Malaysia

They said... "HARD To CLIMB... So EASY To FALL".

EurUsd .... Touched 100% Retracement which is also happened to be the weekly pivot.

GbpUsd... after making the SHOOTING STAR /Doji at H1... testing the HIGH of PSYCHOLOGICAL Resistance at 2.0000... steep Retracement is occuring testing 61.8% Fibbo (RED) already.

Binggo!!! 100% Retracement!!!

that's true bro...i agree with Sham. go through page per page....in the end you'll know...like i do....BEST OF LUCK!!!

Wow... just back and found out my 1.59 position had been stopped out, EU jump down the building!

Any idea what cause EU free fall ?

Just read the post above yours You can always flip back.

Thanks shamx

From Bloomberg:

April 18 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar rose the most against the euro in more than two weeks as Citigroup Inc.'s first- quarter revenue beat analysts' estimates, fueling speculation financial firms will weather credit market losses.

really 'terpegun'... lost words..

Friday is volatile dan kacau bilau, especially from 5 pm onwards. Some retrace may take place after 12 midnite. Let's see how it goes.

But, it's a nice one if you know how to trade today. For Friday, timing is a factor, i.e. from London open till close. I close EC before prayer today. London open, it goes up to 150 pips until now. Seldom this happen.

A nice day for education.http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Yes, it has indeed retraced.

Any prediction about the eurusd, usdjpy, usdchf pairs at the opening next week? The stock market has rallied for a couple of days to nice high. Is it time that it might retrace and turn down a bit?

Hey guys, i believe many of you are not around.. it was so chaos on the last 2 days for market generally.. its like i can feel whats going to be happened and works again safe me from this battle..

here is my synchronize on the last 2 days, its only now im capable of doing this analysis...

Back on geepy, ive got 2 positions earlier,

This is where its all begin.. Ive seen the price stuck 3,4 times around 198.50 support and experience tell me, something big might be happened.. im not that good in FA so i do redrawn my channel and here is my finding..



The price that ive mention is actually formating a CS formation that will lead the price to boost up! id chances to close my post on BE but do to time constraint, i forgot to change my SL to BE and im facing 150 pips REDS on both post before i reentry on long basis...

My 1st and only enter is at 204.00 when its hitting my flag formation on tf30 (i always using the flag to get whether buy from dip or sell from bounce line post) so i think the price is among the best..

Im holding that position without TP(mostly on PA pattern and when the price is breaking the 204.50 level with great momentum, i know the next resistance is around 207.50 line and its absolutely on the top of the redrawn trendline.. i closed my position at 207 line since im not going to bring it on the next week and finally close my week with 150pips GREEN.. such a luck i guess.. amin..

and for cable, my sell positions earlier at 1.9740 stuck and incapable for breaking 1.9700 line and the flag is breaking to the north and against i redrawn my cable and here is what i get.. strong price rejection again at 1.9650... duhhh!!!



i closed that trade on RED 50pips. again after breaking the flag i use to enter on LONG after seeing market direction at 1.9750 and only closed last night around at 1.9970 after seeing a few times price rejection.. thats cool 220 pips GREEN and overall i made 170 GREEN..

I just dont know but i guess i must be lucky when spotting this thing and i believe this is the price that id after many failure before, keep dragging into debt, experience like this is something valuable to have..

Id blown my own acc, people acc and now im gaining some strength to combat in this extremely hazardous market.. its only never say no for this.. im planning of becoming a full time trader but i love my jobs.. it keeps me busy and i guess this is also helping me to make some analysis as well as reminding my EQ to the better level..

have a good weekend! shopping lagi lah!

I will post some, subject my liberty to delete later (do not want to be accused of putting copyrighted materials, you know).

