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Daily Cable Analysis

  • #3,321
  • Jan 23, 2007 10:21am Jan 23, 2007 10:21am
Quoting mtrmth
leugi, retrace to 9860, then down, or maybe 9865 before downward??
That looks reasonable based on 5 min fib levels I would say.
  • #3,322
  • Jan 23, 2007 10:24am Jan 23, 2007 10:24am
My concern isn't really to where right now but how long. We need this thing to hold on close below 9883 on 150 tick., however if it could pass some time to allow rsi 61.8 to come below that level before the end of the retrace, we will have a nice short term negative reversal formed. The 1600 tick turn is basically confirmed with strong resistance on close above 9894, yet if this retraces up too quickly on short term basis, I may exit my 2nd half portion at around b/e.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #3,323
  • Jan 23, 2007 10:25am Jan 23, 2007 10:25am
As for now, my first resis level though minor is 9865
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #3,324
  • Jan 23, 2007 10:26am Jan 23, 2007 10:26am
Quoting nikim
Can somebody please tell me what were the major factor(s) that casued the GDPUSD to move up to 1.9910 so quickly this morning?
The Cable has a memory.

Looking back at 1991 and 1992, this mark was also reached in 3 Monthly Candles.

This may be the stopping point, or it may be a remake of the 1978-80 Bull Run on the 30 year time frame.

But if you look at where we are today in relation to the 30 year chart, we are in the upper range of the median area.

I would think that the Cable would like to test its high at 2.0010 up to 2.0100 for old times sake.

Just my humble opinion.
  • #3,325
  • Jan 23, 2007 10:28am Jan 23, 2007 10:28am
on 1600 tick chart 9852 is a key level to close below if we are to expect some further movement south
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #3,326
  • Edited 10:36am Jan 23, 2007 10:31am | Edited 10:36am
Quoting Leugimp
9848 being tested, key level- price will probably retrace some before coming back below this level
I have 1.9828 as the 61.8% retrace from the move upwards.

This may hold support, that is if the 1.9844 - 50% Fibo is breached
(price has retraced to 1.9845 so far) the -50% Fibo is now 1 pip from completing, and it may be enough of a retracement to satisfy, before the upward move continues.

I will still be expecting the 61.8% to be tested this session today.

The price just reached below the 50% Fibo Retracement level at 1.9844 (low 1.9840 just no

High 1.9834 at the London Open (1st 5 Min. Candle) may show support along with the assistance of 1.9828 Fibo Level 61.8% mark.
  • #3,327
  • Jan 23, 2007 10:32am Jan 23, 2007 10:32am
Quoting monarch
The Cable has a memory.

Looking back at 1991 and 1992, this mark was also reached in 3 Monthly Candles.

This may be the stopping point, or it may be a remake of the 1978-80 Bull Run on the 30 year time frame.

But if you look at where we are today in relation to the 30 year chart, we are in the upper range of the median area.

I would think that the Cable would like to test its high at 2.0010 up to 2.0100 for old times sake.

Just my humble opinion.
I think it is only a matter of time, but i just feel that we need a retracement to build up strong positions and remove weak ones to add to momentum to push us over the hump.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #3,328
  • Jan 23, 2007 10:35am Jan 23, 2007 10:35am
Quoting Leugimp
If anyone got in on this one pt1 was achieved, stop goes to b/e and will hold until bubble comes to or below zero reading or 9827 bid, whichever comes first.

2nd exit will be at close of this 150 tick bar regardless of price for this bubble strat-

result
1st half = +40
2nd half = + 55 at the moment, to be closed in 100 ticks
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #3,329
  • Jan 23, 2007 10:38am Jan 23, 2007 10:38am
looks like 9840 is tough support right now monarch.

stupid question #1: does there always need to be a 61 fibo breach to have movement back in original direction??
  • #3,330
  • Jan 23, 2007 10:39am Jan 23, 2007 10:39am
Monarch...where's the "Turkey" avatar?....was starting to like that!

