StewartR - I want my trading to be boring.

The EuroUSD and USDCHF trades both closed as winners. 1R winners.


Seems pointless to count pips because some stops are 190 pips away and others are 30 pips away and the risk is the same.

In this round I've had 19 trades; 12 winners (64%) and 7 losers (36%).

Two new positions (trades 20 and 21) have been triggered but I've got other commitments so I wont post these just now. I'll post all the charts tomorrow or later today if I get time.

this was one of the losses I posted a few posts back.
The 4 hour set up was solid: trend (21>55>89), pull back (stoch at extremes) and trigger (bullish outside bar).

What I did well: I took the trade. Trading is about "trading". There's no point talking about it....you have to pull the trigger, knowing that anything can happen and that I have no idea what will happen on this trade.

What I could have done better:
Interesting that this trade was a loss. The daily trend was also up but the stoch was NOT pulling back. It seems this is true of other losses too. There would be many hours of work to test this out. I dont want to say 'always check the daily' if it means you only get two trades per month.

I may get back into this trade. Perhaps I'll get another signal at the close of the current candle.

Eurocad. Entered on a break of the 2 bars that looked like pin bars.
Stopped on the last big red candle.

I have a pending order to get back in as the signal remains.

What I did well: Again - I took the trade. I followed the rules.
What I could have done better - I could have waited for a better entry trigger. The price action was not very good. This was a B trade. But many many B trades still make money.

again - daily trend was up too (but the stoch was not oversold)

Same as the other two cad orders.
You can see I still have a buy stop in place to get back in.

What did I do well? Trend - yes. Pull back - yes. Price action......definitely not the best. This was a B trade too.

What could I have done better: I could have waited for a better price action bar (outside bar, pin bar etc). My error was to enter on inside bars and direction less bars. That is not always bad (the trend and pull back are often enough), but it seems that losses often have poorer price action bars.

1R win.
What I did well: followed the rules. Clear uptrend. (Both daily and 4 hr which is a bonus when they are both going for it). Clear pull back (stoch). Good price action (hammer, pin bar, indecision bar).

What I could do better: This was a well executed trade. (Perhaps I could have passed it over to wait for better price action.....but I have found it best to enter stop orders and walk away from the trading platform.

There are two winning trades shown here.

USDCHF.

What did I do well: I let the trade run to its target point. After three losses in a row I was feeling like I wanted to take profit before the trade reached its target. But this system works because it has a 1:1 risk reward ratio. (Any trade that gets close to the profit target almost always hits the profit target....according to my testing).

So I am proud of myself that I saw it moving in my direction and walked away and left it to play itself out.

Actually - the journal has been a good distraction to keep me from tinkering with trades.

What could I have done better: This was a well executed trade - I'm happy with it (just as I am happy with the execution of the losing trades).

....woulda coulda shoulda - just show a lack of faith in your system. If you have woulda/coulda/shoulda in your vocabulary, then you need to do more back/forward testing.
____________________________

My last two trades were 1R winners.
But the markets have continued in the direction of the trade.

Some people would say I shouldn't have exited. Well why not exit? Why should I risk profits to let profits run? This system is 1:1 risk:reward with a good win rate. The bonus is that it works in BOTH trending and ranging markets.

I have learned that trading is all about compromises and trade offs. There is no best way to trade.

For every winning trade we can say "I should have or could have".
For every losing trade we can say "I should have or could have".
For every missed trade we can say "I should have or could have."

So there's no point saying "shoulda woulda coulda". Just find a system with a positive expectancy and take a thousand trades to realise that expectancy.

This system takes so little time to execute (no more than 10 minutes every 4 hours).

If I want to catch 20R wins, then I'll look for a different system to do it.

This system pays 1:1.

.....woulda shoulda coulda .....are expressions of a lack of faith in your system

Analysis of the last 39 trades showed "A" quality trades with 12wins 2 losses.
A+B quality trades resulted in 20wins and 5 losses.
C trades (where I jumped the gun) produced 3w and 7losses

I will start a "ROUND 3" next.
The goal is to take A trades only.

