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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #13,401
  • Apr 3, 2008 4:25am Apr 3, 2008 4:25am
Quoting arodriguez
ER/US: 200sma under attack... nice selling signal today. some supports have to be removed... NFP is a risk event... be careful. Long-term outlook is still bullish.
Am i missing something ?? 200 is 200 pips away from current price. Im short so great if it gets there but I would say it isn't under attack just yet. We have a supporting trend line in the way first and this may take some breaking.
  • #13,402
  • Edited 5:08am Apr 3, 2008 4:44am | Edited 5:08am
Quoting brettboz
Am i missing something ?? 200 is 200 pips away from current price. Im short so great if it gets there but I would say it isn't under attack just yet. We have a supporting trend line in the way first and this may take some breaking.
Considering daily range is already 120 pips and the average daily is around 150 - it could go to 1.382 fib extension if the previous swing low is broken strongly.

If price breaks this corrective low - will give price more room to move down to the 1.382 extension of the last 4H down swing.
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  • #13,403
  • Apr 3, 2008 7:22am Apr 3, 2008 7:22am
Quoting Morelands
Palmer,
Don't you think price is finding support at the 61 fib and the 21 MA on the EURUSD. It looks like the MACD is about to form a ZB, or close to it, for a TC. Based on the rule, when price breaks thru the 89MA it tends move back to the 21MA and then it moves on in that direction, and what I stated above it looks like a good set up. My candle doesn't close for 2 hours, 12:00 EST and would appreciate any feedback.
Raymond
Raymond:

Price would first have to close above the 61 and come back down to it without closing below if for support. As it turns out, it was rejected and fell like a rock....
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  • #13,404
  • Apr 3, 2008 7:31am Apr 3, 2008 7:31am
Quoting BenStevo
Palmer, thanks for your reply on ADP NFP news vs NFP news.

I have a general question on breakout trades, and when an entry order is no longer valid and should be deleted...

In the U/J breakout on 1 March, from what I understand, a buy order could have been placed a little above the doji on the 1hr charts that broke resistance. This would have been triggered a few candles later. Now depending on where your stop would have been, you may have been OK. But, if the stop was just beneath the doji, you would have been burnt.

At what point would you consider deleting your buy order? If the break doesn't happen within a couple of bars maybe? Or maybe in this case keeping the entry order open till it was hit a few bars later is fine - and then it just comes down to what stop loss you happen to use.

Cheers!

Ben:

Actually, I don't see anything wrong with what you did. I've read or heard somewhere that on breakouts a good idea is to put your stop just below the middle of the channel, as long as the r:r is still there. What's interesting is that on your 1hr chart, if you continued to draw that small green line a little further to the right, this was a resistance line for the next several bars. You could have re-entered on the break (close above that line) and re-couped the losses + some with that entry. Either way, I don't think you did anything wrong, price just came back on you and hit your stop.

Here's the pivot indicator I use:
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File Type: mq4 MultiplePivotsV2.mq4   26 KB | 625 downloads
  • #13,405
  • Apr 3, 2008 7:57am Apr 3, 2008 7:57am
Quoting dhalsim
I just applyed the rules and pulling the trigger,
have to trust the system and take every TC signal,
as reviewed by Phillip in monthly review,
If it become a loss, I just accept and wait another
If you have been kicked out this afternoon, look at 1h chart, eu again formed a TC signal at 16:00 Beijing time, you can also find that 4h has formed a tail, which told you that this was a good short opportunity. If Tc forms a tail, enter again for TC, I remember that all the time it success.
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #13,406
  • Apr 3, 2008 8:21am Apr 3, 2008 8:21am
My E/U short got profit stopped at 5590. Big 1H engulfing bullish candle has eaten the last 3 candles in one go.

