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zoopy's trading journal

  • #361
  • Apr 13, 2008 6:11pm Apr 13, 2008 6:11pm
Quoting zoopy
What's interesting about your chart is it's similar to what I posted on page 1 of my journal but it was the eurgbp. I thought there was going to be an extreme pullback or a sideways movement. Instead it shot up even more.

If we do go down though I hope we go far down so I can buy at a much better price. Just not sure about this move down. Something similar I remember happened with eurjpy when everyone was saying it's too high. Then there was talk of intervention and it went down very fast, only to come back just as fast and continue up for another 1000 pips.
G7 simply couldn't say they'd intervene.... or you'd be buying euro at 1.50 tomorrow... Who cares what will they do... we've got the charts and fundies and other tools to come up with a perfect plan regardless of what happens..
  • #362
  • Apr 13, 2008 6:20pm Apr 13, 2008 6:20pm
Quoting raczekfx
G7 simply couldn't say they'd intervene.... or you'd be buying euro at 1.50 tomorrow... Who cares what will they do... we've got the charts and fundies and other tools to come up with a perfect plan regardless of what happens..
Yup. Wish it did go to as low as 1.5000 though :

What's also interesting is the usdcad pair. Did you see the monthly dblhc after the buob? I think CAD is going to start weakening a lot.
  • #363
  • Apr 13, 2008 6:29pm Apr 13, 2008 6:29pm
Quoting zoopy
Yup. Wish it did go to as low as 1.5000 though :

What's also interesting is the usdcad pair. Did you see the monthly dblhc after the buob? I think CAD is going to start weakening a lot.
Yup, loonie is set for 1.08 on my charts... oil for a 100, gold for a... and Euro.. you know it..
  • #364
  • Apr 14, 2008 3:15pm Apr 14, 2008 3:15pm
Quoting zoopy
Nice entry Kiss. I entered at 1.5700.
Hey Zoop! I got 204 pips off this trade. In for only about 17 Hrs! Set me up a buy entry again for 1.5669. I don't trade this pair very often but when I have, it's been sa-weeeeeet!
  • #365
  • Apr 14, 2008 4:01pm Apr 14, 2008 4:01pm
Quoting KissFan
Hey Zoop! I got 204 pips off this trade. In for only about 17 Hrs! Set me up a buy entry again for 1.5669. I don't trade this pair very often but when I have, it's been sa-weeeeeet!
Nice trade Kiss

You should trade the Euro more often, it's very profitable. I'm still in that trade until it knocks me out.
  • #366
  • Apr 14, 2008 7:16pm Apr 14, 2008 7:16pm
This is something that I found interesting posted by Merlin (see below) and wanted to add this to my journal before I forget. I'm not too familiar when it comes to fundamentals and even though I tend to trade solely off technicals, I think it's important to at least have some basic knowledge in what affects a currency's strength.



I believe interest rate expectations are the #1 factor in the value of a currency. They are the "thin slice" of currencies. I've spoken a few times of the fundies model that I use...

stronger economy > higher inflation > higher interest rates > more valuable currency

 The ">" means "leads to". The further to the right in the equation, the more important to the valuation. Using this model, the relevance of a strong CPI report is that it leads to higher rates, which leads to stronger currency. The inflation itself doesn't matter to the value of the currency, its only relevance is that it leads to higher rates.



The link to this thread is here (post#5)
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=59315


Thanks Merlin!
  • #367
  • Apr 14, 2008 7:26pm Apr 14, 2008 7:26pm
I wasn't going to post this chart until later this week but after yesterday's insane gap, I feel it's appropriate to do so now just to prepare me for anymore surprises that may come my way.

I have included a daily chart showing various areas of interest. It's been a while since I've posted the line chart as a reference because the euro has shot up without much of a retracement. Because of this, I don't have two reference points to plot my support areas but now have some more information as to what price is doing.

Currently, the areas of interest to buy at should the euro drop would be...
1.5750
1.5450/1.5400
1.4900/1.4850

What is also interesting to note is that there are three peaks (one is very well defined) at the top around 1.5822. This tells me we could see 1.5800/1.5850 act as a future support should price head up higher.
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  • #368
  • Apr 15, 2008 12:25pm Apr 15, 2008 12:25pm
I decided to post this chart since it's in the process of breaking the 1 hour trendline. Price hasn't closed below the trendline yet so be mindful of that as well. Should we get a break below, chances are we're going to most likely see 1.5700.

1.5700 is the next level which I consider important (see post#352) since there is a 50.0% fib retracement and 4 hour trendline. IF this should break which looks like the most likely scenario at this point, I will be resorting to my daily charts to get a clearer picture. When and if we get to this point, I'll update my view. I rather not get ahead of myself at this point.
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  • #369
  • Apr 15, 2008 1:02pm Apr 15, 2008 1:02pm
Quoting zoopy
I decided to post this chart since it's in the process of breaking the 1 hour trendline. Price hasn't closed below the trendline yet so be mindful of that as well. Should we get a break below, chances are we're going to most likely see 1.5700.

1.5700 is the next level which I consider important (see post#352) since there is a 50.0% fib retracement and 4 hour trendline. IF this should break which looks like the most likely scenario at this point, I will be resorting to my daily charts to get a clearer picture. When and if we get to this point, I'll update my view. I rather not get ahead of myself at this point.
I thought, we broke it @ 5822.. G, I rushed in....

