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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #13,381
  • Apr 2, 2008 6:33pm Apr 2, 2008 6:33pm
Quoting Hookem28
BillyZ,
I'm long on the Yen from earlier today 102.20. It broke through the 200 MA, went back down to it, and continued it's upward trend. That was my reason for entry. I took initial profit at 102.70, and I set the SL below the low of the current 4H candle at 102.12.
Curious what occurred at 102.84, that signaled a buy for you.
That makes two of us . I was looking at the 15:00 (gmt) 1 hr candle which was the second green candle. MACD was pointed up and the rhythm showed a strong bull on the 1 hour as well as the 4 hour. The 14:00 candle had come down and bounced off of the 8ema. Anyone care to point out my error(s)?

At the time it looked good. Now there is a vt and the trade is a flop.

Also, I beleive I saw instructions on how to post images here. Can someone point me to that post?

Good thing I didn't risk the farm .

Thanks
  • #13,382
  • Apr 2, 2008 6:44pm Apr 2, 2008 6:44pm
Quoting JimDandy
Hello to all! I have finally been freed from my 13 hr a day 7 days a week job and can now begin to look at the currencies again.........I have really missed alot of pages of reading here and am lost as to the latest world economic news. So its like im starting over again........I'll listen to the system mp3's again and get a refresher course.......but its kind of like riding a bicycle.......once you learn it you pretty much have it in your head.......anyway hello to all!............pipip...........Jimdandy

Hey Jim! Good to have you back!

I've got a few PM's about Fib#'s and pivots and how I apply/use them.

For the general picture of things:

What I do is plot the Fib#'s on the 4hr from the most recent high to low. I plot the pivots on the 1hr to keep things clean and because the 1hr shows more bars so there is more space between the pivots, they are too close together on the 4hr.

How I use them:

As you can see on the 4hr, price has been hanging on to the 50% area for several bars. Price tested the 38 then tested the 61 and was rejected both times and settled again at the 50. Then, finally it made a run back up to the 61 (white vertical bar). On the 1hr, look how the pivot acted as a barrier that price could not close above. When the 4hr was making a run back up to the 61, look on the 1hr how it finally closed above the pivot and ran up for about 30 pips. But, I said this earlier I don't like this chart right now. I think the only pairs that have any rhythm (the start of it anyway) are the Yen pairs. The USD pairs look a little ragged right now so this might be a difficult time for trading, just my opinion. I've been spending some time on Phillip's 5min method thread. Either way, with the Fib's and pivots, for me these act as a roadmap of what price is doing, where it's been, and where it might go....in addtion to the method rules. These can be used as profit targets or s/r areas in addition to the trendlines and channels.

For an entry on the 1hr, if the bar range is too high but I feel like the move has merit for an entry, I'll plot the Fibs for that 1hr bar and try to get in on a retracement to reduce the risk. If I miss the entry, oh well. I'll wait for my next turn. I believe Phillip uses this method as well.

So, in a nutshell...that's about it. No magic formula or math, just the normal plots to help see some of the barriers that price might be running into.

Until the EU decides to do something, I'll be bouncing back and forth when I can between this thread and the 5min thread when I can.
Attached Images
  • #13,383
  • Apr 2, 2008 8:11pm Apr 2, 2008 8:11pm
Amateur question, but can the pivot points be calculated via MT4, or are they manually calculated?
  • #13,384
  • Edited 8:56pm Apr 2, 2008 8:33pm | Edited 8:56pm
Quoting ira
Roy, I had the same problem several times. I just kept downloading the file untill it was a success. Once I could download the file only after 24 hours, not sure what is the problem, maybe server is overlaoded here on FF from time to time. Just be sure you deleted the invalid file even from the basket.
Ira,
I'm still new (2 months) to the system but am beginning to have some success. I feel with all that this group has given me I should really try to help out. I see that you are discontinuing the written copy of the daily wrap up. I am beyond busy with 3 little ones and my wife and I both work, but I could assist 1 night/wk with the written copy...Friday's trade would be best in case I was not able to do it that night. Let me know if I can help.
Raymond

Oops: wrong quote
  • #13,385
  • Edited 11:07pm Apr 2, 2008 9:05pm | Edited 11:07pm
Quoting Palmer
Hey Jim! Good to have you back!