4H may come back to re-test 21 and for another TC.
  • #13,407
  • Apr 3, 2008 8:42am Apr 3, 2008 8:42am
Look at all the pairs, dollar becomes weak again due to initial jobless claim. EU was surported by line 1 and a HL was made as well. If we use 8h chart, a pin bar would be form also. I just think that maybe I can use 50% of the pin bar 1.5562 which is also the 21ema of daily chart. ISM non-manufacture composite is going to be released in half an hour. In the same time is the enter of HL. 89ema of 4h chart would be my target, any feedback? Is this CT trade safe? Ira, Palmer, anyone else?
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Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #13,408
  • Apr 3, 2008 8:52am Apr 3, 2008 8:52am
It seems that eu still become bullish now. If 4h candle closes at this level, I shall not enter for there is not very much room to target area.
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Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #13,409
  • Apr 3, 2008 8:57am Apr 3, 2008 8:57am
Quoting saka
It seems that eu still become bullish now. If 4h candle closes at this level, I shall not enter for there is not very much room to target area.
Bullish in the ST for the moment but it's still in a downward price channel and still below all MA's. I think you are correct to not take the CT trade there is very little room before you hit the MA's and they could act as resistance. Better to wait now to see if the TC will form later.
  • #13,410
  • Edited 9:21am Apr 3, 2008 9:04am | Edited 9:21am
Quoting brettboz
Bullish in the ST for the moment but it's still in a downward price channel and still below all MA's. I think you are correct to not take the CT trade there is very little room before you hit the MA's and they could act as resistance. Better to wait now to see if the TC will form later.
You're right, ISM is better than expected, no reason to long eu now.
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #13,411
  • Apr 3, 2008 9:08am Apr 3, 2008 9:08am
If Mr. Bernanke says something good for dollar, that would be a TC in 4 hours, which can make the price to crack the suport line. But I shall go to bed now, I don't want to lose my sleep, ohhhhhh..........
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #13,412
  • Apr 3, 2008 10:06am Apr 3, 2008 10:06am
very nice
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Online Prop Firms are not the solution
  • #13,413
  • Apr 3, 2008 10:20am Apr 3, 2008 10:20am
Well today has been another roller coaster ride. Now with all the MA's bunching up whats the bet that it consolidates here and therefore takes us flat into NFP tommorow. I doubt very much that I will trade at all tommorow, especially if we start out flat with the MA's all on top of each other.
  • #13,414
  • Apr 3, 2008 10:25am Apr 3, 2008 10:25am
Quoting saka
If you have been kicked out this afternoon, look at 1h chart, eu again formed a TC signal at 16:00 Beijing time, you can also find that 4h has formed a tail, which told you that this was a good short opportunity. If Tc forms a tail, enter again for TC, I remember that all the time it success.
yes, I have seen that, I did notice the TC on 1H, so I hold the position, and after some pips gain, I go out for date, and got some pips on this trade finally.
your explain is much better than what I think, I did not look at 4H tail at that time. thanks

dhalsim
Success is the small sum of efforts, repeated day in and day out.
  • #13,415
  • Apr 3, 2008 10:35am Apr 3, 2008 10:35am
Nice TC off the 21ema on second candle. R:R was 1:1 down to the TL so the odds was OK to take it on. It then ran past the TL and made a turnaround. Now we will have to wait for some indication as to where it wants to go.
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  • #13,416
  • Apr 3, 2008 10:48am Apr 3, 2008 10:48am
comes down with a nice TL .h4 is ok and h1 made a tail to broken TL.
i was watching it in m5 and it missed my order two times WITH ONLY 1 PIIIIIIIIIP
i'll post my possible entries in m5 thread and i show a possible nice entry below in the picture
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  • #13,417
  • Apr 3, 2008 11:00am Apr 3, 2008 11:00am
The tail interested me to enter into this trade. Also, it had a nice ZB. In and out for +49 pips.
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Never enter a Trade without a STOP LOSS
  • #13,418
  • Apr 3, 2008 11:22am Apr 3, 2008 11:22am
I have been quiet lately, studying both this method and the James16 thread. I can feel myself growing as a trader, though my account does not reflect it, yet.

Okay, on with the questions.

