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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #10,001
  • Apr 12, 2008 2:02am Apr 12, 2008 2:02am
i thought this thread using a-candle-formation-like-trading skill
but .........breakout system..........am I correct?anyway can post the breakout indicator..........












my first post on this thread.........10k post I missed a lot of post
  • #10,002
  • Apr 12, 2008 3:07am Apr 12, 2008 3:07am
Quoting B@by trader
i thought this thread using a-candle-formation-like-trading skill
but .........breakout system..........am I correct?anyway can post the breakout indicator..........

my first post on this thread.........10k post I missed a lot of post
There are no breakout indicators for this...
  • #10,003
  • Apr 12, 2008 4:13am Apr 12, 2008 4:13am
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
Hi, Mike

I am reading this post of yours now, I thought MBT has very low commission, probably I didn't get a clear picture of their fee structure, but, my impression is they offer very competitive pips, as far as I can remember, for usd base, only charge 1/2 pips, probably I misunderstood what they are telling, it will be nice of you if you can let me know I mis-read something.

the other thing I am wondering is the trailing stop, I noticed they have this function in their preference setting, do you feel any difference than using MT4 ea? otherwise, that will be wonderful, as I am having an account with MBT, of course, blow off already,hehehe. I will remit some fund someday when I am ready for another try. thank you in advance for sharing. best regards

Quoting mbqb11
Yes Habeeb you are correct about oanda...no trailing stops. This is often the reason people pass up on oanda. Also oanda is 50:1 leverage at most. FXsol offers up to 400:1, but watch out, the swap rates become killer against you. I am on MBtrading now. Commissions are high, but the execution has been amazing and I am very very pleased with them. Just another route to check out. You can trade 10 cent lots with them.

Best,
Mike
  • #10,004
  • Apr 12, 2008 9:57am Apr 12, 2008 9:57am
Hi/Lo!

I was wondering what's your preference on entering pin bars. Sometimes second eye does not retrace to certain fib levels, in that case it's more clear where the price will go.
1.Do you prefer to enter on a brake of a pin for a certain amount of pips (let's say 10 pips...) ?
2.What about entering on retracement ? Do you always enter at 62fib
or do you prefer other levels ?

If our entry is on 62 fib retr. then we have reasonably small stop loss. In other words, you have 3:1 chance to at least brake even (you brake even when the second eye actually brakes the hi/lo of pin). Meaning you can get stopped out 2 times out of 3, and make it to brake even on 3rd try.

Does someone have a journal on trading pins ? It would be nice to see the statistics.
  • #10,005
  • Apr 12, 2008 10:55am Apr 12, 2008 10:55am
Quoting krue
Hi, Mike

I am reading this post of yours now, I thought MBT has very low commission, probably I didn't get a clear picture of their fee structure, but, my impression is they offer very competitive pips, as far as I can remember, for usd base, only charge 1/2 pips, probably I misunderstood what they are telling, it will be nice of you if you can let me know I mis-read something.

the other thing I am wondering is the trailing stop, I noticed they have this function in their preference setting, do you feel any difference than using MT4 ea? otherwise, that will be wonderful, as I am having an account with MBT, of course, blow off already,hehehe. I will remit some fund someday when I am ready for another try. thank you in advance for sharing. best regards

Hey Krue,

Yes they have the highest of all the ECN models out there(That I have seen or would trust). 10$ per 100,000 on usd based. Check out the website for a better understanding.

As for trailing stops, I don't use broker trailing stops. I trail my stops manually. I wouldn't ever use an mt4 EA. Because the EA is client side not server side.

I don't want to derail this thread too much with broker questions, contact me via PM if you have more anytime.

Quoting bee24
Hi/Lo!

I was wondering what's your preference on entering pin bars. Sometimes second eye does not retrace to certain fib levels, in that case it's more clear where the price will go.
1.Do you prefer to enter on a brake of a pin for a certain amount of pips (let's say 10 pips...) ?
2.What about entering on retracement ? Do you always enter at 62fib
or do you prefer other levels ?

If our entry is on 62 fib retr. then we have reasonably small stop loss. In other words, you have 3:1 chance to at least brake even (you brake even when the second eye actually brakes the hi/lo of pin). Meaning you can get stopped out 2 times out of 3, and make it to brake even on 3rd try.

Does someone have a journal on trading pins ? It would be nice to see the statistics.
Hey Bee, you will find that all these questions are up to the reader. For trading a break of the pin. People use anywhere from 5-10pips generally. It also depends on the timeframe. I would use a 5 pip break on the 4hr, but a 10-15pip break on the daily timeframe. Also it depends on the pair. I would use a higher pip amount on a pair that has a larger range/volatility such as gbp/jpy.