.
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  • #370
  • Apr 15, 2008 1:10pm Apr 15, 2008 1:10pm
Quoting raczekfx
I thought, we broke it @ 5822.. G, I rushed in....

.
That works too. Actually, I didn't even see that one, probably because of all the candle wicks at the bottom. I usually look for well defined dips and peaks to use as reference.

About a week ago I was practicing trendlines and noticed the steeper the angle, the more likely the counter trend fails. Especially if it's greater than a 45 degree angle. Not sure how much truth there is to that but just something I noticed happen often. Your one has a nice 45 degree angle.
  • #371
  • Apr 15, 2008 1:21pm Apr 15, 2008 1:21pm
Quoting zoopy


About a week ago I was practicing trendlines and noticed the steeper the angle, the more likely the counter trend fails. Especially if it's greater than a 45 degree angle. Not sure how much truth there is to that but just something I noticed happen often. Your one has a nice 45 degree angle.
I hear ya... I measured the angle and it was exactly 44 degrees. Should it be 42 or 40, I'd double or even tipple my positions....
  • #372
  • Apr 15, 2008 1:29pm Apr 15, 2008 1:29pm
Quoting raczekfx
I hear ya... I measured the angle and it was exactly 44 degrees. Should it be 42 or 40, I'd double or even tipple my positions....
lol. Yah, I'd say it was pretty precise. Measured 44.93847 degrees there. :
  • #373
  • Apr 15, 2008 1:42pm Apr 15, 2008 1:42pm
You know... you'd think euro would go down but it's starting to creep back up again. What's also interesting is if you look at the 4 hour. If this thing keeps going up the way it's going we might even end up with a pinbar. Looks like we have a buob on daily although that might turn into an IB.

lol... I feel like I'm sitting in between two bushes and both are rustling at the same time. One has a bear behind it, the other a bull. I wonder which brought their buddies along too.
  • #374
  • Apr 15, 2008 1:49pm Apr 15, 2008 1:49pm
Quoting zoopy
You know... you'd think euro would go down but it's starting to creep back up again. What's also interesting is if you look at the 4 hour. If this thing keeps going up the way it's going we might even end up with a pinbar. Looks like we have a buob on daily although that might turn into an IB.

lol... I feel like I'm sitting in between two bushes and both are rustling at the same time. One has a bear behind it, the other a bull. I wonder which brought their buddies along too.
price climb on this chart is responsible for euro 'creeping back up'. If cl gives up, we should see the euro tumble quickly. just an opinion of course.....
Attached Image
  • #375
  • Apr 15, 2008 1:53pm Apr 15, 2008 1:53pm
Quoting raczekfx
price climb on this chart is responsible for euro 'creeping back up'. If cl gives up, we should see the euro tumble quickly. just an opinion of course.....
What chart is that?
  • #376
  • Apr 15, 2008 1:53pm Apr 15, 2008 1:53pm
Quoting zoopy
What chart is that?
hmmm... oil? That looks rather bullish.
  • #377
  • Apr 15, 2008 2:00pm Apr 15, 2008 2:00pm
Quoting zoopy
What chart is that?
crude oil future contract (may delivery). It does and given its strength today, Euro should've broken 5900 already. Somethings up... stay tuned.
  • #378
  • Apr 15, 2008 11:11pm Apr 15, 2008 11:11pm
Ok... since the market is so undecided and we have bushes rustling from all directions, I'm going to play it this way. I'll start a forest fire and wait to see who's still standing lol.

On my chart, I have two areas of interest. This is my plan...
If price breaks 1.5850, I will be calling it a week.
If price heads down, I'll be looking to buy at possibly 1.5400 if I can get it that low.

Some may be wondering about the reason for my approach. If I see erratic movement on the 1 hour and 4 hour timeframes, I start moving further out until I find something that makes sense. Right now the daily chart makes the most sense to me. I figured since I'm zoomed out so far, the ECB can intervene all they want or price could go straight to the moon I don't really care. Main thing is, I have a plan, I see what's happening and I'm going to trade it accordingly. If you can't see what's happening, don't trade.
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  • #379
  • Apr 15, 2008 11:31pm Apr 15, 2008 11:31pm
Quoting raczekfx
crude oil future contract (may delivery). It does and given its strength today, Euro should've broken 5900 already. Somethings up... stay tuned.
E/U whipsawed at the open on Sunday-like it does when there is a NFP report.

Oil finishes at a new record high today.

E/U is off it's high by 100 pips?

I'm watching this one for a lesson in fundamentals.
  • #380
  • Edited 4:36am Apr 16, 2008 4:22am | Edited 4:36am
Hey Zoopy and all,

hope you have been successful in this market. I am personally staying out for the moment.

Of interest to me is the last 3 major round numbers, being 1.3000, 1.4000 and 1.5000 the market has either retraced by around 500 pips and then made a run through the level for the first time strongly (1.300 and 1.5000) or has simply just run straight through the level (1.4000 - went straight through and then used as a support). This time the market appears to be acting again like it was before it went through 1.5 and 1.3. Therefore I am of the belief it may do this again, that is, retreat around 500 pips (1.5400 or so) and then make a run straight through 1.6000.

As I write this it is again testing 1.5900. Will have to see how right or wrong I am. I'm not going to Counter Trend again and am not going to buy near the current high. I will enter long either at a retracement once it has punched through 1.6000 or wait for 1.5400 or so to be retraced to and then ride it up again.

just my 2 cents worth.

K8

1.5928 - new high
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