#1) I wake up at 5 AM CST to check the 4 hour charts (it is when a 4 hour bar closes on my MT4), and then back to sleep until 8 AM. I am sick of my life, and it is time to take this trading stuff to the next level. Now, the European market opens at 2 AM my time. Would I be best off to wake up at 3 AM, even if the 4 hour bar has not closed, to get in early based on the 1H charts, and then get back up at 5 AM? What time do you USA guys get up in the middle of the night to watch the charts? What time do you get to bed?


#2) I lost out on the GBPUSD short this morning. I had reasons to not take the trade, and reasons to take the trade. I am kicking myself for not collecting 25 easy pips shorting the EURUSD. Now both have gone long, and I got stopped out on the GBPUSD. I took the trade, as it looked to be a good set-up, though it did have a tail down. I have below attached the 4H chart I used to base my decision, and I took the trade on the close of the 4H bar below the red arrow down.

Was this a bad trade, is it just a loss that I can expect, did I trade too close to news, do I need to get up earlier to trade off the 1H opening of the European session, thoughts?

Thank you!
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  • #13,419
  • Apr 3, 2008 12:56pm Apr 3, 2008 12:56pm
Quoting unlv_tj
I have been quiet lately, studying both this method and the James16 thread. I can feel myself growing as a trader, though my account does not reflect it, yet.

Okay, on with the questions.

#1) I wake up at 5 AM CST to check the 4 hour charts (it is when a 4 hour bar closes on my MT4), and then back to sleep until 8 AM. I am sick of my life, and it is time to take this trading stuff to the next level. Now, the European market opens at 2 AM my time. Would I be best off to wake up at 3 AM, even if the 4 hour bar has not closed, to get in early based on the 1H charts, and then get back up at 5 AM? What time do you USA guys get up in the middle of the night to watch the charts? What time do you get to bed?


#2) I lost out on the GBPUSD short this morning. I had reasons to not take the trade, and reasons to take the trade. I am kicking myself for not collecting 25 easy pips shorting the EURUSD. Now both have gone long, and I got stopped out on the GBPUSD. I took the trade, as it looked to be a good set-up, though it did have a tail down. I have below attached the 4H chart I used to base my decision, and I took the trade on the close of the 4H bar below the red arrow down.

Was this a bad trade, is it just a loss that I can expect, did I trade too close to news, do I need to get up earlier to trade off the 1H opening of the European session, thoughts?

Thank you!
Dear unlv tj, --You hit me where it hurts, when you say that you are sick with your life and that it is time to take your trading to the next level. You are so open in your sharing that you make it easy for someone else to see the number one problem you have to overcome before you can move on with your trading. How do I know? Because it's the daily battle that I must also fight, and that is the battle with myself.
Listen to your desperation: "Would I be best off to wake up at 3 AM ... and then get back up at 5 AM? ... I lost out on the GBPUSD short this morning. ... I am kicking myself for not collecting 25 easy pips shorting the EURUSD. Now both have gone long, and I got stopped out on the GBPUSD. ... Was this a bad trade ... just a loss that I can expect, did I trade too close to news, do I need to get up earlier to trade off the 1H opening of the European session, ...?"
The battle we have to win is with ourselves. Then we can figure out when to trade, how much to trade, etc. Think about it. If you are willing to sacrifice all of your happiness, all of your sleep in order to find the best time to enter the market, the market will simply wait until you have changed over and then change over itself. And there will be a perfect trade that you could have taken at another time. You will always feel as if you are missing out. You will continue to short the trade with the long tail down because you don't want to miss out. As you said you are growing in your technical analysis. Guess what? Your desperation will defeat you every time. Ask me how I know. --Tony
  • #13,420
  • Edited Apr 4, 2008 6:41am Apr 3, 2008 1:56pm | Edited Apr 4, 2008 6:41am
Sell USDJPY 102.33
SL: 102.73
TP1: 101.80

Reason: Evening Star, followed by a shooting star. Placed SL above wick of last 4-hour candle.

Note: It is still in a downtrend on the weekly chart, and it bounced off the 8 EMA this morning.

Edit: got out BE. Too close to NF Payroll.
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