I will define A trades in the next post - in a few hours time.

(PS - I will continue this thread for at least another 20 trades. I figure I may as well do it until there is nothing more for me to add.

I am really learning here. I see that trading is about discipline. Don't take a trade because it looks good. Take a trade because it screams "take me!". Only trade the best setups.
Reviewing my last 39 trades I see that some setups were more 'textbook' than others.

In the last 4 weeks there have been 14 A trades I have taken. 12 wins and 2 losses.

At 2% risk, thats 20% return in 30 calendar days.

The B trades produced 8 wins and 3 losses.
The C trades were terrible and showed a lack of commitment to excellent trading. 3 wins and 7 losses and frankly, I couldnt see why I even took the trades. I must have traded them because I wanted action, or some other psychological need expressing itself.

So now I'll trade 2 accounts.
2% risk on $10k account trading 'A' trades.
A $1k account to trade B trades.
Why trade B trades at all?
Perhaps I shouldn't trade them. But sometimes its hard to tell if its an A or a B. If I am not sure, I'll call it a B trade and trade it in my smaller account. Only A trades will be traded here.
I have large risk capital with which to trade, but I am only using this $10k account until I have ironed out the bugs in myself.

All A and B trades met the following criteria:
1. 21>55>89 ema on the 4 hour chart and
2. Stoch was at extreme on 4 hour chart and
3. Price action (pin bar or outside bar) on 4 hour chart.

EVERY A and B trade had the 4 hour trend + pull back + price action.

BUT all A trades, without exception also had agreement from the daily and 1 hour charts.

For example: A trades also had stoch on the 1 hour and daily in agreement with the 4 hour. Or they had the trend in agreement with the 1 hour and daily.

So from this point for the next 20 trades I will only post A trades.

I took 14 of these last month. I expect another 14 over the next 30 days too.

(see table and chart below, for example)

A few years ago I spent 4 days with a full time S&P trader. He was in his 70s and has traded every day for 40 years (on the floor for decades). He took us through his system and showed us what he did.

He used classic indicators (cci, stochastics, fibs, keltner bands, moving averages, williams %R) on 15 minute charts. WHen he had a confluence of indicators he would enter. Well at least that's what he said he was doing...... but then we watched him trade for 2 days and.......

...he was not taking even half the signals from his indicators. I asked him 'why not'. He said he would only take an 80:20 trade. He would not trade a 70:30 trade or anything less than an 80:20.

So I asked what's as 80:20?
He said "its when I 'feel' that theres an 80% chance of winning". I was devasted. After hearing his sytem, then watching him trade, I was convinced it was really just gut feel. He certainly could not verbalise what made a trade an 80:20 trade.

Well - I am committed to only taking 80:20 trades for the next 20 trades and guess what? I have seen 2 "B" trades in the last 24 hours. But no "A" trades yet.

So I wait. I mow the lawn. I wash the car. I fix the leak in the skylight. I visit my extended family. I do anything and everything......EXCEPT take a B trade.

A trades or nothing.

So a few years after spending 4 days with an old timer.....I now understand what he means when he says he only takes 80:20 trades which works out to about 2 trades a day on 15 minute candles. (Well I trade 4 hour candles.... so it might be a while before I get to post again). :-)

Your journal is a nice learning place, because we watch you place trades, give reasons why you entered the trade and evaluate your trading strategy accordingly. I always stop by here, because i learn something new everytime i look here. Keep up the good work and on another note, are you now trading fulltime?

Hi FX,
Thanks again for stopping in.

I am morphing from someone who takes trades, into being a trader. My attitudes and 'thinking' are developing well.

Yes I am a ful time trader now. I gave up my day job. I have no income other than from trading. I have been quite successful in my previous occupation and dont need to work for 2 years or so and I have a large $ amount to trade.

But that doesnt mean that I am trading full clip. I am still not quite 'there'.
This is what I am learning. Trading is 99% waiting for the best setups and that flyes in the face of what I used to think trading was all about. Its not about trading frantically and taking lots of trades. Its about waiting, stalking and only acting when the odds are overwhelmingly in my favour.

