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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #2,581
  • Apr 9, 2008 1:40pm Apr 9, 2008 1:40pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting hendrix
Hi!

Just went through the daily charts and I looked for all previous major tops, before they reversed. Interesting enough, two of them reversed before reaching a "target" number.

16.02.2004: did not make it to 1.3000
17.6.2003: did not make it to 1.2000

So, is there a possibility, we won't see 1.6000, before going sharply down?


Only guessing, have no idea what will happen. I know that Jacko is short to medium term bearish, and there seems to be a lot of pressure for $ to strengthen, but you never know with this crazy market. And Bernake speaks again tomorrow... That alone should produce some 150+ pips...
Here's my charts

First the Daily for the bigger picture
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu d1.gif Size: 23 KB


Then the 4h
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 4h.gif Size: 29 KB


so the potential here is to drop, we see that if we paralel the 4h supporting TL it touches right at todays high, which is also the turning point of the last three attempts to go higher, price could simply move sideways until it touches the trend line and heads higher again, drop to meet the supporting TL over the next 24hrs, or break on the news and take the 1.6000. so i'm not sure, it will make some kind of retracement to around the 1.5775 +/- a few area before heading higher, i see calm before the news with gentle moves down as many will TP this before the news to protect there profits.

1.5775 is a buy point for me - small amount as i'm out at this time, long term view is still a correction to 1.5200 but this will take a few weeks.

as always i could be wrong
  • #2,582
  • Apr 9, 2008 1:46pm Apr 9, 2008 1:46pm
I was looking at the charts this morning (6:00 am Chicago) and I said to my wife this market is going to break big in the next 4-8 hours. I told her that if it actually happened it would be great for my confidence. You know,thinking I can now read the charts and all. Great it happened. Then not so great. I am short at 1.5800.

Not just because Jacko went short earlier in the week. My chart reading shows us at top side of the trading channel on the weekly charts. I thought now is the time for a bounce and I have 1.5850 to cover my butt on the top side among other reasons.

Yes I have taken a counter position, I knew the risk when I took the position. I have a wide stop so I am still in the trade. We could be serving the tasty dish of "Roasted Butt Of Archer" by this time tomorrow.

Time will tell. I think I will go walk my dog(trying to play it cool Jacko style).
It is not as easy as he makes it look. But, Jacko is better than 90% of my college teachers and gently pushes each of his students into making their own decisions. Right or wrong we learn from each one of our trades.

Jacko isn't here to wipe the snot from my nose or tears from my eyes. He just offered to teach me and I accepted. Wish me luck!
  • #2,583
  • Apr 9, 2008 2:09pm Apr 9, 2008 2:09pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Archer
I was looking at the charts this morning (6:00 am Chicago) and I said to my wife this market is going to break big in the next 4-8 hours. I told her that if it actually happened it would be great for my confidence. You know,thinking I can now read the charts and all. Great it happened. Then not so great. I am short at 1.5800.

Not just because Jacko went short earlier in the week. My chart reading shows us at top side of the trading channel on the weekly charts. I thought now is the time for a bounce and I have 1.5850 to cover my butt on the top side among other reasons.

Yes I have taken a counter position, I knew the risk when I took the position. I have a wide stop so I am still in the trade. We could be serving the tasty dish of "Roasted Butt Of Archer" by this time tomorrow.

Time will tell. I think I will go walk my dog(trying to play it cool Jacko style).
It is not as easy as he makes it look. But, Jacko is better than 90% of my college teachers and gently pushes each of his students into making their own decisions. Right or wrong we learn from each one of our trades.

Jacko isn't here to wipe the snot from my nose or tears from my eyes. He just offered to teach me and I accepted. Wish me luck!
Equaly you could be right on the button - and then - you get to drink from the cup of success, such sweet taste too.

Only tomorrow will tell us, watch the news and if the news favours long, TP the position, i expect we will be below 1.5800 before the news.
  • #2,584
  • Apr 9, 2008 2:34pm Apr 9, 2008 2:34pm
My thoughts exactly. We do think alike sometimes!
  • #2,585
  • Apr 9, 2008 2:43pm Apr 9, 2008 2:43pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Archer
My thoughts exactly. We do think alike sometimes!
well try this one then - good night all, i'm outta here till tomorrow.

ok so you could go for an early nap i suppose.

Hopefully Raz will show up with WHO and we might get the answers.
  • #2,586
  • Apr 9, 2008 3:37pm Apr 9, 2008 3:37pm
MPP just wanted to say a quick thanks for sharing your charts and analysis. I get great benefit from them that supplements the knowledge I have learnt (and am still learning) from Jacko. You seem to have a very comfortable understanding of the method which is why I look for your posts as much as Jackos now. Thanks again
Leonardo Follower
  • #2,587
  • Apr 9, 2008 3:50pm Apr 9, 2008 3:50pm
Quoting shodd
MPP just wanted to say a quick thanks for sharing your charts and analysis. I get great benefit from them that supplements the knowledge I have learnt (and am still learning) from Jacko. You seem to have a very comfortable understanding of the method which is why I look for your posts as much as Jackos now. Thanks again
Ditto!
Do or do not. There is no try. -- Yoda
  • #2,588
  • Apr 9, 2008 4:40pm Apr 9, 2008 4:40pm
The 5700 did hold the downside, but I don't want anyone thinking that I am picking Tops & Bottoms as one accused in the past as we are suppose to be trading the trend. There was a nice bounce from the 5700, but NOT enought to hit 5800 as some hoped for. I DID NOT ENTER @ THE 5700, BUT WILL ENTER ON A BOUNCE FROM THE 5800 LEVEL IF SEEN.

