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We all need pivots to win..yes or not? 13 replies

The System (Irony included) 1,175 replies

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The System II (Yes with irony)

  • #101
  • Apr 10, 2008 3:58pm Apr 10, 2008 3:58pm
Quoting forexdarling
being going through your educative post and it seems to be making sense.
i don't know if you have come across this e-book ICWR (impulse corrective wave retracement ) your system reminds me of it and it looks great, though haven't really tried it out thoroughly but on paper might work. got to try it out because of the way you have thrown more light to the system.


No I haven't

Seems like you're talking about elliot waves. Yes I kinda relate to that principle, the only thing is that I don't use the 4th and the 5th wave. Also the try/exit is somehow different,

Peace
Peace
  • #102
  • Apr 10, 2008 4:01pm Apr 10, 2008 4:01pm
Quoting ozziedave
Hi Feb,

Looks like price re-tested this area 3 times and on the 4th try finally broke below the re-entry line. The multiple re-tests show it's a strong support area and once broken it should go down to the next support area.
yep...that's it

very good observation

some people can mistake that for a double bottom, because the support

peace
Peace
  • #103
  • Apr 10, 2008 4:09pm Apr 10, 2008 4:09pm
Quoting forexdarling
being going through your educative post and it seems to be making sense.
i don't know if you have come across this e-book ICWR (impulse corrective wave retracement ) your system reminds me of it and it looks great, though haven't really tried it out thoroughly but on paper might work. got to try it out because of the way you have thrown more light to the system.

I found the ebook

I'll read it

Thanks

Peace
Peace
  • #104
  • Apr 10, 2008 4:32pm Apr 10, 2008 4:32pm
Here is a simple CHF short trade for 30 pips. Swing is about 40 pips then you have your pullback and then a break of the low of the swing.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chf short 100408 t1.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #105
  • Apr 10, 2008 5:06pm Apr 10, 2008 5:06pm
Good trade Ozzie!!!
Peace
  • #106
  • Apr 10, 2008 5:11pm Apr 10, 2008 5:11pm
Quoting feb2865
hahahaha...good to see U around my friend

by the way, how's the baby???

Peace
Well one son is 3 next week, and the baby isn't here yet......early June it seems.

Meanwhile, the wife is getting really, really, bored with being pregnant.

I really like the way you teach your stuff. As I evolve as a trader, I keep coming back to one undeniable truth:

Trading doesn't have to be any harder than we choose for it to be. 90% of the "difficulty" in trading is self-induced.

I really have seen major improvements since adapting the following:

1) News is for reporters. I have yet to read a economic number that told me "Buy the Yen, and then close out at 110.90". When it does, I will listen.

2) Trailing a run really IS huge. I prefer to use a two bar stop, as in trail behind by two bars. But, ONLY when it's with the overall trend. I shorted the EUR/USD today based on something I saw and liked. You better believe I had a T/P target put in with the order. You can swim against the current of a river for only so long. (Turns out I could have had an extra 20 pips, but who is counting? 106 works well enough for me.)

3) Anytime I begin to think about what's going on in the markets, it's pointless. This is pseudo-similar to #1.

4) And most importantly.....I risk 1% on each trade. I don't say 1% is perfect for all of you, but it is for me. I know, no matter what happens, 1% isn't going to bankrupt me. When I keep in mind it's only 1%, I can let a trade move a little before getting out. (Or more than likely....shaken out.) Losses happen, although not very often. ;-)

Since I have adapted #4.....my win ratio is about 75-80%. I can lose a few pips here and there.

Like you said, it's all about gaining in the long run.

For anyone starting out. Take your deposit and multiply it by 4%/month for ten years.......there's your recipe for success. (Again, it doesn't have to be 4%.....but that's only 1% a week.....which I feel is reasonable.) The biggest problem is that we were all told that Forex can give 1000% a month. It can. Just like I could win the lottery tomorrow.

More than likely, it will take 100%.

Slow, boring, steady gains. Forex isn't exciting. I am sure Feb will agree with that statement.

Ok, off the soapbox.....love the threads.

Clockwork Chris
  • #107
  • Apr 10, 2008 5:18pm Apr 10, 2008 5:18pm
Quoting ozziedave
Here is a simple CHF short trade for 30 pips. Swing is about 40 pips then you have your pullback and then a break of the low of the swing.

very clean and proper, good trading to you
  • #108
  • Apr 10, 2008 5:22pm Apr 10, 2008 5:22pm
Quoting clockwork71
Well one son is 3 next week, and the baby isn't here yet......early June it seems.

Meanwhile, the wife is getting really, really, bored with being pregnant.

I really like the way you teach your stuff. As I evolve as a trader, I keep coming back to one undeniable truth:

Trading doesn't have to be any harder than we choose for it to be. 90% of the "difficulty" in trading is self-induced.

I really have seen major improvements since adapting the following:

1) News is for reporters. I have yet to read a economic number that told me "Buy the Yen, and then close out at 110.90". When it does, I will listen.

2) Trailing a run really IS huge. I prefer to use a two bar stop, as in trail behind by two bars. But, ONLY when it's with the overall trend. I shorted the EUR/USD today based on something I saw and liked. You better believe I had a T/P target put in with the order. You can swim against the current of a river for only so long. (Turns out I could have had an extra 20 pips, but who is counting? 106 works well enough for me.)

