 4 hours, the stage is set for 1.9650 GU and 1.5350 EU. And no this is no "elliot wave" count, you nutters. Sheesh.


Much more dangerous playing on euro than on cable though, given the strong trend in the former.

Good luck.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #166
  • Apr 5, 2008 9:15am Apr 5, 2008 9:15am
if 5747 breaks then we can see a retest of 5869

5869 holds the key to a test of year high 5903 or 5915 major resistance.

break 5915 and we see 1.6 psychological level.

but if 5747 holds, we go to hawaii

March month close holds the key here
  • #167
  • Apr 9, 2008 11:05am Apr 9, 2008 11:05am
Quoting Plutonite
(mutters something about bird in the hand being better than 2 kissing on a tree).
a sparrow in the hand is better than pigeon on the roof
  • #168
  • Apr 9, 2008 11:44am Apr 9, 2008 11:44am
Quoting digitil
a sparrow in the hand is better than pigeon on the roof
or sadly the other way arround, the small loss is better then big...p
its just money
  • #169
  • Apr 11, 2008 6:04am Apr 11, 2008 6:04am
Someone familiar with diamond tops ? I spot them so rarely that I can't share any good statistic judgment from it. My first assumption is that this "diamond" is too short in candles. Agree ?

Only info/research I can find about diamond pattern is from stocks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Measure twice, cut once
  • #170
  • Apr 11, 2008 6:38am Apr 11, 2008 6:38am
In Bulkowski's Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns he rates the predictive power of diamons as "poor." His diamond examples often included many more candles and many times encompassed an entire head and shoulders pattern. Lastly, he included the entire range of the candle, not just the body as you have.
  • #171
  • Apr 11, 2008 7:01am Apr 11, 2008 7:01am
Quoting aediaz1
Someone familiar with diamond tops ? I spot them so rarely that I can't share any good statistic judgment from it. My first assumption is that this "diamond" is too short in candles. Agree ?

Only info/research I can find about diamond pattern is from stocks.
Igrok has a book on them and deals with them a lot. I do not own or endorse it. All disclaimers apply etc.

He has a thread here at:

http://forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=21887

Maybe he can help.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #172
  • Edited 8:17am Apr 11, 2008 7:39am | Edited 8:17am
Quoting philmcgrew
In Bulkowski's Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns he rates the predictive power of diamons as "poor." His diamond examples often included many more candles and many times encompassed an entire head and shoulders pattern. Lastly, he included the entire range of the candle, not just the body as you have.
Yeah, I had a peak at he's homepage and saw the same info as you share here.

I'm not sure where I had it from, but I believed that diamond pattern was "known" as high-probability pattern. Well, seems like I was all wrong.


Thank you for your link Seekinglight, which turned out to be one exceptional thread !
Measure twice, cut once
  • #173
  • Apr 16, 2008 8:24am Apr 16, 2008 8:24am
Quoting fierceman
Once again we have Euro CPI out way above target. This time even higher (3.5% vs. previous 3.2%)

In case you missed it last time, this is very bullish as it eliminates any chance of an ECB rate cut - in fact it may even prompt another (do I dare say it?) hike. See you at 1.7000 .
OK so the breakout didn't happen that day... but now 2 weeks later we have a breakout based on inflation numbers (3.6% y/y). I am not very impressed with the momentum of the breakout so far, but chances are good this will work out as promised in the end (despite the 2 week delay). I'm sure there are some hungry eyes watching today's closing price.

The market has to realize that Eurozone interest rates are not coming down any time soon. If interest rates are still the predominant factor in fx, then we could see 1.7000 before this trend finally gives up.
  • #174
  • Apr 16, 2008 9:04am Apr 16, 2008 9:04am
Quoting aediaz1
Thank you for your link Seekinglight, which turned out to be one exceptional thread !
No prob, all in a day's work
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #175
  • Apr 18, 2008 2:21pm Apr 18, 2008 2:21pm
So, the LIBOR interest jump on Thursday had an effect and caused some profit0taking I suppose.