Many informative post seen today & each is appreciated. I don't try to critique each & every post, but simply read each & try to extract the value they might offer. Do I have all the answers, NO & NEITHER DOES ANYONE ELSE, but we can learn from each other especially from those that post constructively their views & comments. Best trades to all.

_________________
AceTrader
  • #2,589
  • Apr 9, 2008 4:58pm Apr 9, 2008 4:58pm
Quoting cecmc
I couldnt agree with you anymore. Im a buyer at 1.5700: round number, previous s/r, 50%fib from recent low and of course 3rd touch to 4h trendline/channel.

hI guys, I´m holding strong and erect my position from 1.5700. NO TP´s, NO Trailins, just a SL at break even. THIS market is goin to break upwards soon, AND BREAK HARD. The sky is the limit.

WIsh me luck

All the best
Cut losses, Ride winners, Manage Risk, Stick with it & Master it
  • #2,590
  • Apr 9, 2008 5:19pm Apr 9, 2008 5:19pm
Quote
hI guys, I´m holding strong and erect my position from 1.5700. NO TP´s, NO Trailins, just a SL at break even. THIS market is goin to break upwards soon, AND BREAK HARD. The sky is the limit.

Be careful, if you put all your eggs in one basket, than try and hold a stong, long erection without protection, it may not BREAK HARD upwards, but limp down instead.

Just some words of caution.
All I ask for is a chance to prove that money cannot make me happy.
  • #2,591
  • Apr 9, 2008 5:33pm Apr 9, 2008 5:33pm
Quoting Marsh
Be careful, if you put all your eggs in one basket, than try and hold a stong, long erection without protection, it may not BREAK HARD upwards, but limp down instead.

Just some words of caution.
ED ouch...
  • #2,592
  • Apr 9, 2008 5:53pm Apr 9, 2008 5:53pm
Althought the 5880 level has not been tested, I'm in @ 5825 for 2 lots. If 5850 fails to hold the upside then I might just add another 2 lots, but for now 2 does it. Will use 50 sl for now & no target for tp @ this time. I COULD BE WRONG & PROBABLY AM, BUT WE'LL SEE WHAT HAPPENS NEXT.

_______________
AceTrader
  • #2,593
  • Apr 9, 2008 6:01pm Apr 9, 2008 6:01pm
Cecmc

No matter what happens @ this point, you are in the money & I admire a trader that stands by their decisions. If the decision is wrong & you learn from the mistake, then your a better trader for it. NO FEAR, AS MORE UP COULD BE SEEN. THE 5900 IS COMING TO MIND AS MAYBE BEING NEXT IF 5850 GIVES, BUT I COULD BE WRONG.

_____________
AceTrader

  • #2,594
  • Apr 9, 2008 6:02pm Apr 9, 2008 6:02pm
I was wondering how everyone here is going about determineing their Fib. retracement paramenters?

Thanks
  • #2,595
  • Apr 9, 2008 6:33pm Apr 9, 2008 6:33pm
Quoting trader john
I was wondering how everyone here is going about determineing their Fib. retracement paramenters?

Thanks
you can try this
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 FiboRetracement3.mq4   16 KB | 758 downloads
Don't chase the market, Let the market come to you
  • #2,596
  • Apr 9, 2008 6:48pm Apr 9, 2008 6:48pm
Tmac,

Thank you, I tried opening it and it was computer code, I couldn't figure out how to use the thing.

Thank you for the helping
  • #2,597
  • Apr 9, 2008 6:54pm Apr 9, 2008 6:54pm
Quoting trader john
I was wondering how everyone here is going about determineing their Fib. retracement paramenters?

Thanks
I don't tend to use fib's, but if I do (just to see what number I'd get) I measure a few...from the last few bottoms to the last few tops respectively.
  • #2,598
  • Apr 9, 2008 6:59pm Apr 9, 2008 6:59pm
Quoting trader john
Tmac,

Thank you, I tried opening it and it was computer code, I couldn't figure out how to use the thing.

Thank you for the helping
place it in your indicator folder
Don't chase the market, Let the market come to you
  • #2,599
  • Apr 9, 2008 11:10pm Apr 9, 2008 11:10pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting trader john
Tmac,

Thank you, I tried opening it and it was computer code, I couldn't figure out how to use the thing.

Thank you for the helping
It's an MT4 indicator, need to be pput in the experts/indicator folder - then restart MT4 and it's in the navigator list.

Fibs are not a straight forward thing, we each have a view on were the tops and bottoms are.

you should add one to a daily and 4h chart, start with the highest point and then look for the lowest most obvious point, this will be larger on the daily

my current 50% sits at 1.5768 on 4h and 1.5200 on daily. although the 4h also offers a 1.5700 and a 1.5650ish. what we are trying to do is find points that might offer potencial support
  • #2,600
  • Edited 11:40pm Apr 9, 2008 11:36pm | Edited 11:40pm
Decided I would let my whole position ride through tomorrow's news. Stop remains at 1.5790. Intend to trail it 80 pips. The risk is only 10 pips. I decided I would rather have a full position if we make a new high than play it overly safe.

After carefully looking at the charts and seeing that a break-out to a new high will be on it's third attempt. A break-out on the third attempt (if indeed it does get to 1.5910-20) is usually a good move.

If we retreat on the news to 1.5790 and I get stopped out; I'm a buyer at 1.5700 (about 50% and round number on most recent advance) or 1.5920 (new high), whichever comes first. Both with half size positions and 100 pip stops.

That's the plan....

-Sean
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