I've got a few PM's about Fib#'s and pivots and how I apply/use them.

For the general picture of things:

What I do is plot the Fib#'s on the 4hr from the most recent high to low. I plot the pivots on the 1hr to keep things clean and because the 1hr shows more bars so there is more space between the pivots, they are too close together on the 4hr.

How I use them:

Took the TC trade for reasons stated above: MACD (actually BOZ), support of 21MA and fib 61, plus tweezer top
Price 1.5643
SL 1.5681 (high of previous candle 1.5676)
TP 1.5605

As you can see on the 4hr, price has been hanging on to the 50% area for several bars. Price tested the 38 then tested the 61 and was rejected both times and settled again at the 50. Then, finally it made a run back up to the 61 (white vertical bar). On the 1hr, look how the pivot acted as a barrier that price could not close above. When the 4hr was making a run back up to the 61, look on the 1hr how it finally closed above the pivot and ran up for about 30 pips. But, I said this earlier I don't like this chart right now. I think the only pairs that have any rhythm (the start of it anyway) are the Yen pairs. The USD pairs look a little ragged right now so this might be a difficult time for trading, just my opinion. I've been spending some time on Phillip's 5min method thread. Either way, with the Fib's and pivots, for me these act as a roadmap of what price is doing, where it's been, and where it might go....in addtion to the method rules. These can be used as profit targets or s/r areas in addition to the trendlines and channels.

For an entry on the 1hr, if the bar range is too high but I feel like the move has merit for an entry, I'll plot the Fibs for that 1hr bar and try to get in on a retracement to reduce the risk. If I miss the entry, oh well. I'll wait for my next turn. I believe Phillip uses this method as well.

So, in a nutshell...that's about it. No magic formula or math, just the normal plots to help see some of the barriers that price might be running into.

Until the EU decides to do something, I'll be bouncing back and forth when I can between this thread and the 5min thread when I can.
Palmer,
Don't you think price is finding support at the 61 fib and the 21 MA on the EURUSD. It looks like the MACD is about to form a ZB, or close to it, for a TC. Based on the rule, when price breaks thru the 89MA it tends move back to the 21MA and then it moves on in that direction, and what I stated above it looks like a good set up. My candle doesn't close for 2 hours, 12:00 EST and would appreciate any feedback.
Raymond
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd040208.csv.gif Size: 44 KB
  • #13,386
  • Apr 2, 2008 10:15pm Apr 2, 2008 10:15pm
Quoting BillyZ
That makes two of us . I was looking at the 15:00 (gmt) 1 hr candle which was the second green candle. MACD was pointed up and the rhythm showed a strong bull on the 1 hour as well as the 4 hour. The 14:00 candle had come down and bounced off of the 8ema. Anyone care to point out my error(s)?

At the time it looked good. Now there is a vt and the trade is a flop.

Also, I beleive I saw instructions on how to post images here. Can someone point me to that post?

Good thing I didn't risk the farm .

Thanks
I take a momentum trade based on my emotions from time to time, and I usually end up kicking myself. Glad you didn't risk too much.
There is a paperclip icon up top next to the smiley face. Click it, then click "browse" and click on the chart you want to upload. Hit "upload", "close window" and then "submit reply."
Hope this helps.
  • #13,387
  • Apr 2, 2008 10:35pm Apr 2, 2008 10:35pm
Palmer, thanks for your reply on ADP NFP news vs NFP news.

I have a general question on breakout trades, and when an entry order is no longer valid and should be deleted...

In the U/J breakout on 1 March, from what I understand, a buy order could have been placed a little above the doji on the 1hr charts that broke resistance. This would have been triggered a few candles later. Now depending on where your stop would have been, you may have been OK. But, if the stop was just beneath the doji, you would have been burnt.

