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  • #2,941
  • Apr 10, 2008 11:12pm Apr 10, 2008 11:12pm
Quoting jets211990
yep thanks to all your help...I am notiving price is finding resistance on that 38.2 but at the same time it now has major supports from daily fibb at price 9741....(61.8 fibb) how do you look at that...?
From the Daily chart as of now price has only penetrated it , it takes a daily close above or below it for it to be broken on the Daily
Aight thats enough for me its past my bedtime.....Good luck tonight trading.
  • #2,942
  • Apr 10, 2008 11:13pm Apr 10, 2008 11:13pm
also if price drops it should drop nice since we have no support below...right?at least to the low 9651?

The next major support is 9589...but we would get more then one swing on the way down....Let me know if Iam making sence...
  • #2,943
  • Apr 10, 2008 11:16pm Apr 10, 2008 11:16pm
Quoting jets211990
also if price drops it should drop nice since we have no support below...right?at least to the low 9651?

The next major support is 9589...but we would get more then one swing on the way down....Let me know if Iam making sence...
Yes it will most likely have to work its way down if it continues Short.
  • #2,944
  • Edited 1:25am Apr 11, 2008 12:46am | Edited 1:25am
  •  FxChi
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Cash Rules Everything Around Me | 749 Posts
Darn I missed Bo while he was here. It really is interesting "flowing" with the market and these fibs.

Want to take a few steps back though if I may.

Bo please correct me if I'm wrong here. G/U bottomed @ 1.9649 right?

Intraday fib is then from 2.0047 to 1.9649.

We then start pulling our swing fib from low of 1.9649 to each high until we get a retrace to one of the Swing Fib levels and we can see price respecting that level.

Once high of Swing Fib is broken we know our target will be Swing T1. So we wait until it hits. When price is breaking our Swing Fib High, that's when we bring in our Support Fib levels.

We keep moving our Support Fib Swing Levels to a new high if one is created but we monitor the support break level. Once price closes below that level we know the uptrend is over and we can get rid of our Swing Fib and Support Fib. Essentially, we don't look for targets with Support Fib. Just Trend continuation or trend reversals.

OK, now we know we're Short biased below our intraday short fib and our support fib being broken, so we bring in our Resistance fibs to make sure price doesn't close above our Resistance Break level. Again monitoring for trend continuation/reversal.

I'll post my charts Bo and let me know if I'm on the right track here with the flow. First chart shows the swing and support fib's. Second chart shows resistance coming in. I removed Retracement Pivot to make it less cluttered.

I think what I'm doing is pretty close to the S/R youtube exercise video, but just wanted some feedback here.

I hope that was clear.

Thanks Bo for everything you've posted here!

And lastly - if price reaches 1.9790, wouldn't that be the ideal place to short with a tight stop. Let's say 20 pips? Because we know if that level breaks, it's a reversal.
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"Wishful thinking dies hard." Igor T.
  • #2,945
  • Edited 2:54am Apr 11, 2008 2:43am | Edited 2:54am
Lets say you took the trade short on the evening star since you saw price was holding resistance on 38.2 fibb...then price started to head your way but found support on 61.8 fibb and made the candle close as a hammer...would that make you close your short position and come out BE.

Second if price takes out the 38.2 that would mean you would have to move your green fibb bullish since it would be showing us that price is meeting support. But in order to really think bullish the green fibbs would have to give out right?
or you would just fallow the last swing in price since it is proving as support...and wait for a failure on that?

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would you move the fibb withe white fibb and see if those fibbs hold? or would you still wait for green fibb like you said two go long?
  • #2,946
  • Edited 3:06am Apr 11, 2008 2:53am | Edited 3:06am
Hi Bo,

Just would like to say thanks for such an amazing thread, you have gone into so much detail here with your experience and this really is the best source of information.
I have a question regarding todays price action. Ok, obvious downtrend with the fundies and now the techs seem to be following suit a little more. We had a nice bearish engulfer on the 4hr off the previous intraday long fib yesterday and the current intraday short fib has held price so far this morning.
I took a short at the open of the 05:00(GMT) candle looking to trade it back down to yesterdays low and would evaluate their to see whether it would break the low and continue or reverse.
I would just like to get your take on how you deal with these situations. At the moment we have a small swing and the fibs seem to be holding on this one at the moment. We have had a pin bar off the short fib of this small swing but that does not concern me at the moment, could just be a small battle going on, which is expected. We are also sitting on the retracement short fib and this could provide support for a continued move back up, although its promising that we saw the 4hr close below this fib.
Ok, at what point would you consider this trade a no go? This current swing if broken to the upside has a T1 tgt of the intraday pivot or T2 tgt of the intraday long fib, so in theory, this swing could trigger, pay and the intraday fibs are still in tact. So really we should not be concerned until we see a break of 9790, the intraday long?
So if you took a short here, not saying you would have, would the break now of the swing concern you and would you have closed out the short? I want to give the trade room to breathe but obviously don't want to let it run too far against me.
I would really appreciate a breakdown of how you would have played this, maybe you would never have taken this trade, lol, but hypothetically, it would be very helpful.

