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StewartR - I want my trading to be boring.

  • #81
  • Apr 12, 2008 6:22am Apr 12, 2008 6:22am
This trade was a winner - 1R.

What I did well.
1. I took the trade.
2. I honored the long term trend (daily trend was clearly down)
4. I entered on a strong pull back
5. Confirmed entry with a bearish candle and entered an a break of that candle.

What I could have done better:
I have just back tested 169 entries with this method and there was no need to look at the daily trend. This trade was a daily/4hr hybrid. It worked out because the principle of entering on pull backs works. Ideally I should not have taken this trade as it was not an A trade.
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  • #82
  • Apr 12, 2008 6:29am Apr 12, 2008 6:29am
Another winner.
What I did well - daily chart was strong down trend.
Daily chart was at extreme pull back (stoch)
4 hour chart agreed (stoch)

What I could have done better.
As per trade 4 - this was not an A trade - although still high probability
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  • #83
  • Apr 12, 2008 6:35am Apr 12, 2008 6:35am
GBPUSD,
shorted the pin bar with the stoch at extreme
this is an A trade for me.
exited at 1R.

In trending markets my backtesting is consistently between 75 and 80% for this type of trade with a 1:1 R:R ratio

What could I have done better: nothing.
What did I do well: I followed the plan.
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  • #84
  • Apr 12, 2008 6:40am Apr 12, 2008 6:40am
Pull back to extreme in stoch
CLear uptrend from emas
pin bar price action.
This was an A trade.

What did I do well: I executed the plan.
What could I have done better: nothing. This was good execution.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #85
  • Apr 12, 2008 6:46am Apr 12, 2008 6:46am
Eurousd
strong up trend (emas)
stoch as oversold
doji (indecision) followed by 2 up candles

Not an A trade but very close.
To be an A trade I would like to see a bullish outside bar, bullish engulfing candle or a pin bar.

What did I do well: followed the rules. All other types of trades are a waste of time. There are plenty of A trades.
What could I do better: nothing. This was well executed.
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  • #86
  • Apr 12, 2008 6:52am Apr 12, 2008 6:52am
28 trades
20 wins
7 losses
1 break even

2 trades were clear errors on my part. They were a breach of the rules (what was I thinking?). Posting here is just reinforcing that the rules work - so ONLY trade when the rules are met.


This month I have moved from counting pips to counting the return as a measure of risk. So on 8 trades I am up 4 x risk.
If risking 1% - then the account would be up 4%
If risking 2% - then the account would be up 8%
If I were a gunslinger -3% would put the account up 12% in first 10 days.
  • #87
  • Apr 12, 2008 6:58am Apr 12, 2008 6:58am
I just came back from 1 week vacation (school holidays).
- 7 days to clear my head.
- A few hours to back test my method with various exit strategies
- A few hours to back test in different market conditions

Result - (singing)....I can see clearly now the rain has gone (end singing).

After looking at 169 back tested trades, and posting my last 6 trades from while I was on leave, it is clear that this system works in both trending and ranging markets. I could only get it lose 2% in nearly 2 years of back testing.

Its very simple.
Trade only in the direction of the trend.
Enter on a pull back.
TP at the same level as your risk.

Its never going to catch a 500 pip move (or even a 200 pip move) but it consistently returns what I risked and does so more often than losing.

I am feeling more and more settled with this system. It looks like I will start trading my full account with it in May.
  • #88
  • Apr 14, 2008 3:20am Apr 14, 2008 3:20am
Eurjpy
A trade.
Up trend (21>55>89)
Pull back (stoch oversold)
Trigger: pin bar indicating trend has resumed.

55 pip win
1 R gain

What I did well: I took the trade as my backtested rules told me to. I paid no attention to 'anything' except "trend, pull back and trigger".
What I could have done better: nothing. This was a well executed trade.
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  • #89
  • Apr 14, 2008 3:46am Apr 14, 2008 3:46am
CHFJPY - another A trade
1. Trend clearly up (ema 21>55>89)
2. Pull back to exhaustion (stoch at extreme)
3. Trend resumes (pin bar)

What I did well: took the trade as soon as I saw it. I also entered the trade before price moved up to the entry point. I find that seems best (enter the trade as a stop order).

What I could have done better: I could have let it run a few more pips. I cut this loss a few pips from 1:1 on the risk:reward......but it moved so strongly I just had to bank the profits.
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  • #90
  • Apr 14, 2008 9:03pm Apr 14, 2008 9:03pm
AUDCAD
entered on break of pin bar
trend was up
stoch was oversold.

loss - 58 pips

what I did well: followed the plan, took the loss
what could I have done better: nothing - this was a well executed trade
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  • #91
  • Apr 14, 2008 9:10pm Apr 14, 2008 9:10pm
NZDJPY - stopped out by 3 pips.
WHat I did well - stuck to the rules and exited at my stop.
What I could have done better - nothing, this was a well executed trade.

If I think that this system wins 70% of the time, then I have to expect that 300 of my next 1000 trades will be losers. This was one of them.

The concept of entering on a pull back works. Although I was stopped out....the market did resume the trend almost immediately afterwards. (Backtesting shows that this is very rare....usually, a stop is triggered because the trend has reversed)
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  • #92
  • Apr 14, 2008 9:18pm Apr 14, 2008 9:18pm
1/2R Winner - but I made an error

Trend / pull back / price moves in direction of trend / entry - all like clockwork......BUT

what did I do well: entered as per the plan
what could I have done better: I forgot the pip value on the eurgbp is twice that of other pairs, so I entered a position twice what I was supposed to.

