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5Min Intraday System

  • #3,561
  • Apr 15, 2008 8:52am Apr 15, 2008 8:52am
Look at the beautiful formation. Look at the rounding off as the price starts to descend... I entered when the price took out the previous bar's low. Price continues to fall... And JUST when I was about to move my stop to breakeven, the price suddenly reverses just enough to take out my stop, then continues down to hit my target.

Arggg....

I've been studying the 1 minute charts for the last week. If my rules were followed, there should be very few blips like this. I'll be willing to chalk this up to just bad luck if this doesn't happen too often...

My broker is an ECN too, so I don't suspect that they were the ones to take me out. But since they do provide level 2 data, I guess other traders can see my stop and they were the ones who did it?

Hmmm... We'll see how often this happens. I might have to formulate a different stop tactic...
Attached Image
Money missed is better than money lost
  • #3,562
  • Apr 15, 2008 8:59am Apr 15, 2008 8:59am
By the way, I posted the following question on the big "Forex Discussion" forum and was told that the answer depends on your strategy. So I wanted to ask the same question here. For the followers of this 5 min strategy, can you guys help me answer the questions below?

Quoting Dahlia
I've been trying to make a list of time when it's not your best interest to trade, be it because of bad liquidity, or because bad volatility (too little or too much). Was wondering if I can get some help completing this list.

Please keep in mind two things:

1) I'm on New York time, in case it's important.
2) I'm interested in the E$, the UJ, and the GU.

This is what I have so far (time, followed by reason not to trade)

Time of day: Sundays (Asian session) and Friday afternoons - little liquidity. Set ups tend to fail more often.
Major news (30 minutes before to 30 minutes after) - ridiculous spread. Too volatile for my newbie reflexes.

Hmmm... That's it. That's all I've got.

Anybody care to help me complete the list? I KNOW that there are days that forex veterans would rather just take off and go to the beach than watch their set ups fail again and again. What days are just bad for trading in general (and for newbies in particular?) I've heard someone mention something about "triple witching day?" What is that? Also, I hear that the NFP can give your account a heart attack, but... Is it enough to avoid 30 minutes before and after the NFP? Or would you take the whole day off? Are there any other days that it would be more advisable to take a mini vacation rather than trade?

...
Money missed is better than money lost
  • #3,563
  • Apr 15, 2008 9:00am Apr 15, 2008 9:00am
To be honest, I don't think any trader looks exactly at your position to take out your stop. If you don't trade at least 10M in this pair this is very, very unlikely.

Regards - Xaron
  • #3,564
  • Apr 15, 2008 9:18am Apr 15, 2008 9:18am
Quoting Xaron
To be honest, I don't think any trader looks exactly at your position to take out your stop. If you don't trade at least 10M in this pair this is very, very unlikely.

Regards - Xaron
Ha ha! Considering that I'm trading 1 micro lot while learning, I'd say you're probably right.

Thanks! That's comforting. I guess I'll just consider it a blip. According to my studies, it shouldn't happen too often...

By the way, Xaron. I like your new avatar much better. The old one gave me the creeps. I literally had to cover your avatar every time I read the thread. Much better now (Sorry. I'm a woman. I'm a bit squeemish)
Money missed is better than money lost
  • #3,565
  • Apr 15, 2008 9:26am Apr 15, 2008 9:26am
Thanks. Maybe I should use my real face for this avatar.

Regards - Xaron
  • #3,566
  • Apr 15, 2008 9:49am Apr 15, 2008 9:49am
Hi Xaron,
Nice trades, I'm wondering in general do you move stops to b/e +1 pretty fast, like after a few pips profit? It seems you did on that uj trade, is that how you are doing it, Id appreciate any of your notes on this, I took that uj trade as well but I let mine go all the way up to 101.10 then back down into profit, I used a 27 pip stop. Didn't feel to hot in the drawdown.

Thanks
  • #3,567
  • Edited 12:19pm Apr 15, 2008 11:56am | Edited 12:19pm
I'll try and post a few charts point out signals people should be looking for while waiting and evaluating for the pullback towards the war zone.

Today's chart is the triangle that you don't want (really) to see in a downtrend and then the pullback upwards towards the war zone.

The steady higher lows and resistance.

I hope it helps somebody.

Edit:

Chart 2 - the result of the second setup and why you should b careful during this type of pullbacks. Not high probability types of pullbacks but it could work out.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20080415 steep pullbacks jpeg.JPG Size: 97 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 20080415 steep pullbacks 2.gif Size: 33 KB
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #3,568
  • Apr 15, 2008 12:52pm Apr 15, 2008 12:52pm
Quoting Dahlia
By the way, I posted the following question on the big "Forex Discussion" forum and was told that the answer depends on your strategy. So I wanted to ask the same question here. For the followers of this 5 min strategy, can you guys help me answer the questions below?
Hi Dal

Just my opinion and observation trading this system now for more than 1 year and trading other systems for more than 4 years:

Originally Posted by Dahlia
I've been trying to make a list of time when it's not your best interest to trade, be it because of bad liquidity, or because bad volatility (too little or too much). Was wondering if I can get some help completing this list.