Edit: Also, in these situations, when price gets to the swing low you obviously need to assess whether price will continue. Now, we may see price smash through, bounce, stall, anything really. Will you only wait for the completion of an hourly candle to tell the story? Price is probably going to react there, it may come all the way back up to test the inner fib levels of this swing and then smash through all in one candle. What i am getting at, if price did bounce off the lows there, would you wait for the completion of a candle first? So if, for example we got a large bullish engulfing candle at the lows would you close it or wait for more confirmation? Sorry, if i am rambling a little!!!

Look forward to hearing your response.
Steve.
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  • #2,947
  • Apr 11, 2008 2:55am Apr 11, 2008 2:55am
LOL, Hey there Jets, looks like we are contemplating over the same thing there mate!!!
  • #2,948
  • Apr 11, 2008 7:22am Apr 11, 2008 7:22am
Quoting steveshutts
LOL, Hey there Jets, looks like we are contemplating over the same thing there mate!!!
Everyone is putting a little too much emphasis on the swing fib, for the most part the Intraday of yesterday is whats important, the problem is price has nothing driving it or the major players havnt stepped in to drive it yet. Think back to the back testing youve done there is a false sense of time when backtesting...sometimes it takes more than a few hours for a trade to come around..sometimes it may take a couple of days, but when back testing it takes about 45seconds for you too follow a trade to completion.What matters is your trading plan and sticking to it. To me it will take a break of 1.9790 to change the sentiment in order for me to start looking for longs. The price action up to this point is still right in line with that...no reason to close my Short from 1.9776 yet, there are times when price just doesnt move or go anywhere today is one of those so far, but with it being Friday we could see some position squaring by the close of today and Ill hold my short just to see. Today Cable is stuck in roughly a 60 pip range, looking at the action from the London session I see alot of indecision so far, but the sentiment is still down until we can break the resistance levels ahead of price from yesterdays Intraday.
Once the failure occured yesterday and price broke the support of the original move up yesterday thats the signal to begin looking for Shorts on a test and failure at resistance levels. That hasnt changed yet, what will change that is the reverse of what happened yesterday....a break of 1.9790. If you put your swing on the counter move so far an open above 1.9743 just means price is going to test the resistance levels of yesterdays Intraday again, a break below the swings Short levels 1.9729 confirms what we are already trading ...continuation for the Short from 1.9776
  • #2,949
  • Apr 11, 2008 7:29am Apr 11, 2008 7:29am
Quoting FxChi
Darn I missed Bo while he was here. It really is interesting "flowing" with the market and these fibs.

Want to take a few steps back though if I may.

Bo please correct me if I'm wrong here. G/U bottomed @ 1.9649 right?

Intraday fib is then from 2.0047 to 1.9649.

We then start pulling our swing fib from low of 1.9649 to each high until we get a retrace to one of the Swing Fib levels and we can see price respecting that level.

Once high of Swing Fib is broken we know our target will be Swing T1. So we wait until it hits. When price is breaking our Swing Fib High, that's when we bring in our Support Fib levels.

We keep moving our Support Fib Swing Levels to a new high if one is created but we monitor the support break level. Once price closes below that level we know the uptrend is over and we can get rid of our Swing Fib and Support Fib. Essentially, we don't look for targets with Support Fib. Just Trend continuation or trend reversals.

OK, now we know we're Short biased below our intraday short fib and our support fib being broken, so we bring in our Resistance fibs to make sure price doesn't close above our Resistance Break level. Again monitoring for trend continuation/reversal.

I'll post my charts Bo and let me know if I'm on the right track here with the flow. First chart shows the swing and support fib's. Second chart shows resistance coming in. I removed Retracement Pivot to make it less cluttered.

I think what I'm doing is pretty close to the S/R youtube exercise video, but just wanted some feedback here.

I hope that was clear.

Thanks Bo for everything you've posted here!

And lastly - if price reaches 1.9790, wouldn't that be the ideal place to short with a tight stop. Let's say 20 pips? Because we know if that level breaks, it's a reversal.
Wednesdays Intraday was completed and no need to leave it there, your Resistance fib on yesterday is the same things as the Intraday fib...thats what yesterdays Intraday is teling you the Resistance levels ahead of price.
The S&R video was meant for everyone to understand that A fib pulled on price that is going down is pulling resistance levels . A fib pulled across price that is going up is pulling support levels.Wednesdays Intraday was a support fib, Thursdays Intraday is a resistance fib.
And if 1.9790 breaks it doesnt mean its a reversal only the potential for one to occur its reversed once support holds after 1.9790 breaks.
  • #2,950
  • Apr 11, 2008 7:45am Apr 11, 2008 7:45am
What percentage of the time do you think Fibs works?
  • #2,951
  • Apr 11, 2008 8:00am Apr 11, 2008 8:00am
Quoting Rcote
What percentage of the time do you think Fibs works?

