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Daily Cable Analysis

  • #3,341
  • Jan 23, 2007 11:10am Jan 23, 2007 11:10am
Quoting Northpro
Monarch...where's the "Turkey" avatar?....was starting to like that!

Cheers
NP
How is this Avatar, looks sad, but it could be a turkey in disguise.

Cheers all around.
  • #3,342
  • Jan 23, 2007 11:13am Jan 23, 2007 11:13am
Quoting monarch
How is this Avatar, looks sad, but it could be a turkey in disguise.

Cheers all around.
Holding tight below 9850... Your 5M 250EMA seems achievable....
  • #3,343
  • Jan 23, 2007 11:14am Jan 23, 2007 11:14am
Quoting cesarnc
Who would ever imagine to see 9846 acting as "support"?
How many times in this past 2 months have we seen this happen.

Resitance keeps price down, price returns and pushes back at the resistance, then it gives way for the price to pass by.

Then the price comes back again, and this time it does not resist, but actually says, Hey I support you, please don't push me so hard.

Kind of like the bully on the playground theory, you get tired of being pushed around and you realize I better just get along and show my support for this guy or else.

Cable has pushed the USD all over the playground for some time now, and the Dollar is tucking its head, and is saying "you go right ahead."
  • #3,344
  • Jan 23, 2007 11:21am Jan 23, 2007 11:21am
Yeah... But this very morning we're talking about the "possibility of reaching 9846" then down to the 97ss....

In every pip it went up in the 98ss I was seeing the ghost of the instant retracement - like in the 9777 / 9772...

Never happened.... whatta day.

Quoting monarch
How many times in this past 2 months have we seen this happen.

Resitance keeps price down, price returns and pushes back at the resistance, then it gives way for the price to pass by.

Then the price comes back again, and this time it does not resist, but actually says, Hey I support you, please don't push me so hard.

Kind of like the bully on the playground theory, you get tired of being pushed around and you realize I better just get along and show my support for this guy or else.

Cable has pushed the USD all over the playground for some time now, and the Dollar is tucking its head, and is saying "you go right ahead."
  • #3,345
  • Jan 23, 2007 11:27am Jan 23, 2007 11:27am
Quoting monarch
How many times in this past 2 months have we seen this happen.

Resitance keeps price down, price returns and pushes back at the resistance, then it gives way for the price to pass by.

Then the price comes back again, and this time it does not resist, but actually says, Hey I support you, please don't push me so hard.

Kind of like the bully on the playground theory, you get tired of being pushed around and you realize I better just get along and show my support for this guy or else.

Cable has pushed the USD all over the playground for some time now, and the Dollar is tucking its head, and is saying "you go right ahead."
if you think the dollar is getting tired of being pushed around I 'll tell you right now this two headed monster is wearing me out! lol
  • #3,346
  • Jan 23, 2007 11:27am Jan 23, 2007 11:27am
Quoting mtrmth
looks like 9840 is tough support right now monarch.
Quoting mtrmth

stupid question #1: does there always need to be a 61 fibo breach to have movement back in original direction??


I have studied the Fibo Setup and Breakdowns for some time now, and I would prefer a 61.8% Fibo level to be reache, but the 50% has sufficed in the continuation of price movement.

The case right now is 61.8% Fibo is at 1.9828 area, and I will be looking for this price to be reached in the retracement, even though it ireaches this point, that does not constitute a reversal.

Lets say the price continues down past the 61.8% level, you must then back up to the point where the actual move started from in previous time frames.

This is what I call sub-dividing (segmenting each time frame).

This is the reason I study each time frame with every setup and every completion to verify if the movement is finished, or if were still continuing in the same direction.

As of last week, the FIbo retracements were almost completely done on my Monthly Chart, and with the 1.9840-46 mark being reached - being the 100% Fibo retracement level from 12-1-06 High to the 1.9260 Low completed, I would say the Cable has a free pass to go either up or down now.

Looking at the weekly and monthly, it is showing a considerable move right now, with a continutation on the upwards still be in the making.
  • #3,347
  • Jan 23, 2007 11:28am Jan 23, 2007 11:28am
I got in two good limit orders, and bet almost 60% of my account balance, made a nice 12% overall profit so far and hope to make more once we hear about the BOE.
  • #3,348
  • Jan 23, 2007 11:34am Jan 23, 2007 11:34am
Quoting 59fender
if you think the dollar is getting tired of being pushed around I 'll tell you right now this two headed monster is wearing me out! lol


I was caught in the movement from thanksgiving with the mindset, this thing has to slow down, and it kept taking small profits from me.

Finally I gave it a rest, and watched for the High to take shape.

From there it fell right into my lap, and I traded each movement from that Setup.

That is where I am right now on the long term trades.

I need to see something showing high is reached, or a low. I can wait and make little profits until then, but once this thing is revealed, we go back to basic analysis, and calculate every move as we have for the past 6 weeks or so.

I am not worried too much for the moment, but Cable is showing its hand rather nicely right now.

Rest and Enjoy the Moment.
  • #3,349
  • Jan 23, 2007 11:34am Jan 23, 2007 11:34am
There is really good suport at 9742/9735 region

38.2 retrace from 9441
} nice confluence
61.8 retrace from 9634

Next Confluence levelof this sort is at 9682/9687 area

These levels will be very tough to break
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #3,350
  • Jan 23, 2007 11:43am Jan 23, 2007 11:43am
Fibo Setup is based upon

Low 1.9750
High 1.9914

38.2% - 1.9852 (retracement complete)
50% - 1.9832 (retracement complete - exact low 20 minutes ago)
61.8% - 1.9813 (watching now)

1.9813 is a key support that I mentioned at the London Open time.