As for playing on a retracement. This is again up to the trader. And why a lot of back and forward testing needs to be done. The most common I see used is the 50% level. But again you can use any level if this is the route you choose to take. As well as a lot of people use the high of the left eye(bar to the left of the pins high).

Just because you enter on the 61.8% retracement doesn't guarantee you any kind of probability of breaking even. That is something you need to back and forward test to get those numbers.

As for journals with pin trading. The james16group site is loaded with them.


Have a great weekend
Mike
  • #10,006
  • Apr 12, 2008 7:10pm Apr 12, 2008 7:10pm
Inside bars are breakouts from a period of range contraction, is this what you mean?

If yes and you really need an indicator for this. Go to the attachment section at the top of this thread and you will probably find a few price action "detection" type indicators.


Quoting B@by trader
i thought this thread using a-candle-formation-like-trading skill
but .........breakout system..........am I correct?anyway can post the breakout indicator..........












my first post on this thread.........10k post I missed a lot of post
  • #10,007
  • Apr 13, 2008 12:14am Apr 13, 2008 12:14am
Hi, anyone thinking of playing this weekly pin? I would love to hear your comments. Sebastien
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud-jpy.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #10,008
  • Apr 13, 2008 4:53am Apr 13, 2008 4:53am
Quoting OGW
Hi, anyone thinking of playing this weekly pin? I would love to hear your comments. Sebastien
I can tell you that I like the where and the open/close...the nose coulda been a bit longer perhaps and I would have preferred a 10 pip lower close

Btw, I found another one!

SeekingLight, if you can barely remember the name of the directory where those indicator files should get copied to, you might be a J16 addict
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #10,009
  • Apr 13, 2008 5:04am Apr 13, 2008 5:04am
Thank you for replying on such short notice.

Quote
Just because you enter on the 61.8% retracement doesn't guarantee you any kind of probability of breaking even. That is something you need to back and forward test to get those numbers.
I understand it does not give you a guarantee. But the theory behind it gives you 3:1 SL/BE ratio. Question is what's the percentage of cases that second eye retraces to 62 level of pin and then makes a braketrough, compared to the cases when it again does retrace, but the pin isn't activated (broken) later on. I hope I made this clear, if not I'll be glad to clarify it more.
I'm just bringing this up, because I think it's an interesting concept to think about. Of course choosing an entry is up to each individual trader.
That's why I was asking if someone has got a journal trading pins. If not, I'll do the backtest on my own, that's no problem, but it'll take me some more time.

So if anyone is interested in this please feel free to comment.
  • #10,010
  • Apr 13, 2008 8:56am Apr 13, 2008 8:56am
Quoting bee24
Thank you for replying on such short notice.

I understand it does not give you a guarantee. But the theory behind it gives you 3:1 SL/BE ratio. Question is what's the percentage of cases that second eye retraces to 62 level of pin and then makes a braketrough, compared to the cases when it again does retrace, but the pin isn't activated (broken) later on. I hope I made this clear, if not I'll be glad to clarify it more.
I'm just bringing this up, because I think it's an interesting concept to think about. Of course choosing an entry is up to each individual trader.
That's why I was asking if someone has got a journal trading pins. If not, I'll do the backtest on my own, that's no problem, but it'll take me some more time.

So if anyone is interested in this please feel free to comment.
Hi Bee,

I've done a forward test journal using Forex Tester not long ago (trading simulation) and this was something I was hoping to get statistics on just as you ask for. All I found is that any pin that gets retraced a little and then breaks had pretty much the same probabilities of hitting the next PPZ and so on wether it retraced 23% 38% 61% or whatever. They key was the break. Pins that broke favourably after a retrace were the 'edge' so to speak. Larger retraces just allow a tighter stop, with the trade off being you are getting in before it's confirmed with a break, and with higher risk.

Now, if goes further than the 76.4 retracement it's a higher prob of not turning around at all(intra bar). ..That's about all I got. lol

The conclusion I made from this was that (now this is an example) , on a reversal, the retrace to 61.8 or 76.4 could either happen in relation to the pin OR in relation to the wave that the pin starts. Meaning that focusing on just one bar is too narrow a view. You have to be wary of what's happening around it. ( ....heard that before somewhere? )

Hope that helps.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #10,011
  • Apr 13, 2008 1:19pm Apr 13, 2008 1:19pm
[quote=SeekingLight;1949281]I can tell you that I like the where and the open/close...the nose coulda been a bit longer perhaps and I would have preferred a 10 pip lower close

Btw, I found another one!