As always, the necessary notice:

Quote

Disliked

Disclaimer:

What to look for in the week ahead [Emphasis mine]



Banks lose billions more, but ‘the worst is past’; don’t buy it

Despite all indications that the US economy is slowing even further, US stocks and risk appetites in general have rebounded to their best levels for the year. Additional multi-billion dollar write downs and losses at major financial institutions are apparently no match for investors who buy the going wisdom that the ‘worst is behind us.’ The same people who said the sub-prime meltdown was contained 6-9 months ago are now touting the end of the financial crisis even as they announce major 1Q losses and additional job cuts. At the same time, credit rating agencies are still downgrading individual RMBS (residential mortgage-backed securities) issues, which will necessitate ongoing write downs of assets held on financial firms’ balance sheets and continue to erode capital. No doubt, the government-led bailout of a major US investment bank and the opening of the Fed’s discount window to non-bank financial firms instilled confidence in Wall Street that the government would step in again if the situation deteriorated further. But what is happening behind the scenes?

LIBOR rates (London Interbank Offered Rate), the benchmark global lending rate between banks, have continued to edge up over the past several weeks, reaching new highs of between 75-100 bps above central bank rates. LIBOR rates typically average only 10-15 bps above central bank base rates, so the higher cost is symptomatic of banks that are continuing to hoard cash and remain reluctant to lend to each other. The British Bankers Association (BBA), the group that administers the daily LIBOR fixing process, even had to warn participating banks not to submit misleading pricing indications or face being banned from the process. The suspicion was that some banks had been low-balling the LIBOR rates they submitted, which are supposed to reflect rates at which each submitting bank is able to borrow in the inter-bank market. The rationale behind that was that no bank wants to be seen paying significantly more than others banks, out of fear it would be seen as a lack of confidence. In short, banks remain incredibly insecure regarding funding and market perceptions, which should be seen as a sign that the financial turmoil is far from over.


The Big Disconnect: Fundamentals weaken, but risk is back on

On the fundamental side, US economic growth data continues to soften (US Mar. housing starts/building permits fell more than expected; Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index fell to new lows; weekly jobless claims rose again, as did continuing claims, which are just shy of the 3.0 mio mark; and Mar. retail sales ex-gasoline were flat) even as inflation pressures persist. Fed speakers this week mostly belonged to the hawkish camp (Plosser, Fisher, and Lacker) and true to form they cautioned that additional rate cuts may stoke inflation and jeopardize long-term US prospects. Interest rate markets, aided by the higher LIBOR rates, took the bait and began pricing out anything more than a 25 bp rate cut on April 30, and even pricing in a tiny chance of a steady rate. Anecdotal information continues to pour in that US consumers are in deep retrenchment, which is fueling a vicious spiral lower in consumer spending and incomes. The four pillars of a potentially significant US downturn remain in place and show no sign of improving: 1) high and rising energy prices pinching disposable incomes; 2) softening labor markets raising job insecurity and depressing confidence and spending; 3) home prices falling, reducing household wealth and aggravating mortgage insolvencies; and 4) credit conditions remain tight with no sign banks are about to re-open the spigots.

Despite this weak backdrop, stock markets and risky assets have posted sizeable gains for the week, which I view as a serious ‘disconnect’ to reality. A fair amount of this investor enthusiasm appears born of excessive pessimism, along the lines that ‘it’s been so bad, it just has to get better.’ Bank earnings data was sobering, to put it mildly, and I suppose with the worst fears not being realized, there was some cause to celebrate. But I continue to view such rebounds in risk appetites as short-term in nature and as opportunities to sell risky assets on strength. The near term resistance levels, which must hold or a larger rebound is indicated, are 1400 in the S&P 500, 104.60/105.00 in USD/JPY; and 164.80/165.40 in EUR/JPY. Next week’s US data contains a number of housing reports and they should serve as a reminder that we are in the middle of a downturn, not at the end of one.