Cheers
NP
  • #3,331
  • Jan 23, 2007 10:42am Jan 23, 2007 10:42am
Who would ever imagine to see 9846 acting as "support"?
  • #3,332
  • Jan 23, 2007 10:43am Jan 23, 2007 10:43am
If it continues to drift down we could close the day with an inverted hammer - very bearish and possibly the start of a bigger retracement down to a long term fib level.
  • #3,333
  • Jan 23, 2007 10:43am Jan 23, 2007 10:43am
150 tick bubble very near opposit extreme, any confirmed turn at this level and I am out of this short and will look for a negative reversal to form to get back in at a better price, but only if contnued to be supported by longer term picture.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #3,334
  • Jan 23, 2007 10:45am Jan 23, 2007 10:45am
Quoting Leugimp
2nd exit will be at close of this 150 tick bar regardless of price for this bubble strat-

result
1st half = +40
2nd half = + 55 at the moment, to be closed in 100 ticks
2nd half actual exit @ 48 for +52 for original bubble move
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #3,335
  • Jan 23, 2007 10:52am Jan 23, 2007 10:52am
ok, i think we are back to normal type trading!! yeahhhhh !! i noticed in december that around europw close, there is at least a 30% retrace on gains or loses btween 11 and 12 est. today we had a 50% one. i have also noticed that it will go back up towards the daily high, then bounce down, up then down by around 3pm. has anyone else noticed this little trend, or are my eyes buggy from being up most of the night or is that not normal??? i am going to try this with real and fake money, but i can't seem to get my timing right in my past attempts. it isn't massive pips, but hey, if you can snag 45 or 50, better than nothing. cesar and leuigi, anyone else, do you see what i see?????
  • #3,336
  • Jan 23, 2007 10:53am Jan 23, 2007 10:53am
Quoting cesarnc
Who would ever imagine to see 9846 acting as "support"?
fib rsi level of 38.2 on 150 tick chart at moment in time if reverse engineered.

As for my position, I'm out 2nd half @ 9850 for +42 on 2nd half, will look to sell again on touch of 9890 or just below if stalls
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #3,337
  • Jan 23, 2007 10:56am Jan 23, 2007 10:56am
Quoting mtrmth
ok, i think we are back to normal type trading!! yeahhhhh !! i noticed in december that around europw close, there is at least a 30% retrace on gains or loses btween 11 and 12 est. today we had a 50% one. i have also noticed that it will go back up towards the daily high, then bounce down, up then down by around 3pm. has anyone else noticed this little trend, or are my eyes buggy from being up most of the night or is that not normal??? i am going to try this with real and fake money, but i can't seem to get my timing right in my past attempts. it isn't massive pips, but hey, if you can snag 45 or 50, better than nothing. cesar and leuigi, anyone else, do you see what i see?????
I used to trade daily and intraday binary options using exactly that theory but in the long run it didn't work out that well. Not much better than 50/50.
  • #3,338
  • Jan 23, 2007 10:58am Jan 23, 2007 10:58am
for any of you using tradestation, here is the reverse engineer rsi indicator

the initial setting would be for an RSI of 50
*******************************************************
inputs:
RSIValue( 50 ),
WilderTimePeriod( 14 ) ;
variables:
ExpPer( 2 * WilderTimePeriod - 1 ),
AUC( 0 ),
ADC( 0 ),
X( 0 ),
RevEngRSI( 0 ) ;
AUC = XAverage( IFF( C > C[1], C - C[1], 0), ExpPer ) ;
ADC = XAverage( IFF( C[1] > C, C[1] - C, 0), ExpPer ) ;
X = (WilderTimePeriod - 1 ) * ( ADC * RSIValue
/ ( 100 - RSIValue ) - AUC ) ;
RevEngRSI = IFF( X >= 0, C + X, C + X *
(100-RSIValue)/RSIValue) ;
Plot1[-1]( RevEngRSI ) ;
*****************************************************
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #3,339
  • Jan 23, 2007 10:58am Jan 23, 2007 10:58am
I see this as relevant...

Although options contacts cite no confirmed structures in place at 2.0, barrier defense is said to be becoming a factor in [CABLE] along with long termer selling in anticipation any break above the figure will prove short lived, as in the past. Profit taking has also been seen in the crosses, Gbp/Jpy dipping after reportedly repeated bidding from Japanese names during the day, while Eur/Gbp has lifted from reportedly good bid interest under 0.6540. Cable bids are reported to be in place under 1.9800 and then again at 1.9720. The Jan MPC minutes are the key focus for Weds, and anything less than an 8-1 majority vote for a hike may take some of the shine off the Pound as it would suggest another hike in Feb is not a foregone conclusion.
  • #3,340
  • Jan 23, 2007 11:05am Jan 23, 2007 11:05am
The minutes have been talked up. If they are hawkish then the market may not react too much because it's expected. But if they give no hint of further rate rises that could give the market an excuse for a sell off. Trying to pick tops is always dangerous in a market like this but if Cable starts tanking it will go down big time.
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