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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #2,861
  • Apr 16, 2008 5:10am Apr 16, 2008 5:10am

good trade. i misses out on that one.


bless

Quoting panhandler
Went long at 5780 based on 50% fib of 5913 on 4-10 and low of 5674 on 4-8, now at 5946 with 164 pip profit Thanks Jacko
  • #2,862
  • Apr 16, 2008 5:10am Apr 16, 2008 5:10am
Quoting Trumpcard
congratulations but i'm not sure i understand your trade. why the high and low from these dates? wouldn't you have been stopped out by the fall over the weekend?
I set the trade this morning and it got picket up, after the rise from the weekend price fall, 5780 was somewhat of a support on the 4h, and since it was also the area of the 50% fib, I said I figured we could only go up, which it did...
Live From Los Angeles
  • #2,863
  • Apr 16, 2008 5:18am Apr 16, 2008 5:18am
I feel like an idiot for closing my 1.5782 position amidst all the chatter, shud hav just rolled with it.
"Whether you think you can or can't, you're right." Henry Ford
  • #2,864
  • Apr 16, 2008 5:44am Apr 16, 2008 5:44am
Quoting geoffrod
I would hope that after a year of hanging with jacko and co that one might be able to go it alone, that is what i am hoping for.

but time will tell,

how about you earret????
I am currently not a member, hence why I am asking you guys but yes your right if you have learned all that you can learn in one year then you should be able to handle your own trading decisions.
  • #2,865
  • Apr 16, 2008 6:20am Apr 16, 2008 6:20am
I think the elephants either do not have enough power or did not react yet. If we break through 1.6000 then I think the elephants could not stop a wave of bugs or something else small

Bruce Lee said you can't hit water, be water
  • #2,866
  • Edited 8:09am Apr 16, 2008 7:21am | Edited 8:09am
Elephant is still sleeping. Resting before some dancing...
  • #2,867
  • Apr 16, 2008 8:19am Apr 16, 2008 8:19am
Quoting Scot Pippin'
I feel like an idiot for closing my 1.5782 position amidst all the chatter, shud hav just rolled with it.
Yeah I missed the action too. I went long at 5805 and then closed it at 5792 amidst all the chatter about ECB fears.

I was watching it rise thinking should I enter now, should I enter now.

Oh well.

I'm chalking this down to experience. Still looking at the chart in different time incremements to see what I should have been looking for.

Looks obvious now doesnt it!
  • #2,868
  • Apr 16, 2008 8:42am Apr 16, 2008 8:42am
Last night I was uncertain what to do also. I entered long at 5788 then immediately got out at 5789, because I was reading too much info. Then I thought let's march on the back of the elephants with a CT trade and got short at 5800. Then I remembered my own post where I stated that I didn't think CT trades make sense unless we made a lower low on the 4 hour (which as of last night meant we needed a new low at 5650 or even 5500 to confirm we were going down). So I closed that short trade at 5798.

"So which way does this baby want to go?" I then drew a simple trend line on the 4 hour connecting the lows of 5342, 5511, and 5671. I saw that trend line gave me support of around 5720. So if I was willing to use a 100 pip TSL, I should go ahead and get long.

I did at 5802 and now have my stop at 5879. I am going to continue to trail it at 90 pips (why 90? I do not know, it just feels right for me).

The speculation on the thread really had my head spinning, until I stepped back and just looked at the chart.

-Sean
  • #2,869
  • Apr 16, 2008 8:43am Apr 16, 2008 8:43am
Quoting takeprofit
Yeah I missed the action too. I went long at 5805 and then closed it at 5792 amidst all the chatter about ECB fears.

I was watching it rise thinking should I enter now, should I enter now.

Oh well.

I'm chalking this down to experience. Still looking at the chart in different time incremements to see what I should have been looking for.

Looks obvious now doesnt it!
Same here although I went long yesterday at 5800 and looking at the charts my stop at 5750 may have been hit prior to the climb today. So i could have lost a lot more than the 11 or so pips I gave away. Hard to stay out watching the rise but kept saying to myself 'don't chase the market, let the market to come to me'. Thanks for sharing.
  • #2,870
  • Apr 16, 2008 9:22am Apr 16, 2008 9:22am
Interesting view here on the 2H Chart - hindsight is great isnt it. Full size chart here - http://i30.tinypic.com/67jzaq.jpg and smaller one displayed.

The sweeping curve before todays rise looks almost poetic and to be honest too obvious to miss.

http://i28.tinypic.com/4j5sp.jpg
  • #2,871
  • Apr 16, 2008 9:34am Apr 16, 2008 9:34am
what does a sweeping cure mean in technical analysis terms?
  • #2,872
  • Apr 16, 2008 9:36am Apr 16, 2008 9:36am
its interesting to see that all the beginners here make the same mistake, including me. Instead of looking at the charts and follow the simple UPWARD Trendline which tells you only BUY BUY BUY, we were bearish these days due to all this non-sense talk on this thread about Euro fall and so on.
It was also incredibly difficult for me not to close the trades at 1.5900. But Im happy again that I didnt do it.

Except the gap on Monday, the euro has been staying above this beautiful trendline since February 6th!! And it will probably continue to do so for a while. Right now it seems that both americans and europeans are happy with the current level of euro, since there was no strong sell-off from 1.5960. remember what Jacko was saying once, that price doesnt like support and resistance. If it encounters resistance, the price will quickly move away from it. In our case, it didnt, so this tells me there is more to come before the long awaited retracement.