Market tests G7 resolve on USD weakness/EUR strength

The market has so far largely ignored the G7’s shift in currency language, which implicitly called for a stronger USD and a weaker EUR, with EUR/USD set to close the week at the same level as before the G7 statement. True, EUR/USD is finishing the week well below its highs after a vicious shake-out on Friday, but that appears to be more the result of excessive long EUR/USD positions from very high levels. US dollar sentiment remains weak and I continue to expect another try to take out the 1.6000 level next week. I look to build EUR/USD long positions between 1.5640/1.5740 on remaining weakness, and to take profit on strength between 1.60-1.61. EUR/USD’s upside is in jeopardy if we see a break below trendline support at 1.5620/30. Eurozone officials will continue to complain if the EUR appreciates further and their verbal intervention seems likely to continue to unsettle short-term traders, offering additional opportunities to buy EUR/USD on dips. But I would note US Tsy. Sec. Paulson’s post-G7 press conference comment in which he cited the shift in FX language as an ‘acknowledgement’ of market changes, rather than a threat of intervention. Until the US appears on board for intervention to stem the USD decline, EU officials will be on their own. The risk of unilateral European intervention is not small and increases greatly if EUR/USD breaks above 1.6000, which is why I recommend taking partial profit on EUR/USD longs above 1.6000 at the minimum. USD/JPY and the JPY-crosses have traded directly higher in line with gains in other risky assets like stocks and are representative of decreased risk aversion. As I’ve suggested above, I don’t expect the rebound in risk appetites to be sustained very much longer, with the likely catalyst weak US housing data next week. Concerning the G7 statement, the gain in EUR/JPY is an even greater ‘in your face’ to EU complaints, with EUR/JPY having gained around 5 yen since before the G7 statement. If the Europeans are concerned about the strength of the EUR against the USD, they’re even more concerned about the strength of the EUR against Asian currencies, of which the JPY is the most obvious. From Japan, exporters are increasingly likely to be selling USD strength into the 105.00-107.00 area, suggesting strength seen this week may be the extent of the recovery in USD/JPY. A daily close back below 103.00 would be a sign of a rejection. EUR/JPY has significant trendline resistance drawn off the highs dating back to last July and a break above 165.50 would be needed to see gains extend further. The whole outlook for a top in USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and other JPY-crosses hinges on risk appetites turning back to risk aversion, which will require a piece of negative real-world news.


Key data and events to watch: Bank of Canada rate decision

On Tuesday morning, the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision. The market expectation is for a 50 bp rate cut, from 3.50% to 3.00%, with a small minority favoring only 25 bps to 3.25%. Given the ongoing deterioration in the US and the expectation that it will last longer than expected, with greater negative implications for Canadian growth ahead, I’m inclined to expect 50 bps of easing. Without a doubt, Canadian data has held up significantly better than would normally be expected, but recent reports have shown a sharp turn to the downside and inflation remains benign. More than anything, the BOC rate decision is about insurance—cutting more aggressively now to limit the ultimate downturn, which is still to materialize. In terms of the market reaction, I think the CAD will probably only weaken slightly going into the decision and seems poised to strengthen afterwards on the basis that additional rate cuts may not be needed.

US data begins on Tuesday with March existing home sales, Feb. OFHEO house price index, and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index, with declines expected all around. Wednesday sees only weekly mortgage applications. Thursday sees March durable goods orders, weekly initial unemployment/continuing claims, and March new home sales. Friday finishes with final-April Univ. of Michigan consumer sentiment. No Fed speakers are scheduled to address the economic outlook or interest rates due to the blackout period ahead of the April 30 FOMC meeting.

Eurozone data begins in earnest on Wednesday with March French consumer spending, but the preliminary-April manufacturing and services PMI’s for France, Germany, and the Eurozone will be highlighted. Thursday sees April French business confidence and the April German IFO survey of corporate sentiment. Friday will see only March German import prices.

Japanese data begins on Monday morning with the Feb. Tertiary (Services) Industry index followed by the final Feb. Leading Economic Index in the afternoon. Wednesday morning sees only the March trade balance of note. Thursday morning sees only the Feb. All-Industry Activity index. Friday morning sees April Tokyo CPI and March national CPI reports.

UK data begins on Sunday at midnight local UK time with April Rightmove house prices. On Wednesday morning, the Bank of England minutes from the April 10 meeting, at which the MPC cut rates 25 bps, will be released along with BBA mortgage lending data for March. Thursday morning sees March retail sales and the CBI (Confederation of British Industry) quarterly industrial trends survey. Friday finishes with the advance 1Q GDP estimate, forecast to show a 2.6% YoY increase, down from the prior 2.8%.

