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Doji Star Journal

  • #261
  • Apr 8, 2008 10:55am Apr 8, 2008 10:55am
Quoting Fxtrader
I am trading commodities more than forex these days and i have noticed that they obey key points, trend lines, fibs. I normally use the 123 reversal pattern and it pops up a lot on commodities. On your 1hr chart the reversal started from a 123 pattern. The gold and wheat buy orders i entered last week started from a 123 pattern as well.
You'll find eur/usd is spot on with fibs as well, here's an example I posted in eur/usd on OANDA's forum on friday with regards to these. . .

http://img143.imageshack.us/img143/6100/fibext2nv1.jpg

For example, here's a nice example of a fib extention. The rally from last August / November last year stalled at 1.50 we spent the intervening time (no doubt a fib time) pinballing between 1.435 (The 38.2% Fib and 1.5. Before we broke out just over a month ago to almost reach the fib extention. Pretty impressive to my eye.

The 61.8 fib extention for the current phase of the rally takes us up to 1.69

http://img509.imageshack.us/img509/1...rabolicmm5.jpg
http://img100.imageshack.us/img100/5...pennantnp9.jpg

Above, it looks as if the market was playing pin ball with the fib levels http://www2.oanda.com/ubb/smile.gif

Infact, Fibs seem to work better with EUR/USD than they have been recently with Silver.
Good Trading
  • #262
  • Apr 8, 2008 10:59am Apr 8, 2008 10:59am
You can draw comparisons between the 123 method, DeMarkTrendline Breakouts (known as Mouteki on FF),Phillip's MACD strategy's 'high probability' Trend Continuation signals,Felicia's Cornflower retracement system and a few other successful strategies here on FF.Hell, I even wrongfully accused Felicia of copying Phillip's system once! They were so similar! These successful systems overlap lots of times.It just goes to show ,successful systems essentially look for the same thing but use a different approach or trigger.
Anything that can make recognising/reading price action easier for the person using it.

I agree with you in that I find commodity charts "easier" to read.Still a mystery to me why forex trading is so much more "difficult", for want of a better word.
  • #263
  • Apr 8, 2008 11:03am Apr 8, 2008 11:03am
Quoting Doji Star
That's a good idea.
By the way I missed a good Silver short on the 1hr about 2 hrs ago.Was in a meeting at the time.Could've been a 200 pip gain on that trade.
Sorry you missed out on that, I saw it as a sale as it was a lower top being put in (failure on $18.63) went like clockwork to the 38.2% fib. Sweeet
Good Trading.
  • #264
  • Apr 8, 2008 11:05am Apr 8, 2008 11:05am
Quoting WhipSawFX
Infact, Fibs seem to work better with EUR/USD than they have been recently with Silver.
Good Trading
I've always known there was merit in Fibs, but could never decide where to draw them from until I came across DazFx's thread recently.
Maybe good traders like Jacko and Phillip are both onto something when they tell the rest of us to concentrate on one instrument and to get to know it and get familiar with it. Jacko only ever trades the EURUSD! Phillip also started out with EU only but later on added UJ and GU.
Maybe this is the Holy Grail we've all been looking for. Actually get to 'know' the instrument you trade instead of looking for signals on 6 or 7 charts...
  • #265
  • Apr 8, 2008 11:11am Apr 8, 2008 11:11am
Quoting WhipSawFX
Sorry you missed out on that, I saw it as a sale as it was a lower top being put in (failure on $18.63) went like clockwork to the 38.2% fib. Sweeet
Good Trading.
Thanks, Whipsaw!
Like I said, we're all looking for the same thing, just peering through different 'looking glasses' if you catch my drift.
  • #266
  • Apr 8, 2008 11:37am Apr 8, 2008 11:37am
Quoting WhipSawFX
lower top
People call it different names, as long as it is profitable, i know it as 123, some people call it abc, the main point is that it shows a possible reversal in trend when price retest the high and fails forming a lower top or high top depending on trend direction
  • #267
  • Apr 8, 2008 12:16pm Apr 8, 2008 12:16pm
Quoting Doji Star
Thanks, Whipsaw!
Like I said, we're all looking for the same thing, just peering through different 'looking glasses' if you catch my drift.
Yes, the fact that TA works is a testament to that.

As for s/r and fibs not working as well in forex, I would say they do work well for the major's, and to the lesser extent the crosses.

A reason why it works less well for crosses, is simply understood, if we instead consider that for the simple reason that wheat were priced in terms of Oil, how would you expect that chart to look... ? Would TA work just as well ? Actually, it would work to some extent, as the things that make the price of oil go up, have a similar influence on Wheat. But, most of those fibs will be out the window, as are those s/r, but trends should exist and be tradable.

Ultimately, it depends on the dominant pair, in anycase thats my thinking.

