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We all need pivots to win..yes or not? 13 replies

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The System II (Yes with irony)

  • #121
  • Apr 11, 2008 6:33am Apr 11, 2008 6:33am
Quoting jedsman
If I'm understanding Feb right, you need to wait for the price to break above the previous high point by a few pips before taking the long.
yes, we need a break of the last swing

Peace
Peace
  • #122
  • Apr 11, 2008 6:35am Apr 11, 2008 6:35am
Quoting skyline
I like so much this thread thx Feb!
Here's my view about EURUSD M5 , any comments ?

you have a pullback formed already in my opinion...kinda deep but it might work

Peace
Peace
  • #123
  • Apr 11, 2008 6:44am Apr 11, 2008 6:44am
Quoting feb2865
yes, we need a break of the last swing

Peace
hi Feb, can you please have a look at #116 and #119, is this wrong retracement? to small?
  • #124
  • Apr 11, 2008 6:58am Apr 11, 2008 6:58am
Quoting feb2865
you have a pullback formed already in my opinion...kinda deep but it might work

Peace
Thx Feb, yes that trade didn't kick in so I entered later using this long setup with fixed tp and sl set at 20 pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #125
  • Apr 11, 2008 7:02am Apr 11, 2008 7:02am
Quoting moneda
To Feb and others,


This may be a very basic question but do we all agree on what constitutes a pullback/retracement? I am not clear on this one. How many pips does price needs to go agaisnt the swing? Is it just a matter of one candle closing establishing a higher high and a higher low or a lower high and a lower low?

Thank you
This an excellent question, moneda

I believe I mentioned before that if we have a deep pullback, chances are that the follow-thru will be a weak one.

I personally do that just bye looking at the charts, by experience. But I completely understand that, on the beginning we need to train the eyes for that.

Use the 50% level, until you get your eyes trained for the move. If it passes that line, be aware.



But here's a word of caution and please take a note of this


DON'T USE IT AS A HARD AND FAST RULE....DON'T PATRONIZE ANYTHING ON THE CHARTS OTHER THAN PRICE.


sorry for the caps


Just be aware, if there's a follow thru after a deep pullback...take the trade....tight your risk more and use discretion...but take the trade, please.

Peace
Peace
  • #126
  • Apr 11, 2008 7:08am Apr 11, 2008 7:08am
Quoting MJurban
hi Feb, can you please have a look at #116 and #119, is this wrong retracement? to small?
not necessarily. I take it even if it's small.. I do prefer a couple of bars or more, but that's a personal preference.

Don't close any trades...never..... let your setup work...if you get stopped out, there will be another chance...deal with it. Remember this is a game of probabilities.

I've been 1 tick shy of be stopped out and then the market resumes the original swing...it happened to me hundred of times.


play the odds.....

Peace
Peace
  • #127
  • Apr 11, 2008 7:20am Apr 11, 2008 7:20am
Quoting Jarret
Hi Feb,

How does the attached setup look to you?

Looked goodish to me, in at 157.90, went up 14 points, then dropped, I was stopped at 157.84 on a TS.

Cheers

look good to me!...oh well, just try to see if you can get back on board again

so if went up 14 points then your risk was 6 ticks??

that's good.....

I should say...good job Jarret!!!...you cut the loss short

Peace
Peace
  • #128
  • Apr 11, 2008 7:26am Apr 11, 2008 7:26am
Quoting feb2865
not necessarily. I take it even if it's small.. I do prefer a couple of bars or more, but that's a personal preference.

Don't close any trades...never..... let your setup work...if you get stopped out, there will be another chance...deal with it. Remember this is a game of probabilities.

I've been 1 tick shy of be stopped out and then the market resumes the original swing...it happened to me hundred of times.


play the odds.....

Peace
Feb, thanks for answer.
it is my problem , i-m afraid of the stoploss so i leave the market to early, many times.
í have to build up more confidence, stick to the stoploss can make life much more easy - i should write it in big letters infront of my PC ----
  • #129
  • Apr 11, 2008 7:32am Apr 11, 2008 7:32am
Quoting MJurban
Feb, thanks for answer.
it is my problem , i-m afraid of the stoploss so i leave the market to early, many times.
í have to build up more confidence, stick to the stoploss can make life much more easy - i should write it in big letters infront of my PC ----

I hear you

Takes time to grasp the concept

read my first post

Peace
Peace
  • #130
  • Apr 11, 2008 7:44am Apr 11, 2008 7:44am
Quoting MJurban
Feb, thanks for answer.
it is my problem , i-m afraid of the stoploss so i leave the market to early, many times.
í have to build up more confidence, stick to the stoploss can make life much more easy - i should write it in big letters infront of my PC ----
The best thing to do is use the smallest lots you can trade with. It's real money, but not enough to hurt if you lose. I have found this helps with dealing with the emotional part of trading.
  • #131
  • Apr 11, 2008 7:47am Apr 11, 2008 7:47am
Quoting jedsman
The best thing to do is use the smallest lots you can trade with. It's real money, but not enough to hurt if you lose. I have found this helps with dealing with the emotional part of trading.
I agree 100%

You guys have a broker that allow trading for pennies of a dollar...oanda???

sorry not familiar with spot forex

Peace
Peace
  • #132
  • Apr 11, 2008 8:12am Apr 11, 2008 8:12am
Feb,

First of all thank you for the insights, very valuable!

