Lusan's trade Journal

Quoting bigblue

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Hi luSan

You are providing a great service by detailing your trades - thank you

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Quoting jest1081

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wow lusan, you've got really quick fingers. gotta learn from you.

i had an overwhemingly tiring dance today. entry was bad, i had to wait for the downswing to end before i send the rescues, din wanna hurry but i felt drained after a while...lol

Think i gotta start looking at the 1 min charts so that i could gauge the small swings created by the 5mins...i'll try be more aggresive like you....watch the energy...if you are tired stop...that's why this morning...i thought that a reversal was coming...but I did not have the energy to play it...so I exited...and then it came hard and many pips were left on the table...Tomorrow will be another day...

booty? 50pips that took a long long time.

entry sequence : 1, 1, 3
exit sequence : 4, 1

zzzzzzzzzzzz

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Quoting luSan

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Remember fti is telling us to be nimble...so I am very nimble...I play every 5M...

Comment:
1- I would have gone short with the 5M scout...knowing that a reversal would be coming very very soon...as it did...why? 15M seems long

Thing is, i don't know if there is a reversal, i am just going with the marketwave...need to study further

2. Could you post your 5M showing mostly your trade data..and 20-20% only of the past. It would help me seeing the numbers...

I'll ry to get it done later tonight

3.Bollinger bands? do you use them? Isnt' PA already telling everything that BB would tell us?

Yes. This one i decided to use for a good measure of volatility. I read SunZi again recently and something struck me. In Chapter 4 Disposition of the Army, SunZi said;

“In Warfare, evaluation must be made as follow; First, Estimating the degree of difficulty; Second, Assessing the scope of operation; Third, Calculation of own forces; Fourth, Comparison of forces; Fifth, Establishing Chances for victory”

Estimating Degree of Difficulty

In trading we look at how easy or difficult it is to trade by understanding price volatility. The stronger the volatility, the harder it is to trade the charts. So I have concluded that difficulty gauge should be the evaluation of price volatility.

How will I gauge volatility?

By noting the average daily range of the currency. Has it completed the range? if yes, going against daylight trend may be an option if price action permits.

By noting size of swing movements. Application of Bollinger Bands to understand the historical volatility can help in identifying such instances.

By noting and factoring impending news, crowd expectations of the news release and the market action during and after the news release.

I wont continue with the rest but this is somewhat my currenty MO is. Im trying to find ways to keep my trades in quick raids like yours without affecting my current dance mode, i think im quite comfy with it, coz;

1. Im trading the trend
2. By doing so it gives me more option of keeping a troop in for the long haul.

Some how, i think, i do get major the movements correct, but its my nuance to enter after a correction thats stopping me from aggresively snowballing in and out for those quick raids. Thats my weakpoint, something which i wanna pick up from you.

4. I use the 1M and the 10S...I watch them carefully all the time...at times I use several bars in the 10S to catch short wave bottoms and highs...very risky indeed.

Right. Noted

5. Aggresive? Sure...let us be...remember we are developing a mindset muscle.

6. Hey... your book is better now than when you began.
Still getting the hang of it. Practice practice practice. lol

Regards,

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Quoting jest1081

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Hi Lusan,

I think i just lost you there...
What do you mean by making things complicated?
>>>The only analysis I make is to determine the trend bias...The rest is highly emotional...a dance..no consideration of trend...I even talk sometime to the screen and the bars!..

If its the Bollingers, well its there to have a good feel at the volatility, not much for anything else, it does not affect my decision making.
>>>I mean that for me even adding a line, any line to the chart creates a mental brock tha stops me from merging with the action. Note how empty is my 5M. I try to sense the volatility. Note in you quote below the second sentence.

pls refer to fti's post, i quote,

"On short charts, I have the hourly sma plotted to measure volitility.
I tend not to put studies on charts to distract proper reading of market form.
if the lady have long, trendy legs, I normally put the 15mins charts to the back as well,
so as not to clutter the screen."

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...8&postcount=51

SRs? Did fti teach us anything abt SRs? I thought SRs a meant to be levels where they use to sweep the sitting ducks?
>>>Correct. But I sense that I must be aware of them because they will go there to sweep them pigs. Remember never stop, but I set profit target..and I am considering that because the ducks are there...then we might kill some of them too, right?

My MO is still to trade with the trend as what has been preached over and over again by fti. Each of us may have differing views on how we evaluate them.
>>>Trading with the trend is good but sometimes we get the trend wrong. Then what? I use to exit when I began to study...Now, depending on my fighting mood, I either fight of revert. Nothing is fixed.

Im definitely not as good as you in dancing the fast charts but by looking at your entries, it does suggest that your discretionary trades are highly influenced by 1min or the 10sec PA. This may also explains the immense speed of your trades
>>> You again correct. I use those to time my entries ONLY.

It allows you to trade 15-20pip swing but u bring home a booty of 60-70 pips each time, does not also neccesarily mean you are on the right macro trend.
>>>Correct. I do not care much about the macro (1D trend); remember my constrain of trade no matter what...If in alighment with 1D then easy, very easy. I try to be aligned with the 15M. When they agree, easy. When they do not, then I listen to 15M but then I know that that the risk is very high and I have lower booty expectations for the day.

Coz i've looked and tried plenty of times on the 5mins, theres just simply no way for me to make 2/3 entries on a single 5min bar without having immense discretion on the 1min, its like ur trading the 5min trends on the 1min bar.
>>>Correct. You really are getting my style. I do not trade the macro but the 5M. I want to master that time frame.