Please keep in mind two things:

1) I'm on New York time, in case it's important.
2) I'm interested in the E$, the UJ, and the GU.

This is what I have so far (time, followed by reason not to trade)

Time of day: Sundays (Asian session) and Friday afternoons - little liquidity. Set ups tend to fail more often.

Totally agree with you

Major news (30 minutes before to 30 minutes after) - ridiculous spread.

InterbankFX's spread increases usually only for a few minutes - I tend to wait untill the spread is back to normal (5-8 minutes after annoucnement)

Too volatile for my newbie reflexes.

Try the 1min chart with the same MAs but ignore the SMAangle and MACD indicator. Same rules apply - pullback and bounce off the 21MA. But like you said, be careful. Bag Lady posted a very nice post regarding brealing the time frame into 15min around price announcements.

Hmmm... That's it. That's all I've got.

Anybody care to help me complete the list? I KNOW that there are days that forex veterans would rather just take off and go to the beach than watch their set ups fail again and again. What days are just bad for trading in general (and for newbies in particular?) I've heard someone mention something about "triple witching day?" What is that?

Sorry, cannot help you here/with the above-mentioned.

Also, I hear that the NFP can give your account a heart attack, but...

Yes, I agree - be very careful and sometimes you need to wait for at least 10-15 minutes for market to show direction. Especailly if you do get a 1min pattern like this month's NFP (up and down and all over the place) .

Is it enough to avoid 30 minutes before and after the NFP? Or would you take the whole day off?

No. I do trade the 5min system until about 2h before the announcement.

Are there any other days that it would be more advisable to take a mini vacation rather than trade?

My times are:

1. I did realise that the EUR and Cable start moving around 07H00GMT with one or two tradeable setups.

2. After 11H00GMT I am been careful taking a setup because I see frequently the market start turning around (untill around 13H00GMT)

3 Then I don't like to trade after 18H00GMT - usually not enough momentum

4. I don't like to trade any of the Asian session - got burned too many times because of the lack of momentum. I saw there is usually only one tradeable setup per move and it is usually the first pullback after the 50MA cross. Then the markets tend to turn around.

5. I still want to repeat myself - "trade what you see and not what you (or just as important - or other people) think."

6. I will evaluate each and every movement and pullbacks



Good luck with your trading and develop your system.
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #3,569
  • Apr 15, 2008 1:05pm Apr 15, 2008 1:05pm
Quoting Mr Smith
Hi Xaron,
Nice trades, I'm wondering in general do you move stops to b/e +1 pretty fast, like after a few pips profit? It seems you did on that uj trade, is that how you are doing it, Id appreciate any of your notes on this, I took that uj trade as well but I let mine go all the way up to 101.10 then back down into profit, I used a 27 pip stop. Didn't feel to hot in the drawdown.

Thanks
Thanks! Usually I try to catch about 10 pips with the first half of my position. After that I set my SL to BE. I had a bad feeling about the UJ trade so I moved my SL very fast to BE. The second reason was that I already reached my target of 1% and I didn't want to let this become a loser.

Regards - Xaron
  • #3,570
  • Edited 2:23pm Apr 15, 2008 2:12pm | Edited 2:23pm
Quoting Dahlia
Look at the beautiful formation. Look at the rounding off as the price starts to descend... I entered when the price took out the previous bar's low. Price continues to fall... And JUST when I was about to move my stop to breakeven, the price suddenly reverses just enough to take out my stop, then continues down to hit my target.

Arggg....

I've been studying the 1 minute charts for the last week. If my rules were followed, there should be very few blips like this. I'll be willing to chalk this up to just bad luck if this doesn't happen too often...

My broker is an ECN too, so I don't suspect that they were the ones to take me out. But since they do provide level 2 data, I guess other traders can see my stop and they were the ones who did it?

Hmmm... We'll see how often this happens. I might have to formulate a different stop tactic...
Hi Dal

You'll get a feel for it. I just change to the 1min chart in fast moving market (where price is far away from the 10MA on the 5min). It usually occurs when price breaks through the 50MA before the first pullback towards the war zone. I think that is the time to change to the 1min chart. Otherwise is it too choppy.

Just my opinion - trade what you see and not what you or other people see.
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #3,571
  • Apr 15, 2008 2:19pm Apr 15, 2008 2:19pm
Hi Dal

An example what I am trying to say - see the 5min chart and then the very same time on the 1min (the rectangle on the chart). That very typical fast move through the 50MA - then the pullback hopefully to move on upwards. But in this case, it was not the case. Not that there was no power candle in the war zone (after the green rectangle). It just went straight through.

I hope it makes sense
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20080415 5min.gif Size: 34 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 20080415 1minjpeg.JPG Size: 81 KB
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #3,572
  • Apr 16, 2008 2:40am Apr 16, 2008 2:40am
Target reached.