Actually the price jumped up at the London Open to 1.9835, then came back down to 1.9812-13 and held.

This showed nice support at the Open, and price bounced upward from that point.
  • #3,351
  • Jan 23, 2007 11:51am Jan 23, 2007 11:51am
I watch every day during the Frank-London Open - and during the first
5 minute candle High, that price has played a role through the day of the US Session.

Today the London High was 1.9834, and the Frankfurt low was 1.9773.

These are several points I have penciled to keep an eye on for today.

The 1.9834 level is playing an active role as we speak, this would be the first key price I would be watching for as the remainder of the session completes. Then we watch once again as we approach the Frank-London open today.

With that said, and I have said too much already, I must sign off for a funeral, and a class I am teaching later in the afternoon.

Until the Frankfurt Open.

Good Trading to all the Peeps!
  • #3,352
  • Jan 23, 2007 12:26pm Jan 23, 2007 12:26pm
well, euro is finally heading the same direction as the pound, that should signal something. just need pound yen to get right and then we night find a real direction we can ride for some healthy pips. probably watitng for the boe to make some babbling noises and reaction will take place from what they hear. nap time, thanks for the 25 pips and we shall do better tomorrow!!
  • #3,353
  • Jan 23, 2007 12:48pm Jan 23, 2007 12:48pm
At the moment what we have here is a blow-off top, price rejection and (unless there's late buying) a bearish inverted hammer daily candlestick. Looks to me like end of rally. Should start heading down to long term fib retracements now.
  • #3,354
  • Jan 23, 2007 1:08pm Jan 23, 2007 1:08pm
Quoting monarch
Fibo Setup is based upon
Quoting monarch

Low 1.9750
High 1.9914

38.2% - 1.9852 (retracement complete)
50% - 1.9832 (retracement complete - exact low 20 minutes ago)
61.8% - 1.9813 (watching now)

1.9813 is a key support that I mentioned at the London Open time.

Actually the price jumped up at the London Open to 1.9835, then came back down to 1.9812-13 and held.

This showed nice support at the Open, and price bounced upward from that point.
Price just reached 1.9812-13 for the completion of the 61.8% Fibo setup as noted above.

Also on the Monthly, this price should be considered a support area for today's session, and possibly the week.

Price is going back up now, and has passed above 1.9832 50% fibo, this should act as support, next level to reach would be upwards to 1.9852.

Range for the day:
Low 1.9812-13
High 1.9850-52

Projection for the median range today is 1.9844 area.
  • #3,355
  • Jan 23, 2007 1:08pm Jan 23, 2007 1:08pm
oil is really starting to rally could be dragging the dollar lower...for now
  • #3,356
  • Jan 23, 2007 1:17pm Jan 23, 2007 1:17pm
Bubble extreme hit to low side and reversal confirmed with positive reversal forming on 400 tick.

Long @9827 looking for move on intial tp to 9867.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #3,357
  • Jan 23, 2007 1:21pm Jan 23, 2007 1:21pm
Monarch, the fibs did a good job today.

You have used a low of 19750, can you tell me why you have used this as the low and not any of the previous lower lows?

Thanks, and also for everyones input today, much appreciated. strada.
  • #3,358
  • Jan 23, 2007 1:22pm Jan 23, 2007 1:22pm
Quoting monarch

Price just reached 1.9812-13 for the completion of the 61.8% Fibo setup as noted above.

Also on the Monthly, this price should be considered a support area for today's session, and possibly the week.

Price is going back up now, and has passed above 1.9832 50% fibo, this should act as support, next level to reach would be upwards to 1.9852.

Range for the day:
Low 1.9812-13
High 1.9850-52

Projection for the median range today is 1.9844 area.
Another way of looking at it is that it's now going in waves down, retracing 61.8 each time, the last wave down being from 1.9870 to 1.9813 which just retraced slightly short of the 61.8 fib at 1.9848 and is now heading lower.
  • #3,359
  • Jan 23, 2007 1:34pm Jan 23, 2007 1:34pm
Quoting notouch
Another way of looking at it is that it's now going in waves down, retracing 61.8 each time, the last wave down being from 1.9870 to 1.9813 which just retraced slightly short of the 61.8 fib at 1.9848 and is now heading lower.
Exactly one way to look at it.

I had the 1.9812-13 as completion of the retracement 61.8%, then if I considered the price to be going down, I would count it the way your counting as above.

Or I can do a Fibo retrace of the Fibo completion on the upwards, with a projection of movement upwards, this would be more logical with the nice move upwards we have had since London open.

I would be timid to enter a Short right now, that is just my opinion, especially since we have dropped 100 pips from our high and met the 61.8% Fibo so quickly.

This seems to be telling me, hey, finish the cycle here, I am ready to move on.

But I have been known to be wrong occasionally. LOL
  • #3,360
  • Jan 23, 2007 1:42pm Jan 23, 2007 1:42pm
Quoting strada
Monarch, the fibs did a good job today.

You have used a low of 19750, can you tell me why you have used this as the low and not any of the previous lower lows?

Thanks, and also for everyones input today, much appreciated. strada.
I have many lines drawn on my charts, and this number looked to be the area where the price made its move from the median range into this upward range.

I keep track of every price support/resistance/and pivot areas I figure for my own calculations and then I look for a starting and ending point to confirm these locations.

This happened to be 1.9750, which also was close to 1.9754 price I have watched since market opened this week.
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