Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

Right on with you, though I say keep it open anyway. I think we hit a major top form according to the daily picture, and it can be fine grained on H4. Same for GBPCHF I believe.

Good luck all.

I closed my position, because we're right near 201.80ish level where there is some good support on the 50 fibo level iirc, so upon the spike I'll short again I think we'll see 192 this week.

Picture on CNN's homepage

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/im...iny.dollar.jpg

AND YOU KNOW THIS MAN!!!!!!!!!

HOLLA

Gotta luv that...........

HOLLA

No problem.........

HOLLA

Money worries may hinder tax rebate spending
Some plan to save money, others say it will go to everyday bills
By Allison Linn
Senior writer
updated 4:57 p.m. ET, Fri., April. 4, 2008


Over the past year and a half, Shane Gledhill has seen the value of his home drop as his family’s gas budget and grocery tabs have risen. Meanwhile, the construction industry he works in has slowed.

So when the government announced a plan to offer Americans a tax rebate check, the 42-year-old father of two knew exactly what he would do with his money.

“We’ve got to stick that in savings because who knows what’s going to happen? “ Gledhill said. “The last thing I want to do is go out and spend it on something.”

Aiming to help stimulate an ailing U.S. economy, the government is planning to hand out tax rebates to millions of Americans, with the hope that the taxpayers' windfall will go straight into a nearby cash register. But with economic woes mounting, some Americans are feeling nervous about going on a shopping spree.

Instead of splurging on a big-screen TV or other indulgence, many say they plan to use the money to pay off debt, pay other tax bills or budget for higher expenses like food or gasoline. Others say they’d rather stash the money away in case things go from bad to worse.

That’s a gloomy scenario for those who are hoping a burst of consumer spending will help stave off a sharp economic downturn. But some economists believe that, despite their good intentions, many will change their minds once they actually have that check in their hands.

“Americans have an amazing ability for self-deception, and I have full confidence that they’re going to end up spending the money regardless of what they say they’re going to do with it,” said David Wyss, chief economist with Standard and Poor’s.

Of course, the American economy would benefit in the long term if more people actually did save the money, given that Americans at notoriously poor at saving for a rainy day. But spending the money is expected to provide some immediate relief.

“It’s not a long-term solution; it’s a short-term solution,” Wyss said.
About 117 million families are expected to get the tax rebate beginning in May. It will provide up to $600 per taxpayer, or $1200 per working couple, plus another $300 per dependent child, for Americans who meet certain income requirements.

Mark Zandi, chief economist with Moody’s Economy.com, is expecting that two-thirds of that money will be spent within six months, based on the spending habits he saw the last time Americans got a tax rebate, in 2001. He said spending could be slower this around because the rebate isn’t coming along with other tax cuts, and people also may be grappling with more mortgage debt. On the other hand, the checks will go to more lower-income families this time, and Zandi believes those families are more likely to spend the money.

“They might take the opportunity to go to the dentist and get a check-up – things that they put off because they just don’t have the cash,” he said.
For many Americans, the added cash could end up being sucked right into the gas tank, especially if gas prices drift as high as $4 per gallon this summer. The tax rebate won’t benefit the economy as much if it is spent at the pump, Zandi said, because a large chunk of the profits will go to producers overseas. But the fact that Americans have that money to spend on gas could still help because it eases people’s overall financial burdens.


“We’re just sort of cushioning the blow,” he said.

On the other hand, Zandi said the economy will be helped if people put the extra cash toward growing grocery bills. Also, those that use the money to pay down credit card debt may also inadvertently help the economy, he said, because they’ll feel more freedom to run up debt again.


The rebate comes as many Americans are already tightening their belts because of rising costs for necessities. Gledhill, who lives in the Phoenix area, said his family has already cut back on things like the cable bill as they’ve seen their discretionary income dwindle. He’s now considering taking the bus instead of driving to work, even though he figures it would add three hours of commuting time.

Jean Rampy, 62, expects that her tax rebate will just go right back into paying household expenses such as gas and groceries. An office manager for a hospice company, Rampy has recently cut back on driving, eating out and spending money on things like clothes and shoes. With the economic situation still uncertain, she couldn’t see using the money to splurge.