Thats hard to say, they are just a tool like trendlines whats the accuracy of trendlines? there is no difference. Its the application or use of them and the trader themselves that find success or failure with them, after developing a strategy with them. All they show to me are possible support and resistance levels to price.
  • #2,952
  • Apr 11, 2008 8:12am Apr 11, 2008 8:12am
Quoting Bobokus
Everyone is putting a little too much emphasis on the swing fib, for the most part the Intraday of yesterday is whats important, the problem is price has nothing driving it or the major players havnt stepped in to drive it yet. Think back to the back testing youve done there is a false sense of time when backtesting...sometimes it takes more than a few hours for a trade to come around..sometimes it may take a couple of days, but when back testing it takes about 45seconds for you too follow a trade to completion.What matters is your trading plan and sticking to it. To me it will take a break of 1.9790 to change the sentiment in order for me to start looking for longs. The price action up to this point is still right in line with that...no reason to close my Short from 1.9776 yet, there are times when price just doesnt move or go anywhere today is one of those so far, but with it being Friday we could see some position squaring by the close of today and Ill hold my short just to see. Today Cable is stuck in roughly a 60 pip range, looking at the action from the London session I see alot of indecision so far, but the sentiment is still down until we can break the resistance levels ahead of price from yesterdays Intraday.
Once the failure occured yesterday and price broke the support of the original move up yesterday thats the signal to begin looking for Shorts on a test and failure at resistance levels. That hasnt changed yet, what will change that is the reverse of what happened yesterday....a break of 1.9790. If you put your swing on the counter move so far an open above 1.9743 just means price is going to test the resistance levels of yesterdays Intraday again, a break below the swings Short levels 1.9729 confirms what we are already trading ...continuation for the Short from 1.9776

Thanks Bo. I think you have hit the nail on the head there with the time factor, it can really eat you alive. So with the trade i highlighted, at what point would you close the short if it did start to cllimb back up against us? Its a little new to me to not have an exact stop in place but i like th style, just take some getting used to. I know you woule be waiting for a break of 9790 so would you wait for a close above this on the 1hr and then close it?
By the way, heading down nicely now.
  • #2,953
  • Apr 11, 2008 8:25am Apr 11, 2008 8:25am
  •  FxChi
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Cash Rules Everything Around Me | 749 Posts
Quoting Bobokus
Wednesdays Intraday was completed and no need to leave it there, your Resistance fib on yesterday is the same things as the Intraday fib...thats what yesterdays Intraday is teling you the Resistance levels ahead of price.
The S&R video was meant for everyone to understand that A fib pulled on price that is going down is pulling resistance levels . A fib pulled across price that is going up is pulling support levels.Wednesdays Intraday was a support fib, Thursdays Intraday is a resistance fib.
And if 1.9790 breaks it doesnt mean its a reversal only the potential for one to occur its reversed once support holds after 1.9790 breaks.
As always a big fat non jim cramer like boo-yah thank you Bo (personally not a fan of cramer tho)! Appreciate you clearing this up for us. I get what you're saying. Back to Vhands for me. By the way, that tool is awesome for getting accustomed to working with price action and fibs.
"Wishful thinking dies hard." Igor T.
  • #2,954
  • Apr 11, 2008 8:32am Apr 11, 2008 8:32am
Quoting steveshutts
Thanks Bo. I think you have hit the nail on the head there with the time factor, it can really eat you alive. So with the trade i highlighted, at what point would you close the short if it did start to cllimb back up against us? Its a little new to me to not have an exact stop in place but i like th style, just take some getting used to. I know you woule be waiting for a break of 9790 so would you wait for a close above this on the 1hr and then close it?
By the way, heading down nicely now.
Basically a close above there I would close it and take the 20-30 pip loss and just wait for the next opportunity.
  • #2,955
  • Edited 2:47pm Apr 11, 2008 2:28pm | Edited 2:47pm
Hey bud i see now...would this be your new fibbs in order to see if resistance will hold...and what i see is that in order for me to start thinking long price would have to brake 9736 and then i would place a fibb to that and see if price holds support and then i would now price is going to continue up if price is beind held...I hope i am right.
Also that bearish engulfing when price made the first pull back...on the 38.2 green fibb...would that been a valid entry since it was showing us that price was holding resistance?

This is the graph..