Daily Technical Analysis
Posted: 4/18/2008 9:48:57 AM

Friday, April 18, 2008 - New York Update - 1:38 PM EST Party on Wayne! The dollar and stock indexes are substantially higher across the board. Citibank reported Q1 earnings of “only” a $5 billion loss with no additional surprises, roughly half of the prior quarter's $10 billion loss. Profits of US multi-nationals such as Google and IBM beat analyst's expectations, so the USD and equity markets are enjoying a nice rally. One of the major contributing factors to the better than expected earnings is a weak dollar boosting overseas profits. So wait a minute ... Citi lost “only” only $5B, and overseas profits are stronger from a weaker dollar, so in response to that traders buy dollars? How do you think this is going to end?! Anyway, back to reality. Though I didn't issue an official trade plan, the levels put forth yesterday turned out to be critical turning points. USDJPY broke free from 102.60 resistance and didn't look back until 104.50. EURGBP also broke down from 0.7960 and put in a bottom about 90 points later. I am watching EURUSD closely down here at 1.5700. After about 3 hours of analysis I have narrowed the possibilities down to only 2. And they are Euro is either going higher from here or lower from here. Thanks, Todd, that helps.
In all seriousness, 1.5700 is the key to coming sessions. I have laid out 2 scenarios. The first calls for a completed ending diagonal at last night's 1.5983 high, that gave birth to our newly found downtrend pointing to a destruction of 1.5700 support level. A move below 1.5500 becomes our new target.




The second scenario, which is my preferred count, lables last night's move down as the completion of c-of-4, with another 3-wave effort higher to complete the diagonal 5th wave somewhere above 1.6000. I am going to see how things shakeout before putting anything to work. Enjoy the weekend.

Euro At A Standstill as 1.60 Fails Yet Again

Written by Boris Schlossberg, Senior Currency Strategist

Trading may remain choppy as we go in to the week-end as US calendar is barren. Having successfully defended the 1.60 level this week, euro bears may be feeling that sentiment has finally turned their way but if US data proves disappointing next week, the run for 1.60 may not be over.

Euro: Is the Rally Over?
Written by Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist
One of the biggest questions in the currency market right now is whether or not the rally in the Euro is over. Despite selling off for the second day in a row, the EUR/USD has recovered nearly half of its losses. Economic data has been holding up well in the face of growing inflationary pressures. Producer prices in Germany grew 0.7 percent last month, which was the fastest pace of growth in 15 months. This has raised red flags throughout the ranks of the European Central Bank. Weber, Liikanen and Hurley all warned about how important it is to anchor inflationary expectations. In the week ahead, Eurozone data will shed more light on the health of the region’s economy. Are the individual countries within the Eurozone continuing to weather the storm? Service and manufacturing sector PMI reports are due for release along with the German IFO report. Analyst sentiment as reflected by the ZEW survey tumbled and it will be interesting to see if business sentiment will follow suit. Meanwhile Switzerland will be reporting producer prices and the trade balance. Price growth is expected to grow at a steady pace but the trade surplus should narrow.

Will Dollar Strength Continue?
Written by Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist
The US labor market is still in trouble and in a few weeks, this will come back to the haunt the US economy.

As in attachment
By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of DailyFX.com
20:00 GMT

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/chartin...540005557.html

Written by Jamie Saettele, Technical Currency Strategist
The Yen has fallen hard and fast. USDJPY nearly reached 105 and EURJPY 165 today. Still, when viewed in the proper context, the argument is strong that the recent Yen decline (Yen crosses’ advance) is simply a big countertrend move.

Hello boys and girls….
I have worked on an idea of the system of Malaysia ..... added to line on 50 QQE… task is interesting ..... what you thoughts!… do you like!?!?!?




We organize a chat live in MSN or Skype for Live trading! I have read your live trading, he would like to participate to but I cannot move from Italy, for me it's possible only in Live chat........

Bye and a good week end for all...............