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Lusan's trade Journal

  • #81
  • Edited 11:16am Apr 3, 2008 11:05am | Edited 11:16am
naseem nicholas taleeb.
dun forget to follow up with his bloack swan. I love his writings too.

have a good time out there lusan, looking forward to hear from you. Take care!
  • #82
  • Apr 4, 2008 11:14am Apr 4, 2008 11:14am
my demo trade during news time today.i think we should avoid to trade during big news as it is very volatile.attack in wrong direction during news will lead u into deep dark :

however still manage to win the big battle after 2nd rescue.but still not very happy with my entry timing.will try to practice and practice again.
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  • #83
  • Apr 4, 2008 11:19am Apr 4, 2008 11:19am
Quoting amenlo9
my demo trade during news time today.i think we should avoid to trade during big news as it is very volatile.attack in wrong direction during news will lead u into deep dark :

however still manage to win the big battle after 2nd rescue.but still not very happy with my entry timing.will try to practice and practice again.
Still you did good.
I stay away from news time...you have a very good example here...Note that after the big fall..there was a lot of profit taking...a big jump...a return to the previous trend...and keep falling...very umpredictable...It could have keep going down and then you avoid the rescue...still...a rollocoaster...

Regards,
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #84
  • Apr 6, 2008 11:56pm Apr 6, 2008 11:56pm
Quoting luSan
What a day! I found myself on the wrong bus and fighting the trend all the way to the end...My session is supposed to be 2 hours and this one lasted almost 5 hours...I almost got to work late!

Big learnings:
(1) past trading habits last and are dangerous
I remembered the story The Wild and Free Pigs of the Okefenokee Swamp.

The story is in fti's thread post #452.http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=452

I think that is why fti always says "be nimble".
  • #85
  • Apr 16, 2008 7:37am Apr 16, 2008 7:37am
As of now I am stopping placing my trades in this journal because

1. If you like this strategy, you must learn by doing it. Imitation might destroy you.

2. Have my own access database that I created last weekend to keep track of my wars. It takes too much time to keep the information in two different places.

Of course, I will keep talking to people about the ups and down of this journey.

Best wishes,
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #86
  • Apr 16, 2008 10:33am Apr 16, 2008 10:33am
no lusan,please don't stop posting.i think you still can post your trade as reference and discussion.it will still benefited to all the dancer.everybody's dance will be different,so i think we are impossible to imitating your style.
  • #87
  • Apr 16, 2008 12:32pm Apr 16, 2008 12:32pm
Quoting amenlo9
no lusan,please don't stop posting.i think you still can post your trade as reference and discussion.it will still benefited to all the dancer.everybody's dance will be different,so i think we are impossible to imitating your style.
Ok, ok, ok, I hope somebody could benefits... I will post only the tradding session without explanation...it seems that you find some help in this...at least is very encouraging for you...

Tonight I will do an evaluation and make some changing on my dance. I will be bringing back an idea that I played with at the beginning of my forex experience. I will draw a line on the 15M...this will be my "line on the sand" that would triger exiting all the trades.

Why? I need a protection against all londons news that happens from 4:00-6:00 am. At that time, I am a little sleepy and I might lose concentration. It happen today again. I got my 50 pips and I stay when the market changed direction...we easily are hypnotized by PA...So the line will say..."Out-Right-Now!"

This is not a stop on any trade but a stop on the whole campaign. Once fti told me that not stop losses did not mean that we have no losses....so I got a big one and I need to develop away to protect the holy book against...

Best wishes
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #88
  • Apr 16, 2008 2:23pm Apr 16, 2008 2:23pm
Hi, Lusan! Did you go short today on EU ? If you did than it was no chance to survive today, and you did right closing the whole position.
  • #89
  • Apr 16, 2008 3:28pm Apr 16, 2008 3:28pm
Quoting alexfot
Hi, Lusan! Did you go short today on EU ? If you did than it was no chance to survive today, and you did right closing the whole position.
Yep! I was short....I die...but I am very happy after all..it forced me to reevaluate my strategy on how to deal with bad surprises... Right now I took some time at to think about...the point? We need we have a line to kick the pail and give up before pa runs away with our bucks...(her?)...It was a very expensive lesson but...we have to get through the pain to get the point accross...:

I am considering setting up channels on the 15M...Actually they could even be used as profit target...this is problem that must be solved...fti's technique are too powerfull and therefore dangerous...
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #90
  • Apr 17, 2008 5:11am Apr 17, 2008 5:11am
After yesterday mess...I added to my 15M a line...If the 15 closes above that line I am out...yes OUT and happy that I left.

Today I have a good session...Yes...against the EURO...why? That is waht the 5M is telling me. It was a almost a perfect war that ended lost because of a wrong entry...I attempted the final rescue before closing the day...and I entered in the wrong direction...Oanda closed all the trades...I was out....oh well...c'est la vie.