“If they are expecting that people are going to go out and put this back into the economy by spending at Wal-Mart or wherever, no, I don’t think so,” said Rampy, who lives in Vicksburg, Miss. “It’ll help the people who get it temporarily … with gas, with food, but only for a couple of weeks or something.”

Wyss said the tax rebate will benefit the U.S. economy the most if people spend it on items made in the United States, or take a domestic vacation. A flat-screen TV will help create jobs, he said, but those jobs may be in manufacturing plants overseas.

From that perspective, David Yockel is just what the economist ordered. The father of three from Bethesda, Md., is planning to put his tax rebate toward helping pay for a trip to Walt Disney World. Yockel, who is 43, was considering taking money out of savings to help fund the trip, and he was happy to have a little “bonus money” to spend.


“It’ll just make it much more stress-free,” he said.

Yockel said he and his wife have strived to keep credit card debt down and generally live within their means, which has helped insulate them to some degree from the current economic problems. Still, when Yockel sees his wife come home with fewer groceries and a higher bill, or watches his parents living on a fixed income amid rising prices, he admits he gets concerned.

“I worry about the country overall,” he said.

2008 MSNBC Interactive
URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23902671/

VAI MASSINHA!!!!!!
http://www.grandprix.com/jpeg/phc/ph.../massa1-lg.jpg
http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y28...id_bahrein.jpg

EU Seeks Coordinated G-7 Response to Credit Squeeze (Update1)

By Meera Louis and Simon Kennedy

April 5 (Bloomberg) -- European finance ministers will press their counterparts from the Group of Seven major industrialized nations for greater coordination in battling the credit squeeze that threatens global economic growth, according to the draft of a confidential report prepared for next week's meeting.

Central banks and governments around the world have struggled to rein in a surge in the cost of credit that began in August. Banks and securities firms have posted $232 billion in asset writedowns and credit losses stemming from the collapse of the U.S. subprime mortgage market.

``It is important to coordinate global responses, not least within the G-7, to the challenges the world economy is facing in terms of financial-market turbulence,'' according to the European document, which was discussed by euro-area finance chiefs yesterday. ``Authorities must remain vigilant to further policy responses that may be needed, in particular aimed at stemming mechanisms with a potential to amplify the effects of the turmoil,'' the paper, which was obtained by Bloomberg News, said.

The final version of the report will be presented to finance ministers and central bankers from the G-7 when they meet in Washington on April 11 to discuss the economic outlook. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said yesterday that international monetary policy makers continue to discuss possible solutions to the financial crisis.

`Bad News'
``The general sentiment is that the turmoil is not over, that there is still possible bad news in the pipeline,'' Italian Finance Minister Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Brdo.

While central banks say they are in constant communication, there has been little in the way of a uniform response beyond December's decision to auction dollars. The U.S. Federal Reserve has slashed its benchmark rate by 3 percentage points since last August, while the ECB has left its rate at a six-year high of 4 percent. Each G-7 central bank also has differed on how much money it has been willing to pump into the banking system and what collateral it is willing to accept.

In spite of the central banks injecting liquidity into markets, the cost of borrowing in euros for three months this week reached 4.7 percent, the highest since Dec. 27, according to the European Banking Federation.

Coordinated Response
``If ever there was a time to try and agree on some things and to coordinate policy to help the world economy and financial system, this is it,'' said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, New York. ``A common set of responses would benefit everyone.''

To ease the stresses in markets, the European ministers want banks to disclose their exposure to distressed assets and improve their management of risk, the document said. It warned that ``it cannot be excluded that global operating banks will face further deterioration in the credit quality of their assets, perhaps even extending to corporate loans.''

With the record prices for oil and other commodities compounding the threats to the world economy ``the risks are clearly tilted on the downside'' for global growth, the briefing document said. The International Monetary Fund said this week it cut its 2008 forecast for expansion in the world to 3.7 percent from 4.1 percent in January and called the financial crisis the worst since the Great Depression.

IMF Forecast
The IMF predicts growth of 3.7 percent globally in 2009, too, yet expects the economy of the 15 nations that share the euro to grow 1.1 percent next year after an estimated 1.3 percent in 2008, according to the European document, which is dated April 1.

``It seems that we are facing a prolonged adjustment and that the risk of a spillover into the real economy is more likely to materialize,'' the report said. European Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia said the IMF outlook was too ``pessimistic'' and that he would release his own revised forecast on April 28.