Gotta give it to you, your damn good in this. I'll try to work harder.
>>>The demo above I did it to show my thinking process only. Do not worry. Keep praticing. It is developing a muscle of reacting fast, determine and with self confidence. You figure 5M is going up, up, up...my voice tell me: "lusan, forget it, sell, sell, sell, go against the masses." You see, total lack of common sense!!

>>>Hey...Thanks for the compliment...I am just learning...a student using the little I picked up from fti and everyone in his thread.

best regards
jest

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Quoting luSan

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leighsww, thanks for the matrix... it made me think that it is time to get going with this business.

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Quoting leighsww

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You're welcome

Don't go jumping the gun with starting with an account value too large for your britches, now :.

Like I mentioned in my instructions, use a starting account value LESS than what you actually have to work with. You don't want to be getting over-exposed right off the bat.

Start out slow and with consistent, steady pip banking (as you have been doing thus far ), you'll be increasing your profits substantially in no time.

Again, you don't need all that much starting account value to make some pretty decent income in a few months (like my spreadsheet's hypothetical projections show), so slow and steady/consistent is the way to go. Don't get impatient nor greedy, remember?!! :

I'm still working on the separate attack and rescue sequence spreadsheet, so I'll post that when it's ready in fti's thread.

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Quoting lastchance

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Lusan, you are doing well with your skills. I am trying to learn to scalp profitably also and with a different method. My reason is much like yours, I work a day job and have very little time or access to monitor the markets. My 2 questions to you are: at what point do you consider abattle lost, 10% of your account or what? My second question is, it seems you are using OANDA as your live account broker, how are they as far as fills and slippage when you are scalping? Thanks and hope you continue to do well.

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Quoting luSan

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Ramdon thoughts:

1- Never practice mixed styles nor do crazy experiment like practicing going against the trend....why? Because then You will hurt your mindset...it will create bad anc confusing habits...stick to what works for you only.

2.-Keep improving your MM...I just read jest's approach. I liked it...He takes 10K and use for trading 2.5K...that giving 20 troops... that he deploys as
.1-.1-.2-1.2. I could not do the sequence becasue it is 4 steps and I only work with 3.

3. My current sequence is 1-2-3...I do not like the 3 part anymore...why? Because I feel that the punch is not strong enough...What about 1-2-6?
Then in a good attack the full attack will deliver the session pip target.

4. My fear probably arises from unclear MM...I need to take care of that and think about worse cases...The $ I make is not much so far...because of training...clearly my training is on-going...so not real real money will be made nor should be used at this time.

5. Leighsww is totally correct...go easy and slow..

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Quoting jest1081

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actually, i dont think theres anything wrong with your MM.
i did not really follow leighs skew.

i break my troops into 33 parts by following the Fib skew, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13.
>>>>my is broke into 32 troops but i somewhat reluctant to use them

On rescues, i may skip 8 all together. and on attacks i may do a 2, 3. instead of the conventional 1, 1, 2.
>>>that is my current sequence...1-2-3...but the 3 feel too weak...that the reason <i am considering 1-2-5 or 1-2-8...or something like that...i will be doing some number crunching to choose the proper way for me.

I blieve its good to be flexible.
>>>>yes. I totallz agree with you..

You dont have to restrict your steps to 3 or 4. Play around with the numbers, and leave a good chunk for rescue.
>>>>I so 3 or 4 steps...I would prefer 3...sometimes i have five...

i still think your skew is fine. its proly ur sizing...instead of 3k why not try 2k or 1.5k?
>>>I will be increasing to 2k with an skez similar to above

The only way to improve profitability is to increase risk. But you can control it in two ways,

1. Make the skew more aggressive, instead of using 1,3,9,20, try 1,7,18,40?

2. Keep the same skew, but increase ur troops. You cant increase both, coz it will quadruple your risk.
<<<<my way

Try increasing the risk proportionally say by increments of 25% or 50%?
To get a 50% increase in risk say for examplae;

Troop Size = 1000
Skew Size = 33

You can choose to either increase your troops to 1500 OR increase your skew to 50 but not both coz if you do so, you have effectively increased ur risk by 100%
<<<thanks...I just got to berlin....and jetlag...on the plane, I began reading this book "fool by ramdoness"...I love it. I confirm my fear...I mean to have "preservation of capital" the only meaningful trading rules...all others are relative...

managing risk becomes very important...for example, after the bias is determined? what is the best moment to enter when do to know the future? after some consolidation on the 30S...when should we send the second squad?... after the next 5M bar breaks the High of the previous one (assuming that we are long)...when shall we send the last punch? after a pull from the first 5M wave shown by a somewhat large retracement on the 30S followed by several 30S bar showing a reversal going on....

Now given all these, how many pips will be at risk will depend on the actual volatilty when the trading session occurs and on the moment when we enter the trades...this consideration would help calculation the statistical expected result of the trading session. ...we could use that a quick guide on the skew or sizing for the trading session...a litle table for the fast dance, that given the period volatility, our current success rate after n=32 session, and full win&lost results would recomend a good size for a positive expectation value...ah...business school thoughts...I will play with that tonight or tomorrow.

Isn`t amazing how I am beginning to accept ATR and other volatility metric as something that might be useful? Sometime I do not believe myself on the speed that I change my views..!!! I think that you and fti are into volatility.

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