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Also shoould i place a fibb from price 9841 to 9685
and if they do would you just look at them as resistance and see if price holds? or if price stops there and you are on a long postiong since the intraday fibb lets say get broken and price is showing support would you close your long at that fibb i am asking about if you see price give you a bearish engulfing or tweezer tops?


chart 2

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  • #2,956
  • Apr 11, 2008 6:39pm Apr 11, 2008 6:39pm
Quoting jets211990
Hey bud i see now...would this be your new fibbs in order to see if resistance will hold...and what i see is that in order for me to start thinking long price would have to brake 9736 and then i would place a fibb to that and see if price holds support and then i would now price is going to continue up if price is beind held...I hope i am right.
Also that bearish engulfing when price made the first pull back...on the 38.2 green fibb...would that been a valid entry since it was showing us that price was holding resistance?

This is the graph..

Attachment

Also shoould i place a fibb from price 9841 to 9685
and if they do would you just look at them as resistance and see if price holds? or if price stops there and you are on a long postiong since the intraday fibb lets say get broken and price is showing support would you close your long at that fibb i am asking about if you see price give you a bearish engulfing or tweezer tops?


chart 2

Attachment
The only one that matters at this point trading Intraday, is the Intraday fib of today, because you would still be looking for the next short opportunity, if it occurs it will happen at todays Intraday levels. The swing fib at this point isnt needed wait for the opening Sun/Mon action for that. A note to remember is today failed to reach its Intraday target from thursday, If it fails again Sun/Mon its time to exit shorts and make another analysis.
  • #2,957
  • Apr 11, 2008 7:11pm Apr 11, 2008 7:11pm
What do you mean by make another analysis...is that two expect price to brake those resistances since price has not reached its goals?

or what do you mean?
  • #2,958
  • Edited 8:11pm Apr 11, 2008 7:43pm | Edited 8:11pm
I hope i got this right ....This is my chart for the eur/usd...the sentiment is short since the prior bullish swing got broken and it is now testing some strong bearish resistance...if those give out then i would up date my intraday fibb... the only major supports are the orange one but i would pay attention to the orange fibbs.

I have realized that the way to play the break of the counter fibb is to go short since the intraday fibb(green one) is to short.And that is the sentiment since the prior swing from price 5810 to 5913 did not hold support to go bullish we are now looking to go short.

But if the green fibbs give out then i would swap my fibb and wait for price to come and test the fibbs again..and see if they hold in order to start thinking bullish.

This is my 1 hour chart Please with everything on it
Also you have 2 types of trades here...you can short by noticing that price met resistance or wait for the counter fibb to give out..but what you wont do is take the break of the green fibb....let me know if i am right..
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And this is my daily chart with just the daily stuff...please let me know if my chart are right.
I have no counter fibb on daily chart since they have been already pierced and we are above them.Let me know if that was a bad decision.

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I hope i have them right.
Thanks for your help again BUD
  • #2,959
  • Apr 11, 2008 8:03pm Apr 11, 2008 8:03pm
By the way would you had ever taking a trade when priced bounced on oranged fibb 38.2 from daily chart?.....

Or you stick with the intraday swing only ...?
  • #2,960
  • Apr 13, 2008 9:51am Apr 13, 2008 9:51am
Quoting jets211990
I hope i got this right ....This is my chart for the eur/usd...the sentiment is short since the prior bullish swing got broken and it is now testing some strong bearish resistance...if those give out then i would up date my intraday fibb... the only major supports are the orange one but i would pay attention to the orange fibbs.

I have realized that the way to play the break of the counter fibb is to go short since the intraday fibb(green one) is to short.And that is the sentiment since the prior swing from price 5810 to 5913 did not hold support to go bullish we are now looking to go short.

But if the green fibbs give out then i would swap my fibb and wait for price to come and test the fibbs again..and see if they hold in order to start thinking bullish.

This is my 1 hour chart Please with everything on it
Also you have 2 types of trades here...you can short by noticing that price met resistance or wait for the counter fibb to give out..but what you wont do is take the break of the green fibb....let me know if i am right..
Attachment

And this is my daily chart with just the daily stuff...please let me know if my chart are right.
I have no counter fibb on daily chart since they have been already pierced and we are above them.Let me know if that was a bad decision.

Attachment

I hope i have them right.
Thanks for your help again BUD
With the Euro price is still respecting the resistance levels from your Intraday of Thursday, From Fridays Intraday it shows price respecting the support levels creating a range the Euro must break from in order to go into a trending move. Its become a decision time for the Euro...do they want to attempt to push it higher or sell it in to a correction type move. It will take quite a bit of a correction now to actually turn the Euro into a bearish bias long term, My opinion is the short term bias has turned bearish, a break from Fridays Intraday will confirm that...too much bad news or economic reports from the US and the downward push could stop there and the risk aversion issues may return since many will seek out better or safer investments (Euro,Gold,etc..)
From your Daily chart where your measuring the uptrend shows where price will have to break in order for this move down to become a major correction and it will take a Daily close below your short level for that.
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