I would like to ask why you trade futures rather than spot? Are there any benefits or is it just your preference?

p.s. do you not use indicators in order to stay away from any excitment? All those colours can drive you crazy, huh!

Regards
The customer is always right!
  • #133
  • Apr 11, 2008 8:48am Apr 11, 2008 8:48am
a trade I took just some minutes ago

for those fibo's fans

I went down to 1 minute charts looking for a 10 quick ticks...kinda scalp but not quite

the logic behind the trade



1). The trade was filled at 9:07 AM. I have news coming out at 10:00 so you know that the market gets choppy before the news

2) I figure out that if I can lower the time frame to 1 minute, I will have a better view as the market was moving slow.

3) As this is not a normal cycle on the market..well news are coming out, I decided to lower my risk/ reward. That way if I lose, I'll have another chance to get back on the bus later on. Also the load was lighter.

notice how nicely that fibo trendline marked the lower highs

this why I don't want you to worship anything you put on the charts...if you had a "rule" that says

"Buy/sell only if the market retraces exactly at 50% or 61.8% fib level...other wise don't trade"

you would miss the bus

Take the market as it is......imperfect

Peace





see atachement

Peace
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Peace
  • #134
  • Edited 9:37am Apr 11, 2008 9:14am | Edited 9:37am
Quoting Pipfox
Feb,

First of all thank you for the insights, very valuable!

I would like to ask why you trade futures rather than spot? Are there any benefits or is it just your preference?

p.s. do you not use indicators in order to stay away from any excitment? All those colours can drive you crazy, huh!

Regards
good question

Futures is a zero-sum game. It's what I know as I was a floor trader back in the 80's. Zero-sum means that for any order that you place, either market, limit or stop, there must be a counter-party...another guy willing to buy or sell your position. There's no broker intervention.

I believe that's not the case for the spot forex. I personally don't like for the broker to mess-around with my fills. But there's two disadvantages in futures

1) liquidity. I mean, it's not a big deal if you're trading with 1-5 cars. But if you're a heavy loader - 50 cars or more, then you might experience periods of lack of liquidity, of course, depending on what instrument, you trade.

2) Cost per tick. Some brokers on the spot, you can trade even for pennies of a dollar. In futures...GPB/USD cost $6.25 per tick, EUR/USD cost $12.50 per tick etc.

3) In futures, you're limited only to euro and cable. Yes they have yen futures and swiss franc futures, but they're not worth it in my opinion.

In the spot forex, you have more options to trade in terms of the market itself. Also you can have more control of the leverage , in my opinion this will make or break you as a trader.

I've been looking myself to trade USD/JPY and the swissy but I am not truly convinced about the spot forex in terms of trade management. They need a lot of improvement in this area. Some of their platforms are light years behind futures platforms...

Peace
Peace
  • #135
  • Apr 11, 2008 9:26am Apr 11, 2008 9:26am
Quoting Pipfox
Feb,

First of all thank you for the insights, very valuable!

I would like to ask why you trade futures rather than spot? Are there any benefits or is it just your preference?

p.s. do you not use indicators in order to stay away from any excitment? All those colours can drive you crazy, huh!

Regards
oh I forgot the p.s

see, you have a valid point. Some people get excited when they see and indicator changing colors etc. I have mess around with indicators...a lot

I tried all combinations possible..even custom ones.

But I realized that I don't have to use them . I like to trade relax...comfortable.

I don't like to be on my toes waiting for the RSI to cross over 50...or the MACD to give me a "confirmation"

I place a stop order with all parameters already in place. Once I get a fill, that's pretty much it. The "law of probabilities" will play it's part.

Peace
Peace
  • #136
  • Apr 11, 2008 9:29am Apr 11, 2008 9:29am
Look at this chart

tell me....I mean...don't lie to me...if you don't know...please say it


do you need any "indicator" to tell you this market is choppy??

Peace
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: naked chart.jpg Size: 74 KB
Peace
  • #137
  • Apr 11, 2008 10:07am Apr 11, 2008 10:07am
He he, good call.

The Lone Ranger has hold of that one, well and truely.

Thank you Feb
The customer is always right!
  • #138
  • Apr 11, 2008 10:14am Apr 11, 2008 10:14am
Hi Feb,

Just curious. I know nothing about forex futures trading, but seeing that there are -47 for EurUsd, and -96 for GbpUsd in the future (I guess it's June). Is there any indications for the trend of our spot trading at the moment? Anything worth taking note of the futures market? Thanks.

Regards
  • #139
  • Apr 11, 2008 10:21am Apr 11, 2008 10:21am
Quoting pipal
Hi Feb,

Just curious. I know nothing about forex futures trading, but seeing that there are -47 for EurUsd, and -96 for GbpUsd in the future (I guess it's June). Is there any indications for the trend of our spot trading at the moment? Anything worth taking note of the futures market? Thanks.

Regards
-47 and -96??

Please elaborate

Peace
Peace
  • #140
  • Apr 11, 2008 10:27am Apr 11, 2008 10:27am
Quoting pipal
Hi Feb,

Just curious. I know nothing about forex futures trading, but seeing that there are -47 for EurUsd, and -96 for GbpUsd in the future (I guess it's June). Is there any indications for the trend of our spot trading at the moment? Anything worth taking note of the futures market? Thanks.

Regards
I don't have any spot forex charts here sorry!!!

Due differences in data feeds I don't thing there's anything worth it to look between spot and futures...but the swings are pretty close. The problem might lie on real time price.

Peace
Peace
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