I am a buyer above 1.5750.
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #2,873
  • Apr 16, 2008 10:02am Apr 16, 2008 10:02am
Quoting Trumpcard
what does a sweeping cure mean in technical analysis terms?
It doesnt mean anything. I just thought it was interesting visually.
  • #2,874
  • Apr 16, 2008 11:09am Apr 16, 2008 11:09am
All this guessing as to what the market is going to do? Get back to basics..

1. buy/ sell ONLY in the direction of the major trend and
2. buy/sell on dips.(Use support lines to guide you as to price...also "round" numbers ... I also use the 50% Fib ratio..)
3. bank your profits
  • #2,875
  • Apr 16, 2008 11:50am Apr 16, 2008 11:50am
I guess when we try to think trouugh to justify an entry we can find as many justifications to take the trade as we can reasons not to take the trade. Hence the rule: Leave your brain at the door.

The recent gap down and then recovery made the 4hr chart confusing (at least to me) since we had a lower low and then a higher high. That made me very suspicious of a possible drop in the pair, but I was wroooong.

Now we have a confirmed higher high and higher low on the 4hr chart and a breakout of the all time high for the pair, so it is now obvious the charts are screamingly bullish.

There are many possible reasons that the future trades might hand us a loss;
1) ECB or coordinated central bank intervention
2) We have some overextended longer term charts, daily-weekly-monthly
3) We are at levels never seen before for the EUR/USD (some charts show fabricated highs if you look back far enough but this is an all time high for the Euro)

But when I look at the last few weeks I missed several oportunities because FEAR got the best of me.

In hindsight it seems so obvious that If I traded the system, I would have made many more pips. A loss is inevitable and expected so I will try not to let that FEAR of a loss get to me in the future. Besides with the A-H a loss is often turned into another win.

I would like to thank the more experienced traders and of coarse Jacko for guiding us along and would like to ask for a good slap in the face the next time I don't see what the charts are telling me.

Sorry if my prior post misled anyone, I am still learning and was just trying to contribute by giving my opinion.
Camptrader
  • #2,876
  • Edited 12:36pm Apr 16, 2008 11:59am | Edited 12:36pm
Quoting camptrader
I guess when we try to think trouugh to justify an entry we can find as many justifications to take the trade as we can reasons not to take the trade. Hence the rule: Leave your brain at the door.

The recent gap down and then recovery made the 4hr chart confusing (at least to me) since we had a lower low and then a higher high. That made me very suspicious of a possible drop in the pair, but I was wroooong.

Now we have a confirmed higher high and higher low on the 4hr chart and a breakout of the all time high for the pair, so it is now obvious the charts are screamingly bullish.

There are many possible reasons that the future trades might hand us a loss;
1) ECB or coordinated central bank intervention
2) We have some overextended longer term charts, daily-weekly-monthly
3) We are at levels never seen before for the EUR/USD (some charts show fabricated highs if you look back far enough but this is an all time high for the Euro)

But when I look at the last few weeks I missed several oportunities because FEAR got the best of me.

In hindsight it seems so obvious that If I traded the system, I would have made many more pips. A loss is inevitable and expected so I will try not to let that FEAR of a loss get to me in the future. Besides with the A-H a loss is often turned into another win.

I would like to thank the more experienced traders and of coarse Jacko for guiding us along and would like to ask for a good slap in the face the next time I don't see what the charts are telling me.

Sorry if my prior post misled anyone, I am still learning and was just trying to contribute by giving my opinion.
True there may be a coordinated CB intervention but that would give traders / long term investors to buy on the dips. The report out today clearly highlighted that inflation has increased in the EU. The ECB clearly stated that they will not lower rates. As a matter of fact, one would not be surprised if the ECB increased rates in the coming months.

The primary mandate of the ECB is to fight inflation and the secondary mandate is to promote growth only when inflation is under control. Whereas with the FED, the primary mandate is to promote growth, even if it means the rest of the world has to battle inflation.

So relax people, the major upward trend is not to be broken anytime soon. Buy on the dips and you'll be ok.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #2,877
  • Apr 16, 2008 12:31pm Apr 16, 2008 12:31pm
My trade from 5780 got stopped out while I was asleep because i tightened my TS when we neared the barrier of 1.59,but ended my day with a 147 pip trade... Did anyone get in @ 5900? I missed that one...
Live From Los Angeles
  • #2,878
  • Apr 16, 2008 2:46pm Apr 16, 2008 2:46pm
Hi Jacko,

I've spent the last few weeks reading this thread from the beginning.

Just wanted to say a big thank you for sharing your successful trading method and of your wisdom to guide us to the qualities of professionalism, proficiency, discipline and patience etc.

Also good to see many valuable contributions to this thread.

Aurum
Non illigitamus carborundum Are you ready for Zimbabweimargentina?
  • #2,879
  • Apr 16, 2008 2:53pm Apr 16, 2008 2:53pm
Well fellow traders this is a strange day indeed ? !!!

We have a 200 point Dow gain, which I would reckon should be bullish for USD, which is not, (russell, nikei, s & p up also)

$115 oil (bearish for USD)

Gold a little up, (bearish for USD)

Could these markets be a result of the G7 meeting?

These are very strange times,

If you do not think the sky is falling, look up..............
  • #2,880
  • Apr 16, 2008 7:32pm Apr 16, 2008 7:32pm
Quoting Bakuli
I second that ! Yes, how about you telling us how you approach the market now as a full time trader. I am very interested in how you look for your set-ups using Jacko's method and would appreciate your market views as well. It would be great if we get some input from you from those aspects ! Looking forward to your postings.

Happy trading !

Bakuli

I also agree and it would be great if the true Jacko turtles here would actually bless us with real trading insight (charts would be good) but perhaps they have some secrecy clause. LOL!

I'm kidding guys so don't get it twisted, but really you guys could easily put an end to the blind leading the blind scenario...
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