3) Anytime I begin to think about what's going on in the markets, it's pointless. This is pseudo-similar to #1.

4) And most importantly.....I risk 1% on each trade. I don't say 1% is perfect for all of you, but it is for me. I know, no matter what happens, 1% isn't going to bankrupt me. When I keep in mind it's only 1%, I can let a trade move a little before getting out. (Or more than likely....shaken out.) Losses happen, although not very often. ;-)

Since I have adapted #4.....my win ratio is about 75-80%. I can lose a few pips here and there.

Like you said, it's all about gaining in the long run.

For anyone starting out. Take your deposit and multiply it by 4%/month for ten years.......there's your recipe for success. (Again, it doesn't have to be 4%.....but that's only 1% a week.....which I feel is reasonable.) The biggest problem is that we were all told that Forex can give 1000% a month. It can. Just like I could win the lottery tomorrow.

More than likely, it will take 100%.

Slow, boring, steady gains. Forex isn't exciting. I am sure Feb will agree with that statement.

Ok, off the soapbox.....love the threads.

Clockwork Chris
yeah, trading is boring.. and lonesome for those sitting behind a screen all day!!!


I am really impressed with all your advance and improvement!!!!!

I agree with you 100%

come around at anytime I really appreciate your input!!!

Oh man!! i though your wife was due already LOL

Peace
Peace
  • #109
  • Apr 10, 2008 5:36pm Apr 10, 2008 5:36pm
Quoting forexdarling
being going through your educative post and it seems to be making sense.
i don't know if you have come across this e-book ICWR (impulse corrective wave retracement ) your system reminds me of it and it looks great, though haven't really tried it out thoroughly but on paper might work. got to try it out because of the way you have thrown more light to the system.
Bill Poulos wrote this. He advised determining the trend by the 14 RSI on the daily and then trading the same direction on the 5 min. He too looked for 40+ pip moves followed by retracement. His recommendation was to enter after the retracement once a bar closed below the .25 (not 23.6) level. If the move closed over the .75 level he treated this move as a new market direction.
"Loss and failure are inevitable but misery is optional"
  • #110
  • Apr 11, 2008 3:03am Apr 11, 2008 3:03am
Hi Feb,

How does the attached setup look to you?

Looked goodish to me, in at 157.90, went up 14 points, then dropped, I was stopped at 157.84 on a TS.

Cheers
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Euro 1.jpg Size: 53 KB
  • #111
  • Apr 11, 2008 3:07am Apr 11, 2008 3:07am
Here is a gbp/yen short I just completed on 11/4/08. We have a nice 123 set up and a break of point 2. Entry @ 201.26 exit % 200.96 for 30 pips. Remember..don't get to greedy, especially using 5 min charts.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 110408 gj short t2.gif Size: 32 KB
  • #112
  • Apr 11, 2008 3:14am Apr 11, 2008 3:14am
Quoting Jarret
Hi Feb,

How does the attached setup look to you?

Looked goodish to me, in at 157.90, went up 14 points, then dropped, I was stopped at 157.84 on a TS.

Cheers
Jarret,

Looks like you didn't wait for any kind of pullback before you entered this position. You need to see a clear top with a pullback before you consider entering a position. Just my thoughts from a quick look at your chart.
  • #113
  • Apr 11, 2008 3:38am Apr 11, 2008 3:38am
I like so much this thread thx Feb!
Here's my view about EURUSD M5 , any comments ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.jpg Size: 92 KB
  • #114
  • Apr 11, 2008 3:44am Apr 11, 2008 3:44am
It was a pullback for my eyes, in the trade on the grey line.

Nice pin bar ....dare I say- off the 50 Fib of yesterdays high low
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pull back.jpg Size: 63 KB
  • #115
  • Apr 11, 2008 3:52am Apr 11, 2008 3:52am
Becarful though, it's near a round number, so might offer a little more resistance.
  • #116
  • Apr 11, 2008 3:58am Apr 11, 2008 3:58am
i took this eurusd long after a retrace.
what do u think about this trade, how long waiting for a stoploss or trend continuation?
Attached Image
  • #117
  • Edited 4:18am Apr 11, 2008 4:17am | Edited 4:18am
Quoting MJurban
i took this eurusd long after a retrace.
what do u think about this trade, how long waiting for a stoploss or trend continuation?
i closed the trade with 1 pip loss cause price failed to make a new high
Attached Image
  • #118
  • Apr 11, 2008 4:32am Apr 11, 2008 4:32am
Quoting MJurban
i closed the trade with 1 pip loss cause price failed to make a new high
If I'm understanding Feb right, you need to wait for the price to break above the previous high point by a few pips before taking the long.
  • #119
  • Apr 11, 2008 5:26am Apr 11, 2008 5:26am
Quoting jedsman
If I'm understanding Feb right, you need to wait for the price to break above the previous high point by a few pips before taking the long.
thats what i dit, look at the chart post #116, for me this was an retracement

the question is, at what time do one decide to close the trade if the trend seems to slow
Attached Image
  • #120
  • Apr 11, 2008 6:23am Apr 11, 2008 6:23am
To Feb and others,


This may be a very basic question but do we all agree on what constitutes a pullback/retracement? I am not clear on this one. How many pips does price needs to go agaisnt the swing? Is it just a matter of one candle closing establishing a higher high and a higher low or a lower high and a lower low?

Thank you
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