EUR/JPY
#1:
Long at 160.910
1st half closed at 160.996: +8.6 pips
2nd half closed at 160.989: +7.9 pips

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2008/intr...jpy_160408.png

EUR/USD
#1:
Long at 1.58326
1st half closed at 1.58385: +5.9 pips
2nd half closed at 1.58393: +6.7 pips

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2008/intr...usd_160408.png

Regards - Xaron
  • #3,573
  • Apr 16, 2008 3:19am Apr 16, 2008 3:19am
Xaron, your success rate is just creepy. Do you also look for candle formations or just the 3 MAs?
  • #3,574
  • Apr 16, 2008 3:39am Apr 16, 2008 3:39am
Wonko, old friend.

No, I don't look at candle formations. For me they don't say anything in this short timeframe - they're just not reliable (for me).

It's also some kind of multi pair watching. Let's take a look at the EUR/JPY:

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2008/intr...160408_2_1.png

There was a possible long setup right before 09:00 german time. The reason why I didn't go long there:

1st there was no new high in the EUR/JPY. 2nd: The EUR/USD was at a resistance level at the same time. It already did some nice movement. I expected a down correction there:

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2008/intr...160408_2_1.png

And then the USD/JPY. It did look like that it wants to go south right before 09:00.

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2008/intr...160408_2_1.png

For me this was a signal to be careful enter a long position in the EUR/JPY, as the Euro had shown some weakness and the JPY could show some strength for a retracement as well. The result would had been a EUR/JPY heading south.


Ok, finally it went north after some choppy movement, but who knows? After a new high was reached in the EUR/JPY (and the resistance in the hourly chart was broken) I entered in the retracement.

Regards - Xaron
  • #3,575
  • Apr 16, 2008 7:12am Apr 16, 2008 7:12am
Thanks Golfer. Your thoughtful replies are always appreciated. I think I just need more screen time...
Money missed is better than money lost
  • #3,576
  • Apr 16, 2008 10:03am Apr 16, 2008 10:03am
I've just finished reading through the entire thread

It's a fantastic read, thoroughly recommend it to anyone new here. There is no short cut to success, you must put the time in and the effort and do your research for yourself!

A massive pat on the back and big hugs go out to Willem, but also Phillip, Xaron, Mkain, bshadroo, Dhalsim, Emacro, Eyevoltage... the list is too long, but you should know who you are! Thanks for all your hard work and commitment to all of our futures. May your bags overflow with pips!

Look forward to joining in when and where I can,
Rebecca,x.
May all your pips grow into great big fruitful trees
  • #3,577
  • Apr 16, 2008 11:04am Apr 16, 2008 11:04am
I want to share this trade with you - see how to exit early if you don't feel comfortable with your trade.

I exit for 1 pip profit and afterwards my TP level was reached. But I just didn't like the price going through My Small support line and the higher lows were broken.

Well, I did make 19pips with other 2 trades. Very limited time to trade today - so I am satisfied.

Well done, Xaron - I do like you approach. Very simple but very effective. Keep it up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20080416 5min trade 1jpeg.JPG Size: 97 KB
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #3,578
  • Apr 16, 2008 11:07am Apr 16, 2008 11:07am
Quoting Dahlia
Thanks Golfer. Your thoughtful replies are always appreciated. I think I just need more screen time...
My pleasure - anything to assist members to develop their own style. Look at how successful Xaron and Mkain are. Wonder what happen to Mkain - I saw he is now busy with the 4h system. This system will assist you to understand the 4h system. Go for it.
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #3,579
  • Apr 16, 2008 11:11am Apr 16, 2008 11:11am
Quoting Bag Lady
I've just finished reading through the entire thread

It's a fantastic read, thoroughly recommend it to anyone new here. There is no short cut to success, you must put the time in and the effort and do your research for yourself!

A massive pat on the back and big hugs go out to Willem, but also Phillip, Xaron, Mkain, bshadroo, Dhalsim, Emacro, Eyevoltage... the list is too long, but you should know who you are! Thanks for all your hard work and commitment to all of our futures. May your bags overflow with pips!

Look forward to joining in when and where I can,
Rebecca,x.
Hi Reb

Well done - you won't regret spending all those efforts studying the thread.

Now I am looking forward to your comments, inputs and analysis.

I can't wait to see your charts after looking at the quality of your inputs on the 4h system.
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #3,580
  • Apr 16, 2008 12:31pm Apr 16, 2008 12:31pm
Quoting Xaron
Target reached.

EUR/JPY
#1:
1st half closed at 160.996: +8.6 pips
2nd half closed at 160.989: +7.9 pips


EUR/USD
#1:
1st half closed at 1.58385: +5.9 pips
2nd half closed at 1.58393: +6.7 pips
Xaron,

Your profits seem to be in odd pip increments: 8.6, 7.9, etc... I guess you're not following the "move to BE at 6 pip gain, then TP at 10 pips". How are your moving your stops? At what increments? Do you move them according to the latest resistance? If not, by what criteria are you planning your stops and exits?

Thanks!
Dahlia
Money missed is better than money lost
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