Pledging ``to take appropriate action where and when necessary,'' it said governments will pursue policies that enhance transparency of financial markets, improve measures of valuation, enforce better risk management and prod credit-rating companies to improve their reporting.

At a meeting in Brdo, Slovenia, which concludes today, European Union finance ministers and central bankers agreed to cooperate in managing market crises and to strengthen supervision after four bank bailouts and more than $77 billion of subprime- related writedowns in the region.

The accord commits national authorities to cooperate in overseeing multinational financial companies and sets common principles for handling market disruptions that spread across borders.

Further Losses
While the European G-7 document warns that ``it may take time'' for banks to discover the full extent of their subprime- related losses and that markets may face ``further episodes of excess volatility,'' it says ``the most likely scenario at this point is that calm will ultimately be restored to financial markets on a more durable basis accompanied by tighter credit conditions going forward.''

The report makes no direct mention of the dollar, whose 17 percent drop against the euro over the last year has raised concern among European governments that their exports may be hurt. In complaining that the euro area ``is bearing a larger share of the burden of the adjustment to global imbalances in the wake of the appreciation of the euro,'' it calls on China to allow an ``accelerated renminbi appreciation'' and Japan to improve its communications on inflation so as to ``move the yen back in line with fundamentals.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Simon Kennedy in Brdo, Slovenia, at [color=#0000ff][email protected][/color]; Meera Louis in Brdo, Slovenia, at [color=#0000ff][email protected][/color]
Last Updated: April 5, 2008 07:32 EDT

the baddest dunk i ever seen.

http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaab/blog/n...rn=ncaab,75208

DNA rules

dad wasn't that good

I know you guys enjoy the good old sunny weekend in Brazil...

Well... can't blame'ya

http://img.terra.com.br/i/2008/04/05/734982-6997-ga.jpg

http://img.terra.com.br/i/2008/04/05/734986-0708-ga.jpg

http://img.terra.com.br/i/2008/04/05/734984-2033-ga.jpg

This damn beach is at 700 km from my house

MASSA RULES http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y28...miley_rock.gif

quiz of the day: Where's the support?

Picked this of Aus thread

3 diffrent source with same target.

Central Bank Watch: Likelihood of 50 bps Fed Cut Rises, BOE May Cut Next Week

16:35 04/04 (CEP News) – Three of the major central banks will release interest rate decisions next week, including the Bank of Japan, European Central Bank and Bank of England. Odds are rising that the Bank of England will lower rates by 25 bps, while the ECB is still expected to keep rates firmly on hold on thursday. Meanwhile, a weaker-than-expected nonfarm payroll employment figure in the U.S. on Friday has raised the probability of a 50 bps Fed rate cut this month.


Interest rates set to be cut

Apr 6 2008
Households caught in the fall-out from the global credit crunch have been told to expect a Bank of England rate cut later this week.
City experts said it was likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates by quarter of a percentage point to 5% at its monthly meeting on Thursday, despite the impact that such a move could have on inflation.
It will be the Bank's third rate cut since December, although homeowners have struggled to benefit so far after tighter credit conditions caused nervous lenders to withdraw products and increase rates on many ranges.
Members of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee (MPC) will be concerned the current uncertain conditions could feed through into sharply lower growth in the UK economy.
Howard Archer, chief economist at Global Insight, said he expected rates to finish the year at 4.25%.
"We believe that the increased downside risks to growth stemming from tighter credit conditions, coupled with signs that the economic downturn could be deepening, will lead the MPC to cut interest rates from 5.25% to 5% on Thursday, despite the inflation pressures."


Bank of England interest rate cut to control mortgage market


by Edmund Conway

Last Updated: 2:13am BST 06/04/2008


should send GU and GJ down!! possible BS release, so price goes down on monday open and then shots higher on Thursdays no change release.

If I can't trade so why should I care?

CNBC stealing our idea

As the earnings reporting season for the first quarter kicks off this week, stock investors will be keenly assessing to what extent the slowing economy is taking a toll on Corporate America.

http://media.cnbc.com/j/CNBC/Section...ster.small.jpg

http://www.cnbc.com/id/23981525

so you finally learnt to use BWR's modified chart EA indicator then!!