At what point would you consider deleting your buy order? If the break doesn't happen within a couple of bars maybe? Or maybe in this case keeping the entry order open till it was hit a few bars later is fine - and then it just comes down to what stop loss you happen to use.

Cheers!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,388
  • Apr 2, 2008 11:09pm Apr 2, 2008 11:09pm
Quoting Morelands
Ira,
I'm still new (2 months) to the system but am beginning to have some success. I feel with all that this group has given me I should really try to help out. I see that you are discontinuing the written copy of the daily wrap up. I am beyond busy with 3 little ones and my wife and I both work, but I could assist 1 night/wk with the written copy...Friday's trade would be best in case I was not able to do it that night. Let me know if I can help.
Raymond

Oops: wrong quote
I'll do it on Tuesday and Thursday if someone else can get the other two days.
  • #13,389
  • Edited 9:20am Apr 3, 2008 1:05am | Edited 9:20am
price break 89MA and pull back to 21 and give a TC,
enter short at 1.5625, Stoploss at 1.5662,
close 50% at TP1 1.5600,
move the other 50% stoploss to BE and hold another 50%


edit1: tired of the market, close 50% at 22pips, and move the other to BE
edit2: move SL to 1.5600, set TP2 at 1.5380, I am getting out now
edit3: back to my computer, the other 50% stop at 1.5600
total 23.5 pips gain
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 08403eurusd1.gif Size: 21 KB
Success is the small sum of efforts, repeated day in and day out.
  • #13,390
  • Apr 3, 2008 1:40am Apr 3, 2008 1:40am
Quoting dhalsim
price break 89MA and pull back to 21 and give a TC,
enter short at 1.5625, Stoploss at 1.5662,
close 50% at TP1 1.5600,
move the other 50% stoploss to BE and hold another 50%
I also took this short, Im a bit worried though as I did something I dont normally do. I took the trade 2 hours after the original signal although at the same price point the signal was given. Why is this possible bad?? Well I kind of feel that 2 hours have passed and price is still hanging around the same area it might be that it isnt destined to move as we would like this time around.

What do others generally do on missed signals ??
  • #13,391
  • Apr 3, 2008 2:14am Apr 3, 2008 2:14am
Quoting brettboz
I also took this short, Im a bit worried though as I did something I dont normally do. I took the trade 2 hours after the original signal although at the same price point the signal was given. Why is this possible bad?? Well I kind of feel that 2 hours have passed and price is still hanging around the same area it might be that it isnt destined to move as we would like this time around.

What do others generally do on missed signals ??
On my computer there was no MACD signal given. Very close though...Probably because of how the timing on candles are set. Never really looks the same as everyone else.

roy
  • #13,392
  • Apr 3, 2008 2:24am Apr 3, 2008 2:24am
Quoting roy
On my computer there was no MACD signal given. Very close though...Probably because of how the timing on candles are set. Never really looks the same as everyone else.

roy
Yes it varies by platform, Im using GMT.
  • #13,393
  • Apr 3, 2008 2:34am Apr 3, 2008 2:34am
Quoting Hookem28
I'll do it on Tuesday and Thursday if someone else can get the other two days.
Hi, just a flying visit - I'll happily do Monday & Wednesday. Thanks to Ira, Nadia, Tony & the team for their amazing dedication & commitment so far! I think the written copies sometimes get taken for granted & people have no idea how hard it is to do one. I did that transcript a couple of months ago & it took AGES, so thanks guys for what you have done & you more than deserve a break!

Welcome home JimDandy, we've missed you!

Got to go back to the real world again, but will be here for the daily wrap-ups Monday & Wednesday,

Rebecca,x.
May all your pips grow into great big fruitful trees
  • #13,394
  • Edited 2:41am Apr 3, 2008 2:34am | Edited 2:41am
There is nothing that is not possible in the university of Forex.
Price has move back to 21 and formed TC.