At the start of the session I noted the after effect of yesterday mess...a sense of lack of confidence...thoughts like "again short...you got to be kidding...you will be killed...the 1D is saying going long and the 5M saying short and you will go short...AGAIN...Ah...No, do not go short...do not...etc."

It is amazing how much of a mind game is trading...We are our worst enemy...

new consideration about Troop deployment:
Attack: 1 scout + 2 attack waves -- all with PT at 12 pips
Rescue: 1 Level 1 and if that fail 1 level 2 and if that fail wait until the yellow line to surrender.

Learned:
1 - Take your profit and wrong...do not reset PT...fixed now at 12 pips...Early gains will be foreign capital
2 - Only 2 open rescue mission are allowed...Otherwise the book is at risk
3 - Trust the yellow line...it is your shield against black swans.
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Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #91
  • Edited 3:49am Apr 18, 2008 3:30am | Edited 3:49am
No trade today because I am puzzled and confused. Note the 3 kingdoms below. How come the USD is both strong and weak in the chart below? I do not understand...still...it is Friday and I am a little tired...so out...a vacation...

Yes, I added the EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY 5M charts to my setup...just to watches and maybe learn something

Also note that the 15M and 5M are telling us to go short but the 1D (not included is clealy saying go long...I think we should go short for a while...I entered short then I exit...then I entered long...then I told myself..."hey, you are confused. If so,,,GET THE HELL OUT NOW."

Edit: I just checked. 60 mins after this note, we have 20 pips of volatility...PA did nothing...so I guess the decision was correct. Do not asked me how I knew...I just do not know...
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Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #92
  • Apr 18, 2008 5:03am Apr 18, 2008 5:03am
nice dance lusan.between,may i know your average ROI for each battle?i am facing similar issue with jest which is not happy about the ROI.but still 0.5-1% per trade already a nice return is the risk lower.i feel uneasy when we going to risk 10% our account and the ROi is less than 0.5% per trade.still looking for better MM to maximize return but lower the risk,but is it possible?
  • #93
  • Apr 18, 2008 6:34pm Apr 18, 2008 6:34pm
Quoting amenlo9
nice dance lusan.between,may i know your average ROI for each battle?i am facing similar issue with jest which is not happy about the ROI.but still 0.5-1% per trade already a nice return is the risk lower.i feel uneasy when we going to risk 10% our account and the ROi is less than 0.5% per trade.still looking for better MM to maximize return but lower the risk,but is it possible?
Amen

ROI is meaningless for me at this time...1 % a day is easy; my target is about 0.4 %/day... but we have a problem. Its name is risk management...

I am focused 100% in figuring out how to manage risk...If we find a way, then you and me will be very rich...

Regards
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #94
  • Edited 4:01pm Apr 21, 2008 3:44am | Edited 4:01pm
A quick dance. A little chaotic.
Bias: long because 15M long bar and 5M long. Low expectation because 5M already on the C of an ABCDEF wave and moving fast.

1- scout long -2k
2- scout brough home - I was confused. Is the news coming out today? Yes. Actually not, it on Wedneday
3- troop out - oops! Wrong entry. Too large.. 4k instead off 2k
4- Demouted to scout troop and out -2k
5. first troop coming home
6. new dance because only scout out?
7. troop out - 4 k
Notice 3 kings divergence. GBP/USD falling ahead of EUR/USD. A reversal?
9. Bring everyone home and end war.

I could have waited and start a shorting dance but too many confussion today and it would be a dance against the 15M…I already got 42 pips so enough.

Learning
1. Note how I began looking at the 3kings to make decision. Why? Since GBP/USD has higher volatility than EUR/USD, I would suspect that it should show early indications of upcoming changes...I began tracking the 3 kings on my data base.

1.5- Note that indeed there was a reversal after my exit.
2. I began considering Elliot ABCEDF sequences.Edit: Actually old Elliots or fti's coding...I do not know but...it did work this time.. I gave an example on fti's thread.
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Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #95
  • Apr 22, 2008 3:24am Apr 22, 2008 3:24am
Bias: 5M broke short trend- so long
Yellow line set at trend line

1- Scout (2k)
2- Rescue (6k) with profit
3- Troop (4x)
4- 3rd wave troop (6x)
Profit on a big 30 pips bar = 68 pips
It keep going for another 30 pips after my PT.

Do I have an issue? Left so much booty on the table…ant work, ant work, ant work!!! You are on training. Minimize risk…I could have reverted fast on you …Greed control, etc.

After confirming the ABCDE approach, I might want reconsider PT strategy.
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Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #96
  • Apr 22, 2008 4:13am Apr 22, 2008 4:13am
Quoting luSan
No trade today because I am puzzled and confused. Note the 3 kingdoms below. How come the USD is both strong and weak in the chart below? I do not understand...still...it is Friday and I am a little tired...so out...a vacation...