In anycase, take a look at a couple of major pairs, such as aud/jpy gbp/jpy and eur/usd and see if TA really doesn't work as well ... I think you would be surprised, at how well it does work.
Good Trading
  • #268
  • Apr 8, 2008 7:58pm Apr 8, 2008 7:58pm
I found this article supporting my $25 Silver theory. The author has also given a chart to back up his case for $25.
Silver is behaving with more of a stiff backbone than gold. Sure, it took a big hit, enough to give investors a nice discount on silver additions to the portfolio. Silver displays a stronger adherence to its uptrend line. It too has rising moving averages. All the volatility seen since mid-March remarkably has not done much technical damage on the chart. A new base is being created, for a price advance into the 20s soon, like this spring. Do not be surprised if silver vaulted toward the 25 level within two or three months.
Attached Image
  • #269
  • Apr 8, 2008 8:34pm Apr 8, 2008 8:34pm
Dear FXtrader and WhipsawFX

I found a couple of posts I made in October of last year concerning the very interesting discussion we had here yesterday.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...0&postcount=13
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...9&postcount=14
PS I take back the "It doesn't trend for as long as forex does" comment in the first link.
  • #270
  • Apr 9, 2008 2:55am Apr 9, 2008 2:55am
A short forming according to my breakout 'rules'. I use the word 'rules' loosely. Nice maribozu bearish engulfment.10 minutes to close.Worried about the round number in the way=17500.
  • #271
  • Apr 9, 2008 2:58am Apr 9, 2008 2:58am
Short Silver @ 17514. 3 minutes before candle close.Opening with 2 lots. Might add another at roundabout 17520+ as I suspect there will be a slight retracement before falling further.
  • #272
  • Apr 9, 2008 3:10am Apr 9, 2008 3:10am
Quoting Doji Star
Short Silver @ 17514. 3 minutes before candle close.Opening with 2 lots. Might add another at roundabout 17520+ as I suspect there will be a slight retracement before falling further.
Opened Lot 3 @ 17500(the price on MT4 chart anyway)
Looks like price will move my way. Hope to implement trailing stop if I do get to the +80 pip level.
  • #273
  • Edited 6:18am Apr 9, 2008 3:31am | Edited 6:18am
Quoting Doji Star
Opened Lot 3 @ 17500(the price on MT4 chart anyway)
Looks like price will move my way. Hope to implement trailing stop if I do get to the +80 pip level.
Good luck I am short the Gold from yesterday, we will see what happens. Its good to make all your decision before you enter a trade, because when you are in a trade, it is not a good time to make a decision, my decisions are always wrong when i am in a trade. Before my trade i know where i will get in, when i will activate my TSL, and when i exit if i see alot of downward pressure(for a buy order).
Update - TSL hit, trade closed for an 86points profit
  • #274
  • Apr 9, 2008 10:01am Apr 9, 2008 10:01am
Biggest loss I've suffered to date ...co-incides with me upping the ante..going in with 3 lots instead of the usual 2.Wanted to kick myself for not taking the pips when they were on offer. Was up with 50 pips on each lot at one stage and for the first time I didn't implement my 40 pip safety stop.Got greedy I guess.Been on a roll,etc.
Well, I was good for it,and knew the risks. At least there won't be any margin calls for me in the near future.Can't believe I allowed one trade to eat this much into my winnings of last month!
Gotta post the good with the bad ,so here it is ,warts and all!

Lot #1:-179
Lot #2:-307
Lot #3:-414
  • #275
  • Edited 10:17am Apr 9, 2008 10:02am | Edited 10:17am
Quoting Fxtrader
Good luck I am short the Gold from yesterday, we will see what happens. Its good to make all your decision before you enter a trade, because when you are in a trade, it is not a good time to make a decision, my decisions are always wrong when i am in a trade. Before my trade i know where i will get in, when i will activate my TSL, and when i exit if i see alot of downward pressure(for a buy order).
Update - TSL hit, trade closed for an 86points profit
Glad to see one of us was profitable today. Good trading,Fxtrader.
  • #276
  • Apr 9, 2008 10:54am Apr 9, 2008 10:54am
Quoting Doji Star
I didn't implement my 40 pip safety stop. It's always good to be consistent with your system, SL is a must for all my trades.
Got greedy I guess. We all do, thats the most difficult habit to get rid off in ones trading, and even in everyday life

Lot #1:-179
Lot #2:-307
Lot #3:-414 Just stay focused, dont let these trades ruin your consistency, and do not try and revenge the market. If i have three losing trades in a week, i just stop trading for the whole week, i dont even look at charts for the whole week.
.
  • #277
  • Apr 9, 2008 12:58pm Apr 9, 2008 12:58pm
Quoting Fxtrader
.
Thanks for that Fxtrader.
You're right,CONSISTENCY IS KEY!!In the bigger scheme of things I'm actually still on track with my goals for the year.Would've liked a few more wins with 3 lots before crashing,though.On the bright side, I was playing with the house's money, but the most disappointing thing for me isthe fact that I didn't lock in those 40!! I've ALWAYS done it 'til now.Remember looking at it and thinking "Why not let it run?".
Complacency.Could be a good thing I got brought down to earth but hard!Pulling my foot off the pedals this week.
Will only allow myself one lot for all charts for the rest of the week. Self-imposed "punishment" if you will.
Another thing I do after a loss is manually backtest at least 50 trades on THAT instrument. Not really a punishment as I actually enjoy doing this!
  • #278
  • Apr 10, 2008 2:37am Apr 10, 2008 2:37am
Abandoning Silver 1hr chart for the moment as volatility has decreased. Daily range for daily chart down from 1200+ to 800 since last week.
  • #279
  • Apr 10, 2008 2:57am Apr 10, 2008 2:57am
Macd Trend Continuation forming on 4hr.
Supported by price action on lesser charts. More than 2 hours to go 'til candle close.
  • #280
  • Apr 10, 2008 3:08am Apr 10, 2008 3:08am
Waiting for break of yesterday's high with nice bullish maribozu and I'm long Gold. Good fundamental support for higher Gold close before the end of the week.
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