Then we've got govt nerds grumbling about invonenient volatility na dtoo much dollar-selling going on, which of course is being diligently ignored by the market.

Then we take a look at some corp. earnings statements and - surprise - companies deriving significant income from outside the U.S. are doing much better.

This makes me think that it's still a Euro-bull market and we haven't hit a plateau yet. Maybe we retrace to 1.56 or something, fine, since rate cuts might be .25 only... but seriously: the USA is more decoupled than the market gives it credit (uh, I mean, "debit", haha) for.

No? Yes?
  • #176
  • Apr 18, 2008 10:26pm Apr 18, 2008 10:26pm
This is an interesting trend that is developing on EUR/USD and it's something I'm sure many traders are looking at since it's one of the oldest ones in the book-MACD Divergence.

As you can see on the daily chart, price has been making new closing highs, while the MACD has not. Simple to see, yet effective.
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  • #177
  • Apr 22, 2008 12:52pm Apr 22, 2008 12:52pm
Quoting NewstraderFX
This is an interesting trend that is developing on EUR/USD and it's something I'm sure many traders are looking at since it's one of the oldest ones in the book-MACD Divergence.

As you can see on the daily chart, price has been making new closing highs, while the MACD has not. Simple to see, yet effective.
Our MACD is totally different (histogram). Same settings on daily (12,26,9) as you, right ?

I thought you only looked at MA and not the histogram when playing with divergence, is this wrong ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Measure twice, cut once
  • #178
  • Apr 22, 2008 8:41pm Apr 22, 2008 8:41pm
I look at both and yes I'm using a standard MACD. Divergence isn't something I would use to enter a trade, just something to keep on my rader.

EUR/USD is going to turn. Not today and I can't give you the day yet, but it's going to happen.

I don't believe the ECB will be raising rates at their next meeting and I'm sure they see that as a dangerous policy in the current economic enviorment. Of course, they will be plenty hawkish and I believe the ECB doesn't mind seeing the Euro go higher (as long as it happens in an "orderly" way) primarily because currency appreciation is one of the tools used to fight inflation, which they are not going to give up at this time because it's probably the only tool they have.

You might argue that oil is appreciating in part because the Dollar is falling, which means oil will keep rising as long as the ECB appears to want the Euro to appreciate.
  • #179
  • Apr 24, 2008 2:51am Apr 24, 2008 2:51am
If anyone who actually has a clue in EW would like to chime in, please do so, I'd like to get an idea of what big count they have.
Might be it's V of III and I missed one subcount.
Should be pretty feasible(that the waveset isn't complete I mean), unless someone believes we won't ever go above 1.6.

This is just some theorizing to get some minimum retracement targets for the upcoming trades and you can take this as serious or ridiculous as you'd like.

Personally, regardless of EW, I believe the strong, trending moves have created one of the most fragile wobbling towers, and moves down will therefore most likely move just as easily as those up.

Point being, I suspect a move from 1.6 -> 1.5 could be coming, together with all consequences for all EURxxx pairs.

I like crazy(and big) thoughts, so here we go.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_080424_pondering.gif Size: 26 KB
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #180
  • Apr 24, 2008 4:04am Apr 24, 2008 4:04am
Hi SL, here is what I think might be happening from an Elliot ponit of view, btw notice the monthly rsi close last month telling sign)
I think that the Euro had just entered a correction( minor count supports this view as of now) to ve exact a 4th wave correction within the 5 wave advance from 1.1638, since wave 2 of the same degre (II) was a shallow correction, \i would expect a wave IV to be sharp, most likely a zigzag. You are right, first support is not untill 1.4967 that is my first target, well actually 1.5000 even, simply because the market tends to like round numbers. I will start to look for reversals around 1.4500-4750 areas, although it should be visible at that time if we are done or not, 1.4000 or slightly above is not out of the question in my mind but perhaps a little too farfetched at the moment, hope this helped
Gene
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