Hi SeekingLight! Thanks for your reply. Do you mean the Eur/jpy? Because the nose doesn't poke out that much, right? I also see a pin on the Eur-Aud for a long...
Also, SeekingLight, I remember your chart of the cad/jpy you posted a while ago, where you were targetting the 89-90 area... (I remember the chart 'cause I saved it! Also as I'm a Canadian working in Japan and paid in yen, so you'll understand how interested I am in this pair....) Well if you could, please post any updates. Sebastien
  • #10,012
  • Apr 13, 2008 1:33pm Apr 13, 2008 1:33pm
Quoting OGW
Hi, anyone thinking of playing this weekly pin? I would love to hear your comments. Sebastien
No. But I am net short JPY on 2 other pairs, based on dailies...

Not sure about the weekly on that particular pair. Looks like a good pin bar to me but not sure about confluence...
  • #10,013
  • Edited 2:36pm Apr 13, 2008 2:02pm | Edited 2:36pm
Did anyone experience the following spikes on their live trading accounts?
Do you know what caused them?
Broker is OANDA.

Sunday 13 April (time in GMT)

EUR/USD: First spike occured in the hour of 17:00, 2 big bars occured at 19:20 and 19:25...

USD/JPY: Similar with the USD/JPY but minus retracement bar.

Both charts...

Another set of weird spikes just happened as I was writing this post... Any ideas?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD Spike 13 April 19.00.JPG Size: 61 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY Spike 13 April 19.40.JPG Size: 58 KB
  • #10,014
  • Apr 13, 2008 2:20pm Apr 13, 2008 2:20pm
Quoting jcsmesquita
Did anyone experience the following spikes on their live trading accounts?
You mean this one? LOL
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurospike.JPG Size: 69 KB
  • #10,015
  • Apr 13, 2008 2:27pm Apr 13, 2008 2:27pm
Quoting zoopy
You mean this one? LOL

nice!

I think things are just warming up...
  • #10,016
  • Apr 13, 2008 4:30pm Apr 13, 2008 4:30pm
Quoting jcsmesquita
nice!

I think things are just warming up...
the spikes happened because of the announcement of the G7 meeting over the weekend. finance ministers expressend concerns over the strength of the EURO, EURUSD opened much lower, also EURGBP
  • #10,017
  • Apr 13, 2008 6:46pm Apr 13, 2008 6:46pm
that spike stopped me out on euro, oanda refunded me and gave a exit of 5670,nice of them. they said a bank gave them some false feed.
  • #10,018
  • Apr 13, 2008 6:49pm Apr 13, 2008 6:49pm
Quoting Mr Smith
that spike stopped me out on euro, oanda refunded me and gave a exit of 5670,nice of them. they said a bank gave them some false feed.

That's good to hear, I wonder if that same bank gave the MT4 charts a bad feed too...
  • #10,019
  • Apr 13, 2008 7:12pm Apr 13, 2008 7:12pm
Hey Sebastien.
Quoting OGW
Hi SeekingLight! Thanks for your reply. Do you mean the Eur/jpy?
No, I was referring to the posted AUDJPY chart.
Quote
Because the nose doesn't poke out that much, right? I also see a pin on the Eur-Aud for a long...
Also, SeekingLight, I remember your chart of the cad/jpy you posted a while ago, where you were targetting the 89-90 area... (I remember the chart 'cause I saved it! Also as I'm a Canadian working in Japan and paid in yen, so you'll understand how interested I am in this pair....) Well if you could, please post any updates. Sebastien

Nothing much new there. I can't for the life of me remember WHY I put that free floating blue box into the chart, but to show I am not cheating and that it got respected perfectly, I am going to post the three weekly chart progression for CADJPY.

I really really wish I could remember. I suspect it was a fib cluster and I erased it again because I thought it was silly to expect price to react just because of two projected fibs.
Boy, was I wrong
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadjpy_080314_weekly.gif Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: cadjpy_080316_weekly_update.gif Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: cadjpy_080413_weekly_update_2.gif Size: 23 KB
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #10,020
  • Apr 13, 2008 7:20pm Apr 13, 2008 7:20pm
Quoting SeekingLight
I really really wish I could remember. I suspect it was a fib cluster and I erased it again because I thought it was silly to expect price to react just because of two projected fibs.
Boy, was I wrong
Nostraseekus strikes again.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
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