Yes, I added the EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY 5M charts to my setup...just to watches and maybe learn something

Also note that the 15M and 5M are telling us to go short but the 1D (not included is clealy saying go long...I think we should go short for a while...I entered short then I exit...then I entered long...then I told myself..."hey, you are confused. If so,,,GET THE HELL OUT NOW."

Edit: I just checked. 60 mins after this note, we have 20 pips of volatility...PA did nothing...so I guess the decision was correct. Do not asked me how I knew...I just do not know...
Hi Lusan,

This identical PA does not suggest the weakness & strength in USD, in actual, it represents the collective weakness of the YEN. So during this sort of market action it would have been wise to switch to the yen charts to find quick scalps. Same thing applies when you see eurusd and gbpusd tear in market action. eurgbp is where the treasure is lying.

I don't really look into the correlation of price swings in the 5minutes frames but PA between the 3 currencies does suggest a discrepency and a good opprtunity also arises when one decides to tear away from the other. As long as their PA mimick, you should know what to do with the YEN.
  • #97
  • Apr 22, 2008 6:54am Apr 22, 2008 6:54am
Quoting jest1081
Hi Lusan,

This identical PA does not suggest the weakness & strength in USD, in actual, it represents the collective weakness of the YEN. So during this sort of market action it would have been wise to switch to the yen charts to find quick scalps. Same thing applies when you see eurusd and gbpusd tear in market action. eurgbp is where the treasure is lying.

I don't really look into the correlation of price swings in the 5minutes frames but PA between the 3 currencies does suggest a discrepency and a good opprtunity also arises when one decides to tear away from the other. As long as their PA mimick, you should know what to do with the YEN.
Thanks...even though I do not trade this pattern, I will study it..so the YEN..aha...
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #98
  • Edited 3:39am Apr 23, 2008 3:13am | Edited 3:39am
Away from the news? really?
Today I only did demo. News was coming out and I wanted to stay away...Still it seems doable...I will demo along the next three days.

Anyway I practiced my approach.
1-scout (2x)
2-troop (4x)
3-third wave (6x)
adjusted profit and won the war. Booty: 58 pips

Probably there is more upside potential but then I have to adjust MO. Eventually I will need to look into adjusting my profit taking strategy, but not yet...

Edit: Actually no really for this session. I just checked and I exit 10 pips away from the top that I set because of a strong S/R.
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Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #99
  • Edited 6:52pm Apr 26, 2008 6:25pm | Edited 6:52pm
All changes. That is life...I believe that there is more than one way of making a profit...so this week I began my split...two different trading strategies...

1. 5M fast dance as learned from fti...I like it very much...good for non-new days...attack and rescue implemented here...no questiion...I am very orthodox here...stick to the 5M as trend and the 30S timing...keep trading 3:30 to 5:00 am (EST)...play by the strategy we learned from fit...no news..

2. 3H or 1D trend...the rules?..trend following..if the trend is up buy...if the trend is down sell...no stop but exit if trend is broken and confirmed by breaking the last high/low...keep an eye on the 3H...redraw trend lines as PA dance the slow dance..keep an eye on the trend...do not save a trade...just exit..and wait to see whenever the trend is broken....I mean: become a trend follower....

I will be posting both in my journal...Warning: I explore forex...so far so good for the 5M dance...I want to develop an approach for a much slower trading...so...

Plan:
1- Fast 5M dance if not news at 3:30 am
2- Slow trend trading...always...if there is a trend as defined by the trending criteria...

That is all... good luck.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #100
  • Edited Apr 27, 2008 5:17pm Apr 26, 2008 6:48pm | Edited Apr 27, 2008 5:17pm
A slow 3H/15M dance for those who have a daytime job and cannot trade throughout the day? Is this possible? That is what I am trying to explore here.

Trading rules
1. Trend line following on 3H time frame
2. 15M for timing
3. No stop/profit taken...
4. Exit at confirmed TL break

MO
1. Sequential trading: 1/2 + 1/2.
2. Completed bars only used for trend analysis
3. All position will exit together on TL break.
4. One rescue operation is allowed only if miss-timing the first entry.
5. Failure is to be found out-of-trend

Definition (As determined by PA)
....Trend up: HH and HL
....Trend down: LL and LH
PA confirms the trendline. TL is a reminder of a surrender line.

That is all...
Very simple...Find the 3H trend and join it with the 15M...

For example...in the attached chart...I entered after with 1/2 because (1) the trend was broken and (2) the last support line was broken. I entered with another 1/2 after the down trend was confirmed...so far I have 1/2 + 1/2 = a full short position...

I plot some S/R lines...to track the evolution of this experiment only.


Warning:..this is real money...I do not believe in demo...

Open questions:
1. How will the news affect this trend?
2. How will lack of stop hurt profitability?
3. How long will trades stay open?
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Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
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