Entry @ 1.5640 and 1.5635
SL @ 1.5669 and 1.5667

I want to run this to 161.8 fib extension if not 200.
I am already done for the month on GBPJPY 240 already lock. I want to use this pay for this trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 19 KB
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GOOD AND EXCELLENT IS ATTENTION TO DETAILS.
  • #13,395
  • Apr 3, 2008 2:35am Apr 3, 2008 2:35am
Quoting brettboz
I also took this short, Im a bit worried though as I did something I dont normally do. I took the trade 2 hours after the original signal although at the same price point the signal was given. Why is this possible bad?? Well I kind of feel that 2 hours have passed and price is still hanging around the same area it might be that it isnt destined to move as we would like this time around.

What do others generally do on missed signals ??
I just applyed the rules and pulling the trigger,
have to trust the system and take every TC signal,
as reviewed by Phillip in monthly review,
If it become a loss, I just accept and wait another
Success is the small sum of efforts, repeated day in and day out.
  • #13,396
  • Apr 3, 2008 2:45am Apr 3, 2008 2:45am
Quoting brettboz
I also took this short, Im a bit worried though as I did something I dont normally do. I took the trade 2 hours after the original signal although at the same price point the signal was given. Why is this possible bad?? Well I kind of feel that 2 hours have passed and price is still hanging around the same area it might be that it isnt destined to move as we would like this time around.

What do others generally do on missed signals ??

I waited for a retrace and zoomed into the smaller timeframe for a bounce before entry. I perfer doing it this way - just to make sure price is turning to the downside from the smaller timeframes.

Edit1: 50% PT hit - SL at BE will trail 25pips to give a little room to move but not too much because price is stuck in a 1H corrective pattern from the previous 4H downmove.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,397
  • Apr 3, 2008 3:06am Apr 3, 2008 3:06am
Quoting maxster
I waited for a retrace and zoomed into the smaller timeframe for a bounce before entry. I perfer doing it this way - just to make sure price is turning to the downside from the smaller timeframes.

Edit1: 50% PT hit - SL at BE will trail 25pips to give a little room to move but not too much because price is stuck in a 1H corrective pattern from the previous 4H downmove.
Yes thats in fact what I did. As I arrived 2 hours late I saw the initial TC signal on the 4H and I also saw the 1H and smaller time frames had retraced. I switched to the 5min and waited for some form of signal that the retrace had ended and this came as a 5min doji at 5642 which I took. My original TP was 5604 which was hit but with spread my platform did not fill it. So I closed manually 20 pips away at 5624. I am holding the other half at BE, although will close if this hour doesnt do anything convincing.
  • #13,398
  • Apr 3, 2008 3:19am Apr 3, 2008 3:19am
Am short EU from 1.5638.

Can someone please explain to me how they use Pivot Points????

What time frame, how calculated???????
  • #13,399
  • Edited 3:42am Apr 3, 2008 3:40am | Edited 3:42am
Dear BenStevo, Morelands, Hookem28 and BagLady - thank you very much for offering help, in this case there will be no problem in doing written copies, and later maybe Ashes, Eric and Nadia will join us. The more people the easier and less work for all of us.
We have been doing written copies in turns, sometimes Phillip can post two or three mp3's on one day, so it is too much work for one person. I suggest to continue work the way we did - in turn. OldDog, me, BenStevo, Marelands, Hookem28 and Rebecca. There are no strict limits about terms, do your copy when you have free time, if there are any obstacles and you can't do your turn, just let know the next one and turn will continue. On any questions you can contact me or Tony (OldDog - the boss of our team ).

Again thank you, thank you very much for offering help - we have here a wonderful community!

PS - Tony, yours is the next one .

PSS - Nadia get well dear!
  • #13,400
  • Apr 3, 2008 4:21am Apr 3, 2008 4:21am
Quoting arodriguez
GBPUSD, NZDUSD, AUDUSD... are already below 200sma.
USDCAD... is above 200sma.
USDJPY is going to 200sma...
EURUSD... going to 200sma? why not?

just be careful on Friday (NFP)

A.
ER/US: 200sma under attack... nice selling signal today. some supports have to be removed... NFP is a risk event... be careful. Long-term outlook is still bullish.
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