Price came within 1 pip of my stop so I nearly lost 2R on this trade.
The oversized trade scared me so I exited at a smaller gain that I would usually have targeted.

So 1 error (oversized trade) lead to another error (cut the profit before the target).
  • #93
  • Apr 14, 2008 9:19pm Apr 14, 2008 9:19pm
...forgot to post the chart....
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  • #94
  • Apr 14, 2008 9:24pm Apr 14, 2008 9:24pm
AUDUSD - 35 pips (1R) winner


what I did well: 1. saw the trend (21>55>89ema). 2. waited for the pull back (stoch at extreme) 3. Entered in direction of trend, after seeing a price action bar (pin bar)

what I could have done better: nothing - this was a properly executed trade according to my trading plan
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  • #95
  • Apr 14, 2008 9:29pm Apr 14, 2008 9:29pm
The system is working well.
My psychology is working out so that I am able to consistently trade the system.
I have posted 34 trades so far..........I am thinking of stopping the thread when I get to the end of the month.

Its been a great exercise to post my trades. Its made me really think about what I'm doing and I am feeling comfortable now..

I'll continue posting trades until April 30th and then consider closing the journal. You can see that all trades are nearly identical so any more posting is likely to just take up disk space for nothing.

I hope that other people find some benefit from seeing such a simple system in action. I would like to give back to the FF community since I learned so much from the others here.
  • #96
  • Apr 14, 2008 9:37pm Apr 14, 2008 9:37pm
I made another error yesterday.

I saw the attached EurUsd trade and did not take it.
I was unsure about the gap and wondered if it meant the trade was going to fail.

But my back testing did not take gaps into account. My backtesting took every trade that met the criteria. Fear stopped me from taking this trade.

I feel annoyed that I let myself down and did not follow the system and take the trigger.

Lesson: trade in real life like you trade in backtesting; be prepared to take a loss knowing there is a 2:1 probability that the trade will work out in my favour anyway.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #97
  • Apr 15, 2008 12:11am Apr 15, 2008 12:11am
Quoting stewartr
The system is working well.
My psychology is working out so that I am able to consistently trade the system.
I have posted 34 trades so far..........I am thinking of stopping the thread when I get to the end of the month.

Its been a great exercise to post my trades. Its made me really think about what I'm doing and I am feeling comfortable now..

I'll continue posting trades until April 30th and then consider closing the journal. You can see that all trades are nearly identical so any more posting is likely to just take up disk space for nothing.

I hope that other people find some benefit from seeing such a simple system in action. I would like to give back to the FF community since I learned so much from the others here.
Hi stewartr

Well, I certainly have enjoyed myself following your thread and watching you develop your system of trend trading. Well done in your achievement and good luck for the future !

Happy trading !
Bakuli
  • #98
  • Apr 15, 2008 12:20am Apr 15, 2008 12:20am
Quoting stewartr
I made another error yesterday.

I saw the attached EurUsd trade and did not take it.
I was unsure about the gap and wondered if it meant the trade was going to fail.

But my back testing did not take gaps into account. My backtesting took every trade that met the criteria. Fear stopped me from taking this trade.

I feel annoyed that I let myself down and did not follow the system and take the trigger.

Lesson: trade in real life like you trade in backtesting; be prepared to take a loss knowing there is a 2:1 probability that the trade will work out in my favour anyway.
Hi Stewartr,

I can fully emphatise with you there as I made the same error of not taking on the trade. I had identified the trade based on Jacko's method ie 50% fib , round number and trendline support. Like you I allowed myself to be influenced by the huge gap when the market opened. Never mind, at least it's a lesson learnt and at least we can comfort ourselves that it will serve us well in the future.

Bakuli
  • #99
  • Apr 15, 2008 1:20am Apr 15, 2008 1:20am
Quoting stewartr
The system is working well.
My psychology is working out so that I am able to consistently trade the system.
I have posted 34 trades so far..........I am thinking of stopping the thread when I get to the end of the month.

Its been a great exercise to post my trades. Its made me really think about what I'm doing and I am feeling comfortable now..

I'll continue posting trades until April 30th and then consider closing the journal. You can see that all trades are nearly identical so any more posting is likely to just take up disk space for nothing.

I hope that other people find some benefit from seeing such a simple system in action. I would like to give back to the FF community since I learned so much from the others here.
Been following this trade since yoiu started it, have noticed how simple you trade and excute trades, how you reevaluate your strategy to suit current market conditions. Thanks for the journal, hope you will post you r developments in the future
  • #100
  • Apr 16, 2008 1:27am Apr 16, 2008 1:27am
USDCAD
EurCad
AudCad

I took a position in each of these pairs - as per the system and was stopped out on a large 4 hour bar soon after entry. I did nothing wrong. I know that sometimes 3 trades like this can act as one position, but I am prepared to take that risk (because the system could just as well provided 3 quick winners). Result 3R loss.
I have entered a stop order to re-enter two of the three losses as it looks like they are setting up again.

I have two open positions now Eurusd and Usdchf. Reading other people's journals and comments would indicate that I should close the trades as they are both now in profit. Reason are "double top, poor fundamentals etc etc". But what I wanted to do was trade the system with real money just executing the trades like I would in a backtest......and backtesting doesnt listen to others opinions - so I will let the trade play out.

So I am in two positions now and have stop orders waiting in 5 other pairs. Will be interesting to see how the trading goes over the next 12 hours or so. I dont recall ever having so many setups happening at once.
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