So I continue to trade just 2% of a $10k account until I have corrected my psychology.

I know I am getting close to trading 1% of my full equity, but will not do it until I have demonstrated beyond all reasonable doubt that I can trust myself to behave as a professional trader, no matter what the market presents to me.

Major shifts in my mindset over few months since trading full time:
1. I am totally responsible for the success of myself as a trader. "I" am the most important factor in success. (Not the system, not the markets, its entirely determined by me).
2. My job is to consistently trade only my exact and precisely defined system, with sound position sizing so I can realise the positive expectancy, and not trade anything else.
3. I finally understand what professional traders mean when they say that "discipline" is the key. It takes discipline to "only trade the very very best setups".

(Interestingly, when I look at the best setups (as defined a few posts ago), they almost always run well beyond 1:1 Reward to Risk. So I may have some more work to do there.)


In the mean-time, I continue to wait for the next "A" setup.

Thanks again for stopping in - I appreciate the PMs I am receiving from everyone and the occasional post.

Best wishes
Stewartr

Hy this is my first post on FF,but i watch the forum for about some time.I like your sistem very much,and much more i like your discipline.From my point of view that is the basic element in trading,to stick to your sistem and take only the best trade that you see.Whan you succeed to flow your rules your all most there.Good luck to you and i'm watching close your topic

Stewart ,

Do you have certain pairs you do or do not trade? (Is the spread a factor?) (Intra-day volatility?)

Also, it seems as you don't pay much heed to Jacko's "round number" and 50% Fib? Is this correct? If so, this must be in keeping with KISS (which I myself prefer). (Upon thinking about this, it is clear to me that you do not use these - rather go on the stoch/ema picture.)

I am interested what your decision will be about adapting a change in your R:R if the trade will be a clear "A" trade. From the looks of the past trades you've posted, the winners do seem to keep running.........But, on the other hand you have already defined your goal as being "small but consistent" so definitely a tough call here....

Hope you are having a great weekend and are fresh and ready to go for an awsome, DISCIPLINED, week ahead!

Enjoying your thread, grateful, and wishing you many more wins than losses,

Andy



ps. You had earlier experimented with using the AH (anit-hedge method of Mr. Jackson -"Jacko"), are you still using this? Or perhaps it is a matter of entering a second order as thre trend finally comes back up/or down as per the case?

Stewart,

Sorry, one more thing:

Do you place trades on Sunday before market opens (based on setup from last friday)? Or do you like to allow some room for the trend to establish itself for the week?

Best,

Andy

(Also, I know you don't like indicator questions but here goes....does it matter to you if Stoch is based on Simple or Exponential?)

Hi guys, I've been out all day. I'll reply later today.

Hi everyone, I"ve been watching the markets every 4 hours. No A trades yet. So no action. I keep waiting. Did some backtesting from October to March. "A" trades showed 32 wins and 2 losses. Only tested 3 pairs. More testing yet to do.

Hi Andy_wpo, Thanks for visiting. I am certain my system is robust. I am also certain that the financial results will be better if I take out all the B trades (even though a B trade still has a positive expectancy).

Hi Qui Gon, 1. I trade all pairs that my broker IBFX offers. But something I will have to look at is correlation. It seems that do get entries at the same time on different pairs. But I also get many entries at different times too.....so for now....I continue to trade everything. 2. No I dont pay much attention to Jackos round numbers. The more I look at them, the more I see price stopping 10 20 or 30 pips from them. 3. Risk:reward. You made a good observation. WHen I trade ALL trades (including B trades) it is clear that the trailling stop does not help me. It is also clear from my backtesting that many of the A trades would really benefit from the trailing stop. I will be revisiting this in the days ahead. For now, I continue to have a 1:1 target. 4. Antihedge strategy. I have used this a few times with Jacko's entries and found them to be useful more from a psychological point of view, rather than a pip point of view. I've had some decent losses with them, and they only work when there is a very strong trend. It seems that whenever an antihedge trade is placed, I am already in the trade from my normal system (at a better price) anyway. Best wishes Stewart